The latest You Gov MRP poll shows us gaining slightly in both vote share and seats from 2017 but still gives Boris Johnson a majority. But before we all panic, the figures show that we can stop him and gain more seats.
The headline figures have the Tories on 339, Labour on 231, us on 15, the Greens on 1, Plaid on 4 and the SNP on 41.
The study has us on 12% and with 15 seats. That doesn’t ‘t tell the whole story. Seats like Lewes, Finchley and Golders Green (Luciana Berger) and Cities of London and Westminster (Chuka Umunna) are in reach for us if we can squeeze that Labour vote.
North East Fife has moved from being SNP two weeks ago to a toss up and Caithness has gone from a 1% SNP lead to a 4% Lib Dem lead.
If these results were replicated, we would gain St Albans, Richmond Park, South Cambridgeshire, Sheffield Hallam and Winchester by significant margins.
Here are the seats when we are in with a shout of a gain:Cheadle
Cheltenham
Esher and Walton,- Monica Harding could unseat Dominic Raab with the race tightening in the two weeks
Finchley and Golders Green, (Luciana Berger)
Guildford,
Hazel Grove,
Lewes
St Ives
Wokingham
Chelsea and Fulham – a longer shot but Labour votes switching to Lib Dem could see Nicola Horlick elected.
Ceredigion
The SNP could gain a few more seats from the Tories, too.
The take home from this poll is that a Tory majority is not inevitable.
Incredibly, Bolsover, one of the safest Labour seats in the country, is predicted to go Conservative. Who would have thought that Dennis Skinner would face electoral defeat at the hands of the Tories?
And on other side, Iain Duncan Smith also faces defeat by Labour in Chingford and Wood Green.
I suspect that this poll underestimates the Lib Dem vote from what I have seen and heard about on the ground in Lib Dem seats.