In the 1950s and 1960s, the leader of the Liberal party, Jo Grimond, believed our long-term aim should be to supplant the Labour party as the main party of the left in Britain. Over half a century later, our current leader, Sir Ed Davey, has said that it is the Tories that we should push into third party status.
Both these strategies assumed that the Labour-Conservative duopoly was too strong to be completely removed. Over the past couple of years, this assumption has been put to the test by Nigel Farage and Reform UK (RUK). Now the old duopoly is weaker than ever before, as support for Labour and the Conservatives crumbles. RUK’s rise to prominence should alarm liberals, given their policies on taxation, immigration, renewable energy, and flags, but there is a silver lining to this large cloud. The rise of RUK presents a golden opportunity for the Liberal Democrats to eclipse both Labour and the Conservatives in terms of political power and relevancy.
During the recent local elections, only RUK and the Liberal Democrats exhibited any material amount of growth, with the Conservatives reeling from a wipeout and Labour sliding backwards. As such, in many places, a RUK-Liberal Democrat contest for power will be the defining lens through which politics is viewed. In Cornwall, Gloucestershire, and Devon RUK is likely to be the official opposition to a Liberal Democrat led administration. The Liberal Democrats are also now the second largest party in many areas where RUK is the largest party, including Durham, Warwickshire, and Kent. These sorts of contests will be very beneficial for us. According to YouGov, the Liberal Democrats stand to benefit more from tactical voting against RUK than either Labour or the Conservatives.