Tag Archives: economy

Vince lays down the gauntlet to Alex Salmond

Lib Dem shadow chancellor, Vince Cable tonight addressed Reform Scotland on the action that needs to be taken to reform banking and protect the economic recovery. LDV is publishing extracts from Vince’s speech, below, including his call to SNP leader and Scotland’s First Minister Alex Salmond to follow the Lib Dems’ lead and state clearly how the Scottish government will live within its budget in the years ahead:

Banking
We need to rethink our approach to banking. Successive Labour and Conservative Governments have left Britain vulnerable to an over-inflated financial services sector, where institutions became too big to fail.

On a UK level – where British banks are 4.5 times bigger in terms of their liabilities than the country’s economy – this is bad enough. But in Scotland, this has been still more pronounced. At the time they got into trouble, RBS’ and HBOS’ liabilities were 25 times the size of Scotland’s economy.

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What will deficit politics look like?

Even the keenest, most aggressive deficit cutting rhetoric used in any of the main political parties still envisages a large deficit for many years to come. Politics over the next decade is likely to be hugely shaped by this backdrop. It won’t squeeze out all other issues but, just as the 9/11 terrorist atrocities caused civil liberties and foreign affairs to dominate much of the political debate in subsequent years, the deficit is likely to dominate over the next few.

What will the practical consequences of that be? What issues may come to dominate political debate?

Privatisation returns

How to cut debt? Selling …

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A new Conservative quango I quite like

Despite their professed enthusiasm for having a bonfire of the quangos, in practice the Conservative Party keep on announcing new ones – and have rather run in to trouble when pressed to explain what’s going on the bonfire (both points I wrote about here).

The tally of new quangos the Conservatives is now at least 19, which sits rather oddly with the rhetoric about culling them. However, that doesn’t mean all the individual proposals are bad ones.

One in particular which appeals to me is an Office of Tax Simplification.

Regular readers may have noticed my love of tangling with bureaucracy. (I …

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Daily View 2×2: 2 February 2010

Today is Groundhog Day, but I’ve resisted the temptation to simply give you yesterday’s Daily View again. It’s also the ancient Celtic festival of Imbolc, which symbolises the turning point of winter towards spring.

Twenty years ago today President FW de Klerk began to dismantle apartheid in South Africa, announcing that he had lifted the 30-year ban on the African National Congress, the Pan African Congress and the South African Communist Party. De Klerk also committed to release jailed ANC leader Nelson Mandela, who was freed nine days later. Commenting on the news, Nobel Prize winner Archbishop Desmond Tutu said: “He has taken …

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BBC economics: a little simplistic when it mixes the economic and political

Stephanie Flanders, the BBC’s economics editor, can be listed amongst those who have some influence on the public discussion of economic policy making in the UK. So her ‘Stephanomics‘ – which is part of the BBC News website – merits a read from time to time.

In a recent piece she suggests that there is a certain amount of solace for the Conservatives in what Ben Bernanke, head of the US Fed, has been saying about financial regulation in the UK. However, Stephanie gives what I think they call ‘a bum steer’ on the other side of ‘the pond’.

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Opinion: Take care with the economic medicine you prescribe

If cuts in public spending are savage and premature, then the consequences for our economic health could be even worse than the harm done to public services.

I’m sure you have all heard talk of: green shoots, economic recovery, lights at the end of various tunnels, and a return to growth. It is claptrap designed to support a return to business as usual – what might also be labelled the old order – and we’ve all been hearing it for months now.

Liberal Democrats should not be taken in. While we may be in the first phase of an epic electoral battle, and it may be politic to join the cutters and slashers in order to demonstrate just how serious we are about getting the country’s finances in order, Liberal Democrats know that it is simply mad to stand by while private and public finance are confused. While private austerity isn’t any more likely to be a guarantee of general prosperity than public parsimony is to be a warranty of private affluence, governments can pursue common goals in ways that are not open to us as individuals.

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Vince – Osborne’s policies are “Lib Dem Lite”

Today saw the Tory shadow chancellor George Osborne deliver his conference speech to the party faithful in Manchester, including setting out a number of spending cuts:

>> Public sector pay freeze in 2011 – except frontline military or people on less than £18,000
>> Keep 50p top tax rate for now
>> End Child Trust Funds for all but the poorest families
>> No tax credits for families earning over £50,000.

His Lib Dem opposite number Vince Cable is distinctly underwhelmed:

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So, what do we make of #ldconf so far, then?

I’ve just come from speaking at the ippr fringe event, The end of politics as we know it?, alongside Ming Campbell, Shirley Williams and Charles Clarke.

In my introductory remarks, I looked at the two big crises of the last 12 months – the economic crisis of recession, and the political crisis of MPs’ expenses scandals – and their impact on the Lib Dems, with special reference to this week’s conference. I approached the topic as (I hope) a constructively critical friend; harsh but fair was the reaction I was (I guess) looking for. Here’s more or less what I said – see if you think I got the balance right …

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A better politics for less: where Nick Clegg’s axe would fall

Nick Clegg has today launched a detailed plan for cutting the costs of government, “A Better Politics for Less”:

Balancing the government books isn’t just the political equivalent of an accountancy exam; Liberal Democrats seek austerity for the purpose of delivering a better Britain. The best way to reduce government expenditure is through significant reform, identifying big ticket items that can be done differently or not done at all. Simply squeezing budgets year-on-year, without identifying how to deliver better for less will just hurt the public services people rely on.

Unlike the previous Conservative proposals, these plans will both save a significant …

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Daily View 2×2: 17 September 2009

Good morning. Today we remember the deaths of Hildegard von Bingen, and, centuries later, Laura Ashley; and today’s birthday girl is Tessa Jowell.

Two big stories

A surprising number of newspapers seem to be leading with a story about how soon, we will all have the right to register with any GP we choose. I struggle to see why that’s made so many front pages.

Instead, my picks are the Independent’s story about racism in the US, with President Carter weighing in on opposition to President Obama’s current policy platform:

After lurking near the surface of political discourse in America

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Daily View 2×2: 2 September 2009

Well, that’s it. August is over, nights are drawing in, it’s downhill to Christmas, and LDV’s daily 2×2 slot that’s more-or-less been on hold over the summer returns to its more-or-less 8am schedule to bring you two top news stories and two must-read blog posts from the world of Lib Demmery.

With just 120 days till the end of the year, 2nd September is the day the Great Fire of London broke out in 1666, the day Thomas Telford died in 1834, and Salma Hayek’s birthday. Happy birthday, Miss Hayek!

Two top stories

PM’s role in release of Megrahi

Gordon Brown

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CommentIsLinked@LDV: Vince Cable doesn’t know when the economy will recover

Our Vince penned a piece for the Daily Mail yesterday with the  delicious title “The economy is now sitting up and showing signs of recovery

In it, Vince made the startling admission that he is not, in fact, an all-seeing mage with black powers over the future of the economy:

I am often asked to play the part of Nostradamus. Since I had been a reasonably successful prophet of doom, I am now assumed to know when the economy will turn round. I don’t. No one knows.

It does seem likely, however, that a major disaster has been averted. We are no

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A tale of two recessions

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…”

Dickens may well have been writing about 18th century France, but it’s likely that historians looking back at 2009 would conclude something similar about our current economic predicament.

In the midst of a recession triggered by a financial crisis, the economy at large has been in decline in the UK for five quarters. The knock-on effects of the credit crunch, brought on largely by unsustainable and deregulated banking speculation, have been dire; bail-outs in the billions which, according to Vince Cable’s sage analysis, “privatise profits and nationalise losses“; job …

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Daily View 2×2: 24 June 2009

2 big stories

As any fule kno, the chair of the Iraq enquiry Sir John Chilcot has ruled that as a default all evidence should be given to the enquiry in public. He has also indicated that he will be calling Tony Blair and Gordon Brown to give evidence. From the Guardian:

The move to open up his hearings, which came on the eve of a Commons debate tomorrow on the inquiry, shows that a wholesale change of the terms has been carried out since the inquiry was established by the prime minister last week. The decision to summon Brown and Blair for public hearings was disclosed by Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, who met Chilcot today on privy council terms. Chilcott held a separate meeting with David Cameron on the same terms.

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CommentIsLinked@LDV: Vince Cable – This recession is very far from over

Over at The Independent, Lib Dem deputy leader Vince Cable pours cold water on the idea the economy is bouncing back, arguing that we are seeing an economists’ and financiers’ recovery rather than a real one. Here’s an excerpt:

The mother of all economic crises seems mysteriously to have vanished in the face of a determined counter-offensive by the forces of optimism. There are daily accounts of returning confidence in financial and property markets and bodies like the National Institute of Economic and Social Research are forecasting an early return to growth. Perhaps those government ministers who spotted the “green

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Opinion: Pay close attention to an independent voice on UK economic policy

Departing Monetary Policy Committee David Blanchflower has given an interview in which he warns of false dawns and expresses serious reservations about the economic predictions emanating from the Treasury.

Blanchflower was born in the UK but now holds a Chair in Economics at Dartmouth College in the US. His scepticism about the Monetary Policy Committee’s narrow focus on the Consumer Price Index has been a consistent theme in what the most independent and thoughtful member of the MPC has said about its work. That independence and scepticism chimes in with his research interests and broader vision of his academic …

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Opinion: Nonsense on stilts from Darling

Alistair Darling gave an interview to the Times on Wednesday which has attracted remarkably little comment. While the great distraction – the parliamentary allowance scandal – continues, attention isn’t focused on the Great Recession, or the Government’s part in it.

In the interview the Chancellor predicted that the recession, in the UK, would be over by Christmas. Mr Darling wants electors, not just the Labour faithful, to know that the UK economy is set to be growing strongly by the time of the General Election in 2010. Does this kind of whistling in the dark have a political purpose? I think …

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Vince and Field join forces to urge Labour and Tories to tackle UK borrowing

Cross-party alliances are the flavour of the day. Today, David Cameron backed Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg’s successful campaign to overturn Labour’s shameful treatment of the Gurkhas. Meanwhile Lib Dem deputy leader Vince Cable has won the support of senior Labour backbencher Frank Field by tabling an early day motion highlighting the UK’s huge borrowing requirements, and calling on the Government to set up a special committee to investigate ways of balancing the national accounts.

Frank Field explains his reasoning in a stark article on his own blog, laying into both his own Government, as well as the Tories, for signally failing to address the UK’s crippling national debt burden:

Vince Cable and I have tabled today an Early Day Motion calling for a serious debate now, and not after the next election, on how to balance the nation’s accounts.

Both major parties are stringing the voters along, teasingly suggesting that big cuts in expenditure and tax hikes will be necessary, but neither has any intention of disclosing their plans to rational debate before the election. What both major parties overlook is that the money markets may not be compliant in a game of party politicking over the country’s future.

Even on the Government’s own figures, Britain will proportionally be trying to borrow more money to balance its accounts over the medium to long term than any other G8 country. …

The size of the State or – what Governments can do – is going to change. If we don’t have an open and full debate the new politics will quickly take on a reactionary bent. The new politics offers a once in a generation opportunity for radical politics. The first concern in increasing taxation is to ensure that those on modest to low incomes do not bear once again the main brunt of tax rises. …

The stranglehold on this debate by the two main political parties must be broken. Failure to convince the money-lenders than the country is serious about balancing its books could lead to a failure to raise the shedloads of debt any government must raise in the short run, resulting in a further collapse in the currency (already down by 30%) and untold economic chaos and misery.

If the two major parties fail to act, the House of Commons must seize the initiative to begin plotting a new safe course for the country.

Here’s the full text of Vince’s motion:

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Jeremy Browne: A year on from “Apocalypse Now”

“Colourful and lurid fiction” and “hysterical over-reaction”: that’s how Treasury Minister Angela Eagle described Liberal Democrat warnings about the economy exactly a year ago today. A Lib Dem Opposition Day Motion had warned of an extreme bubble in the housing market and mass repossessions, but was dismissed by the Government as “scaremongering.” Eagle even compared it to a storyboard for “Apocalypse Now.”

Then, as now, Jeremy Browne, Liberal Democrat Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, spoke of the Liberal Democrats’ economic foresight. You can watch yesterday’s question time with Jeremy Browne on moneysupermarket.com in which he …

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Join Jeremy Browne for a live webchat on Liberal Democrat finance plans

Jeremy Browne, Liberal Democrat Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, will be taking part in a live webchat on Wednesday 1st April at 1pm.

From moneysupermarket.com:

Jeremy is responsible for helping set the Liberal Democrats’ financial policies. Clare Francis, editor of moneysupermarket.com, will be putting your questions to him in a live webchat at 1pm on Wednesday April 1.

As always, your questions really do set the agenda. So if you want to know what the Liberal Democrats would do to tackle to recession and ongoing financial crisis and how their policies would affect your finances submit your questions now and come

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Tories’ double whammy tax bombshell

I leave the country for just three days, and come back to find that, in my absence, the Tories have fallen to bits over tax. I must try this going away lark again, some time. (What do you mean, post hoc ergo propter hoc?)

Of course, it’s possible to claim it’s all a storm in a teacup: that (i) George Osborne’s announcement that the Tories will go into the next election promising to raise the top rate of tax, and (ii) Ken Clarke’s declaration that their inheritance tax cut for the rich was an “aspiration”, are merely a …

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Conference: Vince Cable

The Beeb has already trailed this speech, and Vince is welcomed to the stand with an even longer opening ovation than Howard got.

14.44 He starts on, let us say, a dark note. The economic situation is dire, we are going to have nothing but bad news for some time. There has never been a more important time for politicians to be honest. But what do we have? A pantomime between Labour and the Tories.

14.47 He identfies the Tories’ motivation: for them, the worse the recession is the better. That way they can strengthen their own anyone-but-Labour vote and they …

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Shock Robert Peston news: he’s human and fallible

Although Robert Peston has recently been criticising HBOS for the behaviour that led to it running up massive losses, a look through his book published as recently as last year shows him repeatedly praising HBOS for some of the very actions that are now being criticised.

For example, in late February, Robert Peston wrote on his BBC blog that,

For all the criticism of the alleged excessive risks taken by HBOS’s mortgage department – as per the charges levelled at the bank by its former head of regulatory risk, Paul Moore – the most reckless lending and investments were made by

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What’s going to happen to UK property prices?

Here’s a bit of historical context: in the last major house price slump, prices peaked in the third quarter of 1989*, hit bottom in the first quarter of 1993 when they were 20% lower and did not rise back above the pre-slump peak again until the first quarter of 1998.

What would similar timescales mean for us this time round? Prices peaked in the third quarter of 2007, so that would mean them not hitting bottom until the first quarter of 2011 and not getting back to their pre-slump levels until the first quarter of 2016. In other words, not only …

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Recession, recession, everywhere?

David Smith’s column in today’s Sunday Times caught my eye in part because of my recent experiences with suppliers the party uses. He wrote:

Something odd is happening. Recessions are grim but you expect compensations such as quiet roads, empty trains and helpful shop assistants.

This may be a London thing, but to me roads are busier and on train and Tube journeys I get closer to fellow passengers than is comfortable. As for shops, maybe the retail trade is too miserable, though it is common to find that, when you are ready to buy, the item is not in stock.

In …

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Opinion: I’m alright – but is Britain?

This week’s Times/Populus opinion poll suggested that the meltdown boost for Gordon Brown’s personal rating has faded. But there is rather more to these latest data than simply a restoration of the Conservatives’ double-digit lead.

An interesting syndrome has come to light, and I am dubbing it ‘this depression is going to be very bad for Britain – but I’ll survive’. There is now what the researchers call a gap between personal optimism and public pessimism.

What can this mean?

It could mean any number of things: far too many people still just carrying on carrying on. Figures from elsewhere showing those …

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Causes of the credit crunch: if you’re going to try to blame David Bowie, you really should also blame fifteenth century knights

David Bowie: the case for the prosecution

The idea that the credit crunch can in part be blamed on David Bowie is the, um…, slightly unusual thought thrown in the air by Evan Davis ahead of the broadcast of his TV documentary on the City. As Evan Davis put it in The Mirror:

Even when it comes to finances Bowie leads the way – and back in 1997 he did something called “securitisation”.

He thought, “I have a lot of money coming in over the next 10 years from my back catalogue, but I’d rather have the cash now and not have

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More flack for George Osborne in the Sunday papers

David Smith is economics editor at the Sunday Times and today he writes of George Osborne:

Every day, sometimes on several occasions, an e-mail arrives in my inbox on behalf of George Osborne, the Conservative shadow chancellor.

Issued in response to a minor economic indicator or flaky forecast, these missives, apart from rather demeaning the office of shadow chancellor, are usually harmless enough and can be safely ignored.

Last week, however, came one that summed up the Tory problem: opposition by soundbite. For weeks, a debate has raged about whether central banks should engage in “quantitative easing”, the technique employed by the Japanese

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CommentIsLinked@LDV: Vince Cable – Confiscating savings from the poor is both stupid and cruel

The Independent today has an op-ed piece from Vince Cable. You can read it in full here, but here’s an excerpt:

As it became clear that we faced a serious recession we Liberal Democrats broke the taboo of the political and economic Establishment by calling on the Monetary Policy Committee to cut interest rates by 2 per cent initially. Our call was treated like a rude noise in church. But it has happened – and more – and we now have a two per cent base rate.

The danger now is of deepening recession mutating into deflation and a downward spiral

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Nick on paternity leave, Lib Dem poll ratings, and Lembit and Brian

There’s an in-depth interview with Nick Clegg in today’s Telegraph – here’s a few highlights:

On his imminent fatherhood and paternity leave

Evangelical about the importance of parental leave, Mr Clegg and his party recently adopted a radical child care policy which would allow new fathers as much as nine months or more off work.

He himself plans to spend every minute of the current official entitlement away from the political vortex when the time comes … Wouldn’t an election spell the end of his plans to take proper paternity leave: the full two weeks off “wiping and cooing” as he puts it?

“Proper?” he splutters. “It’s only two weeks. It should be more. … We’re all agreed that one of the great crises in this country for children, particularly for boys, is a lack or absence of positive male role models. And we’ve got legislation that says you can take two weeks off when the baby’s barely aware of your existence. That’s not good enough.” Lib Dem policy is for parents to be given up to 19 months leave, split between the mother and the father; but could the leader of a political party really take months and months off?

“No, it would be really difficult for me,” Mr Clegg says, “But the problem is that no one feels entitled.

“I’m not going to be sanctimonious about this; people should make their own decisions. “I just feel that if dads don’t get involved with their kids early on in a meaningful way often they don’t remain engaged afterwards. I personally think two weeks is a pathetic amount of parenting.”

On the Lib Dems’ popularity

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