Bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory.
Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy
Three years ago the Russian invasion of Ukraine became too loud for Europe and the world to ignore. The truth that those same countries could not admit before then, is that the Russian invasion of Ukraine had actually started in 2014 with the invasion of Crimea and the start of the Donbass War. Far from fighting for their independence for three years, Ukrainians have actually been fighting for over 10 years.
What prevented Ukraine’s now allies, and the US, from recognising what was in front of them? In the end it was a toxic mix of fear and complacency that let them down. To appease both sentiments and pay lip service to the principles of defending democracy under fire, Ukraine’s allies adopted an incremental aid strategy that in the end was a gamble. It gambled that Russia would not be able to adapt its war economy and strategy quick enough to counter the aid and that domestic politics in the West would remain supportive of Ukraine. Now it is evident that Russian Force are using the limitations set on donated arms to their advantage, while US support for Ukraine is effectively over.
Critics of the military support for Ukraine often show some sympathy for Russian propaganda points that decry NATO “expansionism” in Eastern Europe while cautioning against confronting Putin. However, I believe the real truth is that appeasement of Putin, which has effectively gone on for years, is what has brought us to this point in the first place. Time and again Putin has found Western “Red Lines” illusory while outrageous behaviour such as the Salisbury Poisonings have hardly been punished. Yet on the few times where unmistakable Western resolve has been shown Putin has backed down before when he hasn’t had a choice. He can be made to so again.
Liberal values are incompatible with Russian (or American) designs on Ukraine. If we do not stand up for a country to be able to choose its own destiny, including which international organisations it wishes to join, we will compromise our values as well as European security. By choosing peace at any price we risk the egg timer being reset until the next war instigated by Russia.
We cannot be fearful and complacent anymore. We have to be bold and resolute. Appeasement and playing Putin’s fear game means that multiple opportunities have been lost to check his ambitions with minimal risk. There is a logical fallacy that appeasement poses less of a risk than pushing back, whereas as we can see in reality it merely allows Putin to determine the direction of escalation. There are no easy options left.
To this end I am looking gather support for a motion to bring to the Autumn Conference with the following points in mind.
- Committing the UK to support and join the Estonian Government’s plan to commit European NATO members to contribute a quarter percentage of their GDP to a 4 year military aid plan for Ukraine.
- Committing to the UK calling on European allies to use all frozen Russian assets to finance further Ukrainian military aid.
- To consider any peace plan drafted by the US and Russia without serious consultation from Ukraine to be null and void.
- To consider turning the Ukrainian training programme Operation Interflex into a programme that focuses on resistance to occupation if a peace is imposed on Ukraine without the free consent of Ukrainians.
* Zachary Barker is a Lib Dem activist in Bristol.
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3 Comments
Unfortunaely, it is not the wishes of the majority that determines issues of war and peace, it is a clique of powerful men that control governments.
In the wake of the 1938 Munich agreement, Sir John Simon reported to Parliament ” We must remember that there are many millions of men and women in the world, and one lesson from this crisis, perhaps the greatest lesson of all, is that the masses of people in every country are equally horrified at the prospect of war. The Prime Minister’s popularity in Germany is not due to any feeling among Germans that the Fuhrer was gaining territory or achieving his purpose: it was due to the gratitude which ordinary people in that country felt for the Prime Minister who was striving for peace in Europe.”
I expect the great mass of Russian people today would like nothing more than the war with Ukraine to be over and a return to the peaceful relations they enjoyed with Europe before Putin embarked on his scheme of imperial conquest.
Americans dispirited by fruitless conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq likewise are reluctant to become embroiled in military adventures beyond their shores. Someting that Trump made much of in his presidential campaign.
I think the UK needs to support the US effort to mediate a ceasefire while stepping up its support to Ukraine from £3 billion per year to the Estonian governments plan for 0.25% of GDP even if that extra £5.4 is production of munitions and armanents for Ukraine.
The US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff appears to be using the draft Istanbul Protocol crafted in 2022 as a “guidepost” for future negotiations between Ukraine and Russia Istanbul Protocol Draft Agreement of April 15, 2022
• The Istanbul Protocol draft agreement would have left Ukraine helpless in the face of future Russian threats or aggression. It imposed no limitations on the size of the Russian military and no obligations on Russia other than those noted below.
• The draft agreement would have prohibited the continued Western military assistance and support that US officials have repeatedly urged European states to offer, as well as bilateral security agreements, which US officials have also encouraged European countries to make.
• It is thus entirely incompatible with the current stated US policy and cannot be the basis or guidepost for negotiations that amount to anything other than capitulation to Russia’s pre-war demands.
Unfortunately, as Zelenskyy seems to have accepted we depend on America to stop the fighting in Ukraine. It is the only country with the might and the ability to use it to halt Russia’s imperial tendencies. That does not mean that Europe should stop supporting Ukraine, only that it should be flexible enough to adapt to changing realities.