Author Archives: Stephen Tall

Stephen was Editor (and Co-Editor) of Liberal Democrat Voice from 2007 to 2015, and writes at The Collected Stephen Tall. He writes a fortnightly column for ConservativeHome and 'The Underdog' column for Total Politics magazine. He edited the 2013 publication, The Coalition and Beyond: Liberal Reforms for the Decade Ahead, and is a Research Associate for the liberal think-tank CentreForum. He was awarded the inaugural Lib Dem ‘Blogger of the Year’ prize in 2006, was a councillor for eight years in Oxford, including a year as Deputy Lord Mayor, and appears frequently in the media in person, in print and online. Stephen combines his political interests with his professional life as Development Director for the Education Endowment Foundation, though writes here in a personal capacity.
Stephen Tall

EXCLUSIVE: What Lib Dem members think about the Lib Dems and the Coalition

By Stephen Tall | Thu 19th December 2013 - 9:32 am

Lib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum  to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Some 750 party members responded – thank you – and we’re publishing the full results.

Members back Coalition with Conservatives by 80% to 17%

Do you support or oppose the Lib Dems being in the Coalition Government with the Conservatives?

    80% (+1%) – Support

    17% (n/c) – Oppose

    3% (n/c) – Don’t know / No opinion

No matter what the travails of the Coalition — and there have been plenty in …

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Posted in LDV Members poll | Tagged | 18 Comments
Stephen Tall

Lib Dem Deputy Leadership – runners and riders. Who’s your choice?

By Stephen Tall | Wed 18th December 2013 - 5:25 pm

There will be a Lib Dem deputy leadership election in the new year, following (as Caron reported earlier) Simon Hughes’s surprise appointment as Minister for Justice, replacing Lord (Tom) McNally.

The post’s full title is Deputy Leader of the Parliamentary Party in the House of Commons – so the ballot is restricted to MPs. Last time round, in summer 2010 following Vince Cable resignation to take up the post of Business Secretary, it was contested by Simon and by Tim Farron. Simon beat Tim by 38 votes to 18.

The party’s standing orders were changed following the …

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Posted in News | Tagged and | 55 Comments
Stephen Tall

Careful, Boris. Remember what happened to the last top Tory to liken the Lib Dems to a bird?

By Stephen Tall | Wed 18th December 2013 - 9:25 am

“The sooner we are shot of the great yellow albatross, in my view, the better.” So said Boris Johnson yesterday, taking a pop at both Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems.

But, as a classics scholar, Boris should beware a little thing called hubris. At the 1990 Tory Party conference, Mrs Thatcher poked fun at the Lib Dems’ new logo, the bird of freedom, by performing the Monty Python “Dead Parrot” sketch:

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Stephen Tall

Clegg opens up his “fairly thick Black Book” of Lib Dem plans blocked by the Tories – but is it enough?

By Stephen Tall | Mon 16th December 2013 - 6:45 pm

Last week, David Cameron revealed he’s keeping a “little black book” of Tory ideas he’s desperate to implement which have been thwarted by the Lib Dems. This prompted an impressively swift imagining by Lib Dem HQ of what that black book might contain – you can read it here.

It also prompted Lib Dem blogger Richard Morris pointedly to ask at the New Statesman, ‘Where is Clegg’s “little Black Book” of Lib Dem policies blocked by the Tories?’

… thinking back over the last few years, Lord’s Reform and the Mansion Tax aside, it’s hard to think what Lib

…

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Stephen Tall

Nick Clegg reminder to drawbridge-up Tories on immigration: “We are an open economy”

By Stephen Tall | Mon 16th December 2013 - 6:15 pm

CleggIt’s good to have the old Nick Clegg back today. You know the one I mean: the liberal leader willing to stick up for the free movement of people and take on the anti-immigration populists.

Occasionally that Nick goes missing in action, such as when he advocated security bonds for immigrants from ‘high-risk’ countries entering the UK or when he enthusiastically joined the general hysteria around so-called ‘benefit tourism’.

But today he was back, hitting out at proposals allegedly leaked by the Home Office to impose a cap …

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Posted in News | Tagged and | 7 Comments
Stephen Tall

In the next month 10 seats will short-list their wannabe Lib Dem MPs (and one MSP)

By Stephen Tall | Sat 14th December 2013 - 6:06 pm

Lib Dems winning hereHere’s the full list of selection contests in the coming month available for Lib Dems on the approved parliamentary candidates’ list, together with the closing date for applications. They include Ming Campbell’s North East Fife seat.

The following seats have selections in progress and are currently advertising for candidates:

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Posted in Selection news | Tagged | 6 Comments
Stephen Tall

New LDV members’ survey now live: your views on the economy, schools, and the Coalition

By Stephen Tall | Sat 14th December 2013 - 4:19 pm

The new LDV members’ survey is now live. So if you are one of the c.1,500 registered members of the Liberal Democrat Voice forum — and any paid-up party member is welcome to join — then you now have the opportunity to make your views known.

Questions we’re asking this month include:

  • your views on the Coalition’s spending cuts;
  • what you think about schools policy;
  • hot-topics such as payday loans, immigration, ‘Help to Buy’, state surveillance, the state pension and MPs’ pay
  • your views on Nick Clegg’s leadership and of leading figures within the Lib Dems;
  • what you think

…

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Posted in LDV Members poll | 1 Comment
Stephen Tall

UPDATED: Full list of Lib Dems standing in our held seats and top 50 targets

By Stephen Tall | Sat 14th December 2013 - 10:45 am

We’re 18 months from the May 2015 election so I thought it’d be useful to keep a running check on how candidate selection is going in our held and key target seats…

I published a first draft of this list at the start of October, and asked readers to help me update it – many thanks to those of you who commented here, on Twitter, via Facebook and by email and text. Here’s the latest version of the list of (re-)selections in our held seats and the top 50 targets for the party — however, I realise we’ve just gone through AGM season so please do let me know of updates to this list.

It’s a snapshot of how the party’s doing in getting people in place in the battleground seats that will determine the extent of Lib Dem influence in the next parliament:

Held seats: 31/57 MPs re-selected or candidates selected where MPs retiring (40%); 7/57 MPs retiring (12%) – 3 potential successors selected.

Top targets from Labour: 8/23 candidates selected (35%).

Top targets from Tories: 14/27 candidates selected (52%).

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Posted in News and Selection news | Tagged | 29 Comments
Stephen Tall

Who will you nominate as your Liberal Voice of the Year?

By Stephen Tall | Sat 14th December 2013 - 8:15 am

liberal-voiceWe’re launching our search for the Liberal Voice of the Year – to find the individual or group which has had the biggest impact on liberalism in the past 12 months. This is the seventh annual award, and as is our tradition, we’re looking beyond the ranks of the Lib Dems to find the greatest liberal who’s not a member of our party.

We’ll be seeking nominations from Lib Dems signed up to our members’ forum in our forthcoming survey – this is a heads-up so you can get …

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Posted in LDV Members poll | Tagged | 36 Comments
Stephen Tall

‘Good’ gender segregation and ‘bad’ gender segregation?

By Stephen Tall | Thu 12th December 2013 - 9:08 am

universities_uk logoI’ve just heard the Chief Executive of Universities UK be put through the mill on BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme following its decision to publish advice that gender segregation might not necessarily be discriminatory as long as “both men and women are being treated equally, as they are both being segregated in the same way”. The guidance – which you can read here – is specific to invited external speakers at meetings on university premises.

I do not like gender segregation. At all. Maybe it’s the result of having …

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , and | 73 Comments
Stephen Tall

“Osborne’s waving an enormous red flag” – Social Liberal Forum’s warning to Lib Dems over Autumn Statement

By Stephen Tall | Wed 11th December 2013 - 10:15 am

Prateek Buch, director of the Social Liberal Forum, has an article in today’s Independent – The Lib Dems should not sign up to Osborne’s austerity straitjacket – issuing a stark warning to his fellow Lib Dems to take note of the “enormous red flag” he says was waved by George Osborne in last week’s Autumn Statement.

That flag was the Chancellor’s pledge for the economy to move into surplus by 2018/19, within the course of the next parliament. To achieve that – what, in effect, was the original Alistair Darling plan to eliminate the deficit over two parliaments …

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Stephen Tall

Three scenarios for the 2015 election based on current polling: which do you think looks most plausible?

By Stephen Tall | Tue 10th December 2013 - 2:45 pm

In 18 months we’ll know the result of the 2015 general election.

Forecasting is a mug’s game – especially because there are an even greater number of variables this time than usual: a governing coalition of two parties with one established centre-left opposition, Labour, and an insurgent right-wing party, Ukip.

But plenty are having a go at it anyway. Lib Dem MP Sir Nick Harvey reckons Labour has the next election in the bag. Psephologist Lewis Baston thinks we’re headed for a second hung parliament. And pollster Sir Bob Worcester believes the Lib Dems are destined for meltdown.

Here’s my quick ‘n’ dirty analysis based on the polling trends. What I’ve looked at is Labour’s lead over the Conservatives according to the monthly average of opinion polls under three different scenarios.

(Huge caveat straight off: the extent of the polling science on display here is me playing around on an Excel spreadsheet.)

Scenario 1

The Conservatives hit rock bottom in May 2012. The omnishambles budget and its desperate U-turns were followed by a poor set of local election results. There have been dips since then, notably when it looked like the economy might plunge into what was being billed as a triple-dip recession at the start of 2013, but never quite matching that period.

Taking May 2012 as the peak of Labour’s lead, what would happen if the linear trend since then were to continue through to May 2015? This is what:

polling trends 2015 - ST 2

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Posted in Polls | Tagged , , , and | 51 Comments
Stephen Tall

The Clegg Family Christmas Card, with a little help from their sons

By Stephen Tall | Tue 10th December 2013 - 10:35 am

Here is the Christmas card Nick Clegg and Miriam González Durántez will be sending out this year:

Clegg family Xmas card 2013

The London Evening Standard explains:

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Posted in News | Tagged , , and | 4 Comments
Stephen Tall

Autumn statement: George is jubilant, Ed blusters and Danny breathes a sigh of relief

By Stephen Tall | Thu 5th December 2013 - 1:50 pm

“A lot done, a lot left to do.” It’s the slogan that adorns many re-election campaigns and it’s the one George Osborne adopted in his autumn statement today. He was cautiously jubilant. Growth has returned with the OBR seemingly struggling to get its forecasts to keep up. Borrowing will fall – slower than the Chancellor forecast, true, but a cash surplus is expected within five years.

This gave the Coalition the wriggle room it needed for an assortment of giveaways… Free school meals for 5-7 year-olds, the personal income tax allowance to rise to £10k then be pegged to inflation, …

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Posted in News and Op-eds | Tagged and | 9 Comments
Stephen Tall

The Autumn Statement and the unreal economic debate in which everyone pretends the Coalition stuck to ‘Plan A’

By Stephen Tall | Thu 5th December 2013 - 10:15 am

It’s autumn statement day. George Osborne will stand at the despatch box of the House of Commons this afternoon and present his pre-budget report. The Guardian’s Martin Kettle sums up what it’s all about:

For the Conservatives, today is about redefining themselves – in the face of a run of seriously disappointing polls – as the party that feels the voters’ pain over energy prices, house price inflation, wind farms or payday loans – while still, boosted by yesterday’s strong economic surveys and the possible return of the UK’s AAA rating, managing a recovering economy more soundly than Labour. For

…

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Stephen Tall

It’s “Immigration Hysteria Day”. Again. Here’s how Lib Dems need to respond

By Stephen Tall | Wed 27th November 2013 - 9:35 am

Another day, another bout of “the UK’s about to be invaded by 29 million Bulgarians and Romanians” hysteria. But today it’s not Nigel Farage splattering mis-shapen statistics into the debate: it’s the Prime Minister, David Cameron – increasingly resembling Mr Farage’s mini-me – who’s showing leadership by following the tabloid press. Here’s how the BBC lists the new proposals:

  • New migrants will not get out-of-work benefits for the first three months
  • Payments will be stopped after six months unless the claimant has a “genuine” chance of a job
  • The “habitual residency test” to determine eligibility for benefits will be tightened up
  • An earnings

…

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Stephen Tall

Free school meals for infants – the controversy over Nick Clegg’s pledge rumbles on

By Stephen Tall | Sun 24th November 2013 - 3:30 pm

Clegg WatfordI wrote yesterday about Sir Nick Harvey’s forecast that the next election is Labour’s to lose. But there was another issue he focused on in his Huffngton Post interview – Nick Clegg’s conference pledge that all 5-7 year-olds should have free school meals, regardless of their family’s income status.

“It was absolutely astonishing. It came from nowhere,” he exclaims. “It seemed to be part of some coalition deal where it was meant to make the Lib Dems feel better about allowing the Tories to progress their wretched married

…

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Stephen Tall

Is Nick Harvey right that “Labour is on course to win the next election”?

By Stephen Tall | Sat 23rd November 2013 - 10:50 am

Nick Harvey MPSir Nick Harvey, Lib Dem MP for North Devon (and former defence minister), has little doubt who’s going to win the next election, as he tells the Huffington Post:

… Harvey has a “clear sense” of what he thinks is going to happen. And even more than that, he is “astonished” that few others within the Westminster Village share his view.

“Stand fast a game changing event, which is always possible in the febrile political era in which we live, Labour is on course to win the next election,” he

…

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Stephen Tall

Nick Boles calls for National Liberal revival AKA Nick Boles invents a safe space for nice people well away from the Tories

By Stephen Tall | Tue 19th November 2013 - 8:30 pm

nick bolesNick Boles is the Conservative planning minister, one of the few Tories to take the housing crisis seriously and to risk unpopularity within his own party by making clear we need to build more homes.

He has, for instance, said ‘The sum of human happiness that is created by the houses that are being built is vastly greater than the economic, social and environmental value of a field that was growing wheat or rape’ knowing this would be crudely characterised as wanting to ‘concrete the countryside’. He has developed …

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , and | 86 Comments
Stephen Tall

Nick Clegg’s “worker’s bonus” – what I said about it on BBC’s Daily Politics

By Stephen Tall | Tue 19th November 2013 - 1:45 pm

stephen-Tall-Daily-PoliticsI guested on BBC2’s Daily Politics on Monday to discuss Nick Clegg’s announcement that he wants the Coalition to offer a “worker’s bonus” in the next budget, taking the personal allowance up to £10,500 – beyond the £10,000 that was promised by the Lib Dems at the 2010 election.

The other two guests were ex-No. 10 Labour policy wonk Matthew Taylor, now chief executive of the RSA, and Conservative backbench MP Dominic Raab.

You can watch the 10-minute debate here (til 25th November).

Here’s my view in 6 sentences:

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Stephen Tall

In the next month 20 seats will short-list their wannabe Lib Dem MPs (and one MSP)

By Stephen Tall | Sun 17th November 2013 - 7:35 am

Lib Dems winning hereHere’s the full list of selection contests in the coming month available for Lib Dems on the approved parliamentary candidates’ list, together with the closing date for applications.

The following seats have selections in progress and are currently advertising for candidates:

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Stephen Tall

Mark Thompson quits Lib Dems. Is this the death of party politics? Not so fast!

By Stephen Tall | Sat 16th November 2013 - 11:20 am

Mark Thompson, winner of Lib Dem Blog of the Year 2012, has announced he’s leaving the party. You might be thinking, “Ah, another one who’s so annoyed with what the party’s doing in coalition that he can’t face renewing his membership.”

But you’d be wrong. As the title of Mark’s piece makes clear – Why I am leaving the Lib Dems – AKA This is not a Flounce – it is not the party he is disillusioned with but party politics:

The impetus for me to leave is really because politics is broken. The Westminster Village is obsessed with who

…

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Posted in News | Tagged | 24 Comments
Stephen Tall

Nightmare scenarios: what are the 2015 election results the Lib Dems, Tories and Labour most dread?

By Stephen Tall | Fri 15th November 2013 - 10:05 am

clegg cameron milibandHere’s a cheerful topic for a Friday: what are the worst results you could imagine for each of the three main parties at the next general election?

Well, for the Lib Dems it’s obvious – we get mullered, reduced to 24 seats or fewer as predicted by Mori founder Bob Worcester. I don’t think things will be that bad, or anything like. For what it’s worth my current guesstimate would be in the range 35-45.

I don’t think that’s our nightmare scenario though. Don’t get me wrong, losing more …

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged and | 61 Comments
Stephen Tall

Should we ban opinion polls from being published in the lead-up to election day?

By Stephen Tall | Wed 13th November 2013 - 7:45 am

One-third of MPs (including a third of Lib Dem MPs) say yes – but more are opposed. At least that’s the finding of a ComRes survey of 159 MPs in the wake of the Indian Election Commission banning exit polls in the five states holding elections this month, plus a ban on any opinion polls in the final 48 hours of campaigning.

    Would you support or oppose a ban on the publication of opinion polls for a defined period prior to General Elections?

    Support
    All 30%
    Con 25%
    Lab 35%
    LibD 32%

    Oppose
    All 45%
    Con 49%
    Lab 39%
    LibD 38%

    Don’t know
    All 25%
    Con 26%
    Lab 26%
    LibD 30%

Here’s what Andrew Hawkins, chairman …

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Posted in Polls | Tagged , and | 11 Comments
Stephen Tall

In the next month 21 seats will short-list their wannabe Lib Dem MPs

By Stephen Tall | Sat 2nd November 2013 - 5:20 pm

Lib Dems winning hereHere’s the full list of selection contests in the coming month available for Lib Dems on the approved parliamentary candidates’ list, together with the closing date for applications.

The following seats have selections in progress and are currently advertising for candidates:

Altrincham and Sale West (1st November)
Bootle (1st November)
Sefton Central (1st November)
Spelthorne (1st November)
Stratford-On-Avon (1st November)
Stretford and Urmston (1st November)
Brent Central (15th November)
Chester (15th November)
Crewe and Nantwich (15th November)
South West Wiltshire (15th November)
Wythenshawe and Sale East (15th November)
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton (16th November)
Hemsworth (17th November)
Morley and Outwood (17th November)
Normanton (17th …

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Stephen Tall

Stephan Shakespeare: “It is becoming harder for any party to win an outright majority”

By Stephen Tall | Sat 2nd November 2013 - 9:45 am

There’s a terrific post in today’s Times by YouGov chief executive Stephan Shakespeare assessing 10 things you need to know about the electoral scene. What makes it fascinating is his summary of quite why 2015 is, in so many ways, hard to read.

For instance, Labour has a small lead in the polls for an opposition party 18 months out from the election – but a small lead may be enough given the current boundaries.

But, set against that, is the fact that voters don’t regard Ed Miliband as prime ministerial and think a Labour victory would make for a …

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Posted in News | Tagged and | 41 Comments
Stephen Tall

UPDATED: Full list of Lib Dems standing in our held seats and top 50 targets

By Stephen Tall | Sat 2nd November 2013 - 9:00 am

We’re 18 months from the May 2015 election so I thought it’d be useful to keep a running check on how candidate selection is going in our held and key target seats…

I published a first draft of this list a week ago, and asked readers to help me update it – many thanks to those of you who commented here, on Twitter, via Facebook and by email and text. I thought it would be helpful to re-publish the list now we have much fuller information about (re-)selections in our held seats and the top 50 targets for the party.

Here’s a snapshot of how the party’s doing in getting people in place in the battleground seats that will determine the extent of Lib Dem influence in the next parliament:

Held seats: 23/57 MPs re-selected (40%); 7/57 MPs retiring (12%) – 3 potential successors selected.

Top targets from Labour: 7/23 candidates selected (30%); 5/23 currently in process (22%). 52% will be selected within next couple of months.

Top targets from Tories: 12/27 candidates selected (44%); 2/27 currently in process (7%). 51% will be selected within next couple of months.

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Posted in Selection news | Tagged | 13 Comments
Stephen Tall

Lewis Baston’s election 2015 forecast: Labour 36%, Conservatives 34%, Lib Dems 16%

By Stephen Tall | Thu 31st October 2013 - 12:05 pm

Lewis Baston, a research associate at Democratic Audit who is perhaps the nearest the UK comes to a Nate Silver, has published a pamphlet called Swing Seats: The key battlegrounds of the 2015 election (not available online yet). It’s a forensic analysis of the constituencies that will decide the next election, and digs much deeper than the national polls on which so much political commentary relies.

I was on a panel – together with ConservativeHome’s Paul Goodman and the Fabian Society’s Marcus Roberts – to discuss its findings yesterday. Below are 10 points I jotted down from …

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , , and | 21 Comments
Stephen Tall

Can Nick Clegg hold the line on not offering any red lines?

By Stephen Tall | Wed 30th October 2013 - 8:10 pm

For years Lib Dem leaders have been plagued by the question, ‘Who will you support in the event of a hung parliament?’ In 2010, Nick Clegg straight-batted it pretty effectively, saying the Lib Dems would talk first to the party with the most seats and most votes. In 2015 he’ll stick to that trusty formula, with the added credibility of being able to say it’s exactly what he did last time – the voters remain the king-makers etc.

So unsurprisingly journalists have moved on. Their new favourite question, one we’ll hear more and more the close we get to May 2015, …

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Posted in News | Tagged , , , and | 27 Comments
Stephen Tall

Liberal Conspiracy is dead – and so too’s the amateur blogger (more or less)

By Stephen Tall | Sun 27th October 2013 - 8:15 am

Sunny Hundal announced on Friday that left-of-centre blog Liberal Conspiracy is coming to an end:

I no longer have the time to maintain Liberal Conspiracy as a daily-updated news and opinion blog, so as of today I’m going to stop. This site will become an occasionally updated personal blog, with the odd guest-post.

It’s fair to say LibCon received an underwhelmed response from Lib Dems when it was launched six years ago, mostly on account of it including the word Liberal in its title but not so much in its outlook. Sunny himself was sport enough to respond to …

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