Without a doubt, the Ukrainian Military’s recent counteroffensive has proved more challenging than the last one. Ukraine’s ability to put together such counteroffensives and defend the wider country remains at the mercy of the generosity of military aid donors. “Give us the tools and we will finish the job” Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky pleaded.
However, the arrival of military aid has often been delayed for political reasons as much as logistical ones. This counteroffensive for instance has seen the Ukrainian Military forced to determinedly advance without air cover. This is despite the Ukrainian Government requesting Fighter Jets, such as F-16s, to be sent for their defence since the start of the 2022 invasion. The delay in the arrival of equipment for the current counteroffensive gave ample time for the invading Russian enforces to entrench and defend the land they have stolen. Some reports say it has even given them ample breathing space to counter some Western weapons such as HIMARS. Western leaders have justified the incremental approach to giving such aid to encourage de-escalation. Despite this, Russian President Vladimir Putin reading Western reticence as weakness, as he has always done, has proceeded on his same imperialist course.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is betting that the short-term concerns of Western democracies, such as the US Presidential election next year, will mean that the alliance that supports Ukraine will ultimately fall apart. This is why those democracies, especially European ones need to convene a long term plan to support Ukraine. Bilateral and piecemeal military aid announcements were never sufficient to achieve victory. If NATO membership is barred to Ukraine, then alternative security assurances need to be given to Ukraine. A Memorandum of Understanding enshrining a commitment to support Ukraine could either be agreed between that country and it’s allies collectively or on a bilateral basis. What is imperative is that European countries in particular plan for a future where the considerable US aid to Ukraine is potentially no longer available. Brexit aside, the UK needs to be involved in any European discussions about supporting Ukraine in the long term to coordinate efforts.