Author Archives: Paul Reynolds

Opinion: We await the lessons of Iraq while new conflicts loom

It is ten years this week since I agreed to act as lead independent political and governance adviser in Iraq, primarily in the British-controlled Southern Provinces – despite my known anti-war views. It was a harrowing experience, risking the ultimate on a daily basis, appointing directly the first regional government in Basra by way of negotiations with largely hostile tribal, political and religious groups, and then working on other problems.

There has been much reflection in the media in the last few days over the failures of the conflict, its illegality, and lessons for the future, notwithstanding the absence, as yet,  …

Posted in Europe / International and Op-eds | Tagged and | 4 Comments

Opinion: We shouldn’t be shy about political failure over the economy

Last week was, behind the scenes, an important one for the future of UK economic reforms. Four reports were published which were, one might say, bang on for the new mantra of ‘re-balancing the economy’.

The first was Lord Heseltine’s report on the role and methods of the UK government in ‘achieving’ economic growth. The other three were reviews conducted via the Bank of England in response to criticisms of its handling of the financial crisis – specifically its bailouts, and its evident surprise in 2007 that much of the UK banking system would collapse without such bailouts.

The Heseltine report was …

Posted in News | 1 Comment

Opinion: The importance of party unity over the economy

There has been a rise in factionalism across the Liberal Democrats during their time in the Coalition Government – with the Liberal Left, Social Liberal Forum, Liberal Reform and other groups, all promoting their different perspectives. At Party Conference a left/right divide over economics and fiscal policy was very noticeable.

My thesis is that this divide is a serious one which is widening, not narrowing, and without measures to halt the fragmentation,

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged and | 127 Comments

Opinion: Understanding the housing policy buzz

It has been widely suggested that a government-engineered housebuilding boom may end the recession and bring electoral success to the Tories or LibDems in 2015 (depending on who gets the credit for it). Experts have been scrambling to answer the question of why there is such a shortage of housing, what the obstacles to housebuilding really are.

The Coalition government has so far focused on schemes to help first time buyers and provide housebuilders with finance. These approaches tend to assume that the major obstacle to expanded housebuilding is lack of loan finance due to a banking system still in …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged and | 79 Comments

Opinion: Should we be selling state assets to reduce debt and create jobs?

One of the unexpected by-products of the controversial privatisations of the 1980s was the discovery of shockingly poor real estate management by state bodies – a rare glimpse of a problem only brought to the surface when the need for proper balance sheets arose.

UK government departments and agencies have since been shown to exhibit appalling asset management, as any sweep through Public Accounts Committee (PAC) or National Audit Office (NAO) reports will demonstrate – stories of unused land & buildings, ‘forgotten’ landholdings, leases on punitive terms, opaque sale of land at below market prices. Government departments also own very large …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , and | 6 Comments

Opinion: ‘Economic growth you can believe in’ – towards The British Growth Model.

Economic growth still eludes the Coalition. The development of a convincing analysis and programme for (fiscally sustainable) growth is essential for the second half of the Coalition’s life up to 2015. The Lib Dems must take a lead role in developing it.

Before the economic crisis started in 2007 the signs of ‘systemic financial sector failure’ were all around us. Few spotted them, however. Several simplistic economic tenets have since been jettisoned, as politicians have learned about the economic concept of ‘systemic financial failure’.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged and | 9 Comments

Opinion: Time to move on from the sterile debate based on misinterpretations of Keynes and Smith

Is Europe, including the UK, destined to drown in a sea of irreconcilable debate over austerity versus growth, whilst the economic answers watch despairing from the shore ?

It may well be so. The election in France of President Hollande, and the success of anti-austerity parties and groups, seems to point that way.

There is no middle ground here. Only a different way of looking at the problem.

To get there however, I first wish to take you back, dear reader, to the mid-1970s when political criticisms of Keynesian demand …

Posted in Op-eds | 11 Comments

Opinion: the undignified spectacle at the G8

Imagine the scene. It’s a dirty whitewashed three-storey government building in the capital city, surrounded by high walls with US helicopters parked around. Inside sit several US generals and two Europeans, in the dusty heat. The war they are there to discuss is secretly assumed to go on for 25 years. They all know they cannot win it despite superior air power and unlimited cash. They had all given it their best shot with use of terrible weapons. Neighbouring countries have been mercilessly bombed, and ushering in governments very unfriendly to the US and the West.

It was time to find …

Posted in Europe / International and Op-eds | Tagged | 3 Comments

Opinion: Pupil Premium. Extend the concept?

The Pupil Premium (PP) is great politics. As a way of increasing funding for schools with more pupils from poorer backgrounds, with all the incentives that implies, is has laudable political features. It contrasts us well as ‘pro-poor’ relative to the Conservatives. It is a kind of remedy for the ‘student fees’ debacle. And it is simple – easy to understand and to implement.

It is worth having a closer look at its features and context. Are there any broader lessons for the Lib Dems?

First, what is it? In effect PP is an additional dimension to the way that central government …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , and | 10 Comments

Opinion: A bad election result – what now ?

The Liberal Democrats took another slap round the chops from the electorate on the May 3rd local elections. Yes, there were a few bright spots, especially those ably pointed out by Jeremy Browne MP, but the overall picture was still grim.

Of course it was not unexpected, and neither has the leadership’s response been – hold the course, reiterate what we have achieved and will achieve, compare our policy successes with those of the Conservatives, and emphasise that it was Labour who got us into the financial mess we are in. And so on. All good stuff, and well executed. …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged and | 26 Comments

Opinion: are we participants in ‘elective dictatorship’ ?

A formula. Politicians who are weak, plus ‘Sir Humphreys’ who are strong, equals elective dictatorship.

It was Tony Blair who introduced the idea to the British public of politicians who see themselves primarily as spokespeople for the decisions and interests of officials. With Blair and his New Labour concept, it became more obvious that there was a new class of ‘professional’ career politician – seeing their role primarily as spinning-for-the-state and controlling public opinion.

A little-noticed last phrase in a BBC news item last week may be another symptom of a weakening democratic system of elected politicians – those who used …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged and | 15 Comments

Opinion: subtexts rule! (or, why the subtexts of the budget and new roadbuilding plans are more important than the headlines)

This last week has demonstrated that a sailing ship without a destination will… well… just drift with the wind.

During this last budget week the Tories, under pressure from their backbenchers, reduced the 50% rate of tax for higher earners. Under the principle of Collective Cabinet Responsibility, Lib Dem ministers defended the change, implying that this concession has been granted in return for broader anti-avoidance tax measures for the better off, and the next step in the reduction in the number of lower earners paying income tax. BIS Minister Vince Cable weighed in dutifully with facts and figures showing that the …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , and | 3 Comments

Opinion: No economic growth? Here’s what to do

To summarise the current UK position, ‘demand management’ is out (no money left and anyway it didn’t work), so growth must come from supply-side measures (excluding subsidies or protectionism), and from ‘natural’ private sector growth (born of financial stability and debt reduction).

With the peculiar separation in the UK which has evolved between the ‘real economy’ and the civil service, media & political elites, this has left the political system scratching its head over how to achieve ‘fiscally sustainable quality growth’. The result has been a series of ad-hoc programmes – some designed to substitute for an ailing banking sector (growth funds, loan guarantees), some …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 5 Comments

Opinion: Memo to Jeremy Browne MP

Dear Jeremy,

Thank you very much for your typically robust performance on BBC TV’s Question Time last night. However I wish to counsel you against using the prospect of war with Iran as a vehicle to demonstrate your resolve, and the Party’s new-found ‘establishment’ credentials. Your political future, and maybe even your personal freedom, are at stake here….

In the debate you not only expressed your support for blockade-type unilateral sanctions, that do not have UN support, but also you gave the distinct impression that you were in favour of the UK joining a major war against Iran.

The recent rise …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , and | 11 Comments

Opinion: War with Iran? Where’s the scrutiny

One of the great benefits of democracy over totalitarianism is its ability to criticize openly and scrutinize the major decisions of government. If weight of public and political opinion is against a particular decision, there are inevitably dissenters within the machinery of government. Whilst this doesn’t prevent damaging and foolhardy decisions from being made, it does strengthen the hand of these dissenters within the government hierarchy. This usually has the effect of limiting the damage, and speeding up both the reversal of the decision as well as the learning of lessons.

This was apparent in the case of the Iraq war. …

Posted in Europe / International and Op-eds | Tagged | 9 Comments

Opinion: Cameron – a sorry tale born of inexperience

One of the problems with major European politico-economic events, such as the UK veto on fiscal measures wielded by PM David Cameron last weekend, is that it is hard to unravel what actually happened. As is often the case, we have a German view, a French view, a UK view, and then a European Commission and an European Central Bank view. Each slant is coloured by anonymous briefings and insider leaks.

The UK Conservative Party view, well spun in the Daily Telegraph, is that it is all the fault of the French and, to an extent, the Germans.

The UK line seems …

Posted in Europe / International and Op-eds | Tagged , , and | 10 Comments

Opinion: European Liberal Democrat Parties vote against war with Iran

At the 2011 Annual Congress of the European Liberal Democratic and Reform (ELDR) parties in Palermo last week, a major initiative from the UK Lib Dems was the successful tabling of an emergency resolution on the growing likelihood of war with Iran. Media and intelligence reports have described the ‘planned’ action as a multi-pronged attack on Iran by the United States and Israel, with military support from the United Kingdom and Canada. In Palermo, the UK Lib Dem resolution against the war, and against European involvement, was passed with a large majority. The ELDR resolution also condemned Iran for not …

Posted in Europe / International and Op-eds | Tagged , and | 4 Comments

Opinion: Subtly different

The Liberal Democrat Autumn Conference this year was subtly different from all others I have attended.

Being part of the Coalition of course meant a larger UK and international press contingent, and a greater diplomatic representation from around the globe. Lib Dem ministers talked of the problems of persuading their Conservative colleagues of the benefits of key Lib Dem policies and approaches, as well as the more general problems of working with the slippery inflexibilities of government administration.

However by far the more significant difference was for me something unseen, almost unconscious. It affected every conversation, every fringe meeting, and …

Posted in Conference and Op-eds | Tagged and | Leave a comment

Opinion: The Charge of the Lib Dem Brigade

There’s a by-election! Chaaaaarge! This pretty much sums up Lib Dem strategy in Crewe… or is it tactics masking as strategy? And if there are any voices in the party who think our blind rush to by-elections is as mad as the Charge of the Light Brigade, I have news for you. It’s the only strategy we have.

Tactical voting is our ‘strategy’ even if the circumstances don’t suit it – for example, if we are third in polling data and the main strong challenger is not us! In Crewe our message was, err… ‘Vote for us because we can….ummm……win’. After we came third, our main pronouncements were, in effect, ‘Hooray, Labour got a pasting because it increased taxes on the poor,’ and, at the same time, ‘People voted Tory as a protest but they don’t want a Tory government’. To describe this as unclear for the public and limp as a position (whether deliberate or not) would be euphemistic.

What’s worse is… well… let me put this as a question: what percentage of the voting public now identifies us with which policies? That is a more important question than what our main ‘headline’ policies actually are.

Tactical voting as an approach can help us in some circumstances, even in a general election, but it has come to dominate. Some might say it filled a nearly-empty space. Blind Charges of the Lib Dem Brigade need to be stopped, however. This will force us to face an uncomfortable truth. At the root of the ‘strategy deficit’ are the fragmented policy development and implementation processes across the party. By this I mean the actual, not theoretical, system.

Posted in Op-eds and Party policy and internal matters | 42 Comments
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