This I am writing just before the Lib Dem conference gets started in Brighton. Events will take their course, and I do not know where the Lib Dems will end up by next Thursday. But I for one am feeling rattled already.
The Liberal Democrats have never been seriously divided over Europe before. Whilst Labour and the Tories tear themselves apart, the Liberal Democrats have been left sitting pretty, even though the electorate have been largely unsympathetic to our policy. Never mind, we reassure ourselves, the electorate don’t care about Europe anyway. To a large extent that is true, but it would obviously be better if they positively supported our policy.
Now all of a sudden, the most pro-European party may well inadvertently find itself supporting policies that lead the country out of the EU. How did it come to this?
The way in which the Lib Dems choose whether to support referenda or not is certainly something that I find confusing. We could have had a radical coalition in Scotland with the SNP, introducing the Local Income Tax, opposing the replacement of Trident and introducing radical Green taxes.
All that was thrown away because the party did not want a referendum on Scottish independence, which we were told would create uncertainty that would damage the Scottish economy. Now we are told that we support a referendum on whether or not to stay in the EU. What effect on the uncertainty of the outcome would that have on the economy?
Quite a bit more I would have thought!