Yes and no. The last six months have admirably demonstrated why I don’t “do” polls. We’ve been down four here, down three there, up seven here, down two there – a veritable roller coaster ride, all on the back of… very little. It’s been a remarkably stable six months in the life of the party. Our seven-point rise (which is an extraordinary movement) on January 31st came on the back of… nothing much. No major positive press, no triumphs, no… nothing. That’s one of the many reasons I didn’t trumpet it on the day it happened.
So we shouldn’t be worried, because our poll rating is not as a result of anything we’re doing wrong – numbers wise we’re being buffeted by the storm around us, while we hold a steady ship.
But we should be worried that we’re failing to be in control of our own standing in the national opinion polls – its evidence of a media squeeze, if not a voting squeeze. More action is needed to seize the agenda. ‘We can cut crime’ was good, but it didn’t make a big splash – it’s a trumpet that needs to be kept blowing. When is the next big ‘we can cut crime’ keynote speech?
What are we saying about road tolls today? On the day the massive online petition closes, so far… not a peep that I can see. The last press release I can find on the issue (doesn’t mean it’s the last one there was!) was on 10th Feb: “GOVERNMENT MUST BE HONEST ABOUT ROAD USER PRICING – CARMICHAEL”.
What’s the leader doing today? Someone push him in front of a camera and get him to articulate the message that is implicit in that press release – Labour have been fibbing about their plans for road tolls.
The party’s parliamentarians and press officers understandably don’t take kindly to any suggestion that they’re not working hard enough – so I’d like to make it clear that I’m not suggesting that. But the party has released twenty-four press releases in the last three days, and as someone who engages with the media about as much as I suspect the average voter does, I haven’t noticed any of them – from my personal perspective, the party could have been silent. So the suggestion is not that people aren’t working hard enough, but rather that all the hard work that is being done sadly still isn’t enough. And to counter that I have a responsibility to dig in to my pocket and donate towards the cost of more press officers, just as much as the party has a responsibility to consider its approach to media releases.
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4 Comments
Excellent article.
I have for a long time been doing my poll of polls every month.
One thing I have noticed is that the polls have not moved that much since the May 2006 local elections for all three parties. The LDs are stuck at about 19%, altough I think our true rating is a point or two higher.
As for the press officers and the media – we need an alistair campbell type person to badger the media to get our press releases published. It seems the only time they want to report us is if something goes wrong.
Lloyd
Agree with you 100% Lloyd, we are ignored unless its one of our MP’s shagging male prossies or a illegal Romanian!
I am also depressed that Lib Dems do not appear whenever a news story breaks. I am not convinced it is that we are not saying anything newsworthy… just that the press do not think we are saying anything different from Labour (or Tories on another day).
Road pricing is a point I find excrutiating! Carmichael´s comment on the Lib Dem offical site said nothing worth reporting. Yet our proposals at the last general election were crystal clear. We are in favour of road pricing, but would reduce the costs of road-tax. So taxing a car on the road is cheap, but travelling long distances would incurr a financial penalty.
There is no reason why this cannot be married to the concept that cars with higher fuel consumption are already hit through the petrol pump… and also at a graduated tax dependent on the cc of a vehicle (as at present) = this would encourage some to elect to purchase smaller cars.
This view is slightly developed further by Scot Lib Dems in their manifesto where residents in rural areas are not hit for the miles travelled (until they hit principal towns of course).
Political opinion can be an ephemeral thing. Often, it only comes alive when one is asked a question about it. Hence the inherent unreliability of opinion polls.
I am not a prophet, so won’t spend too much time prognosticating about the future. Except to say that Tory support is probably at its peak. Gordon Brown is bound to boost Labour’s standing (nearly all new leaders do this) and those tainted by cash for honours will soon leave the stage.
I don’t quite know how the Party hits the headlines. But I do have an observation here. I was very struck watching Question Time last week how old stagers like Roy Hattersley and Norman Tebbit outshine the rather colourless breed at the top of politics today.
Perhaps our leaders need to inject a bit more passion into their politics. Chris Huhne makes an admirable attempt, but some of his colleagues do come across as rather dull at times.
Ming is the “rise above it all” statesman, the role he plays best. What he needs is some people around him who hyperventilate occasionally.
As for road pricing, how about the following strategy: (1) Expose road pricing a la Blair for what it is – satellite surveillance through the back door, and (2) come up with sensible proposals for cutting carbon emissions – such as higher tax rates for gaz-guzzling vehicles (I saw a second-hand 4-wheel drive the other day on sale for more than the average annual salary before tax)??