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When is a late surge not a late surge? (aka how Reuters gets the news wrong)

When all the changes in party support in an opinion poll are within the margin of error. Pretty obvious stuff you’d have thought, but take a look at the Reuters headline for its new marginal seats poll:

Poll shows late surge for Conservatives in swing seats

Now look at the actual vote shares:

Conservative 36% (+1)
Labour 36% (-2)
Lib Dem 20% (-1)

In other words, all the changes are within the margin of error. This is not a poll result that justifies the “surge” headline, even though curiously Reuters does rightly describe the Lib Dem share as “steady” which is a fair description for …

Posted in Polls | Tagged | 11 Comments

LDV doesn’t do statporn, but if we did (April ‘10)

… We’d say a big thank you to the 114,614 ‘absolute unique visitors’* who read Liberal Democrat Voice in April.

That’s DOUBLE our March 2010 figure of c.57,000, and we are up some 270% on the equivalent figure for April ’09 … anyone would think there was an election on.

This brings our absolute unique visitor readership for the last year to date (1 May 2009 – 30 April 2010) to 421,146, over 67% higher than the equivalent figure for 2008-09 of 251,110.

The 5 top-read stories during the month were:

1. The flow diagram which shows you who …

Posted in Site news | Tagged | Leave a comment

Media ups its game with improved donation reporting

The latest round of election donations published by the Electoral Commission have seen a much more accurate set of media reports than previous figures.

As I’d previously pointed out the figures published by the Electoral Commission are far from comprehensive as they exclude small donations and also all donations, of any size, given directly to candidates. However the media reports have previously treated the figures for declarable donations given to parties as if they were actual donation totals.

This time round though, helped by the Commission making its news release (even) clearer, the media has mostly got it right. Who …

Posted in Election law | 3 Comments

Top of the Blogs: The Golden Dozen #166

Welcome to the Golden Dozen, and our 166th weekly round-up from the Lib Dem blogosphere … Featuring the seven most popular stories according to click-throughs from the Aggregator (18th – 24th April, 2010), together with a hand-picked quintet, normally courtesy of LibDig, you might otherwise have missed.

Don’t forget: you can now sign up to receive the Golden Dozen direct to your email inbox – just click here – ensuring you never miss out on the best of Lib Dem blogging.

As ever, let’s start with the most popular post, and work our way down:

Posted in Best of the blogs | 1 Comment

Pollwatch Day 19 #GE2010 – Lib Dem surge still strong (except for News of the World)

Four polls for the Sunday papers have already been published – they are as follows:

    ComRes for Sunday Mirror / Independent on Sunday … CON 34%(-1), LAB 28%(+3), LIB DEM 29%(+2)
    ICM in the Sunday Telegraph … CON 35%(+2), LAB 26%(-2), LIB DEM 31%(+1)
    Ipsos MORI in the News of the World … CON 36%(+4), LAB 30%(-2), LIB DEM 23%(-9)
    YouGov in the Sunday Times … CON 35%(+1), LAB 27%(-2), LIB DEM 29%(nc)

There is also a OnePoll for the People showing the Tories and Lib Dems tied on 32%, with Labour way back in 23%; however, OnePoll, it should be noted, are a new …

Posted in General Election, Polls | 15 Comments

Vince on 0.2% growth: “the promised recovery is barely visible”

It’s official: the UK economy has enjoyed a second quarter of growth, as the BBC reports:

The UK economy continued to recover from recession in the first three months of the year, according to official estimates. GDP grew by 0.2% between January and March, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

Here’s what Lib Dem shadow chancellor Vince Cable had to say – in text:

These figures show that the promised recovery is barely visible. There is a real danger of the UK going into a double dip recession. As people deal with their own debts and as the banks continue to strangle good British businesses by starving them of credit the recovery will remain fragile.

“The British economy has had a massive heart attack – it has just emerged from the intensive care unit into the recovery ward. The worst possible action is the Tory proposal to pull out the drip-feed when the patient is still in a critical condition.

“Not only must we tackle the deficit in a considered and rational fashion, we must also ensure that we support jobs and infrastructure as well as making sure businesses get the credit they need to drive growth in the economy.”

And on video:

Posted in News | Tagged , | Leave a comment

If you only read five post-debate articles today, make it these five

Here’s my pick of today’s best and most insightful post-debate analysis …

Live-Blogging The Second Brit Debate: A Clegg Triumph (Andrew Sullivan)
A fascinating outsider’s perspective from a US-resident English writer who identifies as a political conservative – and has no doubts that Clegg was the victor of last night’s second debate:

Clegg seems able to grasp hot-button issues and present himself as a fresh approach. … A quote for the night: “You can’t deport 900,000 people when you don’t know where they live.” yes, Clegg again, and he pushes Cameron for a specific number for a cap on immigrants. Cameron has

…

Posted in News | 1 Comment

Opinion: Nick Griffin destroyed his parents and failed his family

On Wednesday’s Today programme, BNP leader Nick Griffin told the Radio Four audience that “Liberal economics… have utterly bankrupted this country.” It’s laughable. The truth is that Nick Griffin was himself declared bankrupt in 1991. Over several years thereafter, he destroyed his parents financially as well. In this link, Griffin’s parents tell the story of how their son ruined their lives.

It is the story of a man whose gross personal financial incompetence brought significant misery to his entire family. Griffin racked up debts of several hundred thousand pounds through a series of disastrous property investments, which he describes …

Posted in News | Tagged , | 6 Comments

Geeking the Vote

The Geek the Vote campaign has started spreading the message that the Liberal Democrats have the strongest case for building a geek-friendly Britain. I registered the domain name and started work on the site on Monday lunchtime. By Wednesday evening we had 408 Facebook fans, 272 supportive tweets using our campaign hashtag #geekthevote and a mention in the London Evening Standard.

Geeks are an emerging force in the political game. I personally became more interested in politics through following a number of single-issue campaigns online: Ben Goldacre’s tireless assault on irrationalism in public health (among other issues); a Number10.gov.uk petition …

Posted in Op-eds | 6 Comments

In praise of Chris Huhne

As we get ready for tonight’s second TV debate, it’s worth taking a moment to reflect on one of the reasons why Nick Clegg did so well in the first debate and also why the party was poised in a happy and strong position such that Nick’s debate victory boosted the party to first place in many polls. That reason? Chris Huhne.

Not only did Chris Huhne play the role of Gordon Brown in the debate preparations, but the very fact that a closely defeated leadership candidate was used in such a role reflects on how closely and how well Nick …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , | 9 Comments

OMG! People want to help – what do I do?

Election campaigns throw up all sorts of challenges, but one of the most pleasant and surprising this time round in many areas is the number of people offering to help. That is happening both locally and nationally, with the party’s main website, www.libdems.org.uk, seeing a 300% increase in the number of offers of help on the Thursday-Sunday of the first TV debate compared to the same period a week before.

Quite what you do with all these offers of help – many of which are coming in from wards and constituencies that were not in any targeting plan – is a nice conundrum to have. Two basic principles apply:

  • Don’t abandon targeting – big surges of votes in 1974 and 1983 did not turn into many extra seats. The party has since learned how to work the system far better – and the party’s targeting plans for this election were already massively more ambitious than ever before.
  • But similarly don’t think that the way to get a new person involved is to say, “Thanks very much, but we don’t really want your help round here.”

Squaring off both those points successfully is not always easy but it’s why we have had such success in Hornsey & Wood Green over the years – going from 0 councillors, 0 local deliverers and third place at the general election to 23 councillors, hundreds of deliverers and an MP. Ruthless targeting in council elections – but also a keen eye to building up the wider strength.

So here are my tips on what to do with all these offers of help:

  1. Window posters: a strong poster display helps feed the most important message – if people think other people are going to vote Liberal Democrat, they are much more likely to do so themselves. Getting a small public commitment to supporting the party from someone is also a good way of upping the odds of them becoming a long-term helper.
  2. Be social: some people like helping out on their own – whether it’s sat at home writing a cheque or out on the streets delivering on their own. But for most people saying, “Go away and do something on your own” ain’t the right move. There are two TV debates coming up: why not get people together in front of a TV to watch?
  3. Help elsewhere from right here: “Go away and help somewhere else” also ain’t a great message. But you can get people together for a session of phone canvassing somewhere nice and local – even if the phone calls are to a target seat elsewhere. Again, this has the benefit of being more social and fun – and most people prefer the chance to learn together how to do something new rather than being sent instructions on what to do on their own at home.
  4. Get writing to the local and regional papers: the day to day logistics of campaigning often involve too little politics and policy to really appeal to people who have been enthused by national coverage of the party. Encouraging people to write to the papers is a good way of combining publicity with thinking and talking about policy. As an added bonus, newspapers often cover both weaker areas and target seats – so you can help both in one go without having to choose.
  5. Take new people to go and see how a full on campaign works: seeing a full campaign at work can be tremendous fun, invigorating and educational. But don’t say “Please drive 30 miles away to go and find some fun with other people”; do say “Would you like to join us on our campaign trip on Saturday afternoon?”.
  6. Encourage people to join the party: it gives them more of a say in the future of politics and it gives the party greater strength in the long term.
  7. Share content online: rating Nick Clegg’s videos on YouTube, tweeting links to Vince Cable’s stories on the party website, saving to Facebook a positive newspaper story and more – these are all easy to do, can be done from anywhere and help the party’s message reach a wider audience, again in both stronger and weaker areas.

While you ponder that list, here’s what Nick Clegg has to say:

Posted in General Election | Tagged | 6 Comments

Can the surge last? Lib Dem bloggers give their views …

Lib Dems leading the election race, and polling above 30% – that’s not a line (m)any of us expected to be able to type with a straight face. But it’s the present reality. The questions is: can the Lib Dem surge last? Here’s what a handful of Lib Dem bloggers think …

James Graham

Anyone who claims to know what will happen electorally next month simply doesn’t know what they are talking about. But there are a number of reasons to suggest that the Liberal Democrats’ poll leap over the weekend might last.

Firstly, polls tend to be mutually reinforcing. This is why some countries ban them during election time. The same factor which has reinforced the Lib Dems’ image as no-hopers in the past might well work in our favour now, especially since it is such a dramatic development.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , , | 49 Comments

The #GE2010 Golden Half-Dozen: pick of the Lib Dem blogs (19th April)

During the election campaign Lib Dem Voice is each day (more or less) highlighting six blog-posts from the Lib Dem Blogs Aggregator which we think are well worth reading.

Here’s our pick from 14th April …


    Post election deals: number two cannot play second fiddle to number three
    (Jock Coats)

    Let’s assume for one magical moment that the Lib Dems remain in second place and take the second highest share of the vote, after the Tories, and that Labour takes the third highest share of the vote. … It would be utterly unconscionable in such circumstances to do any deals with

…

Posted in General Election | 2 Comments

Well, here’s an unusual tactic from a Conservative candidate…

“Let’s vote LD” – from the Twitter feed of George Hollingbery, the Conservative candidate for Meon Valley:

George Hollingbery - Twitter screenshot

Posted in General Election | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Top of the Blogs: The Golden Dozen #165

Welcome to the Golden Dozen, and our 165th weekly round-up from the Lib Dem blogosphere … Featuring the seven most popular stories according to click-throughs from the Aggregator (11th – 17th April, 2010), together with a hand-picked quintet, normally courtesy of LibDig, you might otherwise have missed.

Don’t forget: you can now sign up to receive the Golden Dozen direct to your email inbox – just click here – ensuring you never miss out on the best of Lib Dem blogging.

As ever, let’s start with the most popular post, and work our way down:

Posted in Best of the blogs | 3 Comments

It’s been another great week for George Osborne

You may ask what could have inspired me to write such a headline. Well, it’s none other than George himself.

As Iain Martin has blogged – twice, he found the Tory shadow chancellor’s state of denial so bizarre – George Osborne has issued a message to Tory supporters assuring them:

It’s been another great week for our campaign.”

Hmmm, and “Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?”

But then it’s not been a good day for George, having already launched friendly fire against Boris Johnson by attacking the Tory London mayor’s own policy of an amnesty for illegal immigrants.

Posted in General Election | Tagged , , | 6 Comments

Here comes the debate worm

I’ve written previously about my expectation that we’d see a worm grace the stage during the televised party leader debates. However, whilst I speculated about the worm being in Channel 4’s charge, looking to a traditional TV broadcast was just too old school of me. In fact, there will be a worm – but it’s a Facebook worm. As their news release explains:

With Britain’s first ever prime ministerial debate taking place on Thursday, Facebook’s 23 million UK users are being invited to participate in a mass “dial test” which will enable them rate the debates in real time and

…

Posted in General Election | Tagged | 3 Comments

Lib Dem manifesto launch attracts media plaudits

Five years ago, I think it’s only fair to say, the Lib Dem manifesto launch was not without its hitches. Today’s was toruble-free. The website is slick and engaging, the Nick & Vince double-act showcased their complementary skills, and the media response has been almost surprisingly favourable.

In the New Statesman, James Macintyre assesses that the Lib Dems are on a roll:

The Liberal Democrats, who launched their manifesto this morning, are having an undeniably good week. … Nick Clegg, who held his own against Jeremy Paxman this week, has undoubtedly matured as leader, just in time for an

…

Posted in General Election | Tagged | 7 Comments

Top of the Blogs: The Golden Dozen #164

Welcome to the Golden Dozen, and our 164th weekly round-up from the Lib Dem blogosphere … Featuring the seven most popular stories according to click-throughs from the Aggregator (4th-10th April, 2010), together with a hand-picked quintet, normally courtesy of LibDig, you might otherwise have missed.

Don’t forget: you can now sign up to receive the Golden Dozen direct to your email inbox – just click here – ensuring you never miss out on the best of Lib Dem blogging.

As ever, let’s start with the most popular post, and work our way down:

Posted in Best of the blogs | Leave a comment

Don’t take it out on Vince, guys, just ‘cos you’re stuck with George

I’ve been amused to see the rush-to-rubbish Vince Cable today among some right-wing bloggers following his appearance on BBC1’s The Politics Show.

Iain Dale (but of course) was first up to tweet: “Well done Jon Sopel for finally exposing Vince Cable as the overrated flipflopper that he is.” He was soon followed by ConservativeHome’s Tim Montgomerie, and Wall Street Journal’s Iain Martin, who has a pet-obsession with Vince’s popularity.

Having missed the show at lunchtime, I sat down nervously to catch up on iPlayer (Vince’s inteview begins about 3 minutes in) fully expecting him to be eviscerated by Jon Sopel.

In fact, what I watched was a robust interview in which Vince more than held his own, and made the key points that (1) the Labservatives have consistently opposed Lib Dem attempts to clean up our politics, and (2) the Tories need to explain how they’re going to fund their various tax-cuts if not through raising VAT.

Why have the Tories got it in for Vince?

Which left me wondering: what got Iain, Tim and Iain so excited that they dashed into the twitblogosphere to try and swing the media narrative against Vince? (Besides the inevitable election-time partisan point-scoring, that is).

Posted in General Election, Op-eds | Tagged , , , , , | 13 Comments

The #ge2010 Golden Half-Dozen: pick of the Lib Dem blogs (7th April)

During the election campaign Lib Dem Voice will each day be highlighting six blog-posts from the Lib Dem Blogs Aggregator which we think are well worth reading.

Here’s our pick from 7th April, the first full day’s campaigning …

  • There’s an election coming – hurrah! (Lynne Featherstone)

  • Lynne on the joys of standing for re-election: “It’s been an absolute privilege and a joy to be the MP in Hornsey & Wood Green, representing the constituency where I went to school, where I got married and where I have worked for many years.”

  • Stop Whinging, Big Business (The Futility Monster)
  • Deeply

…

Posted in Best of the blogs, General Election | 1 Comment

LDVideo Easter Monday special: a quattro of Tory gaffes

Welcome to this latest LDVideo instalment, and today as a special holiday treat we’re highlighting four political video clips showing the Tory leadership team at their most embarrassingly gaffe-prone.

First up is this one from Tory shadow chancellor George Osborne, committing a diplomatic faux pas by referring to “the Sarkozy box” used by the diminutive French president when speaking from behind lecterns. (Yes, it’s sort of funny. But when you’re hoping to be this country’s chief finance minister, it really is better to avoid needlessly antagonising world leaders – as David Cameron might also learn) …


(Also available via PoliticsHome here).

Then, secondly, a pair of Cameron clips. The first from his recent stumbling interview with Martin Popplewell for Gay Times:

Posted in YouTube | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Daily View 2×2: 5 April 2010 (with added A Song for Democracy)

Happy Easter Monday, everyone, on the day in history when (in 1621) the Mayflower set sail from Plymouth, Massachusetts on a return trip to England – as Eddie Izzard once remarked of the Pilgrims, “They set sail from Plymouth and landed in Plymouth – how lucky is that?”

Just 55 years ago, Winston Churchill quit as Prime Minister, handing over the reins to Anthony Eden. Meanwhile the sports fans among you might like to know that 1904 witnessed the first international rugby league match, played between England and the fantastically named ‘Other Nationalities’ team of Welsh and Scots.

But without further tarrying, let’s come right up to the present day … and as a Bank Holiday bonus, there’s a special musical video to rally the Liberal Democrats at the end.

2 Must-Read Chris Grayling-inspired Blog Posts

What are other Liberal Democrat bloggers saying? Here are two posts that have caught the eye from the Liberal Democrat Blogs aggregator:

  • “No blacks, no Irish, no gays?” – Jock Coats, a gay, Lib Dem, Christian, argues in favour of the rights of B&B owners to discriminate: “We can’t end discrimination simply by state fiat, by making it unlawful, and I find it dangerous to try.”
  • Inside the mind of Chris Grayling – Alix Mortimer urges readers to stop taking their intellectual cues from Mr Grayling: “I’m all in favour of restoring our civil liberties, and I’m also in favour of easing regulation on small businesses, but my impression is that there are one or two slightly more pertinent places to start those processes? You know, just possibly?”

Spotted any other great posts in the last day from blogs that aren’t on the aggregator? Do post up a comment sharing them with us all.

2 Offbeat LibDem Stories

Financial Times under misapprehension that Lib Dems only fighting 50 seats at general election

Posted in Daily View | 6 Comments

BNP hit by allegations of coups, infighting and sabotage

Extract from a leaked BNP email bulletin:

For several months the party’s internal security team has been running an extensive and long-running investigation. This was initially tasked to investigate:

  • Alleged financial irregularities and ‘scamming’ concerning the procurement of print, especially large election print run, leaflets and regular publications including Identity magazine.
  • The leaking onto the internet of sensitive party information.
  • The ongoing, co-ordinated and sustained hate campaign, feeding lies to certain anti-BNP blog sites.

More recently, its focus has moved on to the catalogue of recurring and seemingly inexplicable ‘gaffes’ being made at various stages in our preparations for the general election by certain

…

Posted in News | Tagged , , | 19 Comments

LDV doesn’t do statporn, but if we did (March ‘10)

… We’d say a big thank you to the 58,552 ‘absolute unique visitors’* who read Liberal Democrat Voice in March.

That’s a huge 77% increase on our Feb. ’10 figure of c.34,000, and we are up some 125% on the equivalent figure for March ’09 of c.26,000.

This brings our absolute unique visitor readership for the last year to date (1 April 2009 – 31 March 2010) to 345,223, over 45% higher than the equivalent figure for 2008-09 of 237,536.

The 5 top-read stories during the month were:

1. Lord Clement-Jones on the Digital Economy Bill: web blocking amendment (246) …

Posted in Site news | Tagged | Leave a comment

Ask the Chancellors: your LDV reader

Did you watch Ask the Chancellors last night, with the Lib Dems’ Vince Cable centre stage?

If you didn’t … then you can watch it in full via the Channel 4 website, or some of Vince’s best bits via Lib Dem Voice’s YouTube channel.

If you did … then we’ve assembled all the Lib Dem blogosphere reaction in one handy-to-skim-and-click post so that you can catch up with all the post-match analysis.

Posted in Best of the blogs | 5 Comments

Campaigners’ weather forecast

It’s lovely now! Go outside and do some leafleting!

But there is a storm coming later this week – my RSS feed of severe weather warnings tells me there are warnings in place for Tuesday from 2am to midnight for very heavy rain and even snow on high ground. So, for Tuesday, it might make sense to plan some indoor activity – preparing your leaflets, researching your stories and making some phone calls.

The warning appears to apply for from the Midlands and further north, Northern Ireland, but not Scotland, so key seats from Watford to Durham and Cardiff …

Posted in News | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Daily View 2×6: 25 March 2010

A pleasant surprise this morning to wake up and find that, despite the fact I am doing the Daily View, it is indeed Thursday and not Tuesday! In celebration of yesterday’s Budget, there’s riproaring inflation of the number of posts featured in today’s Daily View. Don’t tell Vince! Is it sustainable? I doubt it, so enjoy while you can..

Thirty years ago, the British Olympic Association (BOA) voted by a large majority to defy the government and send athletes to the Olympic Games in Moscow.  The Conservative government has pressed the BOA to boycott the event in a protest at the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan the previous year. Sir Denis Follows, the chairman of the BOA, said that whilst he was sympathetic to the government’s stance, “We believe sport should be a bridge, and not a destroyer”. 

On this day in 1655 Dutch astronomer Christiaan Huygens discovered Titan, the largest natural satellite of the planet Saturn.  During their 1969 honeymoon, John Lennon and Yoko Ono held their first Bed-In for Peace at the Amsterdam Hilton Hotel.

Posted in Daily View | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Who made the threatening #cashgordon phone call?

Are you up to speed with the mess the Tories made out of trying to use social media yesterday? They launched a website trying to criticise Gordon Brown for something or other. Part of the site included a twitter feed so that any twitter user using the hashtag #cashgordon could get their words on the site. Users quickly found out that these were not screened before going live, which meant you could get anti-Tory sentiment onto the Tory website. And then the more technically minded twitterati discovered that if you included some code in your tweet, you …

Posted in News, Online politics | Tagged , , , , , | 3 Comments

Summary of today’s #cashgordon social media silliness

Tories buy campaigning package off the shelf from US company.

Company also does some rather right wing work. This is either outrageous (Right wing? You shock me!) or unsurprising (Americans? Right wing? You surprise me!)

Package as launched by Tories includes unmoderated twitter stream.

Unflattering tweets start appearing.

Site pulled.

Lesson for the day: unmoderated feeds of content on political sites bring tears before bedtime. Those who have been awake for the last decade may not wish to call this “news”.

PS Myself, I’d have been suspicious of a US supplier that advertisers a “one pager” which is actually two …

Posted in Online politics | Tagged , , | 8 Comments
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