Category Archives: General Election

Mark Pack

Lib Dems aggressively expand targeting strategy against Conservatives and Labour

By Mark Pack | Sat 1st May 2010 - 9:32 am

In amongst all the usual clichés about “the only poll that matters is the one on polling day” and “our canvassing returns are excellent” one sure insight into what a party’s is really planning and how it really thinks are going is where it sends its party leader around the country.

The campaign visits this weekend by Nick Clegg illustrate in public what I’ve heard from party campaigning sources – an aggressive move against Conservative seats combined with a long list of possible gains from Labour.

The visits this weekend are to:

Burnley – one of the main Lib Dem targets from Labour, which even when expectations …

Continue reading »
Tagged , and | 15 Comments
Stephen Tall

Just imagine if you’d got over one million new poster sites

By Stephen Tall | Sat 1st May 2010 - 7:45 am

So today the Guardian officially, and surprisingly, came out in support of the Lib Dems for the coming general election. Most of us who are resolved to ‘Keep Calm & Clegg On’ are happy to recognise that newspaper endorsements – certainly by left-of-centre newspapers – do not swing elections.

But, equally, it would be wrong to dismiss the Grauniad’s conversion to the Lib Dem cause as irrelevant. For a start, it is the first time since 1974 that the paper has unreservedly supported the party. That alone is a real fillip to activists.

It’s good for morale, therefore. But …

Continue reading »
Also posted in Op-eds | 8 Comments
Stephen Tall

Another endorsement for the Lib Dems – this time from Liberal Conspiracy

By Stephen Tall | Sat 1st May 2010 - 12:55 am

Sunny Hundal, founding editor of the most influential left-of-centre blog Liberal Conspiracy, has just blogged his endorsement of the Lib Dems for the coming election:

After last night’s debate one thing really struck me. We on the left and many Labourites who are also on the left, fight against discrimination and marginalised people. This is why we attack the Tories for their homophobia and their flashes of racism.

But the way that both Labour and the Tories (the latter expected anyway) not only dismissed the idea of an amnesty, but actually dog-whistled throughout about how the Libdem plan would wreak havoc

…

Continue reading »
Tagged and | 16 Comments
Stephen Tall

Pollwatch Day 25 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 28/32% in today’s polls. And are we headed for 120 MPs?

By Stephen Tall | Sat 1st May 2010 - 12:20 am

Two polls published tonight:

    Harris in the Daily Mail … CON 33%(+1), LAB 24%(-1), LDEM 32%(+2)
    YouGov in the Sun … CON 34%(nc), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 28%(nc)

No significant changes there, all within the margin of error; though certainly encouraging to see the Lib Dems still polling at c.30% of the vote, at least level with Labour, and potentially even gaining support. Let’s see what the weekend polls, which will also include public reaction to the final debate, have in store.

Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ is resolutely stuck at Con 34%, Lib Dem 29%, Lab 27%. Just five days’ …

Continue reading »
Also posted in Polls | 5 Comments
Mark Pack

Tactical voting set for a boost?

By Mark Pack | Fri 30th April 2010 - 9:15 pm

Earlier this month I wrote,

For a long time after David Cameron’s election to leader of the Conservative Party there was widespread talk of “tactical unwind”, that is how his changes to the Conservative Party may result in much less anti-Tory tactical voting at the next general election. It’s one of the range of reasons that many Tories quote for believing that they will do better in terms of seat numbers than the overall vote numbers suggest.

However, what’s struck me for some time is how the overall political campaigning is playing out in a way that is likely to rewind the

…

Continue reading »
Tagged and | 49 Comments
Stephen Tall

Kudos to Clegg: the TV debates wash-up

By Stephen Tall | Fri 30th April 2010 - 8:15 pm

Three programmes, four-and-a-half hours of debate, endless analysis – but one thing’s for sure: Nick Clegg is alone among the three leaders in being able to reflect on them with real pleasure.

David Cameron and the Tories are buoyed by his performance yesterday; understandably so, as most instant polls called it a ‘win’ for him. But three weeks ago the Tories were polling in the 36-39% range, with most pundits predicting a narrow-but-decisive Tory majority. Currently, just a few days before polling day, the Tories are stuck in the 33-36% range.

Perhaps more significant, though is the way Cameron has had to re-write his script during this campaign. Tory advisors hoped it would be enough for their leader to portray himself as the only alternative to Gordon Brown. But then along came ‘Cleggmania’ and suddenly Cameron looked old hat: the mantle of change was snatched away from him by a more dynamic rival. With ratings dipping, the Tories’ answer was familiar enough: turn to the right.

And that’s exactly what Cameron has done. In the third debate last night, he showed the authentic face of Toryism: anti-European, anti-immigrant, anti-welfare. No wonder he looked more comfortable, and no wonder the Tory tribe was smiling today. At long last, their leader had ditched any pretence of building a big-tent mainstream party, and was reverting to the party’s comfort zone, shoring up its core vote.

But of this I am certain: that right-wing c.2005 Michael Howard display from Cameron last night was absolutely not where he wanted to be at this stage of the campaign.

Continue reading »
Also posted in Op-eds | Tagged , and | 6 Comments
Alex Foster

+++ Holy crap, the Guardian endorses Lib Dems

By Alex Foster | Fri 30th April 2010 - 7:01 pm

Not content with publishing a letter from leading progressives, the Guardian tonight brings to an end its journey to a decision about which party to support.

The article is here.

General election 2010: The liberal moment has come
If the Guardian had a vote it would be cast enthusiastically for the Liberal Democrats. But under our discredited electoral system some people may – hopefully for the last time – be forced to vote tactically

We can certainly commend them on their decision, and my headline shows my surprise at them taking this bold step. I think many people were expecting …

Continue reading »
Tagged , , and | 16 Comments
Helen Duffett

Don’t let anyone tell you it can’t be different: the second Lib Dem election broadcast

By Helen Duffett | Fri 30th April 2010 - 6:40 pm

Continue reading »
Also posted in Lib Dem TV | Tagged and | 1 Comment
Mark Pack

YouTube publishes party leader video responses

By Mark Pack | Fri 30th April 2010 - 3:10 pm

Until earlier this week it would have seemed a good idea to use the day before the final party leaders’ debate to launch the leaders’ answers to YouTube’s Digital Debate questions. Gordon Brown, a live mike and the word “bigot” rather buried the whole story which is a shame as the questions and answers explore a range of issues beyond the well-trodden ground of most of the mainstream media coverage.

You can watch the answers over at http://www.youtube.com/ukelection – and in particular look out for Nick Clegg’s very strong answer on the Digital Economy Bill question.

Also posted in Online politics | Tagged and | Leave a comment
Mark Pack

Most unusual complaint of the election so far…

By Mark Pack | Fri 30th April 2010 - 12:50 pm

… goes to West Sussex Conservative County Councillor Pete Bradbury who has emailed round to other councillors (Lib Dem and Conservative) complaining that there are too many posters being put up in his patch.

Far be it from me to suggest that the cause of the complaint can be explained by adding the words “Liberal Democrat” in front of “posters”…

Tagged and | 2 Comments
Stephen Tall

Final debate polls put Cameron ahead, but floating voters choose Clegg

By Stephen Tall | Fri 30th April 2010 - 1:00 am

All the post-debate polls are in, and four out of five are giving David Cameron a win, with Clegg tied in first place in one, and in second place in three. Brown is last in all but one:

    YouGov: Cameron 41%, Clegg 32%, Brown 25%.
    ComRes: Cameron 35%, Clegg 33%, Brown 26%.
    Populus: Cameron 38%, Clegg 38%, Brown 25%.
    ICM: Cameron 35%, Clegg 27%, Brown 29%.
    Angus Reid: Cameron 36%, Clegg 30%, Brown 23%.

Well, I guess seeing as Clegg was judged to have won the first two debates it was only fair that Cameron should have a consolation prize 🙂

For me, it was a score draw, and I do wonder how far the narrow win for Cameron in the post-debate polls reflects more settled party preferences. As Andrew Rawnsley tweeted:

Early post-debate polls (DC 1, NC 2, GB 3) reflecting party positions in national polls. Minds being made up?

It was certainly a better, more convincing performance from Cameron than in his first (disastrous) performance, or his second improved debate. Brown was less good tonight than in earlier debates – relatively speaking, I mean – less empathetic, more dogmatic, still just as tired.

Clegg was under attack far more than in the first debate, but withstood the pressure well; his continuing calls for parties to work together better resonates with the public far more than it does with cynical politicos and hacks.

Continue reading »
Also posted in Polls | Tagged | 46 Comments
Alex Foster

The Third Leaders’ Debate: Live chat

By Alex Foster | Thu 29th April 2010 - 8:15 pm

Welcome to Lib Dem Voice’s coverage of the third televised debate between the three main party leaders, an event perhaps even more keenly anticpated than last week’s inaugural debate – though the viewing figures will almost certainly be fewer. As last week, we’re co-hosting live-chat, below, simultaneously with the Mark Reckons blog.

Continue reading »
Also posted in News | Tagged | 14 Comments

Opinion: Why a nationalist should vote Lib Dem

By David Lawson | Thu 29th April 2010 - 6:18 pm

So much of the attack on the Lib Dems is based on the idea that we are a “sell out” to Europe. That we won’t stand up for Britain – though it often really means England. This attack has – to us at least – the slight feel of the American survivalist right criticising the US Democrats for selling out to a UN-based “world government”. In other words: it’s nonsense.

But that is an argument to be settled by details. We should also make a positive case. Of course we could have said patriot but let’s go the whole way: why should a nationalist vote Lib Dem? This has been especially relevant following the foreign policy debate which the other parties have seen as the best attack on the Lib Dems.

The two-party system sets up a contest of opposites and then lets one of them win.

For decades those opposites were based on class interests with a sharp north-south regional divide and a simple conflict between capitalism and socialism. What nationalists want is a nation divided – by class or by region or by any other sectarianism.

Continue reading »
Also posted in Op-eds | 8 Comments
Alex Foster

Note to agents: do not publish anything you learn at postal vote opening

By Alex Foster | Thu 29th April 2010 - 4:35 pm

Twitter has come alive in the last two hours with tweets and retweets of Labour’s new media Tsarina Kerry McCarthy, who appears to have attended a postal vote opening session in her constituency of Bristol East – and then tweeted her tally totals.

Just to be clear, this is illegal. You should not do it. If you are attending postal vote processing sessions or are an agent yourself, please make sure your entire team knows that anything you learn at that session cannot be shared.

Mark Pack has the full listing of the section of the law that applies …

Continue reading »
Also posted in Election law | Tagged , and | 6 Comments
Stephen Tall

Peter Tatchell: Greens should vote Lib Dem to unseat Labour and Tories

By Stephen Tall | Wed 28th April 2010 - 1:20 pm

Pink News reports that LDV’s Liberal Voice of the Year Peter Tatchell has urged Green supporters to vote tactically for the Lib Dems where Nick Clegg’s party is best placed to unseat Labour or Tories:

Former Green Party candidate and gay rights activist Peter Tatchell has called for Green supporters to vote for the Liberal Democrats in certain seats. … He told PinkNews.co.uk today that he was not a Lib Dem supporter but the party promises to change the “corrupt” voting system.

Mr Tatchell, who emphasised he was speaking in a personal capacity, said: “On May 6th, Labour could come

…

Continue reading »
Tagged , , and | 17 Comments
Mark Pack

How the reach of party campaigning is measuring up

By Mark Pack | Wed 28th April 2010 - 12:20 pm

A YouGov poll earlier this week asked people which, if any, of the parties had contacted them in the previous week (numbers in brackets from similar survey in mid-April):

Conservatives: 39% (31%)
Labour: 34% (25%)
Lib Dem: 29% (19%)

(Overall contact rates are also up on February, though the Brunel survey then wasn’t conducted in quite the same way.)

Amongst those contacted by each party, leafleting dominates with email is ahead of the phone:

Conservatives: 93% leafleted, 13% door stepped, 10% emailed, 3% phoned
Labour: 94% leafleted, 12% door stepped, 5% emailed, 5% phoned
Lib Dem: 94% leafleted, 13% door stepped, 8% emailed, 3% phoned

Also posted in Online politics | 5 Comments
Stephen Tall

LDVideo: Paxman and Boulton slug it out

By Stephen Tall | Wed 28th April 2010 - 7:45 am

Here’s two rather different perspectives of our esteemed Fourth Estate in action. One shows a journalist who’s done his homework, and gets increasingly fed up with the refusal of a politician to deal in honest facts. The other shows a journalist who’s failed to do his homework, and gets increasingly frustrated with the persistence of a politician in exposing his laziness. See if you can work out which is which …

Adam Boulton takes on Lord Mandelson on spending cuts


(Also available on YouTube here).

Jeremy Paxman nailed by Plaid Cymru economist

Continue reading »
Also posted in YouTube | Tagged and | 5 Comments
Stephen Tall

Pollwatch Day 22 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 28-29% in today’s polls

By Stephen Tall | Tue 27th April 2010 - 11:30 pm

Three polls published tonight:

    Populus in The Times … CON 36%(+4), LAB 27%(-1), LIB DEM 28%(-3)
    YouGov in The Sun … CON 33%(nc), LAB 29%(+1), LIB DEM 28%(-1)
    ComRes for ITV/The Independent … CON 33%(+1), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 29%(-2)

The big shift is in the Populus survey – however, the last time they polled was at the peak of the Lib Dems’ post-debate surge, so the result is pretty much in line with other polls showing the Lib Dems hovering around the 30% mark – albeit the Tories are at their highest point since before Nick Clegg’s rise to fame.

I suggested in

Continue reading »
Also posted in Polls | 10 Comments
Stephen Tall

What the IFS says about Lib Dem policies (the good and the less good)

By Stephen Tall | Tue 27th April 2010 - 8:00 pm

The Institute for Fiscal Studies today delivered its Election Briefing 2010 verdict. We’ve looked at what it says about Lib Dem policies, and publish relevant extracts, below – highlighting both the positive aspects, and those where the IFS says the Lib Dems are lacking.

But if you don’t have time to read even our filleted version, here’s the filleted fillet:

  • In terms of reducing the deficit, the Tories will cut public spending most, Labour least; while Labour will increase taxes most, the Tories least. The Lib Dems are in the middle when it comes both to public spending cuts and tax increases.
  • As it stands Labour will have to find a further £7bn of tax increases in the next five years; the Tories will have to reverse half their announced £6bn tax cuts; while the Lib Dems will not have to go beyond what is already set out in the party’s manifesto.
  • Under either the Lib Dems or Labour public spending cuts in the next five years will have to be the most severe in a generation. Under the Tories the cuts would be the most severe in modern history.
  • No party has set out how it will tackle the deficit in full: the Lib Dems have gone furthest in being open and honest with voters, identifying over 25% of measures needed, ahead of either the Tories (17%) or Labour (13%).
  • The IFS does not believe there is a black hole in the Lib Dems’ tax reforms, and states that they are “progressive”.
  • The Lib Dem proposal to take all those earning under £10,000 out of income tax will be a better work incentive than the Tories’ proposed NI tax cut.
  • Only the Lib Dems have been clear about dedicating a £2.5 billion pupil premium to help pupils poor enough to be eligible for free school meals. The Tories’ pledge is labelled “unclear” by the IFS, while Labour is accused of re-badging existing money.

Here’s the fuller version …

Continue reading »
Tagged | 9 Comments
Stephen Tall

3 to see: Lib Dem #GE2010 campaign coverage (27/4/10)

By Stephen Tall | Tue 27th April 2010 - 10:15 am

Want to keep up with what’s happening in the media but too busy campaigning? Here’s a handy guide to a trio of today’s most essential stories …

Nick Clegg: I could work with Labour, just not Gordon Brown (Guardian)
The Lib Dem leader states his position in the event of Labour coming third behind the Lib Dems in share of the vote:

I think, if Labour do come third in terms of the number of votes cast, then people would find it inexplicable that Gordon Brown himself could carry on as prime minister. As for who I’d work with, I’ve been very

…

Continue reading »
3 Comments
Stephen Tall

Pollwatch Day 21 #GE2010 – Lib Dems in second place, at 28-31%, in today’s polls

By Stephen Tall | Mon 26th April 2010 - 11:40 pm

Four polls published tonight, as follows:

    ICM in the Guardian … CON 33%(-2), LAB 28%(+2), LIB DEM 30%(-1)
    Opinium in the Express … CON 34%(+2), LAB 25%(-1), LIB DEM 28%(-1)
    ComRes for ITV/Independent … CON 32%(-2), LAB 28%(nc), LIB DEM 31%(+2)
    YouGov in the Sun … CON 33%(-1), LAB 28%(nc), LIB DEM 29%(-1)

All movement is within the margin of error, and the degree of stability in the polls is striking: the Tories are at 32-34%, Lib Dems at 28-31% and Labour at 25-28%. Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ shows the Lib Dems edging up:

    CON 33%, LAB 27%, LIB DEM 30%

It …

Continue reading »
Also posted in Polls | Tagged , and | 5 Comments
NewsHound

LibLink: James Graham – Lib Dems will make Labour sweat

By NewsHound | Mon 26th April 2010 - 9:50 pm

Over at The Guardian’s Comment is Free website, Lib Dem blogger James Graham pours a bucket of swill over Labour’s panicked suggestions that Nick Clegg’s about to jump into bed with the Tories. And another equal bucket of swill over the idea that Labour can take Nick Clegg for a patsy. Here’s an excerpt:

There are only two things I am certain of in this election. First, every vote for the Liberal Democrats is not just a vote for more Lib Dem MPs, but will strengthen Nick Clegg’s negotiating position. The time for tactical voting has passed: it is time

…

Continue reading »
Also posted in LibLink | Tagged | 2 Comments
Stephen Tall

Gurkhas join in Lib Dem election campaign in Maidstone

By Stephen Tall | Mon 26th April 2010 - 7:50 pm

The BBC reports:

Gurkhas have joined in the election campaign in Maidstone to support the Liberal Democrat candidate for Ann Widdecombe’s former Kent seat. Lib Dem candidate Peter Carroll set up the Gurkha Justice Campaign, which last year won the right for the Gurkhas to settle in the UK.

Mr Carroll said the Gurkhas, who are based in Folkestone, travelled to Maidstone on Saturday. “They brought all their musicians and dancers and it was like a carnival.”

Readers of the best-selling Why Vote Lib Dem book will have had chance to read a short article by Madan Kumar Gurung, a …

Continue reading »
Tagged , and | 5 Comments
Stephen Tall

David Cameron: scaremongering means just what I choose it to mean

By Stephen Tall | Mon 26th April 2010 - 6:35 pm

Compare …

I just think it is disgraceful to try and frighten people in an election campaign … You should not be frightening people in an election campaign, it is just not right.”

David Cameron in the second TV debate, 22nd April

… and Contrast

“It’s now all becoming clear – the great plan of Nick Clegg’s is becoming clear – he’s only interested in one thing and that is changing our electoral system so that we have a permanent hung Parliament, we have a permanent coalition, we never have strong and decisive government. That’s what he wants to do – it’s now becoming

…

Continue reading »
Tagged | 1 Comment
Stephen Tall

1992 déjà vu? Or can 2010 be different?

By Stephen Tall | Mon 26th April 2010 - 5:35 pm

If there’s one thing worse than being talked about, it’s not being talked about. That might be true normally, but perhaps not when the subject is hung parliaments and what the Lib Dems might do in the event thereof.

Nick Clegg made a perfectly uncontroversial point on Sunday: that it would be inconceivable for the Lib Dems to prop up Gordon Brown as prime minister if Labour came third in terms of votes cast on 6th May. Of course it would be, no matter what the constitutional niceties might say about the right of an incumbent prime minister to try …

Continue reading »
Also posted in Op-eds | 12 Comments
The Voice

Nick: our Armed Forces deserve better pay and homes

By The Voice | Mon 26th April 2010 - 10:30 am

Nick Clegg will today set out plans to improve family homes for the Armed Forces and make troops’ pay fair.

Announcing the plans, Nick said:

The brave men and women of our Armed Forces have been left under-equipped and under-paid by Labour. The Liberal Democrats will change this. Gordon Brown has failed to give our troops all the kit they need to do their job. And he has failed to give them a decent wage for the work they do and a decent home to raise their kids in.

“Someone spending six months fighting half way around the world to keep us safe should not have to worry about leaving their family in a shoddy, run-down home. They should not have to worry about whether they are paid enough to provide for their loved ones.

“The Liberal Democrats will bring forces family homes up to standard in half the time the Government plans, and we will increase the salary of our lowest paid troops by £6,000. We are committed to a fair deal for our Armed Forces. These changes are affordable because we have proposed £15bn of cuts and savings elsewhere in government each year, including cutting waste in the Ministry of Defence.”

Here’s the detail of the proposals from the party’s press release:

Continue reading »
Also posted in News | Tagged and | 1 Comment
Stephen Tall

3 to see: Lib Dem #GE2010 campaign coverage (26/4/10)

By Stephen Tall | Mon 26th April 2010 - 9:45 am

Want to keep up with what’s happening in the media but too busy campaigning? Here’s a handy guide to a trio of today’s most essential stories …

The media obsesses about hung parliament possibilities …

Nick Clegg used his appearance on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show to make the obvious point that the Lib Dems would not prop up a Labour government if it finished third in the popular vote but ahead in terms of number of MPs:

Continue reading »
7 Comments
Stephen Tall

Pollwatch Day 20 #GE2010 – Lib Dems back at 30%

By Stephen Tall | Sun 25th April 2010 - 10:00 pm

Just one poll published tonight (so far at any rate):

    YouGov in the Sun … CON 34%(-1), LAB 28%(+1), LIB DEM 30%(+2)

So much for the charge – led by its sister-paper – that the Lib Dem bubble had burst. The poll suggests the party is continuing to hover at the 30% mark, and continuing to push Labour into third place.

There was incidentally one other poll published we omitted to report last night: BPIX (the firm which refuses to comply with polling industry standards) showed CON 34%(+3), LAB 26%(-2), LIB DEM 30%(-2).

It does seems as if the party is heading into …

Continue reading »
Also posted in Polls | 4 Comments
Mark Pack

The problem for Labour and the Tories in attacking Lib Dem policies…

By Mark Pack | Sun 25th April 2010 - 7:26 pm

From today’s YouGov poll in the Sunday Times (one of the questions which I don’t think was reported in the paper, though I’ve not seen a hard copy):

The other parties have been targeting Liberal Democrat policies in recent days. What is your view of this?

It shows the parties are doing their job – the Liberal Democrats need to be scrutinised: 34%
It shows the other parties are rattled: 53%

This one also looks to have been unreported:

Newspapers have questioned Nick Clegg’s personal financial dealings. What is your view on the basis of what you know about this?

He has serious questions to …

Continue reading »
Also posted in Polls | Tagged and | 5 Comments
Stephen Tall

LDVideo Election Special (3): Vince is right, South Park Lib Dem stylee, Leaders’ Wives & The Weakest Link

By Stephen Tall | Sun 25th April 2010 - 6:35 pm

A special Sunday treat: ten of the top political videos from the past week. But, annoyingly, spread out over three separate posts to help you keep checking out Lib Dem Voice’s election coverage. Here are the final three …

Vince Cable is right about everything


(Also available on YouTube here).

The Lib Dems meet South Park:

Continue reading »
Also posted in YouTube | 3 Comments
Advert

Recent Comments

  • Nigel Jones
    @Mick Taylor, I agree we must be concerned about income inequality in current circumstances, though overcoming this is about taxing the rich, better public serv...
  • Nigel Jones
    @Mick Taylor, you are right to focus on strategy since we have plenty of policy, but i think we also need a vision and better messaging. It is easy to have stro...
  • Nigel Jones
    The New Deal graphic is very helpful but of course not perfect. As to preventing Reform from winning, we need to be an anti-establishment party as Chris Bowers ...
  • Nigel Jones
    It is certainly true that community politics is insufficient for long term gain. That was my experience in 13 yrs as a councillor and still active locally; at o...
  • Katharine Pindar
    Splendid stuff, well done Yorkists! 'The New Deal' seems a great idea in itself. Your graphic shows, however, how much work will need to be done to assert ourse...