Tag Archives: 2024 election

Paul Walter

70 years of data suggest the Conservatives will suffer a big defeat at the next election’

By Paul Walter | Tue 1st November 2022 - 12:25 pm

Over on The Conversation, Professor Paul Whiteley has written a piece entitled: “70 years of data suggest the Conservatives will suffer a big defeat at the next election – here’s how I worked it out“.

Professor Whiteley goes back to 1945 and looks at polling for the Conservatives taken 19 months before each general election, compared to the seats they won at the subsequent election.

The result is a remarkable correlation, with exceptions for a couple of occasions.

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Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged | 13 Comments
Simon McGrath

Could you be the PPC to win England’s Number 1 target seat?

By Simon McGrath | Sat 5th June 2021 - 7:39 am

Wimbledon is the Party’s closest target seat in England , with a Tory majority of just 628 and the Merton Party are now looking for a Prospective Parliamentary Candidate to win it at the next General Election. It needs a swing of just 0.6% to turn Wimbledon orange.

Could you be the candidate that turns another London constituency orange?

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Posted in Op-eds | 13 Comments
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Recent Comments

  • David Evans
    Paul is absolutely right in his last too posts. While some local parties did not grow in that period, a much larger number grew steadily and became a real thri...
  • Kyle Harrison
    Even if the Lib Dems are on 10% of the vote they can still make major gains from the Tories. That's how the FPTP system can work. You don't need loads of extra ...
  • Ruth Bright
    matt - so sorry to hear this, thank you for sharing this with us...
  • Anthony Acton
    Comparing Labour's list of "non-battleground" seats - which includes with a few exceptions all our target seats - with our list of PPCs already selected it's c...
  • Jenny Barnes
    "we will need gas and oil l[for] essential ingredients in hundreds[of] every day items" It's not entirely true. one could generate pretty much any required ...