It appears inevitable that the next General Election will leave the country with a radically changed electoral map. The combination of an economic crisis, a discredited and divided Labour Government, and an underlying desire for ‘change’ looks certain to make the 2010 General Election the most significant this century.
I intend to write two articles which I hope will prompt debate inside Liberal Democrat circles about how our party can best prepare for the dual challenge of winning at the expense of Labour, whilst ensuring that so many seats won since 1997 are not lost to a rising Conservative tide.
To be clear, I am approaching this issue with a keen eye on psephology; the focus is more upon how we should campaign in key marginal seats as opposed to what the overarching Liberal Democrat policy platform should be. Today I will focus upon our battle with the Conservatives; outlining our potential vulnerability and then discussing ways in which we can best repel the real threat that is posed by David Cameron’s party.
As many Liberal Democrat activists will be very aware, the great majority of our Parliamentary seats were won at the expense of the Conservatives. When they were at their lowest ebb in 1997, the party made 25 gains from the Tories, with more following in 2001. 2005 was a more mixed picture, despite our increased share of the vote nationally, we recorded a net loss of two seats against the Conservatives, perhaps an early indication of how tough the battle may be this time around.
All Liberal Democrats must accept that David Cameron’s party will pose a great threat to us in 2010. The polls currently have the Tories consistently above 40% and on the swings currently being predicted, as much as half of our Parliamentary party would be in danger of losing their seats. I realise that polls are not foolproof and am fully aware that uniform swings do not occur in reality; but it is clear that the Conservatives are a resurgent force and are set to record a dramatically higher share of the vote than in 2005.
Whenever I have seen discussion on this subject discussed before, Lib Dem activists in LD/Con marginals tend to cite 3 factors they believe are essential to LD campaigning in these seats:
1. Promoting the Lib Dem MP, the ‘incumbency factor’,
2. Not overplaying national issues and selling the LD candidate as a ‘local champion’,
3. Squeezing the Labour vote.
I believe that at the next election, our strategy has to move on from a reliance on these three a campaigning techniques. In most instances, we have squeezed the Labour vote to a rump of about 10%, and little more can be done to bring this number down further. Equally, with a strong national mood for ‘change’, I believe that national issues may be of greater importance to lots of voters than the concept of having a ‘local champion’ as their MP. This is not to detract from these strategies, but to assert that on their own, I don’t believe they will be sufficient to win a straight fight against the Conservatives.
I want people from across the party to read this article and make their own suggestions as to how we can develop new ways to beat the Conservatives… Here are a couple of my own:
1. I believe we must make a big effort to make a contrast between our positive vision for changing Britain and the Conservatives’ insistence on talking the country down. The Conservative party is becoming more and more negative, continually talking of ‘the broken society’, stirring up fear about crime and social breakdown and appealing to people’s worst instincts. We must draw a clear line between us and them on this issue – reaffirming that we are in politics not to talk Britain down but to reshape the country with a set of bold policies.
2. The Tories will clearly play the card that the only way to bring about ‘change’ is to vote for them, as only they can defeat Labour. We must emphasise that in opposition, Lib Dem MPs have brought about change as well. The Gurkha victory is of course the single best example of this, but at I am convinced that we must always make every effort to reinforce to the electorate that we do wield power in Parliament and that our MPs can exert real power on their constituents behalf.
I hope that this post succeeds in getting people thinking about how best to fight the Tory challenge. I look forward to you responses!
* Andrew Lewin is a Lib Dem member and activist in Hertford and Stortford.
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15 Comments
I think both of these suggestions are sensible, especially the first one – people will get fed up with this doom and gloom.
Another point we could make is that “strong government” is not necessarily an unalloyed good. Look at what 12 years of strong Labour government has brought: war in Iraq, ID-cards, assaults on civil liberties, huge increases in public spending (partly on borrowed money) for little result. We should be making the case for a strong third party to keep the Conservatives from doing anything stupid (because, let’s face it, they will be the next government).
Niklas – agree, and we should play up the Vince factor – “we were right before anyone else was”.
Another danger not discussed here is the Tory jibe of “a vote for the Lib Dems lets Labour in”. They will be playing this for all its worth – only a Tory MP will guarantee you a change, the Lib Dems might let Gordon back in etc. We need to prepare our defence against this.
A direct counter challenge to the point Steve makes would be to point out that the Tories are so far ahead in the polls that an overall victory is very likely even if they do vote for us. Wouldn’t necessarily work in marginals, but I think a lot of people are quite hazy about the connect between their own ballot paper and the national government.
A more positive version of this negative point might be: vote for us because we’ll keep the Tories honest on the economy, taxation and civil liberties. Treat it as if they’re already in power and need effective opposition which Labour can no longer provide.
(Which has the merit of basically being the truth!)
The next parliament’s prospects for the LDs are not solely determined by the number of seats won, but also the distribution of the other seats. Losing 15 seats but facing 285 Tory and 285 Labour MPs is surely more promising than having 70 MPs but facing 350 Tories and another 5 years of irrelevance, and the behaviour of LD sympathisers in Con-Lab marginals is a key factor in determining which outcome occurs. What is being done to address this?
alex mortimer,so your saying ,the lib dems should lie to the british public,well nothing new they then.The euro’s are coming up and I hope the british people remember what the lib dems did on the lisbon treaty vote or the non vote.
Andrew – should this debate not be in the private members only forum???
“,so your saying ,the lib dems should lie to the british public”
Which part of “Which has the merit of basically being the truth!” did you not understand, tykejohnno?
“Which part of “Which has the merit of basically being the truth!” did you not understand, tykejohnno?”
I was about to type the exact same thing.
So back to the usual Conservatory smears. Yawn. This how you’re planning on carrying on in power?
Alix mortimer,ok,lie is a to stronger word to use,what about fool the British public,you say vote for us to keep the tories honest on the economy,you use the word ‘honest’your party was’nt to honest on the lisbon treaty were you,for god sake who will keep the lib dems honest ?
Sounds obvious, but I’d suggest the first thing is to get to know the opposition.
Tim Montgomerie detailed a ConservativeHome survey of the 148 expected new Tory MPs in The Times: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6195108.ece
And there’s a scan of a helpful graphic here: http://ceedee.co.uk/what-will-the-next-tory-government-look-like
It suggests to me that LibDems need to give Tory candidates plenty of rope…
I can think of quite a few Lib Dem seats where there are still plenty of Labour votes to be squeezed and even 10% if squeezed well could make the difference.
The themes that can catch on nationally are becoming clear. LibDems are:
– “The Party of the Underdog” :Stephen Tall’s inspiration,
– “The Party of Freedom” : Labour don’t know where this ground is; and Cameron conceded it when he did not back David Davis,
– “The Party that knows What Needs to be Done” : ground largely captured by Vince.
I doubt if anyone central can say how to balance these appeals in a particular constituency; but together they look potentially powerful in a lot of places.
In response to the core question-How can the Liberal Democrats hold existing Seats in the face of the Tories and make the most of the ills of this listless Labour Government?
1.All L/D PPC`s and MP`s should read and digest the practical formula for winning against the incumbent Tories in Yeovil and Somerset.Paddy Ashdown`s recipe as recollected in his prized autobiography `A Fortunate Life’,for winning against the Tories and Labour, is a tour de force and there are many master class lessons, that still apply and transferable from 1983 to 2009 and 2010.
2.L/D MP`s and PPC`s are the politicians that stand for community politics and are not clones of `Big Government’,Trade Union Bosses or Siamese twins of the greedy City Bankers kind that have caused the slowdown and `Recession’.
3.The L/D `s have singled out and performed best on all important issues of conscience, including the principled stands on the Economy and what has to be done (Vince Cable) ,ID Cards and National d/b and child criminal records (Chris Huhne) and Educational and Equity in Funding in Schools (David Laws) Climate Change and Global Warming and `No Third London Airport (Simon Hughes and all London L/D`s and Cllrs)
4.At the last Harrogate Conference Howard Dean one of Barrack Obama`s key election platform advisers told us to value equally.All supporters and offers of support were all uniquely valuable and that candidates should ensure that everyone was given a job and made to feel part of the team and bigger Liberal family.This message is so important to get out to galvanise the maximum support for door knocking,telephone canvassing Focus Delivery etc.
5.Nick Clegg has demonstrated in Parliament, that he has caught the national mood with his passionate enthusiasm,in holding this tired and rudderless Government, to democratic
account,on the Economy,the Gurkha.MP`s Expenses and Sri Lanka and so on.
I predict a real battle for the hearts and minds of voters in the London Euro Elections on June 4th and look for 3 new L/D MEP`s for the Capital.
A high turnout of over 40% is important in our plural PR electoral system on June 4th.
I believe that the L/D stock and character is strong and that it will be Labour and Tories,BNP and Greens,whom suffer the arrows of voter apathy and protest at their hollow message and vacuous promises that residents will call time on.
Found a relevant link to an earlier LDV article on this topic: https://www.libdemvoice.org/helpful-advice-from-the-tories-about-how-to-beat-them-at-the-next-election-10987.html
Mr Taylor argues that big poll leads will be a disadvantage for the Conservatives in Lib Dem marginals that we can benefit from – if the government’s changing anyway why not keep “my cuddly local Lib Dem MP”, as Jonathan Isaby wrote on ConHome. A sense of inevitable Tory victory also weakens their argument that voting for a Lib Dem risks keeping Gordon Brown in power.
just a historical note on liberal/libdem losses, the last time we lost half our MPs atone go was 1970. In fact the last election we had any loss was in 1992, about one in ten. Just remember that many of the commentators talking about tory landslides now thought that 1997 would be “a damn close run thing”.