There were only two principal council by-elections this week. The very good news is there were Lib Dem candidates in both of them, and both achieved positive results that moved the Lib Dems forward in the ward. So well done and thank you to everyone involved.
We start in the East Midlands on Derbyshire County Council where our candidate Rachel Allen achieved an impressive result in Long Eaton ward – increasing the Lib Dem vote share by 5% and jumping into 3rd place. Well done to Rachel and the team in Derbyshire! Labour gained the seat from the Conservatives.
Derbyshire CC, Long Eaton
Labour: 1104 (51.1%, +15.1%)
Conservative: 723 (33.5%, -16.5%)
Liberal Democrat (Rachel Allen): 239 (11.1%, +5.1%)
Green: 94 (4.4%, -1.6%)
Next we move over to the West Midlands to Sandwell MBC and Wednesbury South ward. Thank you to Manjit Singh Lall, for not only standing and making sure there was a Lib Dem on the ballot paper, but also finishing an impressive 3rd out of 5 candidates. This is the first time we had stood in the ward since a by-election in October 2009! Finishing so high up is a great achievements and it just goes to show the importance of always standing a candidate!
Sandwell MBC, Wednesbury South
Labour: 854 (51.3%, -6.3%)
Conservative: 654 [39.3%, -3.1%]
Liberal Democrat (Manjit Singh Lall): 77 (4.6%, from nowhere)
Green: 56 (3.4%, from nowhere)
TUSC: 23 (1.3%, from nowhere)
A full summary of all results can be found on the ALDC by-elections page here.
* Charles Quinn is Campaigns Organiser for ALDC and a local councillor in Hull.
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On the Polling front, the Tories have had a boost of about 3% as a result of dropping Truss, a third of that came from us, pushing our average down to 9%. I don’t think we should worry too much about these changes – the big factor in how many MPs we get will be Tactical Voting.
The overall picture is –
Lab average 52%
Con 24%
LD 9%
I’m sorry to say this, and I mean no disrespect to the candidates concerned, but I would advise Charles Quinn to adopt a more realistic description to the outcome of by-election results such as these.
Here’s my monthly report giving a longer term view for the last fifty local by-elections. The Conservatives have the highest vote share for the first time since April, showing that they are performing better in local by-elections than in the opinion polls. They are however still losing seats.
Vote share: (The equivalent data for the fifty by-elections up to the end of September is given in brackets).
Conservatives 32.4% (31.6%)
Labour 30.5% (34.0%)
Liberal Democrats 19.0% (16.7%)
Greens 8.1% (6.6%)
Others 10.1% (10.4%)
Gains and losses are:
Labour: Net gain of four: 9 gains, 9 held, 5 lost
Independents: Net gain of two: 4 gains, 0 held, 2 lost
Greens: Net gain of two: 3 gains, 0 held, 1 lost
Lib Dems: No change: 2 gains, 5 held, 2 lost
Plaid Cymru: No change: 1 gain, 2 held, 0 lost
Conservatives: Net loss of nine: 5 gains, 11 held, 14 lost
Labour won 18 seats, Conservatives 16, Liberal Democrats 7, Independents 4, Greens 3, Plaid Cymru 2
This data is for the most recent 50 by-elections in England & Wales (21st July to 27th October). Parish/Town councils are not included. Seats won adds up to 51 because of a double election in one ward.
I believe new understanding will have to be reached with the voters for the next election whenever.
Perhaps, more involvement with other Parties, not simply making numbers but finding a way of working together.
More open discussion on the problems we have.
We do need a more logical House of Lords, not just a title given as a repayment for funding.