With the question of how well Lord Ashcroft’s marginal seats campaign for the Conservatives really is doing back in the news, now seems a good time to remind people of this which I wrote in 2007:
How good is Ashcroft?
Well, here’s his own account of his record supporting target seats at the 2005 general election:
The national swing from Labour to Conservatives was 3.2 per cent, yet the swing in the seats which we supported was 3.8 per cent.
Dirty Politics, Dirty Times by Michael Ashcroft, p.296You read that right: by his own admission, all his expertise and money achieved was a paltry o.6 per cent extra swing.
Given the campaign I ran at the general election secured a Labour to Liberal Democrats swing that was 9.8 points above the national average, I guess that makes me 16.3 times better than Lord Ashcroft.
Do drop me a line Michael; my consultancy rates would be very competitive…
I’m sure he’s got better since, but even so the idea that he’s a campaigning mastermind is by no means an open and shut case. A campaigning mastermind, after all, would have seen the tax problem coming.
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3 Comments
It remains to be seen, but another factor to take into consideration is the fact that the Tories are targeting a LOT more seats in 2010 as opposed to 2005.
As a Hendon constituent, where Andrew Dismal has less than a 3,000 majority, I’ve been surprised by the lack of Tory literature to appear on my doormat. In fact, I haven’t seen anything in over a year. I appreciate that Hendon may be regarded as a seat that might fall on a national swing but that sounds like a big gamble to me given Dismal’s personal vote.
Hopefully the Tories still won’t have perfected marginal seat campaigns to the extent we have.
Mark, did anyone do any research on Anthony Jacob’s target seat operation in 1997 (smiley here if I could do one)
B