A look back at the polls (1/2): June

We tend not to be too poll-obsessed here at LDV – of course we look at them, as do all other politico-geeks, but viewed in isolation no one poll will tell you very much beyond what you want to read into it. Looked at over a reasonable time-span and, if there are enough polls, you can see some trends.

Here, in chronological order, are the results of the eight polls published in June:

Tories 42%, Labour 26%, Lib Dems 21% – ICM/Sunday Telegraph (8th June)
Tories 45%, Labour 25%, Lib Dems 20% – Populus/Times (10th June)
Tories 45%, Labour 28%, Lib Dems 16% …

Posted in Op-eds and Polls | 11 Comments
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A home for progressives

Writing in today’s Guardian, Nick Clegg said:

showed us that the evaporation of New Labour’s support in southern England – so carefully put together in the 1990s by Tony Blair, Peter Mandelson and Alastair Campbell – is now complete.

So what hope is there left for progressive voters in Britain? Has Cameron’s aversion to spelling out what he would do if he was handed the keys to No 10 done the trick? By avoiding any controversy, any meaningful policy choices, has he done enough to lull progressives into thinking that maybe it won’t be so bad after all to have a

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 15 Comments

Councillors in the news

Benjamin Redsell, a Suffolk Conservative county councillor (who left the party after being charged), has admitted 11 sex offences (more on the BBC).

Wear Valley’s Liberal Democrat leader Tommy Taylor has resigned:

A council leader who refused to apologise after describing three women officers as “nice bits of stuff” has resigned due to “ill health.”

Wear Valley Council’s Lib Dem leader Tommy Taylor, 67, made the remark at an awards event in March.

Opposition members said the comment was inappropriate, although the women did not make a complaint.

Mr Taylor said he was quitting for health reasons and that he did not regret “complementing”

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Posted in News | 1 Comment

Opinion: The devil is in the detail

On the whole, Lib Dems can probably be broadly satisfied with our current performance. The latest poll I’ve seen (from ComRes in the Independent) puts us on 18% – so, despite a significant Tory revival, we have not been squeezed.

One might reasonably argue that we should have done better out of Labour’s current demise, but my suspicion is that things will tighten as the general election comes closer, and Nick Clegg – who impresses me more and more – gets the greater media attention he deserves.

But that’s a pretty passive approach. How could the party be more …

Posted in Op-eds and Parliamentary by-elections | Tagged | 5 Comments

Prison overcrowding

The government has a plan to sort out prison crowding.  It appears representatives of Britain’s justice system are unimpressed.

I was particularly chuffed with

o Parliament has been extremely poor in not predicting the impact of its own legislation or acting on any predictions of prison population it has made, and improvement is highly desirable.

Posted in News | 10 Comments
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Top of the Blogs: The Golden Dozen #71

Welcome to the 71st of our weekly round-ups from the Lib Dem blogosphere, featuring the seven most popular stories according to click-throughs from the Aggregator (22nd-29th June), together with a hand-picked quintet you might otherwise have missed.

Let’s get straight down to it, in descending order of popularity:

Posted in Best of the blogs | 7 Comments

Opinion: Social mobility – we can make a difference

Last week’s Liberal Democrat News carried the following article from Martin Narey:

The UK is the fifth richest nation on Earth, yet it has one of the highest rates of child poverty in the industrialised world. Labour has made some commendable progress in reducing the truly shocking level of child poverty they inherited in 1997.

But even after allowing for the implementation of Budget measures for which investment has been found, they find themselves a million adrift from their ambition to halve child poverty by 2010.

Poverty can have a profound impact on a child, on his or her family, and the rest of society. It often sets in motion a deepening spiral of social exclusion, contributing to problems in education, employment, mental and physical health and social interaction. But what should really make child poverty alarm us all is the disturbing fact that a child born into deprivation seems now more likely to inherit his or her parents’ disadvantage than at any time in our recent past.

Posted in Op-eds and Party policy and internal matters | 10 Comments

But Mr Gladstone, are you local enough?

It would appear that the ‘local’ credentials of the candidates proved to be something of a talking-point in the recent Henley by-election.

Certainly, in Crewe & Nantwich it was a constant theme in the election literature. The Conservatives went so far as to claim that their man was “the only local candidate” – despite the fact that he lived further from the constituency than his Lib Dem rival, and that one of the ‘fringe’ candidates had lived all his life in Crewe! But, as a rather more experienced campaigner put it to me – with a shrug of his …

Posted in Op-eds and Parliamentary by-elections | 18 Comments

Bumper catchup

Catchup has been away from our screens following a writers strike. In the three weeks since you last heard from me, here’s what’s been happening.

There’s been a by-election. The best place to catch up are a series of post-mortem posts, including what party chief exec Lord Rennard emailed to members, and LDV staffer Stephen Tall’s response. A wide ranging debate followed on both threads – and Chris Rennard followed closely too – and posted his own response.

Just hours later, we heard that there would likely be a by-election in Glasgow East, so I asked …

Posted in A weekly catchup | 5 Comments

Something for the Weekend: Shame, Shame, Shame

It’s taken all day for me to get over last night’s Doctor Who cliffhanger. So now that’s done, let’s get on with this.

Beanz Meanz Bigotz

Heinz have got themselves lots of free publicity this week by first releasing and then withdrawing this ad:

So the controversy surrounds the footage of a man kissing a man – or, rather, a man kissing a woman played by another man. 207 outraged idiots complained to the Advertising Standards Authority, under the impression that if their kids saw the ad they’d have to explain homosexuality to them. Perhaps they should ask their kids to explain the ad to them as they’d clearly missed the point.

Heinz now face the embarrassment (aka more publicity) of more people complaining about their pulling of the ad than complained about it in the first place. In their attempt to avoid losing business from a minority of vocal homophobes, the food giant risks losing the custom of, well, people with brains.

Hurrah for the tenacious Nick Clegg for writing to Heinz thusly:

The decision to withdraw it has not only offended many gay, lesbian, transgender – and straight – people, it also represents a backward step in attempts to combat homophobia in Britain today, not to mention a collective loss of humour.

I am asking you to reverse this decision and reinstate the advert.

(The Daily Mash reports: Television to be controlled by 200 latent homosexuals)

They should have been more discreet

Kissing on TV is, of course, a very good way for gay men to draw attention to themselves – so exactly the kind of thing the Home Secretary helpfully recommends to those in Iran.

Responding to a letter from our own Lord Roberts of Llandudno, who has called for a moratorium on deportations to Iran for all who fear execution, Jacqui Smith dismissed the idea that sexuality alone was an issue:

Posted in Something for the Weekend | Tagged | 2 Comments

Nick Clegg on ‘The Big Idea’

If you haven’t caught up with it, yet there’s a must-read interview with Nick Clegg by Dominic Lawson in today’s Independent. Here’s an extract to whet your appetites:

In the half year since Clegg became Lib Dem leader, Gordon Brown has gone from hero to zero. Yet, I asked him, why is it that, at least so far as the opinion polls indicate to us, the Conservatives have gained enormously as a result, but the Lib Dems scarcely at all?

“You are inviting me to say that the glass is half-empty when I think it’s half full. I’m not innumerate. I

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Posted in News | 26 Comments

What would you do in Glasgow East?

The last 24 hours have seen many suggestions from readers about the conduct of by-elections.

Now it seems that the opportunity to put these suggestions into practice is coming up quicker than expected.

David Marshall MP has told his local Labour party that he will stand down because of his worsening health.

The results last time:

Party Candidate Votes % Change
Labour David Marshall 18,775   60.7 -3.0
Scottish National Party   Lachlan McNeill   5,268   17.0   -0.1  
Liberal Democrat

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Posted in News | 95 Comments

Scottish Labour leader quits

Wendy Alexander has resigned as Labour’s leader in Scotland following a ruling that she broke the Scottish Parliament’s rules over declaring donations.

More on the BBC and PoliticsHome (which has her full statement).

Posted in News | 10 Comments

Nick Clegg criticises Heniz for pulling advert

From Pink News:

The leader of the Liberal Democrats has become the first party leader to comment on the decision of food manufacturer Heinz to withdraw an advert from TV because it depicted two men kissing.

Nick Clegg has written to the the Director of UK Corporate Affairs at Heinz expressing his disappointment at their decision and asking them to reconsider.

“The depiction of a same-sex kiss in this advert was innocent both in tone and content, and I am shocked that you decided to withdraw it,” he wrote.

“While I understand that some people in Britain today are uncomfortable with same-sex relationships,

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Posted in News | 10 Comments

Chris Rennard writes about the Henley result…

I am enjoying this debate and for the record:

1) I don’t always comment in detail on things read by our opponents – but I do welcome any constructive debate within the party on these issues – especially contributions from those who also work hard in these campaigns.

2) I am not generally “hands on” in the organisation and management of our by-elections these days (unlike when I was Director of Campaigns & Elections 1989-2003 or a member of the team in various by-elections from Edge Hill in 1979 to Greenwich in 1987). But as Chief Executive (in the structure debated and …

Posted in News and Parliamentary by-elections | Tagged and | 110 Comments

Anthony Wells on ‘What happened to Labour’

Many Lib Dem Voice readers will be familiar with Anthony Wells’ name. He writes the UK Polling Report blog, which (though Anthony is a card-carrying Tory member) carries the most impartial and intelligent analysis of British political polls anywhere on the web.

On Politics Home today, Anthony analyses the results of the site’s PHI5000, a daily tracker of public opinion, to try and work out quite what’s behind the extraordinary slump in the Labour party’s fortunes in the past two months. You can read his full analysis here, but the conclusion is admirably concise:

What went wrong for Labour

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Posted in News and Polls | 7 Comments

Not had your fill of Henley analysis yet?

Then why not seek out former Lib Dem media chief Mark Littlewood’s analysis in today’s Telegraph? I don’t agree with it all, but here’s a thought-provoking extract to chew on:

The truth is that the Liberal Democrats have yet to develop a compelling narrative to deal with the threat posed by Cameron – and with many Liberal MPs defending small majorities over the Tories in the south of England, the threat is very real indeed. Many may now conclude that a record of being a hardworking constituency MP and championing local causes will not be enough to save them in

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Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | Tagged and | 45 Comments

Arms lobbyist loses Lib Dem peer Parliamentary pass

An update to yesterday’s story, Indy: the arms lobbyist and the Lib Dem peer, via BBC.co.uk:

An adviser to a peer is to lose his Parliamentary security pass after it emerged he also worked for a lobbying company with several defence clients. Robin Ashby’s role with Baroness Harris could be “open to misinterpretation”, the Liberal Democrats have conceded.

His name appears on a newly-published register of the staff who are employed by members of the House of Lords. But he insisted he had been “entirely honourable, straightforward and open” and had not lobbied defence ministers.

Mr Ashby is the managing partner

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Posted in News | Leave a comment

What does Henley mean for the Lib Dems?

“A bit disappointed” probably sums up the reaction of most Lib Dems on hearing the result from Henley. But it’s a response that deserves some cool, detached analysis – because the underlying message from Henley is more complex than either Lib Dems who throw up in their hands in despair, or Tories who bray in triumph, are currently admitting.

Reasons to be disappointed:

Well, they’re fairly obvious:

1. The party put in a big effort, fought a vigorous campaign, and had an excellent candidate in Stephen Kearney. We wanted to win – though, realistically, a 15% swing against the Tories in the current …

Posted in Op-eds and Parliamentary by-elections | Tagged | 41 Comments

Chris Rennard on the Henley result

For those who missed it, here is the result of the Henley by-election:

John Howell (Conservative): 19,796 (57%, +3%)
Stephen Kearney (Liberal Democrat): 9,680 (28%, +2%)
Mark Stevenson (Green Party): 1,321 (4%, +1%)
Timothy Rait (British National Party): 1,243 (4%, +4%)
Richard McKenzie (Labour): 1,066 (3%, -12%)
Chris Adams (UK Independence Party): 843 (2%, n/c)
Bananaman Owen (Official Monster Raving Loony Party): 242 (1%)
Derek Allpass (English Democrats Party): 157 (0.5%)
Amanda Harrington (Independent Candidate): 128 (0.4%)
Dick Rodgers (Common Good): 121 (0.4%)
Louise Cole (Independent Candidate): 91 (0.3%)
Harry Bear (Fur Play Party): 73 (0.2%)
Turnout: 34,915 (50.5%, -18%).

Here’s Chris Rennard’s reaction in an email this morning to Lib Dem members:

Just a

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Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | Tagged and | 83 Comments

BBC Question Time: open thread

Lib Dem shadow shadow home secretary and two-time leadership runner-up Chris Huhne is one of the panellists on tonight’s Question Time (broadcast on BBC1 and online from 10.35 pm GMT).

The panel will also include the Chief Secretary to the Treasury Yvette Cooper, the Conservative shadow security minister Pauline Neville Jones, contemporary artist Grayson Perry and the veteran Daily Mail journalist Ann Leslie.

So, if you want to sound-off as you watch, please feel free to use the comments thread.

Posted in Lib Dem TV | Tagged | 4 Comments

Lynne welcomes new Equalities Bill

The Government’s new Equalities Bill hit the headlines today – primarily for its legalisation of ‘positive discrimination’ where employers are able to employ two equally able candidates. Lib Dem Equalities spokeswoman Lynne Featherstone has put forward her views on her blog.

… the media have made great hay with the bit which will allow an employer who at interview has several equally qualified applicants – give the job to the one they feel fills a gap in the make up of their workforce. So – for example – if there was under-representation of male teachers in a primary school – and a woman and man both were equally qualified to get the job – the employer could decide to give the job to the man to improve the under-represented groups representation – without being sued. That’s the point. Previously it was against the law.

This is the bit that (in garbled and misleading form) grabbed the media attention, but the media have pretty much ignored the really good bit – that at the eleventh hour the Government included tackling age discrimination both in extending the equality duty on the public sector but also applying it to the provision of goods and services. Hurrah!

You can read the full posting here.

And for those of you who want Lynne’s views in more Parliamentary language, as transcribed by Hansard, here you go:

Posted in News | 6 Comments

Henley by-election: open (speculation) thread

There are just five hours til polls close in today’s by-election to decide who will succeed Boris Johnson as MP for Henley.

The widespread expectation is of a Tory victory – it is one of their safest seats – but there has been a great deal of energy behind Stephen Kearney and the Lib Dem team, so no-one’s ruling out a reduction in the Tory majority, or even a shock result.

Here’s what happened the last time the seat was contested, in 2005:
Conservative (Boris Johnson): 24,894 (54%)
Liberal Democrat (David Turner): 12,101 (26%)
Labour (Kaleem Saeed): 6,862 (15%)
Green (Mark Stevenson): …

Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | Tagged and | 63 Comments

Indy: the arms lobbyist and the Lib Dem peer

This from today’s Independent:

A senior arms lobbyist is gaining access to ministers, MPs and peers inside Parliament using a research assistant pass allotted to a member of the House of Lords who benefits financially from one of his companies, The Independent has learnt.

Though the Indy alleges no wrongdoing, the fact that their relationship can be questioned shows how important it is for the party’s representatives in Parliament to be above suspicion.

Posted in News and Parliament | 14 Comments

Osborne revealed

Could you imagine George Osborne as Prime Minister? Robert Harris can, according to an in-depth profile of the Tory shadow chancellor in July’s Prospect magazine, which is well worth reading if you have a spare 10 minutes.

Though Osborne’s star has shone since last October’s Tory conference pledge to raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1m – the acclaim which greeted it is credited with forcing Gordon Brown to cancel his ‘snap election’ plans – he finds it hard to live down the tag of being a schoolboy version of Peter Mandelson. Osborne appears to be obsessed by – …

Posted in News | Tagged | 8 Comments

Telegraph: Tory MPs ‘still overwhelmingly Thatcherite’

That’s the wholly unsurprising news from The Daily Telegraph based on a ConservativeHome.com survey of 120 Tory Parliamentary candidates:

The majority of new Conservative candidates selected to fight the next election are unabashed supporters of Margaret Thatcher’s ideals, a new survey has disclosed. They advocate lower taxes and are more concerned about terrorism than global warming. There is also still a very strong anti-European Union bias among Tory candidates. The future MPs also advocate an expansion in nuclear power, something the party under David Cameron’s leadership has been very reluctant to back.

The paper quotes ConHome’s Tim Montgomerie saying:

At the

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Posted in News | Tagged and | 25 Comments

PMQs: Nick tackles Gordon on the Gurkhas

At this week’s Prime Minister’s Questions, the Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg once again took Gordon Brown to task for his Government’s shameful refusal to give justice to those Gurkha soldiers who fought for this country. (You can read more about the Lib Dems’ Gurkha Justice campaign here).

The Prime Minister twice dodged the question of the Government’s refusal to recognise the citizenship claims and pension rights of Gurkhas who retired before 1997. “We have shown how we value the Gurkhas in this country,” claimed Gordon. We have indeed.

Of course, none of this will be reported in the media, who care only for marking the party leaders out of 10 for artistic impression. On that score, Nick is growing more comfortable by the day, easily riding the pathetic heckling from the Tory and Labour benches.

But the last couple of weeks have seen surprisingly weak performances from David Cameron, who has perhaps been more discomfited by David Davis’s resignation than he would care to admit. Tories may claim this is some cunning attempt to keep Gordon Brown in Number 10: they wish. He seems to have been knocked off his stride, and it’s not gone unnoticed. Let’s see if he gets it back before the summer recess.

Anyway you can judge for yourselves below, via YouTube and Hansard:

Posted in News and PMQs | Tagged and | 1 Comment

Mugabe stripped of knighthood

It was three weeks ago that Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg demanded at Prime Minister’s Questions that the Government strip Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe of his knighthood:

What message does it send that a man who has brought ruin and starvation to his own country continues to be honoured by a knighthood from ours? Will the Prime Minister at least accept that it is difficult to put pressure on other countries to do their bit to bring the Mugabe regime to heel if we do not take this simple, basic step? Will he take immediate action to strip Mugabe of his

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Posted in Europe / International and Parliament | Tagged | Leave a comment

Three Labour Parliamentarians and their money problems: update

MSPs have decided that Scottish Labour Leader Wendy Alexander broke the rules when she failed to declare donations to her leadership campaign. Meanwhile, it turns out that Cabinet members Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper and both under investigation over their use of the second homes allowance.

Today has also seen the publication of proposals to tighten up the whole expenses system.

Posted in Parliament | 2 Comments

Is James Purnell the man to take on the Tories for Labour?

Today’s ICM poll in The Guardian showing the Tories with a record 20% lead over Labour will increase the pressure on Gordon Brown.

Conventional wisdom – backed up by the results to date of the latest LDV poll – suggest the Prime Minister is safe for the moment. And at least part of the reason for that is the absence of a popular alternative – perhaps David Miliband, Alan Johnson, Harriet Harman or Jacqui Smith might do a better job. But no one in the cabinet has yet demonstrated they have anything like the chutzpah that would be …

Posted in News | Tagged and | 8 Comments
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