Category Archives: Op-eds

The Israel-Palestine Peace Process in 2018 and the UK Lib Dems

A cross-party Early Day Motion (EDM1169) currently in the House of Commons deals with the imminent demolition by the Israeli military of a whole Palestinian Bedouin village, Al Khan Al-Ahmar, in the Occupied Territories. This raises broader concerns over aspects of the current Israeli Government’s policy on Israeli ‘settlers’ in the West Bank.

So far only Tom Brake MP and Norman Lamb MP among the Lib Dems have signed this EDM, which to date has enjoyed the insufficient publicity. I wish to bring this EDM to the attention of our MPs with the aim of having more Lib Dem MPs sign it.

Public controversy on Israel-Palestine issues in the last two weeks has been focused on embassies moving to Jerusalem, and related protests on the Gaza/Israel ‘border’. However, this EDM refers to something more important for long-term prospects for peace.

Speaking personally, I am neither pro-Israel nor pro-Palestinian; I am ‘pro-peace & prosperity’, for the whole Eastern Mediterranean region.

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Lib Dem MPs support abortion rights for women in Northern Ireland

Three Liberal Democrat MPs took part in yesterday’s Commons debate on giving women in Northern Ireland access to legal and safe abortions without having to travel. The recent vote to repeal the 8th amendment to the Irish constitution, paving the way for legislation allowing abortion up to 12 weeks in Ireland and the provisions of the 1967 Act in the rest of the UK. The issue has been devolved to the Northern Ireland assembly since 2003, but that Assembly is not currently sitting. The Irish referendum and a UN report from earlier this year which stated that:

the situation in

…

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Federal Conference Committee Report Back

Firstly, Andrew Wiseman stepping down as Chair of Federal Conference Committee (FCC) and Geoff Payne’s subsequent election as his replacement left a vacancy for one of two Vice Chair slots on the committee. As has been reported previously on LibDemVoice, Nick da Costa won the subsequent election and joined me as Vice Chair. Andrew’s departure from the committee also left a vacancy for an ordinary member and based on a recount of the original election result we can now welcome Jon Ball back on to FCC.

FCC then had the chance to question a representative of Your Liberal Britain about their …

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Four go in search of big ideas

In the recent Social Liberal Forum book, David Boyle asserts that “free trade and anti-trust lay at the heart of Liberalism and Liberal economics from the start of the party”. His essay overlaps with David Howarth’s contribution in returning Liberal and LibDem economics to its roots, rejecting the false claim that “neo-liberalism” in any way represents the liberal tradition.

David writes that: “The original Liberal idea of free trade was not a simple license to do whatever you want, if you were rich and powerful enough. It was thoroughly aware of Adam Smith’s original warning that collusion between entrenched businesses can end in “a conspiracy against the public”. Liberal free trade “was designed as a means of liberation – so that the small could challenge the big, the poor could challenge the rich with the power of the new approach, the alternative provider, the imaginative, liberating shift”.

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A Very English Scandal

There are two incontrovertible facts concerning the Thorpe saga. First, that the dog Rinka was shot dead. Secondly, that Norman Scott wasn’t. Everything else depended upon the various and varying accounts of a number of highly unsatisfactory witnesses.

The BBC theme music swings with a jauntiness which matches Jeremy’s brown titfer. The story is based upon Peter Bessell’s discredited account in court. Bessell was extracted from California to give evidence on the promise of an immunity from arrest for fraud, and with £25,000 in his pocket from the Telegraph plus the promise of a further £25,000 if Jeremy were to be convicted. From the prosecution point of view, he was a nightmare witness but they called him anyway, more in hope I would think, than with any confidence he could withstand George Carman’s withering cross-examination. What material for a defending counsel! Bessell bombed. One anecdote must have gone down well with the jury: he told them that Thorpe had initially proposed to have Scott poisoned in a pub but that when it was pointed out to Jeremy that it would not look good if Scott fell off his barstool dead, he replied that the hired hit man should simply enquire of the barman the way to a convenient mine shaft. Even though the BBC show was played as farce, that revealing gem of Bessell’s evidence was omitted.

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Liberal Democrats must fight every PCC election in 2020

Like most Liberal Democrats I opposed the introduction of Police & Crime Commissioners, and I still do. I would support abolishing them and returning the governance of our local police constabularies to boards of elected councillors.

In Gloucestershire where we have co-terminus boundaries with the county’s constabulary we could be even more radical and hand back the governance of police to Gloucestershire County Council.

Under this government we know major governance changes won’t happen and that in 2020 we shall have elections for the PCCs in England and Wales. In 2016 Liberal Democrats only stood candidates in 30 out of 40 PCC …

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Layla Moran talks about her bariatric surgery on Any Questions and calls for focus on wellbeing in schools

Layla was brilliant on Any Questions on Friday night. You can listen to the whole thing here. The bit I especially appreciated was when she spoke very frankly about her own experience when answering a question about obesity.

11 year old Olivia Metcalfe asked:

Given the the amount of media coverage relating to childhood obesity has had little or no effect on the problem, what would be the panel’s favourite option – taxation, legislation or education and why?

Layla said that as a former teacher, she’d be very proud of any of her students who came up with a question like that and then made a revelation.

You will be unsurprised to hear that I think education’s top of that list. But I will also reveal something very personal about myself. I was an obese child for most of my childhood and well into my twenties and  ended up having a bariatric operation and lost pretty much half my body weight…

…I think there are elements of this that are genetic and I will say that the largest reason why for me that this was a problem was more about mental health and wellbeing and confidence and feeling good about yourself. It wasn’t necessarily a lack of opportunity of all of those things but the point I’m trying to make is that it was a much more complex, much more personal issue than I think sometimes the debate about this has become. We’ve kind of got to the point where we say oh, just eat less, exercise more and that will solve the problem.

The fact is that there are lots and lots of different reasons why people are obese. Lots of them are out of their control and I do think that there are some things that society can help with. So I do think that things like the Sugar Tax are helpful. I don’t think we should be advertising junk food to children at all. I think there is a wider question about why we are advertising to children at all about anything.  But I do think a large part of it is that we need to look at ourselves wider in society. It’s not going to just from government that this is going to work, it needs to be a much broader issue and crucially I do think we need to bring wellbeing back into schools and make time get to know children and know them as people and help them not just about this but in all sorts of issues to help them become healthy adults and I was very lucky to have that opportunity.

I think Layla’s perspective is crucial. I have spent much of my life struggling with my weight. Many of you will already know that I lost seven stones a couple of years ago. I’ve found a bit of it in the intervening period but I’m trying to keep it under control.  have never managed to do is to lose weight when my mental health or self image has not been good. Confidence and wellbeing have always been crucial for me.  Shaming people is very likely to have the opposite effect.

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The housing crisis – long overdue for some “big ideas”

You can tell things must be getting really bad when even the Conservatives are concerned about the shortfall of affordable houses. Survation recently polled 121 senior Conservative councillors, on behalf of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation ahead of the government’s publication of its social housing green paper, expected in the next few months.  The poll found 71% were concerned that the £2bn Government set aside for affordable housing in the Autumn Budget will be insufficient to meet the needs of their constituents.

So what solutions do we need?  Alex Marsh, a housing policy expert, has set out some truly radical proposals n the Social Liberal Forum’s new book, Four Go In Search of Big Ideas.  After setting out the commonly accepted “truths” of our current housing crisis, he crucially asks, “Is it all about new supply?”  He argues:

A more profound criticism of this approach to dealing with our housing problems is that it is based upon a misdiagnosis. The argument is that if we view the issue in terms of the amount of housing available relative to the number of residents then the country is not suffering from a significant shortage of accommodation. The issue is its distribution .  Some people are occupying a lot more housing than others, many households are squeezing into overcrowded accommodation and others are squeezed out of the market entirely. In this respect the problems of the housing market are in part a manifestation of broader social and economic changes, including changes in income and wealth inequality or welfare reform and increased use of benefit sanctions. We see problems in the housing market, but they are not necessarily problems of the housing market.

It is through these kinds of radical ways of looking at our current problems that we can generate new ideas and new solutions.  And Alex proposes some truly radical liberal ideas—ideas that should be of interest to any true Liberal.  He says: 

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Vince on how the Lib Dems are transforming British politics – but can we do better?

In an article in the New Statesman, Vince outlines the three elements necessary to transform British politics from its current divisive, dystopian, dysfunctional state.

The first is following the example of the Canadian Liberals who went from third place to Government in just a few years.

Justin Trudeau was the result of a concerted effort to open up the Liberal Party to a wider support base through open primaries for the national leadership and MPs.

He talks a lot about open primaries these days although we’ve yet to see proposals of how this would work in practice and already many of our …

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How Britain staying in can help hold the EU together

 Little by little, the Brexiteers are losing their battle to force our country out of the EU. Although it isn’t yet generally recognised that the vaunted ‘will of the people’ is being exploited by wealthy individuals who have no interest in the economic well-being of ordinary citizens,  moderate pragmatists in both the UK and the EU seem to be strengthening our ties, to mutual benefit – all the more desirable, in a time of trade war.

First, there was the acceptance by Mrs May’s government that things will stay the same, in UK  contributions and rule-keeping and access, throughout a ‘transition period’ up to the end of 2020. Now we hear that the EU Council, representing the individual states, has invited Britain to help determine the EU’s budget up to 2027, in the expectation that we will still be paying large sums to Brussels for years after Brexit.

According to a report in The Times on Tuesday, our government is accepting this invitation, to the fury of both Brexiteers and, interestingly, the EU Commission, which has just presented its seven-year budget proposals for the years 2021- 2028. The Commission is proposing that the gap in finances caused by Britain’s departure should be filled by higher national contributions and spending cuts. The Council apparently prefers to keep Britain’s contributions flowing in. If so, May’s wish for ‘greatest possible access to the single market’ could be granted for several more years, at a suitable price.

Yet this is surely just another sip from a poisoned chalice for Remainers. As with the transition period, acceptance of a further period of ‘belonging’ – like a foster-child bound to leave ‘home’ eventually – obscures the fatal date of the end of March next year when we are pledged to leave. Later rather than sooner, all the ills of severance from our greatest trading partner must happen, unless the British people are given the chance to vote to stay in through a referendum on the deal arranged this year. 

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Charles Kennedy – three years on

It’s three years since we woke up to the awful news that Charles Kennedy had died.  Just weeks earlier he had lost his seat of Ross, Skye and Lochaber. A few days after that, he wrote this article for us:

I am very fond of political history. If nothing else, we can all reflect on and perhaps tell our grandchildren that we were there on “The night of long sgian dubhs!”

I would very much like to thank my home team. They have been so energetic, dedicated and selfless to the task. Indeed, with them, I would like to thank the very many over the years who have made possible the previous seven successful general election campaigns locally.

I spare a thought for, and this is true of so many constituencies, for members of staff. It is one thing for elected representatives to find themselves at the mercy of the electorate; it is quite something else for the other loyal and skilled people who, sadly, will in due course be searching for employment. I wish them well and stand ready to help. I am sure that their professionalism will stand them in good stead.

It has been the greatest privilege of my adult and public life to have served, for 32 years, as the Member of Parliament for our local Highlands and Islands communities. I would particularly like to thank the generation of voters, and then some, who have put their trust in me to carry out that role and its responsibilities.

Locally, I wish my successor the very best. The next House of Commons will have to finalise the Smith Commission package, giving effect to the referendum “Vow” over further powers. I am saddened not to be involved in that process.

However, from the perspective of the Highlands & Islands, the case for more powers being returned to us which have been lost to the Central Belt over the past five years, has to be heard as well.

On the national picture, I am indeed sorry to learn of Nick’s decision but respect entirely his characteristic sense of personal, political and party principle.

The eligible candidates must reflect with care and collectively before we rush into the best way forward – out of this political debris we must build with thought and care.

Nick, I do hope, will be able to contribute with gusto to the great European debate which is now looming.

It is one, as a Liberal Democrat, in which I wish to be actively engaged myself.

The next few years in politics will come down to a tale of two Unions – the UK and the EU. Despite all the difficult challenges ahead the Liberal Democrat voice must and will be heard.

We did so over Iraq; we can do so again. Let us relish the prospect.

Whether you agreed with him or not, Charles was almost universally loved in the party. Within a month of his ousting as party leader, he turned up in Dunfermline to hep Willie Rennie during his victorious by-election campaign. “We love you, Charlie” shouted a woman in the crowd.

Today’s angry politics sure could do with some of his wit and wisdom. During the horrible Scottish independence referendum, he was one of the few people liked by both sides.

In the Commons, a couple of days after he died, his son Donald watched as people from all over the House paid tribute. Here, courtesy of the Guardian, are some excerpts.

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Review: Anger Management Episode 4 – Nick Clegg in conversation with Harriet Harman

The other day, I raised an eyebrow that Nick Clegg had so far only interviewed white men on his Anger Management podcast.

Yesterday, a fair few of my Christmases arrived together when a new episode had one of my favourite politicians, Harriet Harman in conversation with Nick. I was going to say that she was the first elected politician he’d had on, but then I remembered he’d had Farage who is pocketing a fortune as a part-time MEP. I haven’t quite had the spoons to listen to that one yet.

It was a good chat with a couple of newsworthy moments – particularly when he asked her if she was interested in becoming Speaker and she said she wasn’t going to talk about it because there wasn’t a vacancy. I’m reading that as a “yes” if there should be a vacancy, but I always have been an optimist.

I will remember this podcast mostly for its missed opportunities though. I just wish both of them hadn’t been quite so polite. I know it’s about anger so there’s almost an obligation to be reasonable, but that doesn’t mean you can’t have a bit of fun.

I was willing Harriet (even though it was obviously pre-recorded and there was therefore no point) to ask Nick why he hadn’t put a woman in the Cabinet in 5 years as Deputy PM.

When Harriet talked about how she had not time for faux anger, if I’d have been Nick I’d have brought up a) the mockrage from Labour at every coalition cut when they would have made most of them themselves and b) that time Harriet let herself down by referring to Danny Alexander as a ginger rodent. Certainly she was quick to apologise at the time and then had the good grace to show up when the beer that was created after that was served in the House of Commons. It just might have been interesting to go through what goes through your head when you say something you shouldn’t. We all do it and it might have been interesting to discuss it well after the event in a calmer setting.

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Observations of an ex pat: Divorce settlement

It was the marriage of the century. John Bull and Europa were tying the knot. After hundreds of years of on/off romances and on/off tiffs, the two rivals had decided they were both better off as one household rather than as two feuding neighbours.

Let’s be honest, JB was the more reluctant of the two. For centuries he had been top dog, with conquests right across the globe. He didn’t just have a girl in every port, he owned the ports and the hinterlands beyond.

Unfortunately two successive wars with Europa’s close relative Herr Hun had cost him dearly. JB could no longer afford to maintain his worldwide harem, many of whom were tiring of his attentions anyway.

So, he jumped into the marital bed with Europa who had come up with the novel idea of stopping feuds between her troublesome family members by making them economically interdependent. Admitting JB to the select circle with a marriage contract was the coup de grace of years of complex wooing and negotiation.

For awhile everything went swimmingly. There was a definite honeymoon period. But some of JB’s family were unhappy about the nuptials. Their heads told them that the family business could do better linked to Paris, Brussels, Frankfurt and Rome. But their hearts yearned to be sailing across the high seas, sledging through the Canadian Arctic or slashing their way through the jungles of Africa and South Asia.

They started a whispering campaign against the marriage in general and Europa in particular. She was greedy, corrupt, dictatorial, domineering, overpowering, undemocratic and, most of all, not British. The whispers grew to a debate. The debate grew to a row and finally John Bull decided to call the family together for a vote on whether or not to sue for divorce. There was a fierce campaign of misinformation, half-truths and outright lies and finally the family voted by a narrow majority for divorce.

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Europe: the history of the Liberal commitment

Opposition to Brexit has become of the defining characteristics of today’s Liberal Democrats. And probably everyone knows that our predecessors in the Liberal Party supported British entry to the European Community in the 1970s and before. But where does this commitment derive from? The latest Journal of Liberal History (issue 98, spring 2018) explores the historical origins of the Liberal commitment to Europe.

As Anthony Howe discusses in the first article, one of the foundations of Victorian Liberalism in the nineteenth century was support for free trade, the removal of tariffs (import and export duties) on trade in goods. Normally discussed today in terms of the economic benefits, Liberal support in fact drew much more strongly from a belief in free trade as an engine of peace, building links between nations and promoting a cooperative rather than a military interventionist approach to international problems.

Eugenio Biagini analyses the different approaches to Europe adopted by the Liberal leaders W. E. Gladstone and Joseph Chamberlain. Gladstone, a committed internationalist, was a fervent supporter of free trade and an opponent of jingoistic nationalism; he was not opposed to the principle of pan-national empires, as long as their rule rested on consent and the protection of basic liberties. Chamberlain, the radical who broke with the Liberal Party over Irish Home Rule, followed a different, ‘social imperialist’ path, arguing for the need for states to be powerful, democratic and reformist in social policy – strong enough to survive in the brutal world of international relations while also fending off the rising threat of socialism. His proposals for tariffs against imports from outside the British Empire, with the aim of binding the colonies more closely together, helped heal the divisions in the Liberal Party and underlay the Liberal landslide election victory of 1906.

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We need to talk about tax

The developing consensus that the NHS needs more money, and that there is nowhere else for that to come from except increased taxation, shows that there are some things that voters may well be willing to pay more for in order to get better-quality service.  But we need, also, to recognise how strong the anti-tax lobby in this country is, and how difficult it will be to shift popular perceptions that others should pay more, but we deserve lower taxes ourselves.

Liberal Democrats beat themselves up about their collaboration in the coalition’s austerity programme.  Our mistake was not to mount a stronger argument in 2010 for funding a higher proportion of the adjustment through tax increases rather than cuts.

But we ought to recognise that all three parties have collaborated in the myth that decent public services could be provided without higher and more progressive taxation.

Margaret Thatcher set the tone, financing public services partly through the windfall revenues from North Sea oil – instead of establishing a sovereign wealth fund as the Norwegians did –  and partly through selling off state assets to fund current spending (‘selling off the family silver’, as the elderly Harold Macmillan had remarked).

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Lib Dems demand new money to fund pay rise for teachers

Leading Liberal Democrats have written to the Chancellor calling for new, dedicated money from the Treasury to fund teachers’ future pay rises and are seeking cross-party support. 

The call comes amid fears that the Government will accept a pay rise for teachers, but won’t provide schools extra money to fund for it.

The Liberal Democrats MP argues that schools are “under huge financial pressures” and it is the responsibility of the Chancellor to “save them and their pupils from the inevitable consequences of a further erosion in the funding.”

The School Teachers Pay Review body has been looking into the issue of teachers pay and has made recommendations to the Government, which Education Ministers are due to respond to shortly.

The party’s Education Spokesperson Layla Moran has written to MPs seeking cross-party support for the campaign.

Commenting, Liberal Democrat Education Spokesperson Layla Moran said: 

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Brexit will devastate food and farming standards

For the £110bn-a-year agriculture and food sector in the UK, the EU accounts for 60 percent of exports and 70 percent of imports. As there is likely to be no trading or customs agreement with the EU, it will mean that we will have to trade with the EU on World Trade Organisation (WTO) tariffs. The WTO tariffs will increase the price of goods coming into the UK, and this will have a significant adverse impact on the agricultural industry and consumers.

Although we will be able to agree on trade deals with other parts of the world (if we leave the EU), we should not compromise on our high standards for animal welfare, environmental and food standards. The government also needs to ensure that whatever border agreement they finally settle on, that movement of food perishable goods is not at risk.

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Windrush Generation (linked to policy motion for Conference)

Windrush; not just institutional racism, shocking callousness too.

Up to 1834 if you were poor and alone, and long-term sick, disabled, orphaned, or too elderly for heavy work, you were likely to be sent by the government to a workhouse.

We might look back on this time and wonder how utterly brutal our government institutions were. We live in a modern democracy now, and government departments would not be allowed to act in a knowingly callous way.

Or would they? Think again.

Think for example about Hubert Howard who arrived in the UK from Jamaica, in the 1960s aged three, legally. Who after thirteen years of trying, was denied a British passport, and was not allowed to visit his ailing mother overseas. Who as a result lost his job and the possibility of any benefits. The Home Office was the only institution that could show from their records that he was in the UK legally but denied him a passport.

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Childhood obesity a “time bomb”

Public Health England estimates that a quarter of children between two and ten years old are overweight or obese. There is a strong relationship between obese children and adults who have grown up and are overweight. Records show that obesity among children starting their first year of primary school has risen for the second year in a row and results from a survey of more than 1 million pupils across England, show 32.4% of girls and 36.1% of boys in the final primary school year are overweight or obese. Unfortunately, the children in deprived areas are much likely to be obese than those from affluent areas.

As the children grow obesity increases the risk of many health issues, including heart disease, diabetes, musculoskeletal disorders, cancers, depression and anxiety.  Estimates suggest obesity cost the NHS over £5 billion a year.

There is no single solution to obesity, and sustained actions are required to change poor diets. The government says that obesity is a priority and they have made efforts to introduce a soft drinks levy and sugar reduction programme. The government, however, needs to act on adverts for unhealthy foods and junk food.

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Potholes, Potholes, Potholes…

I remember when the World cup was held in Mexico (1986) a TV commentator remarked his taxi, that was taking him to the TV studios, swerved from one side of the road to the other to avoid the potholes. In fact, the only people who drove straight were those who were drunk. The statistics for potholes are staggering:

  • Potholes cost British motorists an estimated £2.8 billion every year;
  • Over £30 million is paid out in compensation claims;
  • It is estimated that road maintenance is underfunded by £1 billion every year. If local authorities were given the funds required to maintain the roads it would take English local authorities 12 years to catch up on the current backlog;
  • RAC call-outs resulting from cars hitting potholes was up to 5,540 incidents in the first three months of this year;
  • February 2018 alone and in a 2016 survey, 39% of the AA’s members claimed potholes had damaged their cars;
  • The average amount allowed for each repair is £53. A Department for Transport spokesman couldn’t explain how the figure was broken down.

Potholes result from water trickling into cracks in the road surface and freezing. When the ice expands, it cracks the tarmac. The weather is usually blamed for the state of the roads.

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The Incompatibility of Liberalism and Monarchy

We as a party pride ourselves on standing up for the values of liberal democracy. The mission statement on our membership cards declare us in favour of a “fair, free and open society” in which stands for “equality” and against a society in which we are enslaved by “ignorance or conformity”. However there is a glaring blind spot in these idealistic dedications, this is in our support for the continuance of the British Monarchy.

The hard truth, whether we choose to face it head on or not, is that the British Monarchy stands in complete defiance of values of …

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Helping the Homeless

One quick look around our town or city centres and you will have noticed that the number of homeless people on the streets has grown. According to Shelter, 281,000 people were living in temporary accommodation, 21,300 were in homeless hostels and 4,500 were sleeping on the streets.

London, the economic powerhouse of the UK, also suffers from one of the biggest blights – it is the homeless capital as well. In London, one in every 59 people are homeless. The Borough of Newham has the worst record, where one in every 27 residents are homeless.

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“Let’s take back control of our money and fund the NHS instead”

Sounds familiar? Time to make some sense of this slogan.

As shown here before, Brexit has already, and, if carried through, will continue to inflict massive economic damage to UK household incomes, tax revenues, and public spending potential.

According to the Bank of England, the British GDP is already £20 billion smaller than it would have been after a remain-vote. This is consistent with the 0.5% GDP growth underperformance of the UK compared to the G7 since 2016 (1% of GDP is equivalent to £20 billion). Given the UK’s previous position at the top of the G7 growth …

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Nick Clegg’s podcast interview with George Osborne didn’t help me manage my anger

I used a car journey yesterday to listen to Nick Clegg’s podcast, Anger Management, yesterday. I was a bit perturbed that he’s only been talking to white men of a certain age so far, but am reassured that this is going to change soon, with Harriet Harman and Elif Safak coming up.

I decided that yesterday’s sunshine was too lovely to be spoiled by listening to the chat with Nigel Farage, so I listened to the Know your Frenemy chat with George Osborne instead.

I still have some time for the coalition and the things that the Liberal Democrats brought to the table that did make life better for people – better mental health care, shared parental leave, extra money for disadvantaged kids in school and the like, ending child detention for immigration, all the green stuff we did and our work on international development. I am also acutely aware of the mistakes that we made, particularly around immigration (the minimum income requirement to bring your non British spouse in for a start) and cutbacks in social security that caused real misery. Sometimes stopping the Tories doing their worst just wasn’t enough.

So the conversation between Nick and George, a reuniting of half The Quad who made all the decisions during the coalition years, was peppered with several instances of Nick telling George how much he’d infuriated him. Hearing about Osborne’s upbringing was interesting, with his Labour voting mum and Conservative inclined father.

They had an interesting conversation about the media with Osborne, the newspaper editor, speaking up for newspapers and for regulation of  social media. 

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How can the Government proceed with Brexit if there’s evidence the public has changed its mind?

Of all the constitutional crises talked about round Brexit, surely the biggest is taking an irrevocable step that doesn’t have the backing of the British people at the point that it is made. If the UK exits the European Union on 29th March next year, it’s starting to look as if that move will not have the backing of the electorate.

Prospect magazine has analysis of YouGov polls conducted over the past two years which suggests that Remain would win a referendum on the Brexit deal. That surely means that the Government’s full-speed-ahead, devil-may-care approach to Brexit has no democratic …

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Observations of an ex pat…Told you so

It is so satisfying to say: “I told you so.”  It is also very annoying. It is, however, one of my life goals to be as annoying as possible to President Donald Trump and his misguided followers.

Being honest, however, I must admit that I am voicing the four-word  admonition  early in the Korean diplomatic ballet. This leaves me vulnerable to a devastating return volley of “I told you so’s” from the legion of Trump supporters.

I am willing to risk it.

It is no surprise that the Trump-Kim summit scheduled for Singapore in June is likely to be postponed indefinitely.  The White House is trying to rescue it. They may succeed. It is unlikely. The proposed summit was a poorly executed rush job. It raised unreasonable expectations for the American and world public . Its probable failure may have saved the Nobel Peace Prize committee from a difficult and embarrassing decision.

There are several reasons for the indefinite postponement: Lack of input from professional American diplomats; administration job changes;  US withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Accord; lack of pre-summit diplomacy; diplomatic semantics; continuing US-South Korean military manoeuvres and the personalities involved.

Staffing levels at the US State Department have been cut by almost a third. Many of its senior posts remain unfilled.  It is only this week—16 months after his inauguration—that Donald Trump has nominated someone to fill the important post of ambassador to South Korea.

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Recent stats on caring

I’ve been delving into the Department of Work and Pensions Family Resources Survey 2016/17 published recently. It contains statistics in five broad categories: Income and State Support; Tenure; Disability; Care; and Pensions.

It is the Care statistics which I’d like to highlight today. I’ve written previously on this site about carers, highlighting the prevalence of women doing the majority of care-work around the world.

These recent Family Resources Survey stats show that the largest portion of informal care is for ageing parents. 33% of this care is for parents not living in …

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Water Shortage Predictions are Deeply Disturbing

So why is water shortage predicted by 2050?  Each person on average uses 137 litres per day, and with the current UK population, the water companies supply, daily, at least 1.2 billion litres of water. The water supply is managed by 27 different companies and by law, they must produce a Water Resource Management Plan that forecasts supply and demand and has a plan to describe how they will deliver water to the public for at least the next 25 years. Water companies across the UK collect, treat and pump water to users.

The water companies need to curb water leaks and of the 9,500 billion litres of freshwater extracted in 2016 (in England), three billion litres a day was lost through leaks from pipes, (although this represents levels down by a third since the peaking in 1994/95). The water that leaking through pipes is equivalent to about a fifth of the water in the system and is equivalent to the amount of water used by more than 20 million people on an average day. Households also waste vast amounts of water. In total, a third of water taken from the natural environment is wasted through leaks, treatment losses, and in the home.

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A long read for a Wednesday lunchtime: Tim Farron on Vince, Vulcans, the centre ground and “identity politics”

A couple of years ago, Tim Farron’s often powerful speeches excited and enthused Liberal Democrats and beyond as membership more than doubled in his two years as leader. Too often these days his remarks or his actions cause anger and anxiety. I know that when I see the word Farron on Twitter, I’m thinking “Oh no, what’s he done now.”  Don’t get me wrong, given the same choice I had in 2015, I’d vote for him again. However, in his quest to become leader and president before that, he went out of his way to build alliances with certain groupings in the party. It’s fair to say that some of those people feel intensely let down by certain of his pronouncements. They bear the scars of defending him in the face of some pretty hostile stuff from within and outwith the party. He shouldn’t underestimate what people went through showing loyalty to him.

To them, it feels like Tim is throwing a flame thrower at the bridges. On the other hand, Tim doesn’t seem to understand why they’re so upset. The way he sees it, he’s not picking on one group of people because he thinks we’re all sinners. Having spent a lot of time amongst evangelical Christians in my teens, I strongly suspect my registry office do 30 years ago doesn’t quite fulfil their standard of marriage.

I don’t actually care whether he thinks certain bits of my life are sinful or not and it makes no difference to how he treats me. We’ve worked perfectly well together in the past and I’m sure we will do so again. The big thing is, though, that you don’t tend to get beaten up for having a registry office do. You are more likely to be the victim of a hate crime if you are LGBT. That’s where his comments on these issues can cause actual harm to actual people. It legitimises those who would undermine just and equal treatment of LGBT+ people. I think that Tim needs to understand that. 

On Monday night Twitter started to get a bit unsettled again. This time it was his comments on “identity politics” at an Oxford Union speech that caused some fairly widespread consternation amongst Lib Dems and others.

The term “identity politics” is generally used as a derogatory term by those on the alt-right about any marginalised group who are fighting against discrimination. And they don’t just do it for themselves, they show solidarity with others who are marginalised, too. Jennie Rigg explores the concept here.

If you point out the gender pay gap, or that bisexuals routinely have horrendous mental health, or that black women are held to impossible standards of behaviour that white women aren’t, or that 45% of trans youth have attempted suicide, as sure as eggs is eggs you’ll get some white guy moaning at you about identity politics, and how we should practise “equalism, not feminism”, and how we’re all equal anyway these days now.

When people use the phrase “identity politics” they are generally saying that all those marginalised groups should just stop fighting for fair treatment and leave all the power to the white men where they think it belongs. It was surprising to hear Tim, who has stood up for some of the most marginalised groups in our society, echo this sort of language. 

I thought the only fair way to judge it was to look at the whole speech in context and I’m grateful to Tim for kindly sending me a copy. The stuff that’s caused the controversy is not even the main subject of the speech, which is about whether the centre ground of politics is a myth and exploring the common principles that tie it together and looking at the prospects of a new party.

For me, that section just doesn’t fit in. Apart from anything else the sort of people who need to work together or be appealed to are the sort of people who are generally reasonably fair minded people who understand  the discrimination women, LGBT folk, disabled people and  people of colour face – and the intersectionality between those groups – or if they don’t, they are more likely to  be persuaded by evidence. How much better would it have been to say: “We’re seeing attacks on different groups of people from the likes of Trump and the right. We need to make sure that the equal rights and legal protections that have been so hard won are not compromised in any way.” The far left and far right don’t get this stuff at all.  They are more interested in their own brand of revolution. 

There are a few interesting observations on modern politics and some uncomfortable ideas in the speech, but I’ll let you find them for yourselves. Let us know what you think (politely) in the comments.

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The trouble with World Trade Organisation (WTO)

With Americas’ announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminium, there are fears of a global trade war. If a trade war starts is WTO strong enough to intervene and stop it?

Over the last decade, numerous stalled negotiations have beset WTO credibility. The Ministerial Conference in Kenya in 2015 for the first time failed to support the Doha mandate. An ineffectual WTO will hurt everyone, but the most significant impact will be felt by the poor. In 2010 the Millennium Development Goals achieved one of its objectives, and that was to cut extreme poverty by half. Achieving this objective was aided by economic growth in poorer countries that took advantage of low tariffs and open markets where WTO played an essential role in overseeing trade rules are appropriately negotiated, implemented and monitored.

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