Author Archives: Stephen Tall

Stephen was Editor (and Co-Editor) of Liberal Democrat Voice from 2007 to 2015, and writes at The Collected Stephen Tall. He writes a fortnightly column for ConservativeHome and 'The Underdog' column for Total Politics magazine. He edited the 2013 publication, The Coalition and Beyond: Liberal Reforms for the Decade Ahead, and is a Research Associate for the liberal think-tank CentreForum. He was awarded the inaugural Lib Dem ‘Blogger of the Year’ prize in 2006, was a councillor for eight years in Oxford, including a year as Deputy Lord Mayor, and appears frequently in the media in person, in print and online. Stephen combines his political interests with his professional life as Development Director for the Education Endowment Foundation, though writes here in a personal capacity.
Stephen Tall

Newark by-election: what I told BBC’s Daily Politics

By Stephen Tall | Fri 6th June 2014 - 10:00 pm

imageI got a call from the BBC’s Daily Politics this morning asking if I’d be willing to pitch up this lunchtime to discuss the Lib Dem performance, as the party wasn’t willing to put up anyone official. (Labour didn’t either.) I duly did so and you can see what I said below. If you want to skip Grant Shapps and Roger Helmer, I pop up briefly at the 12 minute mark. As ever, you only really get to string together a couple of sentences: I blogged my fuller views on Newark …

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Posted in Parliamentary by-elections and YouTube | Tagged , and | 106 Comments
Stephen Tall

Newark by-election: Tories win well, Ukip falls short, Labour dips, Lib Dems collapse

By Stephen Tall | Fri 6th June 2014 - 9:05 am

Phot @bbcalexforsyth newark by-electionA lot of politics is about momentum. At the moment it’s the Tories who have it. Not quite the Big Mo, but a Moderate Mo that’s growing.

Here are the results of last night’s Newark by-election:

    Robert Jenrick (Con) 17,431 (45.03%, -8.82%)
    Roger Helmer (UKIP) 10,028 (25.91%, +22.09%)
    Michael Payne (Lab) 6,842 (17.68%, -4.65%)
    Paul Baggaley (Ind) 1,891 (4.89%)
    David Kirwan (Green) 1,057 (2.73%)
    David Watts (LD) 1,004 (2.59%, -17.41%)
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Posted in News and Parliamentary by-elections | Tagged , and | 217 Comments
Stephen Tall

In praise of 5-year fixed-term parliaments

By Stephen Tall | Thu 5th June 2014 - 4:00 pm

Houses of Parliament and Westminster BridgeConventional wisdom is that one area where the Lib Dem influence in Coalition has been weakest is political reform. The party’s “four step” manifesto plan to “hardwire fairness into British society” included the pledge “to clean up politics”. Nick Clegg as Deputy Prime Minister famously promised the “biggest shake-up of our democracy” since 1832. That claim has come to seem hollow since first electoral reform, then later an elected House of Lords and the constituency boundary review, all went down in flames.

Yet one …

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Posted in Op-eds | 32 Comments
Stephen Tall

Was the LibDemVoice poll on Nick Clegg’s leadership a fix? #QTWTAIN

By Stephen Tall | Wed 28th May 2014 - 9:00 pm
Nick Clegg Q&A 8(#QTWTAIN = Question To Which The Answer Is No, an abbreviation made famous by the Independent’s John Rentoul)

I decided weeks ago that, come what may, LibDemVoice needed to carry out a survey of party members immediately after the local and European election results were declared asking what people thought about Nick Clegg’s leadership.

I reckoned the election results wouldn’t be pretty and that there was a good chance the result of our members’ survey could be deeply unhelpful to the leadership. But I thought it important members were given a say sooner rather than later. So, as the Euro results came in, I drafted some questions, circulated them to the team for comment, revised them – and at 1am on Mon 26th May the emails started being sent out.

A handful of people who want Nick Clegg to stay thought I was being reckless and told me so. A handful of people who want Nick Clegg to go thought the survey was a fix to shore up his position and told me so. It was neither.

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Posted in LDV Members poll | 44 Comments
Stephen Tall

Mark Pack’s verdict on those ICM polls: “not sensible figures for anyone to draw a conclusion from”

By Stephen Tall | Wed 28th May 2014 - 9:20 am

Mark PackMy former co-editor here at LibDemVoice, Mark Pack, has been taking a detailed look in his latest Liberal Democrat Newswire at those ICM constituency polls commissioned by Lord Oakeshott. Here’s his take on them:

It’s not only the attempted anonymous funding of the polls that’s questionable. So too is the way they were worded. Even reputable pollsters such as ICM given their clients some discretion over question wording, and in this case it was a matter of misleading by omission rather than an outrageously worded question in its own right.

The

…

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Posted in News | Tagged , and | 32 Comments
Stephen Tall

EXCLUSIVE POLL: 54% of Lib Dem members want Nick Clegg to stay as leader

By Stephen Tall | Tue 27th May 2014 - 4:44 pm

Lib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum  to discover what Lib Dem members think about the performance of the Lib Dems and party leader Nick Clegg at the most recent set of local and European elections. 992 party members responded – thank you – and we’re publishing the full results today.

Here’s the summary – full results below – of what our survey of Lib Dem members thinks:

  • 54% want Nick Clegg to stay as leader; 39% want him to stand down
  • Among the 39% who want Nick Clegg to stand down opinion is divided whether he should stay as Deputy Prime Minister (34%); whether his successor should become Deputy Prime Minister (35%); or whether the Lib Dems should withdraw from Coalition (27%)
  • 51% are satisfied with Nick Clegg’s performance as party leader; 48% are dissatisfied
  • By 81% to 16% Lib Dem members support the Lib Dems being in Coalition with the Conservatives
  • Almost one-half (48%) think the Lib Dems European election campaign “was the right message, but communicated poorly”
  • Tim Farron is the first choice of leader in the event of a vacancy

Personal commentary from Stephen Tall:

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Posted in LDV Members poll | 125 Comments
Stephen Tall

Ouch. My first thoughts on the European election results for the four main parties

By Stephen Tall | Mon 26th May 2014 - 11:55 am

The results are all but in (Scotland will formal declare later today) and the scores on the doors make depressing reading for the Lib Dems – here’s the BBC’s breakdown:

euro elections 2014

Here are 5 quick points:

1) A good night for Ukip

Fair do’s to Farage: he inverted the usual expectations management game by vowing Ukip would top the poll, and they did. Their share of the vote, 27.5%, means they become the first party since 1906 to beat both the Conservatives and Labour. They’ve gained at least 10 MEPs, and may …

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Posted in Op-eds | 62 Comments
Stephen Tall

Special post-election LDV members’ survey now live

By Stephen Tall | Mon 26th May 2014 - 10:34 am

imageThe new LDV members’ survey is now live. So if you are one of the 1,600+ registered members of the Liberal Democrat Voice forum — and any paid-up party member is welcome to join — then you now have the opportunity to make your views known.

This is a brief survey, focused on the performance of the Lib Dems and party leader Nick Clegg at the most recent set of local and European elections. It should take no longer than 5-10 minutes minutes to fill in. All registered members of …

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Posted in LDV Members poll | 25 Comments
Stephen Tall

About that Ukip earthquake… Farage party’s national vote-share DOWN on 2013

By Stephen Tall | Fri 23rd May 2014 - 4:45 pm

The BBC has published its estimate of the national vote-shares for this year’s local elections. They show Labour out in front, on 31%, the Tories just behind on 29% – with Ukip in third place on 17% and the Lib Dems in fourth on 13%. Compared to the 2013 results*, this means Ukip is the only one of the four main parties to have lost votes in the last year.

Here’s the graph showing results over the last four years, 2010-14:

…

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Posted in News | 43 Comments
Stephen Tall

What the Euro polls say: Will Ukip come first? Will the Lib Dems avoid a 5th-placed wipeout?

By Stephen Tall | Thu 22nd May 2014 - 10:00 pm

A staggering 25 opinion polls have been published in May for the European elections. I say staggering because, if past form is any guide, two-thirds of the public won’t turn out to vote today. Nor do many people expect the result today to have much bearing on the general election in a year’s time. Still, here are all 25:

euro polls may 2015

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Posted in News | 32 Comments
Stephen Tall

The two Orange Bookers who’ve won over the Lib Dem membership

By Stephen Tall | Thu 22nd May 2014 - 10:00 am

Orange_BookIt’s 10 years since The Orange Book was published. Edited by David Laws and Paul Marshall it was widely regarded as an attempt by economic liberals within the Lib Dems to wrest back control of the party from social liberals.

Both Laws and Marshall would argue their attempt at ‘reclaiming liberalism’ (the book’s sub-title) was more about re-balancing liberalism as practised by the Lib Dems — that the party had grown intellectually lazy, happiest with simply saying ‘tax more, spend more’ as the answer to every public policy problem without thinking …

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , , , , , , , and | 70 Comments
Stephen Tall

What Lib Dem members think about the way the Coalition is cutting spending to reduce the deficit

By Stephen Tall | Thu 22nd May 2014 - 8:45 am

Cut costsLib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum  to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Over 830 party members responded – thank you – and we’re publishing the full results.

The economy is recovering but cuts to public spending are going to be with us for some time no matter who’s in government. I wanted to test attitudes among Lib Dems to how the cuts are being handled. The questions below mirror those which have been asked by YouGov since summer 2010 (you can access the results here, from page 27). This is the second time we’ve asked these questions, so responses are compared with the previous results (in brackets) from December 2013.

Thinking about the way the government is cutting spending to reduce the government’s deficit, do you think this is…

Good or bad for the economy?

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Posted in LDV Members poll | 12 Comments
Stephen Tall

Strong backing for Steve Webb’s pension reforms: 78% of Lib Dems support abolishing annuity requirement

By Stephen Tall | Wed 21st May 2014 - 4:04 pm

WebbLib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum  to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Over 830 party members responded – thank you – and we’re publishing the full results.

Do you support or oppose abolishing the requirement for people to buy an annuity with their pension fund, and making it easier for pensioners to take part of their pension pot as a lump sum?

    Support – 78%
    Oppose – 9%
    Don’t know – 13%

Steve Webb is …

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Posted in LDV Members poll | 8 Comments
Stephen Tall

MP recall: 73% of Lib Dem members approve of voters’ right to sack their representatives

By Stephen Tall | Wed 21st May 2014 - 10:10 am

Liberal Democrat badge - Some rights reserved by Paul Walter, Newbury, UKLib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum  to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Over 830 party members responded – thank you – and we’re publishing the full results.

73% of Lib Dem members approve of MP recall; 19% disapprove

The government has said that voters should have a means to ‘sack’ MPs who are guilty of ‘serious wrongdoing’. It proposes to allow voters in individual constituencies …

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Posted in LDV Members poll | Tagged , and | 11 Comments
Stephen Tall

Lib Dem MP on post-22 May leadership speculation: “Ashdown would cut my balls off if I criticised Clegg”

By Stephen Tall | Sun 18th May 2014 - 11:45 am

Paddy Ashdown talks on "The global power shift" in Brussels March 1st 2012 - Some rights reserved by PhOtOnQuAnTiQuE Lib Dems are braced for a tricky week. This Thursday will see the first UK-wide election since 2010, with voters choosing who represents them in the European Parliament. Many voters across England will also get to decide who runs their local council.

Votes for the local elections will be counted on that night and throughout Friday. If this year follows the pattern of the previous three years, the Lib Dems could …

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Posted in News | Tagged , , and | 67 Comments
Stephen Tall

Ed Balls is as unpopular as the Conservative Party with Lib Dem members.

By Stephen Tall | Sat 17th May 2014 - 8:00 am

Ed Balls MP, Denton - (Labour Leadership Campaign) - 2010Lib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum  to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. More than 830 party members responded – thank you – and we’re publishing the full results.

95% of Lib Dem members view Ukip unfavourably, compared to 85% for Tories, 71% for Labour and 37% for the Greens

I’m a fan of the polling company ComRes’s ‘Favourability Index’, which asks the public whether they view the …

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Posted in LDV Members poll | 15 Comments
Stephen Tall

WATCH: Nigel Farage comes a cropper at the hands of LBC’s James O’Brien

By Stephen Tall | Fri 16th May 2014 - 1:15 pm

Nigel Farage was interviewed by LBC Radio’s James O’Brien today: it didn’t go well for the Ukip leader. Watch here as he’s asked about the racist comments of elected Ukip representatives, the extremist views of its far-right European allies, its mis-use of dodgy stats to whip-up immigration fears, and its refusal to sign up for an audit of its MEPs’ expenses…

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Posted in YouTube | Tagged , and | 54 Comments
Stephen Tall

Who’s up, who’s down? How party members rate the performances of leading Lib Dems

By Stephen Tall | Fri 16th May 2014 - 8:00 am

Liberal Democrat Conference 2011Lib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum  to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. More than 830 party members responded – thank you – and we’re publishing the full results.

LDV asked: How would you rate the performances of the following leading Liberal Democrats and government ministers?

Full results are published below, but here’s two key lists for those who want to cut to the chase… (with comparison to December 2013 ratings in brackets)

Top 5 Lib Dem performers in the Government:

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Stephen Tall

New ICM poll: Do you want the okay-ish news or the bad news?

By Stephen Tall | Mon 12th May 2014 - 8:40 pm

Let’s start with the okay-ish news… ICM, the ‘gold standard’ pollster, has the Lib Dems at 13% in the Guardian’s latest monthly survey. That wouldn’t usually be much to write home about – it is after all 10% lower than the party scored at the last general election – but after a string of polls showing the Lib Dems in single digits, there will be something of a sigh of relief from Great George Street.

icm poll - may 2014

In fact, there’s a second bit of okay-ish news, which I’ll come …

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Posted in Polls | Tagged and | 49 Comments
Stephen Tall

Airport expansion: 73% of Lib Dem members want to see it – but opinion divided on where it should happen

By Stephen Tall | Sun 11th May 2014 - 10:30 am

Airport terminalLib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum  to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Over 830 party members responded – thank you – and we’re publishing the full results.

37% want London airport expansion; 36% want no-London airport expansion; 21% want no airport expansion

There is currently a discussion about how to expand airport capacity in the UK to meet future demand for air travel. Which one of the following do you think is the best option?

11% – Expand Heathrow airport

16% – Expand one or more of the other existing London airports (e.g. London Gatwick, Luton or Stansted)

10% – Build a new airport in the Thames Estuary to the east of London

36% – Expand other UK airports outside of London/the South East

21% – None of these – I would not like to see any expansion of the UK’s airport capacity

6% – Don’t know

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Posted in LDV Members poll | Tagged , , , , and | 20 Comments
Stephen Tall

In the next month 12 seats will short-list their wannabe Lib Dem MPs

By Stephen Tall | Sat 10th May 2014 - 5:06 pm

Lib Dems winning hereHere’s the full list of selection contests in the coming month available for Lib Dems on the approved parliamentary candidates’ list, together with the closing date for applications.

The following seats have selections in progress and are currently advertising for candidates:

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Posted in Selection news | Tagged | 6 Comments
Stephen Tall

76% of Lib Dem members oppose Government plans to render foreign-born terror suspects ‘stateless’

By Stephen Tall | Sat 10th May 2014 - 2:20 pm

Lib Dem stickersLib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum  to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. More than 830 party members responded – thank you – and we’re publishing the full results.

Three-quarters oppose Theresa May’s plans to render foreign-born terror suspects ‘stateless’

The Government has proposed in its Immigration Bill that the Home Secretary should have the power to revoke the British nationality of those whose presence in the UK are deemed ‘not conducive to the public …

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Posted in LDV Members poll | Tagged , , , and | 8 Comments
Stephen Tall

“Label the behaviour not the person”: why we shouldn’t call Ukip a racist party

By Stephen Tall | Sat 10th May 2014 - 8:15 am

ukip-poster-manchesterFor once I’m going to agree with Nigel Farage. Speaking at a rally this week, he pleaded with the media and public, “from this moment on please do not ever call us a racist party. We are not a racist party.”

As rallying cries go, it’s not the most ambitious. But, then, Ukip’s not an ambitious party. As Farage himself happily boasts, it has just two policies: withdrawal from the EU and bringing back grammar schools. It doesn’t really matter, though. Ukip is defined by what it’s against, not …

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , , , and | 107 Comments
Stephen Tall

Battle of the Election Videos: Lib Dems’ “Incredible Silent Man” v. “Labour’s Un-credible Shrinking Man”

By Stephen Tall | Thu 8th May 2014 - 4:20 pm

So Labour’s party election broadcast then… Titled The Un-credible Shrinking Man it mocks Nick Clegg as a deluded patsy of the posho Tories. He starts off being offered a biscuit and ends up being chased across the cabinet table by a big cat. Because he’s shrunk, y’see. And naked. I’m not sure I’m doing its nuanced subtlety justice. It’s sort-of funny, at least if you enjoy laughing at one-dimensional caricatures which fit your pre-existing bias – a bit like a sketch for Radio 4’s The Now Show. You can watch it for yourselves here.

Kudos to the Lib Dem team at Great George Street who immediately re-packaged the party’s own video The Incredible Silent Man chiding Labour leader Ed Miliband’s reluctance to take the fight to Ukip or make the case for Europe:

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Posted in News | Tagged , , , , and | 57 Comments
Stephen Tall

What Lib Dem members think about top-rate tax: 53% back 50p (or higher) BUT only if it raises more revenue

By Stephen Tall | Fri 2nd May 2014 - 8:00 am

Project 365 114 - MoneyLib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum  to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. More than 830 party members responded – thank you – and we’re publishing the full results.

53% support 50p (or higher) top-rate of tax; 31% say stick at 45p; 13% back 40p (or lower)

Currently the top rate of income tax is 45p in the pound for earnings over £150,000. Which rate do you support this top rate being set …

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Posted in LDV Members poll | Tagged , and | 21 Comments
Stephen Tall

Rent reforms – Miliband to announce 20th area of Lib-Lab agreement today

By Stephen Tall | Thu 1st May 2014 - 10:00 am

decent homesSix weeks ago I highlighted the 17 policy areas where there is significant agreement between Labour and the Lib Dems. These range from tax-cuts for low-earners and the mansion tax to local school accountability to an EU in/out referendum. There were also two areas I omitted, flagged by Adam Corlett in a comment here: childcare and a living wage.

A 20th area can now be added, with Ed Miliband set to announce Labour’s plans for the private rental sector, some of which mirror the Lib Dems’ Decent Home …

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Posted in News | Tagged , , and | 25 Comments
Stephen Tall

Latest Euro election polls: Ukip take the lead, but what about the Lib Dems?

By Stephen Tall | Wed 30th April 2014 - 10:20 pm

It’s the last day of April, a month which began with the second ‘Nick v Nigel’ debate and has seen 11 polls asking specifically about voting intentions in the European elections on 22nd May. Here’s what they show:

euro election polls april 2014

Quite a lot of movement, but the trend appears now to be that Ukip are in a clear first place above 30%, followed by Labour around 25%, then the Tories on 20%. The Lib Dems are some way back in fourth place, at or around 10%, with the Greens fluctuating …

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Posted in Europe / International and Polls | Tagged | 50 Comments
Stephen Tall

Local elections 2014: your quick-and-easy guide to the Lib Dem numbers that matter

By Stephen Tall | Tue 29th April 2014 - 8:00 am

Polling station sign. Photo credit: nilexuk on FlickrLib Dems in England will need no reminding that 22nd May isn’t just European election polling day: it’s also local election day across all 32 London boroughs, all 36 metropolitan boroughs, 74 second-tier district authorities, 20 unitary authorities and five directly-elected mayoral posts.

There are 4,216 seats up for grabs. No party is contesting them all, though as you can see both Labour and Conservatives are fielding candidates in more than 90% of them, while the Lib Dems are contesting 65%. Ukip will be standing in just under 50% of seats and the Greens in 42%.*

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Posted in News | Tagged | 46 Comments
Stephen Tall

Drugs and e-cigarettes: criminalise, legalise, regulate? Here’s what Lib Dem members think…

By Stephen Tall | Mon 28th April 2014 - 2:00 pm

drugsLib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum  to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. More than 830 party members responded – thank you – and we’re publishing the full results.

Two-thirds of Lib Dems back legalisation of ‘soft’ drugs…

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Posted in LDV Members poll | Tagged , and | 14 Comments
Stephen Tall

Ukip examined: who they are, what they stand for, and what it all means for British politics

By Stephen Tall | Mon 28th April 2014 - 8:00 am

revolt on the right ukipI’ve just finished reading Revolt on the Right, Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin’s fascinating book analysing the rise of Ukip and what makes the party and its voters tick. Mark Pack has already written a very good review for LibDemVoice here. Here’s my take on some of its key insights.

Who votes for Ukip? The ‘left behind’

For a start, it debunks the myth that Ukip is a party of disaffected, well-to-do, shire-Tories obsessed by Europe and upset by David Cameron’s mild social liberalism on same-sex marriage. Yes, there are some Ukip voters like that, but they tend to be its peripheral voters, the ones most likely to give the Tories a kick in the Euros next month then return to their traditional True Blue ways in time for the general election. Ukip’s core vote in reality is made up of what the authors define as ‘left behind’ voters, overwhelmingly comprising older white working class males with no formal educational qualifications.

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Posted in Books and Op-eds | Tagged , , , , , and | 85 Comments
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