The Gaza War has escalated to become the Middle East war and Israel is winning – for now.
But the problem is that the Israeli government’s strategy is based entirely on total military victory over Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and their backer Iran.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – pushed by his ultra-orthodox allies – has left no room for political compromise or any consideration of the wider consequences.
At the UN General Assembly this week, the Israeli Prime Minister declared: “There is no place” In the Middle East that Israel’s “long arm cannot reach.” He then left the chamber to make a phone call ordering the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. He and a large slice of Hezbollah’s senior command structure were dead within the hour.
Shortly afterwards, Israel launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon.
Iran could be restrained no longer. They were being humiliated. Tehran launched the largest ever missile attack on Tel Aviv. Thanks to Israel’s iron dome and American and British jets, only a handful of the missiles broke through. Netanyahu responded by pronouncing: “Iran made a big mistake…and it will pay for it.”
How will Israel make Iran pay for their attack? What will be America’s response? How about Russia, China and the Arab states? What are the likely consequences of what appears to be the start of a Middle East war?
First of all, we should examine the role of Hezbollah in the context of the wider relationships of the Middle East. Hezbollah is, first and foremost a creature of Iran. Its primary purpose is to act as a deterrent defensive shield against a threatened Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Its estimated 45,000-strong military force and 100,000-plus missiles were thought to be enough to keep Israel off balance and occupied but not nearly enough to invade the Jewish state and defeat it in a proper war.
But even as a defensive shield, Hezbollah has been weakening in recent years. Lebanon’s multiplying political and economic problems have been largely blamed at the party’s insistence of working as a state within a state while at the same time attempting to control the legitimate Lebanese political apparatus. Hezbollah is unpopular with the Lebanese people.
Then there are the missile attacks it has launched on northern Israel since 8 October. It may have started with 100,000 rockets and drones, but military analysts believe that at least half of Hezbollah’s arsenal has been either fired or destroyed by Israeli counterattacks.
Finally, there is Israel’s infiltration of Hezbollah’s communications system and the assassination of key figures. The destruction of pagers and walkie talkies indicates that Mossad has the ability to tell where almost every Hezbollah fighter is at any given time and the IDF (Israeli Defense Force) has the ability to destroy them with sophisticated guided missiles.
As for the assassinations, Hassan Nasrallah was not the only Hezbollah figure killed when the Israeli bomb hit an apartment block in a Beirut suburb this week. In the same room were the Hezbollah’s number two, chief of security and the head of the southern command. And they were only a handful of a few dozen key Hezbollah figures whom Israel has killed in recent months.
So, Iran’s proxy/defensive shield is seriously weakened. Now, key figures in the Israeli government are arguing, is the time to attack what Netanyahu has called “the greatest danger to peace in the Middle East”—Iran. And Iran, has provided the Israeli prime minister with the casus belli to do just that.
Analysts now expect Israeli to attack either Iran’s oil infrastructure, its military installations, the Iranian leadership and/or its nuclear facilities. An assault on any of these would have consequences for the rest of the world.
If Israel focused on Iran’s oil infrastructure it would probably target Kharg Island through which 90 percent of the country’s oil exports flow. Tehran’s biggest customer is China. At least 10 percent of Chinese oil needs are supplied by Iran. To date, China has managed to stay aloof from the Middle East quagmire. An attack on its oil supplies could change that.
A wider Middle East War could also put paid to China’s critical Belt/Road Initiative as any fighting would straddle the link between the Chinese workshops and the European markets that the BRI wants to reach.
Iran is responsible for roughly 4 percent of the world’s oil production. A the moment there is a surfeit of oil supplies. But a disruption in production could push up world oil prices just as the West is starting to tackle inflation caused by covid and the Ukraine War. This aspect could be exacerbated by the possibility of Iran countering an attack by closing the Straits of Hormuz through which 20-25 percent of the world’s oil passes.
Russia is also a player as an unofficial ally of Iran. Tehran and Moscow are both propping up Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and Iran is a key supplier of drones that are being used against the Ukrainians. Both the Kremlin and Beijing have joined the chorus for restraint.
The leaders of the Arab states are in quandary. They don’t like Tehran. Neither do they have friendly feelings towards its proxies Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen. But their populations feel differently, especially in the rich oil fields of Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province which is dominated by Shia Muslims.
Crippling Iran’s nuclear capability must be Israel’s ultimate goal. After Iran’s missile attack, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, wrote on X that Israel should immediately attack Iran’s nuclear installations. He said: “We have the justification. We have the tools. Now that Hezbollah and Hamas are paralysed, Iran stands exposed.”
The problem there is America. President Joe Biden has categorically said that the US would not support an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear capability. But what exactly does that mean? Biden and Harris have both said they would defend Israel and have—with British help—done so at least twice in recent weeks. By protecting Israel from counterattack they are enabling their attack. At least, that is how the rest of the world will see it. So will the Arab voters in the key swing state of Wisconsin who could determine the outcome of the November presidential election.
But destroying Iran’s nuclear capability may be a task too far for Mossad and the IDF. Iran’s nuclear facilities are spread over at least eight different sites and they are hidden deep underground and heavily protected. On top of that, Israel cannot destroy the know-how that the Iranians have acquired with their development programme.
And that is why Israel’s emphasis on the military solution will ultimately lead to failure. Destruction of Iran’s nuclear installations would be a major setback. But the Iranians will retain the knowledge and if Israel attacks it will be harnessed to a determination fuelled by vengeance. Hezbollah is on the back foot, but it is not eliminated. There are still 45,000 fighters who are world renown experts at urban street fighting. They proved it in 2000 when they pushed Israel out of Lebanon.
Widening the war will have consequences for every nation on Earth and the finger of blame will be pointed at Israel.
* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He also contributes to “The New World” magazine and lectures on world affairs. He is the author of “America Made in Britain,” two editions of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “The Falklands Crisis.”
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14 Comments
Thank you for keeping up the pressure and information flow Tom.
The hate between Iran and the US goes back to 1953 when we ousted democratic President Mohammad Mossadegh. The anger of the crowd that mobbed me in Tehran in 1962 when hitchhiking to India confirmed this.
This year the press in the West carried forward this hate when it said the Ayatollah would fix the election of the new President. He didn’t. A reformist stood and won on a platform of building a new relationship with the West. Netanyahu feared his enemy would no longer be the enemy of the West and sent in his assassins to Tehran so that Iran would respond which they have done. So, the West stays the enemy of his enemy, his friend.
The former prime minister Naftali Bennett wrote in a tweet after the Iranian missile attack: “This is the greatest opportunity in 50 years to change the face of the Middle East. We must now act to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, its central energy facilities, and to fatally cripple this terrorist regime.”
With Netanyahu continuing his killing of Palestinians, Gazans and Lebanese, what is the alternative? Join A Land for All https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/two-state-solution-can-work on Thursday, October 10th at 9:00 pm Israel/Palestine time, 2:00 pm EST, and 11:00 am PST, as we discuss a way forward which will inspire new thinking and fresh perspectives. https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeAhA-vFhcPEFkqxOlrxPYsSdAhrbzv7ySUed3nJH1K28VrWA/viewform
Jordan and Egypt have peace treaties with Israel. What role if any do they have to play?
What might be the effects of these spreading, unkind conflicts on the arms industries and their share prices?
On his website, Michael Hudson makes the case that, following the impossibility of conscription resulting from its use/abuse for the Vietnam War, America now uses proxy armies.
If so, might the it be that Israelis are being used as an American “Foreign Legion” to gain control of the energy rich Middle East?
@steve trevethan. The problem is that Israel is a proxy that refuses to act like a proxy. It accepts American aid and its military umbrella but refuses listen to American guidance/advice. In the normal course of events this would lead to the withdrawal of American support but Israel has secured a large base of support from the American electorate. The Jewish lobby is only a small but influential part of it. Even larger is the evangelical lobby. So any American leader abandons Israel at his political peril.
Bearing in mind the religious contexts of many of the anti-conflict protestors in America, might it help to differentiate between Jews and Zionists?
As Mr Biden has already announced his retirement, what is there, concerning job preservation, to prevent him from stopping the supples of bombs etc?
What might be the ingredients of successful lobbying in America?
According to the presented analysis, might many American politicians be facing the choice between keeping their jobs or hindering massive harms to multiple thousands?
Might the American arms industry influence American policies on the export of arms?
@ Steve,
“…….might it help to differentiate between Jews and Zionists?”
I always would argue that we *should* distinguish between the two. There’s no real antisemitism amongst the vast majority of those taking an anti-Israeli position in the UK and USA, in spite of what is otherwise claimed. Some of the most vocal opposition to current Israeli policy, in Israel, the US and elsewhere, has come from Jewish people.
However, it won’t make a significant difference to the electoral calculations of US politicians.
As Tom says “Even larger is the evangelical lobby.”
““…….might it help to differentiate between Jews and Zionists?”
I always would argue that we *should* distinguish between the two.”
Agree
Yes, not all Jews are Zionists and not all Zionists are Jews.
(I am aware that several prominent anti-Zionists are Jewish, and that the largest Zionist organisation today is actually Christians United for Israel.)
“Crippling Iran’s nuclear capability must be Israel’s ultimate goal. … But destroying Iran’s nuclear capability may be a task too far for Mossad and the IDF. … And that is why Israel’s emphasis on the military solution will ultimately lead to failure.”
Might it be that Netanyahu has successfully fooled us all about what his ultimate aims are?
He has repeatedly lied about the extent of his ambitions. Gaza was a limited operation against Hamas. Until the IDF bombed it out of existence. Lebanon was a limited operation to protect Israel’s northern border from Hezbollah. Until Israel started bombing all across Lebanon and ordering people to flee to mythical places of safety. Iran will be a limited operation. Until it isn’t.
Regime change in Iran could be Netanyahu’s real goal. The end of the ayatollahs. Victory for the brave women who fought against Iranian religious terror – Thanks to Netanyahu. Suddenly, absolution for all Netanyahu’s misdeeds, when he can pose as the liberator of the Iranian people. A puppet “democrat” – A new Shah of Persia – Ruling by courtesy of Israel, who now become the undisputed leader of the Middle East.
Netanyahu’s fingers were in this Middle East situation long before the Hamas attack on Oct. 7th 2023..For years Netanyahu and his Likud party have encouraged and financed the rise of Hamas..
In order to prevent the moderate Palestinian Authority from having talks to discuss a two state solution Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu transfered of millions of dollars to Hamas-run Gaza despite criticism from within his own government…
At a Likud party conference in 2019, Benyamin Netanyahu said, “”Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas… This is part of our strategy – to isolate the Palestinians in Gaza from the Palestinians in the West Bank.”
He has succeeded; any hope of a two state solution is vanishingly small..
Netanyahu’s aim must surely be to goad the US into attacking Iran on it’s behalf, and some of the recent rhetoric from our own Government has me wondering if we in the UK are being softened up for supporting such action.
While Israel can undoubtedly launch small-scale, targeted attacks against Iran, mounting a large scale, sustained attack to permanently destroy their nuclear facilities or seriously degrade their oil facilities is logistically very difficult.
To attack by air deep into Iran is a 2000+ mile round trip, requiring several in-flight refuelling rendezvous and overflying at least 2 other foreign countries. While it will ignore objections from Syria and probably Iraq, it is less likely to want to antagonise Jordan or Saudi Arabia. It’s stealth aircraft and formidable electronic warfare capabilities would protect Israeli fighter aircraft from the relatively unsophisticated air defences of it’s neighbours, but large and slow tanker aircraft loitering over foreign airspace would be very visible and vulnerable.
Israel does have ballistic missiles capable of reaching Iran, but the conventional warheads available are unlikely to be very effective against deeply dug-in and fortified nuclear facilities.
What does Israel think about climate change? Does it care that its actions are making it more challenging for the world to achieve its emission targets? As a mature democracy its inhabitants need to make their government accountable for the environmental destruction it is causing both locally and globally. Means need to be justified to achieve agreed ends.