Stephen Tall

Nick v Nigel: the polls call it for Farage. Disappointing, but don’t panic! Here’s 3 reasons why you shouldn’t…

By Stephen Tall | Wed 2nd April 2014 - 10:30 pm

Farage cleggLast week we had one post-debate poll. It showed Farage won overall, but the split was more interesting: Labour and Lib Dem voters went for Nick, Tory and Ukippers for Nigel. As you’d probably expect.

This week we had two post-debate polls, and their results are remarkably similar. ICM says Clegg was reckoned to have won by 31% of viewers, Farage by 69%. YouGov says 27% preferred Clegg, 68% Farage.

ICM has released the breakdown of its poll. This week, Labour voters split (narrowly) in Farage’s favour, by 57% …

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Posted in Op-eds and Polls | Tagged , and | 56 Comments
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Stephen Tall

Nick v Nigel, Round 2: My second thoughts

By Stephen Tall | Wed 2nd April 2014 - 8:22 pm

clegg farage lbcLast week, there was no doubt in my mind that Nick Clegg won the debate – he quite simply out-classed Nigel Farage, and YouGov’s poll showed Labour and Lib Dem voters agreed (though not Tory and Ukip voters).

This week, it was much more evenly matched. The early part belonged to Nick. With the focus on the Ukip leader’s praise for Vladimir Putin as a “brilliant operator”, Nigel Farage was always going to be on the back-foot. He was, and Nick was able successfully to claim the calm …

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Posted in News | Tagged , and | 41 Comments
Caron Lindsay

Top of the Blogs: The Lib Dem Golden Dozen #369

By Caron Lindsay | Wed 2nd April 2014 - 6:53 pm

Welcome to the Golden Dozen, and our 369thth weekly round-up from the Lib Dem blogosphere … Featuring the seven most popular stories beyond Lib Dem Voice according to click-throughs from the Aggregator (23 – 29 March, 2014), together with a hand-picked quintet, normally courtesy of LibDig, you might otherwise have missed.

Don’t forget: you can sign up to receive the Golden Dozen direct to your email inbox — just click here — ensuring you never miss out on the best of Lib Dem blogging.

As ever, let’s start with the most popular post, and work our way down:

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Giles Goodall

Opinion: It’s official – Lib Dems are “most successful and influential” in Europe

By Giles Goodall | Wed 2nd April 2014 - 4:53 pm

Europe Day - European Union - Some rights reserved by Niccolò CarantiAhead of the second EU debate between Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage this evening, a timely new report has found that Liberal Democrats are the most influential British party in the European Parliament.

The analysis of MEPs’ voting records from VoteWatch Europe over the past five years by think tank Policy Network, finds that Liberal Democrats are the “most successful coalition partner” in the European Parliament and “have played a central role in policy-making in both Westminster and Brussels.”

As …

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Posted in News and Op-eds | Tagged , , and | 6 Comments
NewsHound

Nick Clegg talks of shock and disappointment at Sheffield’s Labour council refusing to accommodate vulnerable Syrian refugees

By NewsHound | Wed 2nd April 2014 - 3:33 pm

Syrian refugee children fleeing the violence in their country with their families pose for a picture on February 20, 2012 at a partially set up camp in Mafraq city, near Jordan's northern border with Syria.From today’s Guardian:

Nick Clegg has accused Labour council leaders in Sheffield of refusing to take a single refugee from Syria under the coalition government’s vulnerable persons relocation (VPR) scheme.

The deputy PM and Sheffield MP is furious that Labour put pressure on the coalition government to do more to help Syrian refugees but is refusing to offer practical help locally. Refugees have been arriving from Syria in the past few weeks under the government scheme.

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Stephen Tall

So how’s my scenario 3 – a Tory lead of 6% by May 2015 – working out then?

By Stephen Tall | Wed 2nd April 2014 - 2:50 pm

Time to dust down a post from last December looking at scenarios for the 2015 election based on current polling – two of which pointed to the Conservatives being likely to take a poll lead in the next year.

(NB: as then, please note my huge caveat – “the extent of the polling science on display here is me playing around on an Excel spreadsheet.”)

In particular, I was curious what might have happen to my third scenario in the meantime. So pasted below is what I wrote in December, but I’ve updated the graph to add the last four months’ average poll leads to see how they fit the trend-line. (The answer is pretty well.)

Scenario 3

File this under the heading “a bit of fun… probably” – let’s look at the whole parliament and insert a polynomial trendline to take us through to May 2015. Here’s what happens:

tory lead in may 2015 scenario 3

Under Scenario 3, then, the Conservatives bounce back from their mid-term slump to lead Labour by 6% come the next general election. It couldn’t happen – could it?

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Posted in News and Polls | Tagged , and | 20 Comments
The Voice

Liberal Democrat membership grows by over 500 in first quarter of 2014

By The Voice | Wed 2nd April 2014 - 1:56 pm

Lib Dems winning hereLiberal Democrat membership hit 44,000 in the first quarter of 2014, a rise of more than 1500 since the beginning of 2013. Parties in government tend not to increase their membership and last year’s results for the Liberal Democrats were the first time in recent history that this had been done.

This is in no small part down to new financial incentives to local parties if they increase their membership. If they have more members, they get more money to spend on their local campaigns. That means that they …

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Posted in News | Tagged and | 29 Comments
Caron Lindsay

Liberal Democrats put mental health on the agenda in Holyrood and Cardiff

By Caron Lindsay | Wed 2nd April 2014 - 12:30 pm

Phrenology head - mental health - Some rights reserved by evansvilleWe know that mental health has always been one of Nick Clegg’s top priorities. His first major speech as Liberal Democrat leader was on the subject. In the coalition, he, Paul Burstow and Norman Lamb have been pushing forward improvements to mental health care from making sure people in crisis see health professionals and not the inside of a Police cell, to a massive expansion of talking therapies to action to tackle the stigma that still exists.

A friend of mine has recently had some time off work for Depression. She wrote on Facebook, and asked people to share, the following:

What I do want to say is that until being off work for eight weeks with depression is regarded on equal footing with the same period of time off with a physical ailment of any kind ( from a hip replacement, to heart attack,stroke, badly broken limb, severe diabetes, or any of countless medical conditions ) then we will all suffer individually and as a society.

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Posted in News | Tagged , , , and | 5 Comments
Ab Brightman

Opinion: Young people benefit from the EU. We need to persuade them to vote for the party of IN

By Ab Brightman | Wed 2nd April 2014 - 10:59 am

Youth on the Move in Volos 20Each one of us who was glued to a screen or radio for the Nick vs Nigel EU debate last Wednesday will have our own opinion of who lost and who won as facts, rhetorical points and the affection of the audience were fought over. But I’ll tell you whose affection wasn’t fought over – that of Britain’s young people. And I, along with friends in and outside the party, was disappointed.

The lives of young people in this country – your children, your activists, you …

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , , , and | 9 Comments
Caron Lindsay

Tim Farron “will withdraw party’s support for Bedroom Tax”

By Caron Lindsay | Wed 2nd April 2014 - 9:54 am

Bedroom tax demo , all the photos taken with a iphone 5Ok, so we’ll overlook the Guardian’s inaccurate headline. Have they learned nothing from years of watching our policy making process? Tim Farron doesn’t have the power to do what the Guardian says he’s done:

The Liberal Democrat president, Tim Farron, will withdraw his party’s support for the bedroom tax on Wednesday, saying it has caused “huge social problems.”

I think he’s right, of course. It might just about be ok if there were suitable smaller properties for people to move into, or if …

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Posted in News | Tagged , and | 26 Comments
Caron Lindsay

It’s #NickvNigel Round 2 and we have bingo and billboards

By Caron Lindsay | Wed 2nd April 2014 - 8:00 am

Nick v Nigel Round 2 poster

Today the second debate on EU membership takes place between our Nick Clegg and UKIP leader Nigel Farage.

The image you see before you will be beaming down on commuters and shoppers in Tottenham Court Road, one of London’s busiest areas from around now. At least I think that’s the case. I’m only from Scotland.

It’s also fair to say that no social media timeline will be safe from the image of Cameron and Miliband missing

…

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Posted in News | Tagged , , and | 5 Comments
Stephen Tall

Vince Cable in his own words on the sale of Royal Mail

By Stephen Tall | Tue 1st April 2014 - 9:05 pm

Vincent CableThe publication of a report today by the National Audit Office criticising the “deep caution” of Vince Cable’s department in setting the sale price of shares in Royal Mail has, inevitably, been leapt on by opponents of the policy. Critics who would, of course, have been equally happy crowing if the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills had set the price too high causing the flotation flop.

Vince Cable went to the despatch box of the Commons today to defend his department’s actions, making headlines for unambiguously stating, “The last thing …

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Posted in Parliament | Tagged , , and | 56 Comments
The Voice

Congratulations, Jo Baker: Lib Dem Researcher of the Year!

By The Voice | Tue 1st April 2014 - 8:46 pm

Huge congrats to Jo Baker – researcher for Mark Williams, Lib Dem MP for Ceredigion – for winning The House Magazine and PoliticsHome.com’s Liberal Democrat Researcher of the Year!

Posted in Parliament | Tagged , , and | 1 Comment
Joe Bourke

Opinion: We can conquer unemployment

By Joe Bourke | Tue 1st April 2014 - 4:36 pm

unemploymentIn 1929, Lloyd George launched We Can Conquer Unemployment, the policy document that was to form the basis of the Liberals’ election campaign.

This week, George Osborne said “I am committed to securing the “fullest” possible level of employment by helping business to create new jobs and cutting taxes.”

Nick Clegg has said “… many people had accepted real terms pay cuts in recent years to safeguard their jobs and the government must continue to support them as well as creating the climate for new jobs. All I want is the maximum number of people to be employed in the economy and the minimum number to be jobless.”

Just as the productivity gains of the decades prior to the financial crash, were largely captured by the wealthiest in society, so too has the benefit of the asset price inflation generated by monetary policy accrued to the holders of capital at the expense of wage earners and savers.

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Posted in News | Tagged | 27 Comments
Adam Corlett

Opinion: Lib Dems only party to vote against khat drug ban

By Adam Corlett | Tue 1st April 2014 - 3:19 pm

Julian Huppert, Lib Dem PPC for Cambridge“To ban, or not to ban, khat is the question”, tweeted Julian Huppert on Monday morning. Unfortunately, Labour MPs later in the day joined their Tory (and DUP) counterparts in a statutory instrument committee to vote in favour of a ban. The two Lib Dem MPs, Huppert and Greg Mulholland, were defeated 16-2 and the khat trade now looks set to be criminalised.

On The Guardian website, Julian writes:

a mild stimulant – roughly on a par with a strong cup of coffee. It is not considered particularly addictive, and there’s no clear evidence that it causes either physical or social harms. It is imported perfectly legally, and taxes are paid on it, to the tune of £12.8m each year.

When the Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs, the government’s expert advisors, were asked to consider khat, they said that it would be “inappropriate and disproportionate” to ban it. The cross-party home affairs select committee, on which I serve, produced a unanimous report opposing a ban. And yet the home secretary plans to do it anyway.

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged and | 35 Comments
Ben Parker

The Independent View: Improving the lives of disabled people is essential for a stronger economy and fairer society

By Ben Parker | Tue 1st April 2014 - 2:31 pm

The role that Liberal Democrats play in drafting their party’s manifesto is unique in British politics.  So is the party’s approach to disability.

At the 2010 General Election the Liberal Democrats were the only party to produce a manifesto for disabled people. This pledged better employment support and improved recording of disability hate crime.

And in Government, the two Coalition Ministers responsible for social care reform are from Lib Dem benches – Paul Burstow and Norman Lamb.  Their commitment to improving social care support for disabled people has been clear.

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Posted in The Independent View | Tagged and | 3 Comments
Sam Phripp

Opinion: Criminals behind bars – do these ads go too far?

By Sam Phripp | Tue 1st April 2014 - 1:15 pm

crimeHave you seen this part of the LibDem website? It went live following the Nick v Nigel debate last week, and gives examples (and pictures) of criminals locked up thanks to the European Arrest Warrant. Like others, I find this page distasteful and discomforting. Yet still, I support it.

I actually missed the debate last Wednesday because I was attending a Parish Council meeting, but what I read on Twitter spoke volumes. Nick won the factual debate, but Farage did well on emotion. I think we need to remember that, because it’s key to the whole issue. As a party, we can win the debate on facts for as long as we like, but it won’t necessarily win us many votes. Why? Because that isn’t how people make decisions.

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 2 Comments
Mary Reid

In the media today, April 1st

By Mary Reid | Tue 1st April 2014 - 12:24 pm

spiralThe Guardian reveals plans for Scotland to switch to driving on the right after Independence. The article includes a video (which we can’t embed here) and uses a natty Lego model to explain how the crossover from left to right at the border will work .

To ease the transition, Scottish transport planners, under strict conditions of secrecy, have begun drawing up plans for a series of spiral interchanges at the major border transport nodes. These will transition drivers to the correct side of the road – whether travelling south–north or north-south – and avoid cross-border crashes – “a PR disaster worse than horsemeat in haggis”, according to one planner.

It is understood that another proposal involving traffic light sequencing has been rejected. Instead of red, amber, green, it would have become red, amber, blue. But there was a fear that this would be adopted south of the border by the Conservatives and so lose any distinctiveness.

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Posted in News | 13 Comments
The Voice

Strategic advances at Liberal Democrat Voice

By The Voice | Tue 1st April 2014 - 11:14 am

This week's Golden Dozen displayed via wordle.netWe at LDV towers are proud to announce a new strategy for Liberal Democrat Voice which will increase our influence within and beyond the party and leverage the capabilities of social media technologies to their full potential. This strategy makes full use of the unique placement we have as ‘our place to talk’ and premier online Liberal Democrat presence, as well as our regular authoritative members’ surveys.

The strategy has three essential, intertwined and synergistic elements:

1. We will be moving the site to the Nationbuilder platform …

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Posted in Humour and Site news | 12 Comments
Ian Jones

Opinion: What’s the right balance of smile and frown?

By Ian Jones | Tue 1st April 2014 - 10:15 am

facesJonathan Freedland in an article for the Guardian raises the critical subject of the right balance between positive and negative campaign messages and their effectiveness on the body politic. He does so in the context of September’s Scottish referendum over concern that the ‘NO’ campaign is increasingly characterised by fear, in spite of the fact that the overall message is ‘Better Together’.

The debate now under way has a resonance that extends beyond Scotland, touching all democratic politics. When opposing a proposal, or a government, what’s the right balance of smile and frown?

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Posted in News | Tagged | 1 Comment
Mark Pack

Liberal Democrats launch innovative – but controversial – online fundraising plan

By Mark Pack | Tue 1st April 2014 - 9:16 am

News reaches me of a potentially very effective but highly controversial fundraising move planned by Liberal Democrat HQ for the general election.

Back when I worked at party HQ, I was involved in trademarking the party’s logo so that the party was in a stronger legal position when dealing with cyber-squatters or producers of fake literature.

Now the party is planning to go one step further, trademarking the party’s name and starting to enforce the trademark, charging royalties for its use.

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Posted in News | Tagged | 11 Comments
Stephen Tall

Chris Huhne is a glass half-full kinda guy

By Stephen Tall | Mon 31st March 2014 - 9:15 pm

chris_huhneChris Huhne’s weekly column for The Guardian is a must-read for me. Mainly because his writing is just as you’d expect: not afraid to put some stick about (yeah, yeah: he takes no prisoners) but there’s plenty of sharp intelligence too.

And there’s a pretty hefty dollop of optimism this week, too, as he looks at the polls for evidence of a Lib Dem revival:

There was also a straw in the wind pointing to happier times: YouGov just found more people saying they would vote Lib Dem in the

…

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Posted in News | Tagged | 10 Comments
Michael Moore

Michael Moore MP’s Road to the Referendum… A Vote for the United Kingdom: A positive Choice

By Michael Moore | Mon 31st March 2014 - 3:57 pm

IMG_2186Making a positive choice for the United Kingdom in the vote on Scotland’s future is as much a matter of the heart as well as the head.  Recently, those involved in the argument for Scotland to remain in the United Kingdom have begun to argue more assertively that a vote for the UK is the positive choice.

We have just over five months to decide whether we stay in the United Kingdom family or go it alone. Five months to choose between remaining part of this four-nation partnership that we have built together or to break away and to start again.

I believe in the contribution Scotland has made over the last 300 years along with our friends and families across England, Wales and Northern Ireland – our common effort to create and share something bigger and that serves us all well.

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , and | 6 Comments
Caron Lindsay

Clegg slams Farage over “extreme” and “utterly grotesque” Putin comments

By Caron Lindsay | Mon 31st March 2014 - 3:15 pm

Nigel Farage MEPMost Liberals would have been choking into their Corn Flakes this morning upon reading that Vladimir Putin, who apparently has designs on Finland, is the object of Nigel Farage’s admiration.

I just think it is utterly grotesque that Nigel Farage apparently admires – and that was the question to him, ‘Who do you admire?’ – admires someone, Vladimir Putin, who has been the chief sponsor and protector of one of the most brutal dictators on the face of the planet, President Assad, who has blocked at every single

…

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Posted in News | Tagged , , , and | 14 Comments
The Voice

LDV Debate: Could One Member One Vote work for Liberal Democrat Conference?

By The Voice | Mon 31st March 2014 - 2:20 pm

Autumn 2012 conference - Some rights reserved by Liberal DemocratsSue Doughty and Gareth Epps discuss the issues.

Sue: During the consultation at conference and before conference there were many positive reasons to support this. For example, younger members who may not have a permanent address find it difficult to maintain links with a local party and so don’t get elected as voting reps and sadly some parties didn’t notify HQ of their voting reps.  Although conference can be expensive the work by Federal Conference Committee with York Local Party meant that there …

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , , and | 22 Comments
Caron Lindsay

In Full: Willie Rennie’s speech to Scottish Liberal Democrat Conference

By Caron Lindsay | Mon 31st March 2014 - 12:33 pm

Willie Rennie speaking at Lib Dem Spring conference, Liverpool 2008Willie Rennie’s crucial final leader’s speech before the independence referendum highlighted the party’s achievements in UK Government – 8 words, Taxes down, pensions up, new jobs, more childcare.

He also highlighted his team’s contribution in the Scottish Parliament, pressing the SNP government over 18 months until they expanded childcare for 2-4 year olds and fighting against the “wrecking ball” being taken to the justice system. He announced that the party would be putting down amendments aimed at properly regulating stop and search to …

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Caron Lindsay

LibLink: Lynne Featherstone: Two same sex weddings, one happy politician

By Caron Lindsay | Mon 31st March 2014 - 10:49 am

Protest against a constitutional amendment banning same sex marriageIt was a struggle to stay awake till midnight on Friday night because I’d been up at stupid o’clock to travel to Scottish Liberal Democrat conference. But I did, just to mark that very special moment when same sex marriages started to happen. In the morning, the scenes of happiness on the television news had me blubbing.

Both Nick Clegg and Lynne Featherstone talked over the weekend about how this isn’t just an important thing for the couples themselves. In his speech to Scottish …

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The Voice

In Full: Alistair Carmichael’s speech to Scottish Liberal Democrat Conference

By The Voice | Mon 31st March 2014 - 8:59 am

rally carmichaelCarmichael went all Pythonesque as part of the party’s “sunshine strategy” on Saturday at Scottish Liberal Democrat Conference in Aberdeen. “What has the UK ever done for us?”, he asked, apart from providing peace, prosperity and a whole great big list of other good things that we can’t do without.

He also spoke about the importance of supporting business to create jobs and prosperity in our communities.

Here is his speech in full:

 It is good to be back here in Aberdeen.

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Caspian Conran

Opinion: Ukip’s success masks its existential crisis

By Caspian Conran | Sun 30th March 2014 - 3:20 pm

ukip-poster-manchesterMany of us are deeply worried about what the rise of Ukip means for the future of the United Kingdom. However, take heart, Ukip’s success only makes the way for a more liberal, centralist and moderate future for Britain. For the success of Ukip facilitates one of the great aims of our party: the destruction of the two party system.

Nothing is of greater annoyance than canvassing a resident who, whilst admitting she broadly agrees with our message and policies, could not possibly vote Lib Dem. Why? Because her mother always …

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 40 Comments
Stephen Tall

Time for Nick Clegg to ditch the “Great Britain not Little England” line

By Stephen Tall | Sun 30th March 2014 - 11:45 am

england-flag“Great Britain not little England” – it was a line Nick Clegg used in his recent Spring conference speech, setting up the new political dividing lines between those who are optimistic, outward-looking, progressive pro-Europeans and those who are gloomy, isolationst, reactionary anti-Europeans.

It’s a line he used again in this week’s Nick v Nigel debate. “Great Britain, not Little England” was the subject line, too, of the party’s immediate post-debate email to supporters.

Clearly it’s a line the party believes encapsulates the main fault-line in British politics right now. …

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , , , , and | 37 Comments
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