Pakistan

Pakistan is a nuclear power with an estimated 165 nuclear warheads and bombers and missiles to deliver them. This is important to remember as the country slides into political, economic and social chaos. Also remember that Pashtos are the second largest ethnic group in Pakistan (18 percent) and the largest (42 percent) in neighbouring Islamic fundamentalist Afghanistan.

Mustn’t forget either that Pakistan’s Pashto community are supporters of the Taliban and that Al Qaeeda and ISIS are re-establishing bases in that benighted and dangerously unstable Afghanistan. Then there is also the fact there have been 434 terrorist attacks in Pakistan this year, the majority by Islamic fundamentalists with links to groups based in on the western side of the Hindu Kush.

Another concern is that China holds 30 percent of Pakistan’s $100 billion debt. The country’s foreign reserves have virtually disappeared to pay for oil imports. General inflation is running at 34 percent and food prices are soaring at an estimated 50 percent.

Finally, Pakistan’s army and intelligence community pull the country’s political strings. Politicians cannot stay in office without their support. Which is big part of Imran Khan’s problems.

He had the military’s support when he became prime minister in 2018 at the head of a coalition. But the former international cricket star was the wrong person to head a coalition. Khan is used to giving orders rather than compromising, and was soon publicly attacking his coalition partners. But the final straw came when he began toying with the idea of curbing the power of the military.

Last April, Khan lost a parliamentary vote of no confidence. He rejected it and has refused to resign. In response the succeeding government has charged him with more than 100 offenses ranging from fraud to blasphemy. It should be said that this is standard political practice in Pakistan. The successor prime minister to Khan – Shehbaz Shaif – was released on bail for corruption charges to enable him to lead the government.

The 232 million Pakistanis have meanwhile split between pro and anti-Imran Khan Factions with the military leading the anti-faction. Riots and demonstrations have become a daily feature of life in Pakistan.

Ukraine

The much anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive remains much anticipated. The promised 230 Western tanks have arrived as well as 1,500 armoured vehicles. An estimated 60,000 Ukrainian troops appear to be ready to attack. The assault could literally be launched any day.

The most likely battle site is in the south around Kherson. A strike there could sever the land bridge between the Russian forces in Crimea and the Donbas Region.  The problem with that plan is that the Russians have constructed one of the most elaborate defensive systems ever seen. The Ukrainians could end up hurling themselves against a 160 mile long Russian brick wall off trenches, mines, anti-tank traps and razor wire.

They could suffer the same fate that has befallen the Russian Wagner Group in their months’ long attempt to capture Bakhmut. Russians casualties in Bakhmut are estimated by Western intelligence to be as high 60,000 with 20,000 of them being fatal. The town has been reduced to an unrecognisable pile of rubble.

Wagner head Yevgeny Prigorzhin blames the failure of his prison-recruited force on the official military’s refusal to provide his convicts with enough ammunition. He has even released an expletive-laden diatribe attacking Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the head of the armed forces, Valery Gerasimov.

Prigorzhin is probably right. The Russians are reported to be low on ammunition and the official military establishment wants to husband its resources for the coming Ukrainian counter offensive. But the row between the Wagner Group exposes a deep division and absence of a clear command structure within the Russian military establishment. This can only benefit the Ukrainians when they finally launch their much anticipated assault.

Northern Ireland

There was really nothing new in the substance of Biden’s remarks this week about Northern Ireland. What was new and unfortunate was the language he used.

To briefly recap, the US president made a brief one-day flying visit to Northern Ireland and had a 15-minute tea break with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. He never appeared comfortable. In stark contrast, the president went on to the southern half of Ireland where he had a great time reconnecting with his Irish roots.

This week he made clear that his visit to Northern Ireland was all business.  He told the Democratic National Committee that the purpose was “to ensure the Brits didn’t screw around and Northern Ireland didn’t walk away from their commitments.”

Biden’s suspicions are well founded.  Boris Johnson and Liz Truss planned to flout international law and renege on the Brexit deal they negotiated for Northern Ireland. This would have seriously damaged the Good Friday Agreement and quite possibly resulted in a renewal of sectarian violence. The Democratic Unionist Party which represents most of the Protestant community, wants to do just that. Which is why they are refusing to take their seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly.

Rishi Sunak’s deal with the EU (the Westminster Agreement) is trying to save both Brexit in Northern Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement. It is rejected by the DUP. When Biden says he is trying to keep the Brits honest he is almost certainly referring to the DUP and the right wing of the conservative party, both of whom have proven they are untrustworthy when it comes to protecting the Good Friday Agreement

The US plays a vital role in the continuing success of the Good Friday Agreement. It helped to broker the deal by winning the trust of both sides of the sectarian divide. If the agreement is going to survive for another 25 years then America must continue to be a concerned and neutral party that has the support of all the parties.  Biden’s comments have exposed him as prejudiced against the Protestants.

Turkey

Interesting last-minute development in the Turkish elections. With only days before voters troop to the polls this Sunday, one of the four candidates pulled out, opening the long-shot possibility that the main opposition candidate – Kemal Kilicdaroglu – could end the 21-year long rule of President Erdogan in the first round of voting.

Muharrem Ince was not a serious contender for the top job. Opinion polls showed him with only two percent of the vote. But his supporters are likely to switch to Kilicdaroglu who – before Ince’s withdrawal – was polling 49 percent. This gives him an outside chance of winning a simple majority in the first round. Erdogan is trailing in the opinion polls at 46 percent.

However, there is no guarantee that Turkey’s strongman president will go quietly. After Ince withdrew from the race, he said that he would block any fresh attempt at a military coup, with the clear false implication that Kilidaroglu is backed by the army.

So far there are no suggestions of planned ballot rigging even though Erdogan controls the Supreme Electoral Council. The elections will probably be free but far from fair as Erdogan also controls almost all of the media and has imprisoned thousands of his political opponents. If Kilidaroglu overcomes these obstacles in either the first or second round (scheduled for 28 May) it will be a massive indictment of Erdogan’s rule.

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He also contributes to “The New World” magazine and lectures on world affairs. He is the author of “America Made in Britain,” two editions of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “The Falklands Crisis.”