The time for spin is over; the time for slide rules has started. Yes, it’s time for the Liberal Democrat Voice leadership election prediction competition.
To enter the competition, post a comment to this message by 8am on Tuesday 18th December giving your predictions for:
- Nick Clegg’s percentage share of the vote, to one decimal place
- Chris Huhne’s percentage share of the vote, to one decimal place
- Percentage turnout, to one decimal place
Clegg and Huhne’s percentages will be calculated excluding spoilt ballot papers. Percentage turnout will be calculated including spoilt ballot papers.
One point will be awarded for each one tenth of a percent by which your prediction is out. E.g. if you predict turnout will be 23.4% and it is 23.6%, this will count as two points. Lowest total score wins. If more than one person ties on the same score, the winner will be chosen by lot.
The winner will win an exciting prize. It’s too exciting to mention now (we’re worried about burglars targeting Liberal Democrat Voice Towers if we said what it was). But it exists. And is exciting.
One entry per person only. All predictions must be submitted using a valid email address.
Predict away…
UPDATE: The competition, and hence commenting on this post, is now closed.
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83 Comments
Chris Huhne 51.3%
Nick Clegg 48.7%
Turnout 68.4%
Nick Clegg 53.2
Chris Huhne 46.8
Turnout 63.9
Nick Clegg 54.2%
Chris Huhne 44.8
Turnout 64.6
Nick Clegg 54.5%
Chris Huhne 45.5%
Turnout 67.0%
Nick Clegg 53.8%
Chris Huhne 46.2%
Turnout 68.2%
Nick Clegg 58.9%
Chris Huhne 41.1%
Turnout 63.7%
Nick Clegg 53.1%
Chris Huhne 46.9%
Turnout 61.7%
Nick Clegg 53.1%
Chris Huhne 46.9%
Turnout 63.7%
Nick Clegg 61.1%
Chris Huhne 38.9%
Turnout 70.2%
Nick Clegg 60%
Chris Huhne 40%
Turnout 63%
Nick Clegg 51.2%
Chris Huhne 48.8%
Turnout 75.6%
Nick Clegg – 52.3%
Chris Huhne – 47.7%
Turnout – 69.0%
Nick Clegg – 56.2%
Chris Huhne – 45.8%
Turnout 72.1%
Nick Clegg – 55.6%
Chris Huhne – 44.4%
Turnout – 64.3%
Nick Clegg: 52.6%
Chris Huhne: 47.4%
Turnout: 64.8%
Nick Clegg 52.1%
Chris Huhne 47.9%
Turnout 83.1%
Nick Clegg – 55.2%
Chris Huhne – 44.8%
Turnout – 65.0%
Nick Clegg – 50.4%
Chris Huhne – 48.1%
Turnout – 61%
Nick Clegg – 54.5%
Chris Huhne – 45.5%
Turnout – 76.3%
Nick Clegg – 53.3%
Chris Huhne – 46.7%
Turnout – 65.3%
Sorry subtraction error.
Nick Clegg – 56.2%
Chris Huhne – 43.8% <–
Turnout 72.1%
Chris Huhne – 50.1%
Nick Clegg – 49.9%
Turnout – 72.5%
Chris Huhne -50.2%
Nick Clegg – 49.8%
Turnout 79.0 %
Clegg 44.5%
Huhne 36.5%
Cable (write in) 20%
Turnout 50%
Nick Clegg 49.9%
Chris Huhne 50.1%
Turnout 67.3%
Nick Clegg 54.1%
Chris Huhne 45.9%
Turnout 69.5%
Clegg 53.5
Huhne 46.5
Turnout 61.5
Nick Clegg 49.8%
Chris Huhne 50.2%
Turnout 67.1%
Chris Huhne 47.2.3%
Nick Clegg 52.8%
Turnout 59.6% (low I know but so many people have struggled to decide)
Chris Huhne 50.3%
Nick Clegg 49.7%
Turnout 62.4%
Clegg 56.2
Huhne 43.8
turnout 72.5
Clegg 52%
Huhne 48%
Turnout 71%
Nick Clegg 53.3
Chris Huhne 46.7
Turnout 68.6
Though I’ll almost certainly be quite wrong. And happier the closer the upper two are, and the higher the last figure is
Nick Clegg 60.4
Chris Huhne 39.6
Turnout 62.1
Archibald Sinclair 50.1%
Herbert Samuel 49.%
TurnoutL 78%
Alex @ 33: Blimey, your figures are all within 0.5 of mine. Is that our Essex politics training at work?
Nick Clegg 52.1%
Chris Huhne 47.9%
Turnout 58.1%
Nick Clegg – 52.5%
Chris Huhne – 47.5%
Turnout – 59.2%
Clegg – 56.1%
Huhne – 43.9%
Turnout – 54.7%
Nick Clegg 54.1
Chris Huhne 44.9
Turnout 71
whoops
Nick Clegg 54.1%
Chris Huhne 45.9
Turnout 71
Nick Clegg 54.9%
Chris Huhne 45.1%
Turnout 73.8%
Clegg 54.9%
Huhne 45.1%
Turnout: 68.3%
Nick Clegg 49.7%
Chris Huhne 49.7%
Turnout 73.3%
The toss will be called by Clegg who will choose tails and loose.
Clegg 54.3%
Huhne 45.7%
Turnout 71.2%
Clegg – 53.1%
Huhne – 46.9%
Turnout – 70.0%
Clegg – 51.7%
Huhne – 48.3%
Turnout – 74.7%
Clegg – 58.4
Huhne – 41.6
turnout – 74.3
Clegg 53.2%
Huhne 46.8%
Turnout 73.9%
just a vague recap of the scores so far, clegg leads 40 or so to Huhne’s 4
Clegg 62.3%
Huhne 37.7%
Turnout 65.4%
Clegg: 54.4%
Huhne: 45.6%
Turnout: 66.7%
Clegg 52.8%
Huhne 47.2%
Turnout 71%
Clegg 53.3%
Huhne 46.7%
Turnout 63.1%
Clegg 50.1
Huhne 49.9
Turnout 47%
Clegg 53.4
Huhne 46.6
Turnout 63.4
Clegg 55.3
Huhne 44.7
Turnout 67.4
Clegg 47.6
Huhne 52.4
Turnout 66.7%
Nick Clegg 49.95%
Chris Huhne 50.05%
(after a recount)
Turnout: 63.8%
Nick Clegg 51.2
Chris Huhne 48.8
Turnout 64.3
Clegg: 52.4
Huhne: 47.6
Turnout: 56.4
(of course I’m not allowed to win)
On the basis of the predictions here it has to be:
Clegg 90%
Huhne 10%
Turn out 100%
Can I enter twice???!
More seriously……….
Clegg 62.6%
Huhne 36.3%
Spoilt papers 1.1%
Turn out 61.3%
Clegg 59.2%
Huhne 40.8%
Turnout 65.6%
Clegg 62.0%
Huhne 38.0%
Turnout 69.6%
Huhne 50.1%
Clegg 49.9%
Turnout 74%
Clegg 57.4%
Huhne 42.6%
Turnout 67.0%
Huhne 52.3%
Clegg 47.7%
Turnout 67.4%
Clegg 52.8%
Huhne 47.2%
Turnout 73.6%
Huhne 52.0
Clegg 48.0
Turnout 71.2
Nick Clegg: 68%
Chris Huhne: 32%
Turnout: 56.5%
Clegg 53.1%
Huhne 46.9%
Turnout 60%
Chris Huhne: 51.7%
Nick Clegg: 48.3%
Turnout: 69.7%
Nick Clegg 53.5%
Chris Huhne 46.5%
Turnout: 65%
Clegg 56.4%
Huhne 43.6%
Turnout 64%
Clegg 47.1%
Huhne 52.9%
Turnout 81.1%
Clegg 53.2%
Huhne 46.8%
Turnout 64.8%
Clegg 61.1%
Huhne 38.9%
Turnout 70.1%
Clegg – 57.7%
Huhne – 42.3%
Nick Clegg 50.1%
Chris Huhne 49.9%
Turnout 67.7%
Clegg 49.7%
Huhne 50.3%
Turnout 65.6%
Clegg 57.2%
Huhne 42.8%
Turnout 71.1%
Clegg: 55%
Huhne: 45%
T/out: 65%