Yesterday LibDemVoice published the results of the members survey carried out over the last two days, as we reported then we would be making the full results of the final question available. Below is the breakdown for each of the 42 stages, and if you are really interest you can download the ballot file to run through your favourite STV counter (mine is OpenSTV, but it’s chargable) eliminating candidates if you so wish.
The results
Counting votes using ERS97 STV. There are 55 candidates competing for 1 seats. The number of voters is 992 and there were 992 valid votes.
The bar charts below show the vote counts for each candidate in each round. Place the mouse over a bar to see the number of votes.
- Yellow — Votes carried over from the previous round.
- Green — Votes received in this round.
- Red — Votes transferred away in this round.
A candidate’s votes in a round is the sum of the yellow and green bars. Since the green and red bars represent votes being transferred, the sum of the green and red bars is the same.
The exhausted bar represents votes where the voter did not indicate a next preference and thus there were no candidates to transfer the vote to. The threshold bar (where shown) indicates the number of votes that ensures that a candidate will win a seat.
Round 1
(next)
Count of first choices. The initial quota is 496.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 2
All losing candidates are eliminated. Candidates Stephen Gilbert, Duncan Hames, Robert Smith, Andrew Stunell, Mike Thornton, David Ward, and Stephen Williams were tied when choosing candidates to eliminate. Candidate Stephen Gilbert was chosen by breaking the tie randomly. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Mike Crockart, Stephen Gilbert, David Heath, John Leech , Alan Reid , Dan Rogerson , Gordon Birtwistle, John Thurso, Mark Williams, and Simon Wright . Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 496.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 3
All losing candidates are eliminated. Candidates Duncan Hames, Robert Smith, Andrew Stunell, Mike Thornton, David Ward, and Stephen Williams were tied when choosing candidates to eliminate. Candidate Andrew Stunell was chosen by breaking the tie randomly. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Andrew Stunell. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 496.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 4
All losing candidates are eliminated. Candidates Duncan Hames, Robert Smith, Mike Thornton, David Ward, and Stephen Williams were tied when choosing candidates to eliminate. Candidate Robert Smith was chosen by breaking the tie randomly. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Robert Smith. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 495.50. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 5
All losing candidates are eliminated. Candidates Duncan Hames, Mike Thornton, David Ward, and Stephen Williams were tied when choosing candidates to eliminate. Candidate Mike Thornton was chosen by breaking the tie randomly. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Mike Thornton. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 495.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 6
All losing candidates are eliminated. Candidates Duncan Hames, David Ward, and Stephen Williams were tied when choosing candidates to eliminate. Candidate David Ward was chosen by breaking the tie randomly. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating David Ward. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 494.50. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 7
All losing candidates are eliminated. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Duncan Hames and Stephen Williams . Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 494.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 8
All losing candidates are eliminated. Candidates John Hemming, Martin Horwood, Mark Hunter, Stephen Lloyd , Greg Mulholland, Adrian Sanders , Ian Swales, Tom Brake , and Annette Brooke were tied when choosing candidates to eliminate. Candidate Annette Brooke was chosen by breaking the tie randomly. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Annette Brooke. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 494.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 9
All losing candidates are eliminated. Candidates John Hemming, Martin Horwood, Mark Hunter, Stephen Lloyd , Greg Mulholland, Adrian Sanders , Ian Swales, and Tom Brake were tied when choosing candidates to eliminate. Candidate Stephen Lloyd was chosen by breaking the tie randomly. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Stephen Lloyd . Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 493.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 10
All losing candidates are eliminated. Candidates John Hemming, Martin Horwood, Mark Hunter, Greg Mulholland, Adrian Sanders , Ian Swales, and Tom Brake were tied when choosing candidates to eliminate. Candidate Martin Horwood was chosen by breaking the tie randomly. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Martin Horwood. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 492.50. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 11
All losing candidates are eliminated. Candidates John Hemming, Mark Hunter, Greg Mulholland, Adrian Sanders , Ian Swales, and Tom Brake were tied when choosing candidates to eliminate. Candidate Mark Hunter was chosen by breaking the tie randomly. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Mark Hunter. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 492.50. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 12
All losing candidates are eliminated. Candidates John Hemming, Greg Mulholland, Adrian Sanders , Ian Swales, and Tom Brake were tied when choosing candidates to eliminate. Candidate John Hemming was chosen by breaking the tie randomly. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating John Hemming. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 492.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 13
All losing candidates are eliminated. Candidates Greg Mulholland, Adrian Sanders , Ian Swales, and Tom Brake were tied when choosing candidates to eliminate. Candidate Ian Swales was chosen by breaking the tie randomly. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Ian Swales. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 491.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 14
All losing candidates are eliminated. Candidates Greg Mulholland, Adrian Sanders , and Tom Brake were tied when choosing candidates to eliminate. Candidate Adrian Sanders was chosen by breaking the tie randomly. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Adrian Sanders . Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 490.50. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 15
All losing candidates are eliminated. Candidates Greg Mulholland and Tom Brake were tied when choosing candidates to eliminate. Candidate Tom Brake was chosen by breaking the tie randomly. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Tom Brake . Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 490.50. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 16
All losing candidates are eliminated. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Greg Mulholland. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 490.50. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 17
All losing candidates are eliminated. Candidates Andrew George, Nick Harvey, Bob Russell, Roger Williams, and Paul Burstow were tied when choosing candidates to eliminate. Candidate Paul Burstow was chosen by breaking the tie randomly. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Paul Burstow . Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 490.50. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 18
All losing candidates are eliminated. Candidates Andrew George, Nick Harvey, Bob Russell, and Roger Williams were tied when choosing candidates to eliminate. Candidate Bob Russell was chosen by breaking the tie randomly. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Bob Russell. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 490.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 19
All losing candidates are eliminated. Candidates Andrew George, Nick Harvey, and Roger Williams were tied when choosing candidates to eliminate. Candidate Andrew George was chosen by breaking the tie randomly. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Andrew George. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 489.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 20
All losing candidates are eliminated. Candidates Nick Harvey and Roger Williams were tied when choosing candidates to eliminate. Candidate Roger Williams was chosen by breaking the tie randomly. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Roger Williams. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 488.50. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 21
All losing candidates are eliminated. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Nick Harvey. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 488.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 22
All losing candidates are eliminated. Candidates Alan Beith and Menzies Campbell were tied when choosing candidates to eliminate. Candidate Alan Beith was chosen by breaking the tie randomly. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Alan Beith. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 486.50. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 23
All losing candidates are eliminated. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Menzies Campbell . Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 486.50. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 24
All losing candidates are eliminated. Candidates Don Foster , Norman Baker, and Malcolm Bruce were tied when choosing candidates to eliminate. Candidate Malcolm Bruce was chosen by breaking the tie at round 15. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Malcolm Bruce. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 486.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 25
All losing candidates are eliminated. Candidates Don Foster and Norman Baker were tied when choosing candidates to eliminate. Candidate Norman Baker was chosen by breaking the tie at round 1. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Norman Baker. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 486.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 26
All losing candidates are eliminated. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Don Foster . Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 484.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 27
All losing candidates are eliminated. Candidates Michael Moore and John Pugh were tied when choosing candidates to eliminate. Candidate Michael Moore was chosen by breaking the tie at round 16. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Michael Moore. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 484.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 28
All losing candidates are eliminated. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating John Pugh. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 482.50. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 29
All losing candidates are eliminated. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Sarah Teather. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 481.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 30
All losing candidates are eliminated. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Lorely Burt. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 481.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 31
All losing candidates are eliminated. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Jenny Willott . Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 481.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 32
All losing candidates are eliminated. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Tessa Munt. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 479.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 33
All losing candidates are eliminated. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Jeremy Browne. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 478.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 34
All losing candidates are eliminated. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Simon Hughes. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 474.50. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 35
All losing candidates are eliminated. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Danny Alexander . Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 471.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 36
All losing candidates are eliminated. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Norman Lamb. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 467.50. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 37
All losing candidates are eliminated. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Julian Huppert. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 464.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 38
All losing candidates are eliminated. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating David Laws. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 459.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 39
All losing candidates are eliminated. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Ed Davey . Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 453.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 40
All losing candidates are eliminated. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Alistair Carmichael . Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 446.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 41
All losing candidates are eliminated. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Steve Webb. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 428.00. No candidates have surplus votes so candidates will be eliminated and their votes transferred for the next round.
Round 42
(prev)
All losing candidates are eliminated. Count after substage 1 of 1 of eliminating Lynne Featherstone, Charles Kennedy, and Jo Swinson. Transferred votes with value 1.00. Since no candidate has been elected, the quota is reduced to 380.50. Candidate Tim Farron has reached the threshold and is elected.
Winners
Winner is Tim Farron.
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21 Comments
Phew!
I have been a member of the ERS since 1975 but I still find such analysis fascinating but I also like Morris Dancing so draw your own conclusions.
Leaving aside the disgraceful misrepresentation of the results of this survey in Mr Tall’s headlines —there are some interesting snippets of information that shout out.
For example, what has happened to all the feminists in LDV ?
The lack of support for a woman leader is not encouraging even though there is a very obvious candidate.
Hate to be an election wonk but STV for a single seat is AV.
Stephen Glenn
formerly Northern Ireland Coordinator Yes to Fairer Votes 😉
I think this basically shows the damage that this kind of counting system can do in terms of alienating an electorate. The final winner was FPTP . The only function of the intervening stages was to make sure many electors ended up not knowing who they had effectively voted for. Not good for democracy at all.
I’m a bit confused with the final stage, why are 3 candidates eliminated at once?
But YAY at Jo Swinson coming 3rd! (I think?)
The interesting thing is that the top five are different to how Stephen presented it, including Jo Swinson and not Steve Webb.
@ James Harrison,
You would eliminate all three because, even if their votes were added together, they’d still have the least votes of the remaining candidates.
The Party’s distraction from the real world – as a result of trying to establish coalition politics as a permanent feature in the UK [the only explanation I can find for the leaderships actions] is highlighted by this article by George Monbiot in the Guardian:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/27/if-we-cant-change-economic-system-our-number-is-up
Perhaps, the computing power used for this LDV article would have been better applied to the question he opens with:
“Let us imagine that in 3030BC the total possessions of the people of Egypt filled one cubic metre. Let us propose that these possessions grew by 4.5% a year. How big would that stash have been by the Battle of Actium in 30BC? This is the calculation performed by the investment banker Jeremy Grantham”
The important issue of our time is ‘What should capitalism do?’ [see BBC website]. Capitalism relies on continued growth – which as GM’s article shows is impossible – it also creates a huge gap in wealth between the rich and poor which has been greatly magnified by the global free market.
What is the Party’s view and policy on this immense issue? Or has it not been considered because the Party’s leadership’s time and energy has been consumed with how to further their own political careers?
@james harrison, the question over third is interesting. The one result it is not is looking at who was last to be eliminated. If you use the method the party use for their Euro list and recount the election for 2 winners, and the 3 winners you end up with Steve Webb. But then the position for leader isn’t a team of 3. The other method would be to eliminate Tim and Vince and rerun the election. This in theory gives you the result if both refused to stand, with Lynn Featherstone winning.
@michael this is a similar reason why the results are different to what Stephen published yesterday, instead of looking at each of the stages we just combined the high preferences and weighted them equally. Not the most scientific, but would count transfers from the top two which you don’t see here, and it’s quick in excel.
What has happened to all the feminists? Still here! Voted for Jo Swinson and then gave No Further Preferences (primarily as it is rather difficult to do so on iPhone!)
Hannah – I had similar problems on my iphone, and at first couldn’t even drag and drop.
What happened to all the feminists? Still here – I voted for Lorely Burt as well as a couple of others.
@ Richard Dean
STV rarely changes the order. It only happens if the voting is close.
@ Ryan Cullen
Thank you for the explanation. Now I know why Stephen’s method is strange.
Jo Swinson is still young and will be the leader after next.
David – if she can keep onto her seat perhaps
David Evershed 28th May ’14 – 10:18am
Jo Swinson is still young and will be the leader after next.
Leader after next?
When will that be 2030? A youthful fifty year old Jo Swinson will no doubt be thrilled at the prospect of becoming leader one hundred years after women got the vote.
Is it possible to distinguish the people who got 0 and 1 first preferences?
It is all a bit random, who will survive the next GE. The only good news is Danny Alexander is out, if he had survived I would have resigned.
‘What has happened to all the feminists in LDV ?’
The STV/AV system hides the fact that my #1 candidate was in the top two but my next 2 candidates were female.
Massively depends on who survives the GE though as I can’t see there being 55 parliamentary candidates should NC no longer be leader.
All those supporting Jo Swinson, she won’t get elected in 2015. Even if there had been no catastrophic loss of lib dem votes since 2010, she still wouldn’t get elected, her majority has been steadily declining since she was first elected in favour of labour. A swing of 2% or so from Lib Dem to Labour will see her lose her seat, and that is almost certain to happen. The Conservatives and SNP aren’t even close.
It’s a shame. Perhaps there’s a safe seat somewhere else for her in time?
I didn’t put Jo Swinson forward myself because of the way she voted on tuition fees, but she probably would save her seat (and I suspect many others) if she were leader going into the next general election.
The two Lib Dems who to my my mind have dealt best with the tuition fees issue are:
– Norman Lamb (who was put up to defend the decision on Question Time immediately after the decision in December 2010) and
– Tim Farron (who spoke on Any Questions after voting against).
It is worth watching/listening to their performances again.