Tag Archives: nick harvey

A longer read for the weekend: Nick Harvey on how “the whole model of local Government funding is now fundamentally broken”

There was a mini-Lib Dem rebellion this week, when five MPs – Tim Farron, Nick Harvey, Andrew George, Stephen Gilbert and Adrian Sanders – all voted against this year’s funding settlement between the Treasury and local government.

As the New Statesman’s George Eaton points out here, “By the end of 2015-16, the budget of the Department for Communities and Local Government will have been reduced by a remarkable 60.6 per cent, with several years of austerity still ahead.” But Whitehall will have been emboldened by this recent ICM poll highlighted by the BBC showing 60% of the public …

Posted in Local government and Parliament | Also tagged , , and | 9 Comments

Free school lunches for infants: 60% of Lib Dems back Nick Clegg’s policy

Lib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum  to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Some 750 party members responded – thank you – and we’ve been publishing the full results.

(There were a couple of results I ran out of time to publish during the Christmas holiday period – I’m publishing them this week.)

On Saturday, I reported the results of what party members think about school structures. Yesterday, we looked at whether you thought teachers should have formal professional qualifications and if the National …

Posted in LDV Members poll | Also tagged , and | Leave a comment

Three scenarios for the 2015 election based on current polling: which do you think looks most plausible?

In 18 months we’ll know the result of the 2015 general election.

Forecasting is a mug’s game – especially because there are an even greater number of variables this time than usual: a governing coalition of two parties with one established centre-left opposition, Labour, and an insurgent right-wing party, Ukip.

But plenty are having a go at it anyway. Lib Dem MP Sir Nick Harvey reckons Labour has the next election in the bag. Psephologist Lewis Baston thinks we’re headed for a second hung parliament. And pollster Sir Bob Worcester believes the Lib Dems are destined for meltdown.

Here’s my quick ‘n’ dirty analysis based on the polling trends. What I’ve looked at is Labour’s lead over the Conservatives according to the monthly average of opinion polls under three different scenarios.

(Huge caveat straight off: the extent of the polling science on display here is me playing around on an Excel spreadsheet.)

Scenario 1

The Conservatives hit rock bottom in May 2012. The omnishambles budget and its desperate U-turns were followed by a poor set of local election results. There have been dips since then, notably when it looked like the economy might plunge into what was being billed as a triple-dip recession at the start of 2013, but never quite matching that period.

Taking May 2012 as the peak of Labour’s lead, what would happen if the linear trend since then were to continue through to May 2015? This is what:

polling trends 2015 - ST 2

Posted in Polls | Also tagged , , and | 51 Comments

Free school meals for infants – the controversy over Nick Clegg’s pledge rumbles on

Clegg WatfordI wrote yesterday about Sir Nick Harvey’s forecast that the next election is Labour’s to lose. But there was another issue he focused on in his Huffngton Post interview – Nick Clegg’s conference pledge that all 5-7 year-olds should have free school meals, regardless of their family’s income status.

“It was absolutely astonishing. It came from nowhere,” he exclaims. “It seemed to be part of some coalition deal where it was meant to make the Lib Dems feel better about allowing the Tories to progress their wretched married

Posted in News | Also tagged , , , and | 44 Comments

Is Nick Harvey right that “Labour is on course to win the next election”?

Nick Harvey MPSir Nick Harvey, Lib Dem MP for North Devon (and former defence minister), has little doubt who’s going to win the next election, as he tells the Huffington Post:

… Harvey has a “clear sense” of what he thinks is going to happen. And even more than that, he is “astonished” that few others within the Westminster Village share his view.

“Stand fast a game changing event, which is always possible in the febrile political era in which we live, Labour is on course to win the next election,” he

Posted in News | Also tagged , and | 18 Comments

Did Nick Harvey turn down the job of Lib Dem chief whip?

nick harvey weaponSir Nick Harvey, summarily sacked as defence minister by Nick Clegg a year ago, was offered a job in government at last week’s reshuffle — at least according to James Forsyth in the Mail on Sunday:

The Lib Dem leader had hoped Nick Harvey would be his Chief Whip. But, to Clegg’s surprise, Harvey turned down the job. ‘Clegg was gobsmacked,’ one Lib Dem tells me. The Deputy Prime Minister didn’t expect him to reject an invitation to join his inner circle. Harvey had been sounded out about taking

Posted in News | Also tagged and | 2 Comments

Opinion: Looking forward to a post-Trident future

Amid general agreement on the thrust of Julie Smith’s Committee’s excellent paper, and gratitude that Nick Harvey and Danny Alexander have delivered unprecedented transparency on the UK’s nuclear options, next Tuesday’s debate on defence offers two sharply differing views of the future of Britain’s nuclear future.

On the one hand, there is Nick Harvey’s proposal to retain the Trident missiles, their warheads and associated infrastructure, but reducing our purchase of new Trident submarines from four to two. This means that from the early 2030s, the UK will no longer be able to mount the standing patrols of Continuous At-Sea Deterrence (CASD) …

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged and | 17 Comments

Recent Comments

  • User Avatarexpats 17th Mar - 11:43pm
    Gordon 16th Mar '18 - 9:[email protected] Expats (16th @ 12:10 pm) – I saw that Telegraph article in Sainsburys. The headline is so certain, “nerve...
  • User AvatarJayne mansfield 17th Mar - 10:18pm
    @ David Raw, ' Go away and shut up' Not you David. There is a good article in The Independent, 'Top Cold War Diplomat criticises...
  • User AvatarDavid Raw 17th Mar - 9:59pm
    Turning back to the subject of Putin etc., One of the most ridiculous things I've seen recently was Johnson B. doing his Churchill impersonation about...
  • User AvatarRichard Underhill 17th Mar - 9:57pm
    I set up to record a programme about Vladimir Putin, but what I got was Ken Dodd, who had upstaged him. They are not the...
  • User AvatarJoe Bourke 17th Mar - 9:17pm
    Peter, as far as the world is concerned if G-T =$2.6 trillion in 2016 then S-I = $2.6 trillion i.e. about 3.3% of world GDP...
  • User AvatarPeter Martin 17th Mar - 8:23pm
    @ JoeB, I think all we can say about the world as whole is that M-X=0 We don't trade with Mars or anywhere else! So...