It does occasionally seem that, instead of a government, we have the equivalent of a Latin American telenovela, with a plot line that lasts for a mere season. And, just when you might think that the plot has become too absurd, some even more unlikely script emerges.
Meanwhile, in the Commons, not much is happening, as Richard Foord noted on Tuesday:
It says a lot that it's 2:27pm on a Tuesday afternoon and MPs have already discussed the only bit of substantive business the Government has brought forward. I know many say Ministers are out of ideas, but this is just ridiculous.
— Richard Foord MP (@RichardFoordLD) June 6, 2023
And, in truth, much of what they are doing is likely to be ineffective or aimed at making vulnerable people more so. In fairness, it’s rather busier at the Lords end of the Palace of Westminster. Which reminds me…
Of course, the Government has its five priorities, one of which is to reduce inflation. I was intrigued by some polling by Redfield & Wilton,
When Rishi Sunak says he aims to halve inflation, British voters think he aims to get… (7 June)
Prices to decrease 47%
Prices to increase more slowly 42%
Don't know 11% pic.twitter.com/0llokiJO2Q— Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) June 10, 2023
which suggests that nearly half of those polled expected that, when Rishi Sunak says he aims to halve inflation, prices will fall. That in turn suggests that those people are going to be disappointed even if he reaches his target. This doesn’t augur well for a Conservative recovery and, in truth, even if inflation overall was reduced to 5% or less, if people still feel poorer, they’re hardly going to give Rishi much credit.
Mind you, he has claimed that he will reduce national debt, indicating that someone in his team still hasn’t worked out the difference between debt and deficit. Didn’t Rishi work for Goldman Sachs though? And given that the Office for Budget Responsibility is predicting a budget deficit of £131.6 billion in 2023/24, it’s a brave soul who’d fancy his chances by the time of the next General Election.
Indeed, when will that General Election be? Thanks to Rishi’s best mate and most loyal supporter, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, we’ll get three interesting tests of how far Conservative support has cratered and how keen the British public are to get them out. Liberal Democrats are all over Mid Bedfordshire both physically and metaphorically, whilst Labour clearly have their eyes set on Uxbridge and South Ruislip. For me, in many ways, Selby and Ainsby is the one to watch. It requires a huge swing from Conservative to Labour for them to lose but, if Labour even get close, then fear will spread further through the Conservative ranks in the Commons and it will become ever harder for them to regain any sense of discipline.
Regardless, our focus is going to be on Mid Bedfordshire over the coming weeks. It does warm one’s heart to see so many of our campaigners already out on the doorsteps “with leaflets and canvass cards”, and I hope to do a turn at some point soon. And, if you needed any motivation to get yourself to Flitwick and the surrounding area, Helen Morgan very kindly reminded us of a similar by-election just eighteen months ago:
I’m just leaving this here pic.twitter.com/GNgUpq0YKz
— Helen Morgan MP 🔶 (@HelenMorganMP) June 9, 2023
Out of interest, has anyone heard anything from Alok Sharma?…
* Mark Valladares is the Monday Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice.
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6 Comments
Rate of change of change is something that most people only associate with driving. If you polled people “does accelerating less quickly mean you are going slower?” the overwhelming majority would correctly say “no”. But for other forms of acceleration – such as price acceleration – it appears to be a more abstract concept.
It is a matter of simple calculus. Speed, acceleration and inflation are all derivatives.
Mark,
when Sunak talks of reducing national debt, I am pretty sure he means as a % of GDP. As the inflation Poll you cite makes clear, many would nevertheless interpret this statement as a commitment to reducing public debt in absolute terms rather than proportionally.
Rachel Reeves for Labour is being rather cautious on these issues as they develop the Labour manifesto Rachel Reeves blames Tory government for ‘crashing economy’ as party rows back on key pledge
@ Mark,
I’m not surprised that many think a reduction in inflation means a reduction in prices. I’ve had similar conversations myself with others who think the same.
You might find it interesting if one of the polling companies were to do a survey on what they think of the National Debt. You might even be shocked by the number of people who think the world’s central banks and so the global financial system is controlled by the Rothschilds who organise annual meeting of the world’s leaders under the guise of the Bilderberg group.. I’ve had similar conversations with them too. It’s not easy trying to dissuade them.
It doesn’t help that all the major political parties, including the Lib Dems, use the size of the Govt’s deficits and debts as a political attack line. So when Sarah Olney has a go at the Tories for “borrowing too much” she re-enforcing a totally false image of Jeremy Hunt going cap-in-hand to a group of Jewish bankers and being told what he needs to do in return for the loan.
So if you are going to criticise the government, and It won’t be any different under Labour, about debts and deficits at least try to explain what they mean and why we need them.
Polling like this is fascinating. It reveals how much thinking is a long the lines of putting two and two together and making twenty-two. But we can learn from it.
What depresses me is the complete lack of any non political thinking from the two major parties. Both are finely focused on winning the next GE. What would benefit the country is a distant second, despite the imaginative spin. A leader who can rise above pure political gain will reap huge rewards from the electorate.