Boris Johnson has just announced at his London Mayor press conference that he’s standing down as MP for Henley. By-election to follow shortly…
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19 Comments
I was ringing some voters there last night. A lot of the Lib Dems were very keen, the Conservative voters hadn’t really noticed there might be an election, and the Labour vote was so soft it could audition to be the Andrex puppy.
Much better going than (say) anywhere in Bromley & Chislehurst…
A golden opportunity.
WHERE ARE YOU?! WHERE ARE YOU?! LET’S BE ‘AVIN YOU! COME ON!
Who? Me? So Chris K, do you think that the Lib Dems are going to win in Henley?
Won’t all this by-election nonsense disrupt the real business of Henley, which is, of course, Regatta Week?
“Who? Me?”
No, it was a mere rhetorical point, and an opportunity to allow myself a chuckle at Delia.
Passing Tory: I don’t know.
But while you’re here, maybe you can tell me, what’s the airspeed of an unladen swallow?
African or European?
(Sorry, I really really tried to resist…..)
Really hope the lib Dems get this one.
I will be sure to get to Henley for a weekend before the byelection- but I don’t understand everyone’s optimism.
Seems to me we need:
i) to get the vast majority of the Labour vote
ii) to achieve a large swing against a buoyant Conservative party
iii) Perhaps eke out a few extra votes with a higher turnout
I’m not even that sure i) is all that guaranteed as we would normally hope…
All of this while the Tories will make great play of our non local candidate and seem to be harping on about our local income tax hurting many; howon Earth are we gonna win this one?!
P.S. Forgive me, I am an eternal pessimist
i) is easy: given a choice between Conservatives and Lib Dems, Labour voters don’t want the Conservatives. (Labour voters in this kind of seat tend to be Labour, rather than swing voters.)
ii) The ‘buoyancy’ of the Conservatives nationally is happening because Labour are so unpopular. This needn’t affect the result of a two-horse race between Conservatives and Lib Dems.
iii) substantial majorities in essentially uncontested seats hide the fact that a certain number of people who would support the second/other parties in the seat don’t see any point in voting. Strong momentum behind a challenger can get these people out to vote.
and iv) the Conservative candidate might have some weaknesses.
so it’s not so bad after all.
Michael,
All your points applied equally to Bromley (amd ere repeatedly cited as reasons not to go and help)
No-one is saying we are going to cruise to an easy win, but a win is a serious possibility.
How much help turns up early will be a key factor.
One thing that could sink the Lib Dem campaign is satellite surveillance of motor vehicles.
Nick Clegg needs to bury this one pronto and trumpet his libertarian credentials.
If Nick is prepared to go so far as to refuse to carry an ID card, then he can uphold the right of citizens to drive around the country without being watched by the state.
Also, what was Clegg on about @ PMQ’s today… preventing remittances being sent to Zimbabwe?!
This is an opportunity for Nick Clegg to really stamp his mark and define his leadership.
If the Conservatives take less than 60% of the vote it is a backward step for Cameron, but if they take less than 50% of the vote they could lose it.
Apparently the Labour candidate is known as ‘Basher’, and having gleaned some of the reasons it appears entirely appropriate – not so much a heavyweight candidate as just a heavyweight with heavyhands. Mr McKenzie has been parachuted in from Reading where he appears to have made himself very unpopular, so it seems if this is all Labour are reduced to they are already giving up their deposit.
Michael ,re local income tax.
Abolishing Council tax and replacing with Local income tax is hugely beneficial to the lower paid much,much, more than the 10p rate. The answer to the Tory charges on LIT is simple.The combination of no council tax,LIT and a 4p cut in income tax means virtually all tax payers save.
A thought why doesn,t Vince Cable hold town hall meeting to explain Lib Dem tax cuts.
rogerh
RogerH:”The combination of no council tax,LIT and a 4p cut in income tax means virtually all tax payers save.”
Are you suggesting that the average tax burden will go down? Or do you mean that non-taxpayers (presumably the poor) will be the ones paying more? All sounds a bit strange to me.
Henley is a great opportunity, win or lose, to highlight the gulf between our policies and those of the Tories. I just hope we have a real go about Council Tax.
As a state pensioner couple, a quarter of our pension goes on this most unfair of taxes. The state pension for a couple is under £10,000 a year, but we are expected to pay the same tax as those on average earnings of £20,000 plus, a year. Add to that the current fuel and food price rises and many of us are really feeling the pinch.
I would like to hear us make a lot more noise about LIT.
Elizabeth Patterson
Unfortunately, scrapping the UK’s only domestic property tax, albeit a totally iniquitous one, will add £20k to the average price of a home. Replacing property tax with a tax on jobs means a double whammy for the young and the poor.
I would like to hear us making a lot more noise about the fair taxation of unearned property wealth (deferred for income poor pensioners) and our embryonic policies to shift taxes off work – still the best route out of poverty, they say.