NEW POLL: what will be the result of the next general election?

Gordon Brown’s Labour Party took a pounding in last week’s local elections, and a new YouGov poll sees them trailing the Tories by 26% – so calling a general election is probably the last thing on the Prime Minister’s mind this morning. He can, after all, delay going to the country for another two years.

But the question LDV is asking is this: what do you think is the most likely outcome of the next general election? Here are your choices:

> a Labour victory with a Commons majority
> Labour largest single party but no overall majority
> Conservative largest single party but no overall majority
> a Conservative victory with a Commons majority

I know, I know – there’s no option for picking a Lib Dem working majority… use the comments thread for a write-in campaign if you feel strongly.

Result of last poll:

We asked LDV readers: Should deaf couples be allowed to use embryo-screening technology to choose to have a deaf child?

Here’s what you told us:
– Yes they should: 50 (11%)
– No they should not: 378 (81%)
– Don’t know: 37 (8%)
Total Votes: 465 Poll ran: 14th April to 9th May 2008

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20 Comments

  • Adrian if that really is you thats very far from what Nick has said and as Stephen has pointed out.
    People are not stupid to go from 63 seats to Government would be nothing short of the third coming. I am passionate that one day we will have & must have a Lid Dem government but in 2010??
    I think Nicks view is spot on and if we get more then great but lets make ourselves look stupid with such posts of “oh yes we can win in one foul swoop” its nonsense and you know it.all it does in reinforce what some people think of of us, while Nicks considered approach sounds logical and achievable in time.

    I am in my mid thirties and hope that before I am an old man we have a Lid Dem administration , I would give it 3 elections and the political cycle blowing back our way….it has been 100 years!

  • Whilst the realistic thing is to double the number of MPs, I can’t help but feel that we really don’t have enough “fight them on the beaches”, playing to win kind of talk in the party. There’s enough local parties, who’s gigantic levels of apathy hold us back. They don’t need any help. Whist within the leadership of the party the aim may be to double the number of MPs… and yes it is useful to have that as a measure of Nick’s success… I feel on the whole we need to focus more on an attitude of believing in ourselves and that we can succeed. Many would say its not possible… but then there are lots of other things people have said are not possible… woman prime ministers, black men in the presidential race… a prat like Boris becoming mayor…

  • Miranda I agree 100% about local parties, mine(and I mention no names but those of you that know me will now them) are ONLY interested in the council. They could not give a monkeys about the parliamentry seats, and have the attatude of many of our “older” councilors that they are not interested in politics…its more about power and keeping it for self reasons.
    Compare that to the Tories who consider council as a means to an end, they are much more political and will try to win everything in site from parish to westminster or Euro seats.

    Our mind set at ground level is sometimes thinking small, so we stay small.
    I loth the Tories in many ways but winning is in their DNA…we just like to do what we can…a little like the kid that wants to stay off everyones radar at school in case they get picked on.

    I hope/d under Nick we would become more aggressive at ground level but many will not play ball as they have no concern what happens at a national level, no matter who the leader or policy.

    Anyway thats my rant, but until we do what the Tories have done and get a grip on our local parties(not to say they don’t stay independent) then we will just go on as plucky losers or just a party of he protest vote.
    Until we have total by-in from the ground up I fear any GE win is a way off yet.

  • …A lib dem minority win?

    Look, I’m not going to go into details about campaigning but those who know how we run our parliamentary campaigns at a regional and national level surely know its not going to happen even in a best case scenario.

  • Letters From A Tory poses an interesting scenario – Labour ‘shedding’ seats and us LibDems worse off too.

    Totting this up, then surely Cameron has got more wind in his sails than Blair and Thatcher combined,and is likely to get a majority of, what, 200, 250?

    Dream on while you can, tory boy. Reality comes crashing down on the illusion sooner than you will ever notice, so don’t work up too much of a lather trying to present this small local election victory as triumph worthy of a caesar!

  • Yes, the Tories will soon be imploding when BoJo is a lamentable failure, when the wingnuts rear their heads and show people what the Tory party is really like, when the educated and progressive people who are softly leaning towards Camoron back away from him and his mates.

    See Camoron’s article in the Independent. As repuslive and insincere as it was, it shows that politicians have to talk liberal language: Mail “readers” are quite literally dying out every year, and good riddance. Voters will realise who the liberals are.

  • I am going to defend the poll. Why? Of course we should work to win as many seats as possible but we do need to engage with reality. Yes, there is a perception that the Lib Dems can’t win and that does damage our vote.

    It’s an argument we do have to win but we dont do it by saying we are ‘preparing for power’ or making some other kind of absolutist statement. We do it with engaging with what people are thinking and saying well maybe you are right that we are small but won’t change that unless you help us grow. I think the best way we can present ourselves in the next two years is as being the real party of progressive opposition with fresh and radical ideas and see where that takes us.

  • If the poll is meant to give those of us who visit this site an opportunity to say what we think will happen at the next election, then it should allow all the options.

    Within the last twelve months we have had a period when Gordon Brown looked unassailable to a position where the tories are currently well ahead.

    With up to two years to go before the next election anything is possible.

  • All very interesting for yesterday, today & possibly next week.What this does show is that the public are very volatile – increasingly so.To draw conclusions about an election two years away would be foolish (a week is along time etc etc)& as we all know that under our corrupt system its not how many votes you get – its where you get them. Still all to play for.

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