The relationship between the United States and Pakistan has undergone significant shifts over the decades, from being close allies during the Cold War to the current state of growing estrangement. The US’s recent sanctions on Pakistan’s ballistic missile programme highlight this growing divide. These sanctions reflect not only immediate concerns about nuclear proliferation but also broader challenges in the US-Pakistan relationship, shaped by history, strategic divergences, and emerging global alliances. Yet, losing Pakistan as an ally could have serious strategic implications, especially given the strength and professionalism of the Pakistan Army compared to other militaries in the Muslim world.

For much of the 20th century, Pakistan was a key ally of the United States. During the Cold War, Pakistan’s alignment with the US was solidified through its participation in SEATO and CENTO, military alliances aimed at containing Soviet influence in Asia and the Middle East. This relationship deepened during the Afghan-Soviet War in the 1980s when Pakistan, under General Zia-ul-Haq, became a frontline state in resisting Soviet expansionism. Billions of dollars in military and economic aid flowed from the US to Pakistan, funding Mujahideen fighters and solidifying Pakistan’s role as a critical partner. However, the fallout from this era, including the rise of radical militancy and instability, began to test the alliance.

The 1990s marked the first major divergence. Pakistan’s covert nuclear weapons programme, led by Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan, became a source of contention. The US imposed sanctions under the Pressler Amendment, cutting off military and economic aid. While strategic priorities during the Afghan War had overshadowed concerns about Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions, the end of the Cold War left little reason for the US to overlook these issues. Pakistan’s nuclear tests in 1998 further isolated it, as the US strongly opposed proliferation in South Asia.

Post-9/11, the US-Pakistan partnership was revived temporarily. Pakistan became a crucial ally in the War on Terror, allowing US forces access to its airspace and providing intelligence to target Al-Qaeda and Taliban operatives. Yet, this renewed alliance was fraught with mistrust. The US accused Pakistan’s military and intelligence agency, the ISI, of maintaining ties with Taliban factions while publicly supporting the American-led war. Drone strikes in Pakistan’s tribal areas, though targeting militants, caused widespread civilian casualties and fuelled anti-American sentiment.

The killing of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad in 2011, without informing Pakistani authorities, symbolised the deep mistrust between the two nations. Pakistan’s perceived duplicity in harbouring militants led to growing frustration in Washington, and aid began to dwindle. The transactional nature of the relationship, where Pakistan sought financial and military support while the US demanded counterterrorism results, became increasingly untenable.

However, what often gets overlooked in these debates is the strength and strategic importance of Pakistan’s military. The Pakistan Army is widely regarded as one of the most professional and well-trained armed forces among Muslim-majority nations. It boasts advanced operational capabilities, nuclear deterrence, and a history of successfully managing complex conflicts. Unlike many other Muslim countries, such as Iran, whose military is heavily reliant on asymmetrical tactics and regional proxies like Hezbollah, the Pakistan Army operates as a conventional force with significant modern warfare expertise. Its long-standing doctrine of professionalism and its strategic positioning make it a formidable force in the region.

Pakistan’s military is also a key player in United Nations peacekeeping missions, consistently ranking among the largest contributors of troops. This record of international engagement underscores its credibility and professionalism compared to many other Muslim-majority countries whose military forces are either underdeveloped or heavily politicised. Given these capabilities, Pakistan stands out as a potential stabilising force in an otherwise volatile region.

More recently, Pakistan’s growing alignment with China has fundamentally shifted the geopolitical dynamics. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a $62 billion initiative under China’s Belt and Road Initiative, has cemented Pakistan’s economic dependence on Beijing. Militarily, Pakistan now relies on Chinese technology for its defence needs, further distancing itself from the US. This strategic pivot is seen as a direct challenge to US interests in South Asia, where Washington seeks to counter China’s growing influence by strengthening ties with India.

The US’s decision to impose sanctions on Pakistan’s National Defence Complex and other entities involved in its missile programme underscores these tensions. Washington has long expressed concerns about Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, particularly the risk of proliferation to rogue states or non-state actors. The Shaheen missile series, capable of carrying nuclear warheads, highlights Pakistan’s advancing capabilities, which the US views as destabilising for regional security. In response, Pakistan has criticised the sanctions as biased and indicative of American double standards, especially given Washington’s growing closeness with India.

From a strategic perspective, sidelining Pakistan entirely could be a mistake for the US. Despite the challenges, Pakistan’s geographical location, military strength, and influence in the Muslim world make it a valuable partner. At a time when the US faces significant challenges from China and Russia, maintaining a working relationship with Pakistan could help secure American interests in South Asia and the broader Islamic world. Pakistan’s army remains one of the few military forces in the region capable of counterbalancing regional threats like Iran or ensuring stability in Afghanistan, where the Taliban’s resurgence has complicated American objectives.

In conclusion, America’s relationship with Pakistan has deteriorated due to diverging strategic interests, mutual mistrust, and Pakistan’s growing reliance on China. While the US once viewed Pakistan as an indispensable ally, it now sees Islamabad as a challenge to its regional and global objectives. However, ignoring Pakistan’s military strength and strategic significance in favour of sanctions and isolation may prove short-sighted. A recalibrated approach that recognises Pakistan’s importance and seeks to rebuild trust could serve both nations better in an increasingly multipolar world.

* Mo Waqas is Chair of the Lib Dem’s Stockton branch and was the PPC for Middlesbrough and Thornaby East.