With just over 12 hours until polls open, it’s time to launch the LDV election prediction competition to our readers: enough of the speculating it’s time to pin your colours to the mast. What do you think will happen in the 2010 general election on 6th May?
All you have to do to be crowned LDV’s 2010 soothsayer is give your answers to the following four questions:
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1. What will be the shares of the popular UK vote recorded by the three main parties in the general election?
2. How many Lib Dem MPs will be elected?
3. Who will be Prime Minister at 5pm on Friday, 7th May?
4. What will the percentage turnout be?
Feel free to show your working in the comments thread, but please do mark your answers clearly as per my example prediction in the first comment.
We will be using the figures from the BBC website. In the event of any dispute, the LDV editorial collective’s verdict will be final!
Best of luck to all …
NB: any candidates/agents/et al wanting to join in but not wanting publicly to publish a prediction, you do not have to give your real name (in fact we recommend you don’t if you think it might be used against you!) – but please do provide a valid email address. This will not be published, but no entry without a valid email address will be eligible to win.
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46 Comments
Example only:
1. Con 36%, Lab 27%, Lib Dem 27%
2. 84 Lib Dem MPs
3. 72% turnout
4. David Cameron
1. Con 37 / Lab 29 / LD 26
2. 85
3. Gordon Brown at 5pm, while negotiations take place. I expect Cameron to lead a minority government the way things are headed
4. Dunno, 2005 figures + 4%
1. Con 36%, Lab 28%, Lib Dem 27%
2. 82 Lib Dem MPs
3. 69% turnout
4. Gordon Brown
I have come up with my prediction my reasoning is here; Bracknell Blog
Tories: 37% ,Labour: 27% ,Lib Dems: 26% ,Others: 10%
2. 92 Lib Dem MPs
3. 72% turnout
4. David Cameron
1. What will be the shares of the popular UK vote recorded by the three main parties in the general election?
Con 35% Lab 28% L/D 25%
2. How many Lib Dem MPs will be elected?
72
3. Who will be Prime Minister at 5pm on Friday, 7th May?
David Cameron
4. What will the percentage turnout be?
68%
Con 35% Lib Dem 28% Lab 27%
Lib Dem MP’s 89
David Cameron with Unionist support still a minority government – will dare the opposition to vote him down a la Harper.
72%
1. Con 37% Lab 28% Lib Dem 25.5% Others 9.5%
2. 78
3. David Cameron
4. 68.6%
1. Con 29% (196) Lab 24% (211) Lib 37% (214) Oth 10% (29) (BBC Estimates)
2. 214 Seats
3. Brown since it would be pretty mean to kick him out after a long night like that. Eventually Clegg in some
sort of Lib led coalition?
4. 75% (Hopeful much? Counting on the ‘non-voter’ surge for Libs!)
1. Con 34, Lab 27, LD 30.
2. 115-125.
3. David Cameron.
4. 70-73%.
1 con 35% lab 27% libdem 31% others 7%
2 115 seats
3 gordon B
4 73%
1. What will be the shares of the popular UK vote recorded by the three main parties in the general election?
Con 34% LD 30% Lab 27%
2. How many Lib Dem MPs will be elected?
124
3. Who will be Prime Minister at 5pm on Friday, 7th May?
Gordon Brown
Negotiations will be ongoing to determine a new government; I expect Nick Clegg to be Deputy and Acting PM while a Labour leadership election is conducted for the new PM.
4. What will the percentage turnout be?
74.5%
1. Con 36.4%, LD 28.2%, Lab 26.5%
2. 113 LD MPs (have some faith in targeting!)
3. Brown still clinging on (but not for much longer)
4. 72%
Con 34 Lab 29 LD 24 Oth 13
69
Brown
69
1. Con 36%, Lab 29%, Lib 25%
2. 82
3. David Cameron
4. 69.5%
OK getting a bit boring now – how about what Nick Clegg will be saying on the 7th!
“yesterday you elected a parliament to represent you, that was the point of that exercise in democracy – now it is up to parliament to agree an executive, an administration able to represent a majority of parliament or one to be held to account by a majority. There is nothing to fear from such democracy. Today democracy stands tall”!
How about :
“Following the shock Lib Dem gains in Kirkcaldy and Witney, I am pleased to step in at Number 10″
1. 37/26/28 Con/Lab/Lib
2. 100 Lib Dem MPs
3. Brown will be the PM
4. 65% turnout
1) 36.2% C, 28.2% L, 26.8% LD
2) 75 MPs
3) Gordon Brown (hung parliament negotiations underway)
4)67.3%
1. Con 36%, LD 28%, Lab 27%
2. 98
3. David Cameron
4. 69%
1. Con 36%, Lab 28%, Lib Dem 28%
2. 90 Lib Dem MPs
3. Gordon Brown
4. 69.5% turnout
1. Con 32, LD 30, Lab 28
2. 105
3. Nobody, it will still be under negotiation
4. 73
1. Con 36 Lab 26 LD 28
2 94 LD MPs.
3 Brown will still be PM over the weekend but will resign on the Monday when David Cameron will form a minority government.
4 67%.
1. Con 35, Lab 28, LD 28 (see, I’m being nice ot YouGov!)
2. 87 LD MPs
3. Gordon Brown. (Cameron will try to cobble together a deal with the DUP and Nigel Fagage, and will sit and wait for his man from Thirsk & Malton. However, Brown will make a vague promise of a referendum on PR which will be just enough to stop the Lib Dems voting his government out. The most immediate issue will be finding a new Speaker.)
4. 69%
1. Con 37% Lab 29%, Lib Dem 27%
2. 83
3. Gordon Brown – at least until Monday
4.70.2%
…….but I still hope its better than that.
1. Con 36.5% Lab 28% LD 25.5 %
2. 77
3. David Cameron
4. 69%
Here’s hoping that we do better, and that DC is never PM….
I should add that I think we will be no more than 3,000 votes behind the winning candidate in approx. another 45 seats.
1. Con 38% Lab 28% LD 26%
2. 72
3. Brown
4. 70%
1. Con 37%, Lab 29.1%, Lib Dem 32.9%
2. 104 Lib Dem MPs, 274 Tories, 247 Labour, 25 other
3. Gordon Brown because he is the PM until he resigns, but negotiations begin with Lib Dems and Brown may not be there long.
4. 77% turnout
Merely a scientific wild-ass guess
1. Con 35.1%, Lib 33.6% Lab 19.9%
2. Con 303, Lib 160, Lab 158 – with the Lib Dems thus becoming the official second party.
3. David Cameron – and like JohnM said, I fully expect him to at least try to govern like Canada’s Harper.
4. 79% turnout.
OMG we are a gloomy bunch arent we ? I woke up wishing my prediction had been more optimistic, equal 1st with the Tories or something close but having a 2nd go seems like cheating.
1. Con 35.5%, Lab 24.5%, Lib Dem 27.5%
2. 110 Lib Dem MPs (189 LAB and 320 TORY)
3. 68% turnout
4. David Cameron
1. Con 35.2%, Lab 23.4%, LD 28.9%
2. 104 Lib Dem MPs
3. Ed Balls
4. 72% turnout
At 5pm on Friday, with Parliament nicely hung, Nick will ring Gordon (or could it be Dave?) and ask “what’s the deal then?” And Dave (or was it Gordon?) will say “What, do you really think I want to be in charge of this national disaster? Why don’t you try the other guy?”
1 Con 35% Lab 29% Lib Dem 28%
2 81 Lib Dem MPs
3 Brown holding on until weekend – then Cameron with Unionist support minority government
4 71.5% Turnout
Lib Dem’s 25-28%, 80 – 90 seats, a bit better than crude predictions based on UNS, and on a par with what I expected before the campaign began. Not quite enough yet to thoroughly stalemate parliament (probably 120 seats with gains booked evenly from red and blue) and hence break the mold. I hope for as high a percentage share for the Lib Dems as possible, as this will mean that more seats are in our range the next time around. If we should fail to achieve 75, I would be thoroughly disappointed, whilst 80 – 90 would certainly be worth a glass of champagne, 30% and 100+ would be worth the rest of the bottle!
Turnout: about 70%
Prime Minister: Brown, until he resigns within hours or days, depending on how badly Labour have fared. Very, very probably Cameron afterwards with a minority administration.
Much, much less likely Brown, if the public had some sort of mass delusion and Labour were to retain more seats than the Conservatives. Faint chance of Clegg in a balanced Parliament, with Darling as deputy, possibly vice versa, although both would be wary of propping up someone who wasn’t elected in the public’s mind as PM. Perhaps Harman would replace Brown, viewed initially as caretaker, but I think people would find her impossible to shift afterwards. Possibly Johnson, Benn or a Milliband.
In a way it might be good for the Tories to make large gains, but still fail to command the House, as this would prompt their radical reformation, which they have so far failed to do. Too many haters, climate change deniers and closet Rhodesians.
If Lib Dems were to do particularly well (unlikely now), Labour and Conservatives similar in terms of seats, leaving Parliament stalemated, then I have no real preference as to who were supported, unless it were clear that Labour had lost (i.e. rather fewer than Conservatives), in which case it would have to be Con/Lib, although Cameron has foolishly indicated that he would throw a wobbler in such an instance.
If a genuine coalition government, then imperative to quickly pass a reform bill forcing fixed term parliaments of five years, binding this parliament, to stop the partner from mucking around and calling an early dissolution.
For me what is most important is to promote a Liberal Democratic agenda as strongly as possible: the partner is unimportant, just that it could command public respect.
1. Con 36%, Lab 27%, Lib Dem 26%
2. 85 Lib Dem MPs. Labour on 225 and tories on 311 or so
3. 68.5% turnout
4. Gordon Brown with negotiations taking place.
1. Con 35% Lab 28% Lib Dem 27.5% Others 9.5%
2. 83
3. David Cameron after negotiation
4. 74%
1) Con: 35, Lab: 29, Lib Dem: 27 2) 79 3) Gordon Brown 4) 68%
1.) Con 35.5%, Lib Dem 29.5%, Lab 28.5%
2.) Lib Dem 125 Seats
3.) 74% Vote Turnout
4.) Gordon Brown until a new Government can be formed. Lib Dems to hold the balance of power.
This is my fantasy, er, prediction:
1. Con 33%, Labour 28%, Lib Dem 30%
2. 100 Lib Dem seats
3. 71% turnout
4. Gordon Brown initially
Con 38, Lab 24, LD 29, Others 9
104 Liberal Democrat MPs
73% Turnout
David Cameron
Prediction time:
Turnout….Con: 35, Lab 28, Lib Dem 27, improved showing for Scots Nats who gain 5 seats off Labour.
Lib Dem MPs: 74.
Prime Minister at 5.0pm – Technically, its still Brown, who said it was game up after the loss of Redcar. Cameron says he will lead a minority government but the Queen has yet to call him, Ulsterman say they havent signed a pact, Osborne says oh yes we have, Ulstermen say if you want our votes “things can be different” and what matters is “the change that works for us.”
Turnout: 69 per cent.
Returning Officer at Eastbourne announces recount will take place at 10.0am. Chris Rennard goes on Sky and says “dammit, we needed more postage stamps.”
1. Con 38%, Lab 25%, Lib Dem 28%
– Intuiting the Shy Tory poll bias.
2. 105 Lib Dem MPs
– Because the Lab / Lib swings are being miscalculated hugely by UNS estimates.
3. 73% turnout
–I’ll go with the bookies on this one.
4. David Cameron
A slim Tory majority seems likely, with current numbers.
1. Con 37% Lab 28% Lib Dem 26%
2. 97 Lib Dem MPs
3. 71% turnout
4. Gordon Brown
1 C37 L27LD 27
2 99 seats 4 LD
3 72% Turnout
4 David Cameron=PM
Prediction thread now closed. Good luck everyone – especially those who predicted a good Lib Dem result!