Tag Archives: recession

Tories’ double whammy tax bombshell

I leave the country for just three days, and come back to find that, in my absence, the Tories have fallen to bits over tax. I must try this going away lark again, some time. (What do you mean, post hoc ergo propter hoc?)

Of course, it’s possible to claim it’s all a storm in a teacup: that (i) George Osborne’s announcement that the Tories will go into the next election promising to raise the top rate of tax, and (ii) Ken Clarke’s declaration that their inheritance tax cut for the rich was an “aspiration”, are merely a …

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CommentIsLinked@LDV: Vince Cable – Keep an eye on the dapper, shy man at the back

With apologies for missing this yesterday – that’ll teach me not to pay my daily homage to that fount of reactionary, fact-free unpleasantness, the Daily Mail website – but the Lib Dems’ deputy leader Vince Cable was performing the remarkable feat of inserting some common sense perspective into the paper, writing about the growing importance of China to the world’s financial affairs. Here’s an excerpt:

China now has the second biggest economy in the world, based on purchasing power, and India the fourth (Britain is battling it out for sixth place with France). This new industrial revolution is not a pretty

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Financial Times: if only the Tories could be more like the Lib Dems

I paraphrase, of course, but only very slightly… Here’s what the Pink ‘Un‘s editorial has to say about the Tories’ response to the current financial crisis:

It is a cliché to say that Britain’s Conservative party has no policies. It is also untrue; the Tories have views on issues as diverse as why a bottlenose whale starved to death in the Thames and the rate at which British museums buy new pieces for their collections. They have a complex foreign policy of alternately hissing at the work of the European Union and forlornly reaching for the hem of Barack

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Vince warns against inflationary boom following recessionary bust

Today’s Financial Times notes soothsayer and Deputy Lib Dem leader Vince Cable’s latest economic warning:

Vince Cable called the recession before it hit but now the Liberal Democrat has another worry preying on his mind: that Britain might find itself emerging quickly from the crisis and straight into a new era of rising inflation. On the day the Bank of England announced plans to pump £75bn into the economy, Mr Cable warned that this expansion could fuel a return to “old-style boom and bust” unless it were handled with extreme caution.

The Lib Dem Treasury spokesman is not known for his

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Opinion: Safe as houses

I agree with Vince Cable MP that cuts in interest rates have reached their limit and that we now need different policies to stimulate the economy .

Despite general support for Keynesian economics (cf the Paradox of Thrift), Vince spoke out in favour of the virtue of saving and pointed out that there are 7 times more savers than mortgage borrowers who are being penalised under the present climate.

The global recession was first brought about by the collapse of the sub-prime housing market in the US. Hence it is back to the US that I …

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CommentIsLinked@LDV: Vince Cable – Let’s make a virtue out of thrift again

Over at the Mail on Sunday, Lib Dem deputy leader Vince Cable ponders the question he is asked every day: why are profligate borrowers being rewarded by lower interest rates while thrifty savers suffer? Here’s an excerpt:

Interest rate cuts were unavoidable, though they have reached their limit and other policies are now more important – especially getting credit flowing to sound companies. Of course, it is necessary for the economy that people should spend, sensibly, since this also creates production and employment for others. There is a danger that fear is leading many people, and companies, to hoard excessive cash

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Opinion: The only way to solve the credit crisis is to fully nationalise Lloyds, HBOS and RBS

Everyone is blaming greedy bankers for the credit crunch – unless they’re Tories, in which case they’re pinning all the blame on the Government. But who is really to blame? And more important, what can be done about it?

I decided to do some research on this and I have come to the conclusion that investment bankers, although greedy and irresponsible, are not at the root of the crisis. That particular honour in fact goes to one man who has barely got a mention in the debate so far: Bill Clinton. Allow me to explain.

In 1933, the US Government, …

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CommentIsLinked@LDV: Vince Cable – Bewildered for now, but there’s anger to come

Over at the Daily Mail, Lib Dem deputy leader and shadow chancellor Vince Cable writes about the ‘financial aristocracy’ of Sir James Crosby (‘affable, very bright and self-confident’) and Glen Moreno (‘a Gold Card member of Tax Dodgers Anonymous’). Here’s an excerpt:

Surely, now that the Government has taken over and rescued several big banks using taxpayers’ money, they must be run in the public interest, not as bolt holes for the financial aristocracy. By contrast, I see more and more ordinary people being ground down by the recession and by the banks. I was visited this week by a lady

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CommentIsLinked@LDV: Tim Leunig – Co-ordinated inflation could bail us all out

Over at the Financial Times, Tim Leunig – occasional contributor to LDV, and reader in economics at the London School of Economics – considers the unusual financial origins of the current recession. Here’s an excerpt:

The global economy would benefit from a pre-announced, temporary, globally co-ordinated bout of moderate inflation. Since it takes about two years for central-bank policy fully to influence inflation, a sensible policy would be to target 4 per cent inflation for the five years from 2011, followed by 2 per cent thereafter. … An increase in inflation by an extra 2 percentage points for a period

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NEW POLL: what should be done about bankers’ bonuses?

One thing you absolutely cannot accuse the Lib Dem leadership of – going soft on the pay bonuses for executives at those banks which have been re-capitalised by the government. Here’s Vince Cable, Lib Dem deputy leader:

The Government must freeze all bonus payments for employees of semi-nationalised banks and ensure that the pay details of those earning over £100,000 a year are published.”

And Nick Clegg has also strongly criticised Labour for not taking a tough line, instead suggesting bankers ‘ask themselves whether accepting these payments is the right thing to do’, and setting up a review:

You don’t need a review

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Millennium’s Credit Crunch Diary… January: So is it our Winter of Discontent now?

January was a GOOD NEWS / BAD NEWS / MORE BAD NEWS kind of a month.

The GOOD news was that no one shot new President Barry O at his inauguration (unless you count the Chief Justice helping him shoot himself in the foot); the BAD news, dominating the first half of the month, was the hand-grenade of heavy-handed retaliation that Israel chose to lob though the window of opportunity presented while the Monkey-in-Chief was still in the Oval Office; the MORE BAD news was the continuing financial apocalypse, now officially a recession. (Like we didn’t know!)

Economic crisis, businesses failing, …

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Lib Dem Scottish and London budget news

Okay, okay I admit it – that title isn’t likely to entice in hordes of readers. But it is kinda important, so read on…

In Scotland:

The SNP will be able to pass its budget, second time around, thanks to the support of the Lib Dems. As the BBC reports:

In return for the party’s backing, ministers have agreed to take forward a strategy for boosting the economy. … The agreement was reached after Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens combined to vote down the budget in parliament last week, saying it would fail to help the Scottish economy through the

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And in non-snow related Parliamentary news …

As the whole of the south-east (y’know the bit the media lives in) Britain is brought to a grinding halt by the descent of some iced preciptation, rumour had it that the House of Parliament had also shut down for the day. And just think what chaos might have ensued then!

Fortunately, reports of its dearth proved to be exaggerated, and so today’s Lib Dem opposition day has proceeded as planned (though I concede the possibility it might have been slightly overshadowed by metereological events on the news):

(1) Government capital expenditure during the recession; (2) Standards of conduct in

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Opinion: Angry Union Men – whose fault are the Lincolnshire strikes?

As Britain stares down a 1970s-style Spring of Discontent, with the Credit Crunch now being supplemented by industrial strife and wildcat strikes, who is to blame for the crisis on the Humber, and how can it be resolved?

First of all, these workers have every right to feel angry. We all do. Like the rest of the country, they were told that ‘Things Can Only Get Better’, they were even promised ‘British Jobs for British Workers’, and yet here they are again, back to picketing and strikes. Now, that isn’t to say that companies like Total shouldn’t be able …

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Clegg set to spell out Lib Dem post-election demands

There’s a rather remarkable feature in today’s Independent – a fair and balanced feature article highlighting Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg’s town hall tours. The first part focuses on what Nick’s learned from the process, and how he feels these Q&As have helped keep him grounded as leader:

The public meetings have convinced him that all politics is personal as well as local; people want to know what it will do for them. He is straight, not flashy, very good at connecting with people, and genuinely enjoys the town-hall circuit. “It’s good to know what people are thinking; sometimes you see

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Clegg condemns Brown’s ‘British jobs for British workers’ dog-whistle

As wildcat strikers adopt Gordon Brown’s dog-whistle slogan of ‘British jobs for British workers’, the Lib Dem leadership has made clear that it sees no point in getting in to “a blame game” with other European workers.

Vince Cable, the party’s deputy leader, commented at the weekend:

We’ve got to be very careful – on the one hand we’ve got to listen to workers who are angry, we need to help them to find some way forward. But it would be very, very dangerous and foolish to fall into this beggar my neighbour game with people in one country

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A look back at the polls: January ’09

We tend not to be too poll-obsessed here at LDV – of course we look at them, as do all other politico-geeks, but viewed in isolation no one poll will tell you very much beyond what you want to read into it. Looked at over a reasonable time-span and, if there are enough polls, you can see some trends.

Here, in chronological order, are the results of the eight polls published in January:

Tories 41%, Labour 34%, Lib Dems 15% – YouGov/The Sun (9 Jan)
Tories 43%, Labour 33%, Lib Dems 15% – Populus/The Times

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What sort of recession is this anyway? A view from Southend

Mark Pack asked this very question – What sort of recession is this anyway? – on LDV the other day. Yesterday, the IMF offered a top down view which is frankly frightening.

My political activity began in the economic chaos of the early Thatcher years and I live in fear of a return to the levels of unemployment of the 1980s. How does it look from Southend?

Immediately after selection as Liberal Democrat candidates for the two Southend consituencies, Graham Longley and I decided to find out for ourselves. We used the party’s small business survey as a basis …

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Opinion: Time for outdated economics to be put to bed

I have for a long time been a strong critic of modern socialists. Partly because I am a strong critic of socialism, but primarily because they are so out of sync with the modern world. When the red flag was first raised in the Merthyr uprising, it was a logical response to the appalling conditions imposed upon the world’s first industrial workers.

But now, a century and a half on, we are challenging the majority of councillors and political activists in Merthyr who still hark for their fabled socialist solution. Whilst it may have helped in the nineteenth century, socialism …

Posted in Op-eds and Wales | Also tagged and | 11 Comments

Recession, recession, everywhere?

David Smith’s column in today’s Sunday Times caught my eye in part because of my recent experiences with suppliers the party uses. He wrote:

Something odd is happening. Recessions are grim but you expect compensations such as quiet roads, empty trains and helpful shop assistants.

This may be a London thing, but to me roads are busier and on train and Tube journeys I get closer to fellow passengers than is comfortable. As for shops, maybe the retail trade is too miserable, though it is common to find that, when you are ready to buy, the item is not in stock.

In …

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Another day, another survey showing Vince Cable to be the British Obama*

In fact, this one came yesterday and we at LDV missed it. But frankly it’s becoming almost passé to note that the Lib Dems’ shadow chancellor is more trusted than any other politician to sort out the current financial crisis. Still it’d be a shame not to record the moment, as measured by a ComRes survey of 220 business leaders for the Independent:

Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman, who predicted that the housing and personal debt bubble would burst, enjoys more trust in the business world than Mr Brown, David Cameron, the Chancellor Alistair Darling and his Tory

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UK officially in recession

We can stop using caveat-heavy phrases such as ‘the looming recession’ – it’s now officially here, as the BBC reports:

The UK is officially in recession for the first time since the early 1990s, government figures have confirmed.

Gross domestic product fell by 1.5% in 2008’s final quarter, following on from a 0.6% contraction in the previous three months.

That means that the widely accepted definition of a recession – two consecutive quarters of falling economic growth – has been met.

It also represents the biggest quarter-on-quarter decline since 1980.

Still, look on the bright side … it’s Friday.

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PMQs: Nick tackles Gordon on the bank bail-out

After last week’s pretty subdued start to the new Parliamentary term at Prime Minister’s Questions, there was a return to the more boisterous rough ‘n’ tumble which passes for debate in this farcical weekly charade in the interests of holding the Government publicly to account.

As is well-established, the actual content of PMQs is pretty irrelevant (which is just as well, because it’s pretty non-existent) – for the media and the Westminster village performance is all. And measured by that criterion, I thought all three party leaders could take some pleasure in how they did.

As recession reality begins to hit home, the Government’s response to it was, unsurprisingly, the dominant theme. Gordon Brown tried to slam home two messages: that Labour is doing all it can; and that the Tories would do nothing. And for once he managed to upstage Mr Cameron with a couple of slick, well-delivered one-liners:

The one thing that President Obama did not say in his speech yesterday was, “Fellow Americans, let’s do nothing.”

and, gesturing to Ken Clarke, restored to the Tory front-bench:

has the benefit now of a new shadow shadow Chancellor to help him on his way

Though that did set up Mr Cameron’s best-scripted line of the day: “The difference between this former Chancellor and that former Chancellor is that this one left a golden legacy and that one wrecked it.”

But, for me, the Prime Minister’s most impressive answer was not the rehearsed bon mots, but his graceful acknowledgement that the Government’s recapitalisation of the banks is in trouble, but that it was the best, the only, policy on the table, and it was (eventually) supported (half-heartedly) by the Tories themselves:

I was very grateful for the support that the Opposition party gave to the recapitalisation of the banks three months ago. I suppose that I should not be surprised that the minute there is a difficulty, it withdraws its support from the right proposal. The recapitalisation of the banks was the right thing to do. The right hon. Gentleman has no other policy that would replace that policy.

To my ears, the phraseology sounded very Tony Blair. Why? Because its more-in-sorrow-than-in-anger tone is just the right way to deflate Mr Cameron’s tendency towards shrill point-scoring. It also has the merit of being the truth, a powerful weapon which Mr Brown all too often neglects.

In his two allotted questions, Nick Clegg pressed two issues – first, that the Government’s response is too ambiguous to work, and secondly that it’s time for full, temporary nationalisation of the weakest banks.

To be honest, I didn’t think this was one of Nick’s best days at PMQs (although generally I think he’s a strong performer there, unfairly maligned by media hacks). To me, his questions seemed a little vague, with no examples to back them up. However, I’ve heard Nick’s sound-bite-ettes used on a number of news programmes this afternoon, while the PMQs questions he asks which I do like seem to sink without trace as far as the media’s concerned. And though I suspect this says at least as much about the poor quality of political reporting as it does about my judgement, I’m happy to concede that, in this instance at least, what matters is what works.

You can catch up with the video of PMQs here via the BBC website, the audio here via the Guardian, or read the Hansard transcript of Nick’s exchanges below:

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CommentIsLinked@LDV: Vince Cable – A desperate attempt to revive a corpse

Over at The Times, Lib Dem deputy leader Vince Cable explains that the second bailout shows that the Labour Government has acted as imprudently as the banks themselves. You can read it in full here – and I recommend that you do – but here’s an excerpt in case you need any further tantalising:

It is clear that the conditions set by the Government over the original capitalisation was a sham. No effective monitoring and controls were put in place to ensure that the money went where it was intended. The banks do not even seem to have been required

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Opinion: I’m alright – but is Britain?

This week’s Times/Populus opinion poll suggested that the meltdown boost for Gordon Brown’s personal rating has faded. But there is rather more to these latest data than simply a restoration of the Conservatives’ double-digit lead.

An interesting syndrome has come to light, and I am dubbing it ‘this depression is going to be very bad for Britain – but I’ll survive’. There is now what the researchers call a gap between personal optimism and public pessimism.

What can this mean?

It could mean any number of things: far too many people still just carrying on carrying on. Figures from elsewhere showing those …

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Opinion: Are we really going to learn anything at all from this mess?

The problems – however astonishing and severe – are symptoms of the financial sector alone.”
Financial Times leader, 28.12.08

At the moment I would hazard a guess that we are about one-fifth of the way through the current crisis of Zeitgeist. I read last week, on one of the more respectable financial websites, that, with so many companies financially weak, 2009 would see ‘a bonanza for mergers and acquisitions’. For the nth time, a member of the Cabinet parroted that “global problems require global solutions”. Two UK banks seemed unwilling to take the hit for £32 billion worth of losses in 2008: Alistair Darling thought they should absorb them from ample existing capitalisation, but the bankers failed to see why they couldn’t have more taxpayers’ money instead.

The day before, I listened to six property experts on BBC Radio 4 debating how to get the housing market moving again by loosening credit. Later on BBC News I heard Gordon Brown reaffirming his desire that nobody should be repossessed as a result of “overstretched” borrowing.

Everything you’ve read in inverted commas so far in this Opinion piece is about as wrong as wrong could be.

Our problems did not emanate from some oddly No-mates organic thing called ‘the financial sector alone’. They came from bankers forcing debt onto people who had in turn decided to suspend disbelief. And they, in turn, are the products of a dumbed-down Western culture fixated by material well-being, targets, the Office, bling and GDP.

But, apart from the more gullible suckers, long before there was any sub-prime debt (surely the euphemism of the Millennium) most articulate western consumers had accepted that dealing with any commercial manufacturing or service-providing concern of any size involves ignoring all the lies, noting the lack of ethics, and being prepared to threaten in order to get even minimal satisfaction or after-sales service.

Enormous global combines without a clear culture have exacerbated the problem by basing their business models solely on production output and the whims of remote shareholders. In that context, ethics are for wimps – and if the only answer to large-scale failure is yet more M&A activity to satiate even greedier shareholders, then I have news for us all: it can only make things worse. The bigger an organisation gets, the more remote the customer becomes.

Global problems most emphatically do not require global solutions: we’ve tried that to the current tune of $8.5 trillion, and it’s made no impact at all. What we need is to question the whole validity of globalism in an environmentally threatened world, and reject the Friedman/Levitt drivel that started all this nonsense in the first place.

We do not need to bail out any more bankers: we need to remain calm and tell the banks ‘no more bailouts until you start lending to sound young businesses’.

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  • AM
    Wholeheartedly agree. It has been refreshing to hear Liberal Democrat leadership and parliamentarians taking a strong and unapologetic stand that is unequivocal...
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    It is such sad news. I was lucky to get to know Micheal over the last few years (working on a book project for the John Stuart Mill Institute). He reaffirmed fo...
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    Very sad news. I remember many a lively evening of erudite discussion in Leeds - Michael was a true intellect - and a genuinely warm soul. My condolences to his...
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    This is bang on. What is the point of a liberal party that won't stand up for rights, especially when both government and opposition want to make hay out of div...