Author Archives: Stephen Tall

Stephen was Editor (and Co-Editor) of Liberal Democrat Voice from 2007 to 2015, and writes at The Collected Stephen Tall. He writes a fortnightly column for ConservativeHome and 'The Underdog' column for Total Politics magazine. He edited the 2013 publication, The Coalition and Beyond: Liberal Reforms for the Decade Ahead, and is a Research Associate for the liberal think-tank CentreForum. He was awarded the inaugural Lib Dem ‘Blogger of the Year’ prize in 2006, was a councillor for eight years in Oxford, including a year as Deputy Lord Mayor, and appears frequently in the media in person, in print and online. Stephen combines his political interests with his professional life as Development Director for the Education Endowment Foundation, though writes here in a personal capacity.
Stephen Tall

In the next month 7 seats will short-list their wannabe Lib Dem MPs

By Stephen Tall | Sun 27th April 2014 - 4:40 pm

Lib Dems winning hereHere’s the full list of selection contests in the coming month available for Lib Dems on the approved parliamentary candidates’ list, together with the closing date for applications. They include North West Hampshire – where, if rumours are to be believed, the Lib Dem candidate may get to take on Boris Johnson – and my home town of Horsham, so I’ll be watching that one with interest!

The following seats have selections in progress and are currently advertising for candidates:

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Posted in News | Tagged | 6 Comments
Stephen Tall

Who should be the Lib Dem shadow chancellor in 2015 – Vince or Danny? Here’s what Lib Dem members think…

By Stephen Tall | Sun 27th April 2014 - 8:30 am

Lib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum  to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Over 830 party members responded – thank you – and we’re publishing the full results.

vince or danny

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Posted in LDV Members poll and News | Tagged , , and | 29 Comments
Stephen Tall

64% of Lib Dems say Scotland is ‘Better Together’ with the rest of the United Kingdom

By Stephen Tall | Sat 26th April 2014 - 9:00 am

imageLib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum  to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Some 830 party members responded – thank you – and we’re publishing the full results.

Two-thirds of Lib Dem members opposed to Scottish independence

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Posted in LDV Members poll and Scotland | Tagged | 6 Comments
Stephen Tall

++BREAKING: Antidisestablishmentarian Times and Telegraph reveal new danger posed by 150 year-old Liberal pledge for separation of Church and State

By Stephen Tall | Fri 25th April 2014 - 10:15 am

times tele disestablishmentIs there no actual news happening today? Sounds a stupid question. I mean, the US has accused Russia of deliberately destabilising Ukraine, affordability tests for new mortgages are going to be toughened, and the state-owned Royal Bank of Scotland has vetoed big bonuses for staff. All important, interesting stories.

Then I looked at today’s Times and Telegraph, both of which lead on whether the Church of England should remain the established state church.

Don’t get me wrong: it’s a diverting issue. A little over five years ago, …

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Posted in News | Tagged , , , , , and | 26 Comments
Stephen Tall

EXCLUSIVE: 81% of Lib Dem members support party being in Coalition with the Conservatives

By Stephen Tall | Fri 25th April 2014 - 7:45 am

Liberal Democrat badge - Some rights reserved by Paul Walter, Newbury, UKLib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum  to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Over 830 party members responded – thank you – and we’re publishing the full results.

Members back Coalition with Conservatives by 81% to 16%

Do you support or oppose the Lib Dems being in the Coalition Government with the Conservatives? (Changes since last time question asked, Dec 2013).

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Posted in LDV Members poll | Tagged | 86 Comments
Stephen Tall

68% Lib Dem members say Clegg right to challenge Farage to debates on Europe (but, sorry Nick, more think he performed better)

By Stephen Tall | Thu 24th April 2014 - 10:01 am

Lib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum  to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Over 830 party members responded – thank you – and we’re publishing the full results.

Nigel farage nick clegg in out eu european union debateThe Lib Dems launch our European election campaign officially today – but it was unofficially kicked off in February when Nick Clegg laid down the gauntlet to Nigel Farage, challenging him to a debate on whether the UK should be in or out. We asked Lib Dem members what they thought of the duel – was Nick right to debate Nigel, and who you thought did best. Here’s what you told us…

Two-thirds say Nick right to challenge Nigel

Do you think it was good or a bad decision for Nick Clegg to challenge Nigel Farage to a debate on Britain’s membership of the European Union?

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Posted in LDV Members poll | Tagged and | 7 Comments
Stephen Tall

Easter Politics Quiz: my second starter for 10

By Stephen Tall | Sun 20th April 2014 - 2:00 pm

I asked the following questions via Twitter on Friday – they’re all taken from the now-deceased Punch magazine’s Election 1992 political board game, Landslide. Yes, I have kept it for 21 years in the hope that it would come in useful for a blog-post on a quiet holiday week-end: I’m that far-sighted.

You can tackle the first set of questions here.

Answer here.

Answer here.

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Stephen Tall

Easter Politics Quiz: my starter for 10

By Stephen Tall | Sat 19th April 2014 - 4:00 pm

I asked the following questions via Twitter yesterday – they’re all taken from the now-deceased Punch magazine’s Election 1992 political board game, Landslide. Yes, I have kept it for 21 years in the hope that it would come in useful for a blog-post on a quiet holiday week-end: I’m that far-sighted.

Answer here.

Answer here.

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Posted in News | 2 Comments
Stephen Tall

Linda Jack to announce Lib Dem party president campaign

By Stephen Tall | Sat 19th April 2014 - 12:00 pm

Linda JackLib Dem activist Linda Jack will shortly announce that she will be a candidate for the post of Party President in the all-member election that will take place this autumn.

To date, two candidates have declared their intention to run: Baroness (Sal) Brinton and Pauline Pearce. I understand Linda will officially throw her hat into the ring after May’s local and European elections.

Linda Jack has twice been a parliamentary candidate for the party: in Luton North in 2005, and in Mid-Bedfordshire (up against Nadine Dorries) in 2010. She also …

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Posted in News and Party Presidency | Tagged , , and | 35 Comments
Stephen Tall

On Sarah Wollaston’s naming and shaming in The Times of “very aggressive male bloggers”

By Stephen Tall | Sat 19th April 2014 - 10:00 am

sarah wollastonBlogging is back in the headlines again today. Dr Sarah Wollaston, the feistily independent Conservative MP for Totnes, has hit back at those online critics who denounced her role in the trial of her fellow Tory, Nigel Evans, acquitted this week on all charges of sexual assault and one of rape.

In an interview with The Times, Dr Wollaston was keen to stress that she was in no way challenging the verdict in the case, adding that she empathised with Mr Evans and his ordeal. She confessed, however, that the

…

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Posted in News | Tagged , , , , , , and | 12 Comments
Stephen Tall

6 British Pathé video clips of ex-Liberal leaders from 1931 to 1967

By Stephen Tall | Thu 17th April 2014 - 3:30 pm

Sir John Simon speaks to the Nation. “Let us give to the Prime Minister a firm mandate in the name of the whole nation” (1931)

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Posted in YouTube | Tagged , , , , and | 21 Comments
Stephen Tall

New LDV members’ survey now live: your views on Scotland, drugs, Nick v Nigel, the economy, the Coalition, and much more!

By Stephen Tall | Wed 16th April 2014 - 4:55 pm

imageThe new LDV members’ survey is now live. So if you are one of the c.1,500 registered members of the Liberal Democrat Voice forum — and any paid-up party member is welcome to join — then you now have the opportunity to make your views known.

Questions we’re asking this month include:

  • do you support or oppose Scotland becoming independent?
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Posted in LDV Members poll | 7 Comments
Stephen Tall

Daily Mail attacks Nick Clegg for Cyril Smith RIP tribute. Why?

By Stephen Tall | Wed 16th April 2014 - 9:00 am

mail cyril smith lib dems‘Squirming of the Lib Dems’ is the Daily Mail’s front page splash today. It’s the second successive day the paper has tried, a bit desperately, to pin blame on Nick Clegg for the extensive abuse allegedly committed by former Liberal MP Sir Cyril Smith in the 1960s and ’70s.

The basis for the paper’s accusations is that Nick Clegg issued a tribute on his 80th birthday and when Cyril Smith died. As Nick has pointed out, “I would never have dreamed of saying the things …

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Posted in News | Tagged , , and | 34 Comments
Stephen Tall

The verdict of Philip Collins, chief speech writer for Tony Blair, on Nick Clegg: “the Deputy Prime Minister should be applauded by all liberal voters”

By Stephen Tall | Tue 15th April 2014 - 5:45 pm

Nick Clegg Q&A 19Philip Collins uses his column in today’s Times to write something not often written on that paper’s pages (or anywhere else for that matter): praise for the Lib Dems in Coalition. Here’s the paywalled link, and here’s a glimpse behind the paywall of what he has to say:

It is therefore a serious defence of Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats to commend them for things that would have happened had they not been there. It is in the nature of things that have not happened that we

…

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Posted in News | Tagged , , and | 99 Comments
Stephen Tall

Latest ICM poll: Lib Dems at 12% for Westminster, but just 6% in the Euros

By Stephen Tall | Tue 15th April 2014 - 10:00 am

As I’ve mentioned before, The Guardian’s ICM poll is the one I wait for each month. The latest figures are now up, and the figures are… well, I’m not sure what to make of them really.

icm april 2014

In the snapshot of Westminster voting intentions, the Lib Dems are unchanged from last month on 12%, ahead of Ukip on 11% (+2%). Labour lead the Conservatives by 37% (-1%) to 32% (-3%). All the figures are within the margin of error. The party will be relieved to see that there’s …

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Posted in Polls | Tagged and | 49 Comments
Stephen Tall

Jeremy Browne’s ‘Race Plan’. I’ve read it, so here’s my review…

By Stephen Tall | Sun 13th April 2014 - 8:00 am

Jeremy Browne bookThree points to make right from the start about Jeremy Browne’s new book, Race Plan.

First, it’s a wholly Good Thing that a Lib Dem MP is choosing to think aloud, to set out clearly his views. Nick Clegg having decided that he did, after all, like one of the Beecroft recommendations and decided to fire-at-will his home office minister, Jeremy could have slunk away, tail between his legs, to nurse his bitterness. He’s chosen a rather more constructive outlet for his disappointment. By which I mean this book, rather than his short-lived, C.19th-throwback, gap year beard.

Secondly, there is a fundamental problem with the central conceit of this book: that Britain is in a global race, and that if we don’t get fitter, we’ll be overtaken by or competitors in the coming Asian Century, fall behind, and become poorer.

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Posted in Books, News and Op-eds | Tagged , , , , , and | 59 Comments
Stephen Tall

What Jeremy Browne did – and DIDN’T – tell The Times about the Lib Dems

By Stephen Tall | Sat 12th April 2014 - 8:00 am

the times browne pointlessLib Dems ‘are pointless’ – that’s today’s Times front page lead, reporting an interview it carries with Lib Dem MP Jeremy Browne.

You might imagine, therefore, that Jeremy Browne had at some point in his interview said the Lib Dems “are pointless”. But if you read the article you’ll be disappointed. He doesn’t say it. That a newspaper with the reputation of The Times should put in quotation marks made-up quotes is quite something.

However, the headline isn’t based on nothing, even if one of the words attributed to …

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Posted in News | Tagged , and | 41 Comments
Stephen Tall

The Nigel Farage Paradox: the higher his public profile, the lower is public support to leave the EU

By Stephen Tall | Mon 7th April 2014 - 9:45 am

Nigel Farage

Here is the Nigel Farage paradox: the more that Ukip’s media profile, poll rating and party membership has grown over the last two years, the more that support for the party’s core mission – that Britain should leave the European Union – seems to have shrunk.

    Sunder Katwala, director of British Future (New Statesman, 3 April 2014)
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Posted in News | Tagged , , , , , , and | 31 Comments
Stephen Tall

UPDATED: Full list of Lib Dems standing in our held seats and top 50 targets

By Stephen Tall | Sun 6th April 2014 - 2:15 pm

We’re little more than a year from the May 2015 election so here’s my latest running check on how candidate selection is going in our held and key target seats…

Lib Dems winning hereI published a first draft of this list at the start of October, and asked readers to help me update it. Many thanks to those of you who have helped me keep it updated, including the party’s Candidates Services Office. Here’s the latest version of the list of (re-)selections in our held seats and the top 50 targets for the party.

It’s a snapshot of how the party’s doing in getting people in place in the battleground seats that will determine the extent of Lib Dem influence in the next parliament:

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Posted in Selection news | Tagged | 4 Comments
Stephen Tall

Chart of the day: how spending on day-to-day public services will have been cut by 37% by 2018-19

By Stephen Tall | Fri 4th April 2014 - 1:55 pm

It is simply not true – as our critics on the left pretend – that we are slashing and burning the state. By the end of this Parliament, public spending will still be 42% of GDP. That’s higher than at any time between 1995 and when the banks crashed, in 2008.

    Nick Clegg, 10th March 2013

It’s a soothing line from Nick Clegg, designed to reassure Lib Dems that the Coalition’s austerity programme is simply curbing the spending excess of the Blair/Brown years.

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Posted in News | Tagged , , , , and | 24 Comments
Stephen Tall

The Swiss Wheeze: the Better Off Out argument that’s full of holes

By Stephen Tall | Thu 3rd April 2014 - 2:40 pm

Swiss CheeseIf only we were Switzerland, eh? That’s the dream of the Better Off Out brigade, who long for its freedom as part of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). And it’s a tempting offer: all the benefits of free trade with EU member states, and (if you believe Nigel Farage, Dan Hannan et al) none of the risks.

Except it’s not quite that easy, as The Economist highlighted when it investigated Britain’s options.

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Posted in Europe / International and News | Tagged , , , , , , , , and | 19 Comments
Stephen Tall

Nick v Nigel: the polls call it for Farage. Disappointing, but don’t panic! Here’s 3 reasons why you shouldn’t…

By Stephen Tall | Wed 2nd April 2014 - 10:30 pm

Farage cleggLast week we had one post-debate poll. It showed Farage won overall, but the split was more interesting: Labour and Lib Dem voters went for Nick, Tory and Ukippers for Nigel. As you’d probably expect.

This week we had two post-debate polls, and their results are remarkably similar. ICM says Clegg was reckoned to have won by 31% of viewers, Farage by 69%. YouGov says 27% preferred Clegg, 68% Farage.

ICM has released the breakdown of its poll. This week, Labour voters split (narrowly) in Farage’s favour, by 57% …

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Posted in Op-eds and Polls | Tagged , and | 56 Comments
Stephen Tall

Nick v Nigel, Round 2: My second thoughts

By Stephen Tall | Wed 2nd April 2014 - 8:22 pm

clegg farage lbcLast week, there was no doubt in my mind that Nick Clegg won the debate – he quite simply out-classed Nigel Farage, and YouGov’s poll showed Labour and Lib Dem voters agreed (though not Tory and Ukip voters).

This week, it was much more evenly matched. The early part belonged to Nick. With the focus on the Ukip leader’s praise for Vladimir Putin as a “brilliant operator”, Nigel Farage was always going to be on the back-foot. He was, and Nick was able successfully to claim the calm …

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Posted in News | Tagged , and | 41 Comments
Stephen Tall

So how’s my scenario 3 – a Tory lead of 6% by May 2015 – working out then?

By Stephen Tall | Wed 2nd April 2014 - 2:50 pm

Time to dust down a post from last December looking at scenarios for the 2015 election based on current polling – two of which pointed to the Conservatives being likely to take a poll lead in the next year.

(NB: as then, please note my huge caveat – “the extent of the polling science on display here is me playing around on an Excel spreadsheet.”)

In particular, I was curious what might have happen to my third scenario in the meantime. So pasted below is what I wrote in December, but I’ve updated the graph to add the last four months’ average poll leads to see how they fit the trend-line. (The answer is pretty well.)

Scenario 3

File this under the heading “a bit of fun… probably” – let’s look at the whole parliament and insert a polynomial trendline to take us through to May 2015. Here’s what happens:

tory lead in may 2015 scenario 3

Under Scenario 3, then, the Conservatives bounce back from their mid-term slump to lead Labour by 6% come the next general election. It couldn’t happen – could it?

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Posted in News and Polls | Tagged , and | 20 Comments
Stephen Tall

Vince Cable in his own words on the sale of Royal Mail

By Stephen Tall | Tue 1st April 2014 - 9:05 pm

Vincent CableThe publication of a report today by the National Audit Office criticising the “deep caution” of Vince Cable’s department in setting the sale price of shares in Royal Mail has, inevitably, been leapt on by opponents of the policy. Critics who would, of course, have been equally happy crowing if the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills had set the price too high causing the flotation flop.

Vince Cable went to the despatch box of the Commons today to defend his department’s actions, making headlines for unambiguously stating, “The last thing …

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Posted in Parliament | Tagged , , and | 56 Comments
Stephen Tall

Chris Huhne is a glass half-full kinda guy

By Stephen Tall | Mon 31st March 2014 - 9:15 pm

chris_huhneChris Huhne’s weekly column for The Guardian is a must-read for me. Mainly because his writing is just as you’d expect: not afraid to put some stick about (yeah, yeah: he takes no prisoners) but there’s plenty of sharp intelligence too.

And there’s a pretty hefty dollop of optimism this week, too, as he looks at the polls for evidence of a Lib Dem revival:

There was also a straw in the wind pointing to happier times: YouGov just found more people saying they would vote Lib Dem in the

…

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Posted in News | Tagged | 10 Comments
Stephen Tall

Time for Nick Clegg to ditch the “Great Britain not Little England” line

By Stephen Tall | Sun 30th March 2014 - 11:45 am

england-flag“Great Britain not little England” – it was a line Nick Clegg used in his recent Spring conference speech, setting up the new political dividing lines between those who are optimistic, outward-looking, progressive pro-Europeans and those who are gloomy, isolationst, reactionary anti-Europeans.

It’s a line he used again in this week’s Nick v Nigel debate. “Great Britain, not Little England” was the subject line, too, of the party’s immediate post-debate email to supporters.

Clearly it’s a line the party believes encapsulates the main fault-line in British politics right now. …

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , , , , and | 37 Comments
Stephen Tall

In the next month 9 seats will short-list their wannabe Lib Dem MPs

By Stephen Tall | Sat 29th March 2014 - 5:30 pm

Lib Dems winning hereHere’s the full list of selection contests in the coming month available for Lib Dems on the approved parliamentary candidates’ list, together with the closing date for applications. They include Bristol North West, on paper the 26th most winnable seat for the Lib Dems, needing a swing of 3% from the Tories.

The following seats have selections in progress and are currently advertising for candidates:

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Stephen Tall

A longer read for the weekend: How important will incumbency be to the Lib Dems in 2015?

By Stephen Tall | Sat 29th March 2014 - 12:52 pm

Liberal Democrat badge - Some rights reserved by Paul Walter, Newbury, UKLast year I wrote a piece, So, about that Lib Dem wipeout in 2015 then…, highlighting that – though the polls are grim for the Lib Dems – the assumption of many pundits that this will automatically translate into Lib Dem annihilation at the next election is flawed.

That brief analysis was based on looking at the lists of Lib Dem-held seats that Labour and the Tories are targeting. Now Craig Johnson from Newcastle University has taken a more …

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Posted in Party policy and internal matters and What do the academics say? | Tagged , and | 8 Comments
Stephen Tall

Latest Euro poll shows how, in this May’s elections, every %-age point matters for the Lib Dems

By Stephen Tall | Fri 28th March 2014 - 11:45 am

clegg farage lbcInterest in the outcome of May’s European elections is picking up, at least judged by the number of polls the newspapers are commissioning – four have been published in the last fortnight. Here’s the average support for the parties:

    Labour – 30%
    Ukip – 26%
    Conservative – 24%
    Lib Dems – 9%

Converting that into seats using EuroElection predict’s online gizmo would produce the following figures:

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Posted in Europe / International and Polls | Tagged and | 28 Comments
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