Author Archives: Stephen Tall

Stephen was Editor (and Co-Editor) of Liberal Democrat Voice from 2007 to 2015, and writes at The Collected Stephen Tall. He writes a fortnightly column for ConservativeHome and 'The Underdog' column for Total Politics magazine. He edited the 2013 publication, The Coalition and Beyond: Liberal Reforms for the Decade Ahead, and is a Research Associate for the liberal think-tank CentreForum. He was awarded the inaugural Lib Dem ‘Blogger of the Year’ prize in 2006, was a councillor for eight years in Oxford, including a year as Deputy Lord Mayor, and appears frequently in the media in person, in print and online. Stephen combines his political interests with his professional life as Development Director for the Education Endowment Foundation, though writes here in a personal capacity.

LDVUSA Election Nite 2008 live-blog

Well, tonight’s the night when we finally find out: has the USA elected its first black President? Or are the opinion polls wronger than they’ve been in history? Join us tonight, here on LDV, for our election-nite live-blog, and feel free to contribute your comments as we type.

Don’t forget, you can follow what’s happening when, and what to look out for, by using Lib Dem councillor Joe Taylor‘s indispensable cut-out-n-keep download’n’print guide to the American Elections here.

10.52 pm
Well, as you can see (or not) at the moment, CoverItLive seems to have fallen victim to the mass server overload that seems to be bringing down websites left, right and centre. (Not that I check the ones on the right so much). So, for now, I’m afraid for now we’re reliant on steam-powered Internet live-blogging. Sorry, and all that.

10.56 pm
PoliticsHome is feeding us first exit poll data: 62% of voters named the economy as their top issue in deciding who to vote for; Iraq and terrorism trailed with 10% and 9% respectively. This is a domestic, bread ‘n’ butter election.

11.08 pm
Exit poll – with all the caveats – from Virginia via Talking Points Memo blog: “The early exits we’re seeing out of Virginia suggest a close race with an advantage to Obama. The split of the white vote looks similar to what Jim Webb got in 2006, but with blacks making up a substantially larger percentage of the electorate.”

Posted in LDVUSA | 8 Comments

LDVUSA – join us here live from 11pm

The Lib Dem Voice collective will be live-blogging the US election from 11pm tonight, via the magic of CoverItLive. So keep the site open as you watch/listen/browse your way through the twists and turns of a truly historic night. As well as our chat and your comments, we’ll also have a couple of posts from Our Man in Grant Park Chicago, Lib Dem councillor Paul Elgood. See you in just over a couple of hours.

Oh, and by the way, if you see any exit poll leaks on t’intenets, (i) ignore them – they’re probably wrong; and (ii) …

Posted in LDVUSA | 19 Comments

Pupil ‘bonuses’ “totally unjust”, says Laws

David Laws, the Lib Dems’ shadow secretary of state for schools, has criticised the policy of paying poorer students for, among other things, attending class. The Telegraph reports:

In some cases, students are paid £250 each in taxpayers’ money for attending every class over the course of a year. Middle-class students with the same academic record are ineligible for the payments.

The cash is paid on top of a basic £30-a-week grant handed out to all students from deprived backgrounds to remain in education up to 18 – instead of getting a job. … bonuses worth a record £100.5m were

Posted in News | Tagged and | 10 Comments

Last chance to predict the US Presidential result (and win an LDV mug!)

You have, as I type, just under 10 hours to submit your predictions for the LDVUSA prediction competition: entries must be received by 9 am, Tuesday, to qualify. To find out what you need to do, and to enter your prediction, click here. Winners will receive general acclaim and a limited edition Lib Dem Voice mug – what more incentive could you need?

Posted in LDVUSA | Leave a comment

LDV still doesn’t do statporn, but if we did…

We’d say a big thank you to the 22,628 ‘absolute unique visitors’* who read Liberal Democrat Voice in October, our highest total ever, and a whopping 106% increase on a year ago. (For the record, the comparable figure for Iain Dale was 67,674).

Whether you’re a regular here, or an occasional ‘popper-by’, we’re delighted you looked in. And if you enjoy reading LDV, why not try writing for LDV?

* Google’s term: it broadly means people using over 22,000 different computers visited LDV at least once.

Posted in Site news | Tagged | 2 Comments

Official: Lib Dem voters more intelligent than Tory and Labour voters (Nationalist, BNP and UKIP voters least intelligent of all)

At last official research has told us what most Lib Dems have known for years: our voters are more intelligent than those who vote for the Tories or Labour. Academic research published in the journal Intelligence – and given an airing in today’s Guardian – compares the way people voted in the 2001 election with their IQ at the age of 10 (using data from the 1970 British cohort study).

And here’s what it shows:

On a party-by-party basis, the average (childhood) IQ scores for 2001 voters were:

Green – 108.3
Liberal Democrat – 108.2
Conservative – 103.7
Labour – 103
Plaid Cymru – 102.5
Scottish National

Posted in News | Tagged and | 18 Comments

LDVUSA: your chance to enter the Presidential election prediction competition

After perhaps the most fascinating electoral contest in modern political history, with more twists, turns and surprises than could ever have been imagined two years ago when it all began, the race to the White House is drawing to a close. In just three days (barring any hanging chads) we will know if the USA has elected its first black, or its oldest ever, President.

What we’re inviting Lib Dem Voice readers to do is to predict the likely outcome. The winner will earn not only the respect and acclaim of the Lib Dem blogosphere, but also the penultimate, limited edition LDV mug.

Here’s what you need to do to enter. First, predict the winner; secondly, predict the result in the electoral college; and, thirdly, predict the popular vote Senators Obama and McCain will attract.

So, if you believe the RealClearPolitics.com averages of the polls right now, you might enter the following answers:

1. Obama
2. Obama 353, McCain 185
3. Obama 50%, McCain 44%

The winner will be the reader who predicts the winner, and is closest to the eventual electoral college vote; the popular vote will determine the result in the event of a tie.

Please leave your entries in the comments box, below, and feel free to show your working. You can use a pseudonym if you prefer to remain anonymous, but you must use a valid email address for your entry to be included. The final closing date for entries is 9am, Tuesday morning.

Here for your interest and info is the latest round-up of which way the states are likely to line up in the electoral college, according to the average of the latest polls. ‘Solid’ means a +10% lead; ‘likely’ a +4% lead, and ‘edging’ means a 0-4% lead.

Posted in LDVUSA | 33 Comments

A look back at the polls: October

We tend not to be too poll-obsessed here at LDV – of course we look at them, as do all other politico-geeks, but viewed in isolation no one poll will tell you very much beyond what you want to read into it. Looked at over a reasonable time-span and, if there are enough polls, you can see some trends.

Here, in chronological order, are the results of the ten polls* published in October:

Tories 42%, Labour 30%, Lib Dems 17% – ICM/Guardian (3 Oct)
Tories 45%, Labour 31%, Lib Dems 15% – YouGov/Telegraph (4 Oct)
Tories 45%, Labour 30%, Lib Dems 15% – Populus/Times

Posted in Op-eds and Polls | Tagged | 45 Comments

What you’ve been LibDigging this week

Have you started using LibDig yet? Either to highlight an article, blog-post or video for other Lib Dems; or simply to enjoy reading what other Lib Dems have found online. (The tech-wizard behind Lib Dem Blogs and LibDig, Ryan Cullen, explained all for Lib Dem Voice here last month).

Here at LDV we’ve started using LibDig to select the five Golden Dozen blog-posts (to complement the most clicked-to seven) – but here’s five posts from beyond the Liberal Democrat blogopshere that you’ve been LibDigging this week:

E-mail error ends up on road sign (BBC News) – submitted

Posted in Best of the blogs | Leave a comment

Brand & Ross: there’s nothing more to see here, folks

For the second night running, BBC2 Newsnight’s lead item was the fall-out from Russell Brand and Jonathan Ross’s mis-firing jokes against Andrew Sachs. For the second morning running, BBC Radio 4 Today Programme’s lead item was the fall-out from Russell Brand blah blah blah.

I know the Beeb feels the need to self-abase itself, and star interviewers are never happier than giving their bosses a hard time on flagship current affairs shows – but this is a ridiculously disproportionate over-the-top, over-hyped, over-reaction. So while Tory and Labour MPs work out how they can jump on the BBC-should-commit-mass-hara-kiri bandwagon …

Posted in News | 20 Comments

BBC Question Time: open thread

There’s no Lib Dem on tonight’s BBC1 Question Time (10.35 pm and online) – but on this occasion at least I think we can absolve the Beeb of any blame, as tonight is their US election special. The programme features adviser to Barack Obama, Elizabeth Edwards, executive director of John McCain’s campaign in New York, Christopher Nixon Cox, author and journalist Clarence Page, historian Simon Schama and political consultant Cheri Jacobus.

With just four days left ‘til the general election, the polls are pointing to a Barack Obama landslide in the electoral college, with Electroal-vote.com projecting his current lead …

Posted in LDVUSA and Lib Dem TV | Tagged | 11 Comments

LDV readers give overwhelming yes to televised leaders’ debates

A couple of weeks ago, in the immediate afterglow of the three US presidential debates, Lib Dem Voice set up a poll asking: Is it now time for the UK to introduce televised debates between the major party leaders prior to a general election?

Here’s what you told us:

• Yes, it is time – 83% (248)
• No, it is not time – 15% (46)
• Don’t know – 2% (6)
Total Votes: 300. Poll ran: 17th-28th October 2008

I think that’s probably the most overwhelming result we’ve yet had from an LDV readers’ poll. Of course, the probability of Gordon …

Posted in Voice polls | Tagged | 3 Comments

PMQs: Nick tackles Gordon on wasteful public spending

This being Prime Minister’s Questions, the burning topic of the day – should Russell Brand and Jonathan Ross be publicly flogged for crimes against Andrew Sachs – was not tackled. But, this being PMQs, there was plenty of other puerile posturing and manipulative outrage on display.

The Tories’ David Cameron returned to the questioning that brought him no joy last week: demanding that Gordon Brown accept that ‘boom and bust’, far from being vanquished, is alive and well in UK plc today. The rest of his questions got bogged down in trying to prove the Prime Minister has abandoned his infamous fiscal rules.

Mr Cameron is right about this, but it’s poor strategy for three reasons: (i) the Tory leader just doesn’t sound convincing when talking about the details of economic policy; (ii) the Prime Minister (rather as Tony Blair did after 9/11) is quite content, at least for the moment, to say extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures; and (iii) because, as The Spectator’s Fraser Nelson argues here, the Tory leader is failing to project any form of Tory narrative that might connect with voters. More than usual, Mr Cameron is adopting slick debating society schtick during these recession reality PMQs. It worked once; it’s not working now.

By contrast, the Lib Dems’ Nick Clegg used his two salvoes to make two big, connected points: that there are billions of government spending that not only can be cut, but should be cut (eg, ID cards and the surveillance database); and that the best and fairest way to stimulate the economy is to cut taxes for low- and middle-income earners. In doing so, Nick gains high praise from Fraser (again):

Finally, the right line from Prime Minister’s Questions – and it’s one that Gordon Brown will fear the most. “What people need now is more money in their pockets. He could deliver big tax cuts for people who desperately need help”. It was from Nick Clegg. You can argue – as I do – that the Liberal Democrats’ proposed tax cut is paltry. But the rhetoric and positioning is precisely right. It’s a binary distinction: Brown trusts the state, and wants to spend his way out of a recession. Clegg is saying he trusts the British public, and wants to stimulate the economy by letting them keep more of their own money. When Brown retorted that the “Liberal Party” would somehow damage the British economy by taking out £20 billion of spending, it sounded irrelevant. Clegg has astutely judged that the Tories are missing an open goal because of internal struggles with the concept of tax cuts. It’s a no-brainer in the current environment – has anyone see Barack Obama’s website recently? Obama’s figures, like Clegg’s, are paltry if you add them up. But the positioning is right. Clegg is showing the Tories how to do it.

Anyway, you can judge for yourselves, below, via YouTube and the Hansard transcript:

Posted in News and PMQs | Tagged and | 5 Comments

NEW POLL: time to scrap the BBC licence fee?

In his Lib Dem News column this week, reprinted on his Liberal England blog, Jonathan Calder poses what he terms “an awkward question that won’t go away”:

How can you justify financing the BBC through the licence fee in a multi-channel, multi-platform, multi-everything world? Increasing numbers of people rarely watch its programmes and the fee is the nearest thing we have to a poll tax. If the BBC has its way, it will cost us all £180 a year by 2013.

Those arguing the case for the continuation of the BBC licence fee have not had their case made any …

Posted in Voice polls | Tagged | 103 Comments

Tebbit backs Lib Dem Euro policy

Former Tory party chairman Lord (Norman) Tebbit has urged David Cameron to follow the lead of Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg in demanding the British public be allowed an ‘in or out’ referendum choice on the UK’s membership of the EU. Okay, Tebbo didn’t put it quite like that… but, still, the effect’s the same:

David Cameron must promise a referendum on whether the UK should leave the European Union, former Tory chairman Lord Tebbit is expected to say. In a speech on Monday, he will call on the Conservative leader to show “Thatcherite courage” on the issue. This should

Posted in Europe / International and News | Tagged and | 23 Comments

Top of the Blogs: The Golden Dozen #88

Welcome to the all-the-eights 88th of our weekly round-ups from the Lib Dem blogosphere, featuring the seven most popular stories according to click-throughs from the Aggregator (19th-25th October), together with a hand-picked quintet, mostly courtesy of LibDig, you might otherwise have missed.

How about starting with the most popular blog-posting, and we work our way down? Here goes…

Posted in Best of the blogs | 1 Comment

Lib Dem MPs divide on embryology bill free vote

The Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill passed the House of Commons easily this week, 355 to 129. The Bill’s measures include allowing scientists to produce human-animal “hybrid embryos” for stem cells, use of “saviour siblings” to provide bone marrow or umbilical cord tissue for treating genetic conditions, as well as making it easier for lesbians and single women to access NHS fertilisation services and allowing a lesbian or gay couple to be named on the birth certificate as the legal parents of their children.

The Lib Dems made it a free vote, and 16 MPs voted against the Bill at …

Posted in News | Tagged , and | 19 Comments

Mike Smithson on why Lib Dem poll ratings vary so much

Mike Smithson, founding editor of PoliticalBetting.com and occasional Lib Dem Voice contributor, has written an interesting post on his site analysing why the Lib Dems’ poll ratings vary so much between the different pollsters – this is a question that LDV has also looked at a few times, including this past week, with two polls (by YouGov and ICM respectively) placing the party at 14% and 21%.

Mike notes:

All the pollsters have different ways of processing the data and the ICM mathematical approach is probably the most friendly to Nick Clegg’s party. But that is not enough to

Posted in Polls | 6 Comments

BBC Question Time: Open Thread

Are you tuning in tonight for BBC1’s flagship political discussion show (10.35 pm, and online)? If so, you’ll have the pleasure of seeing Jo Swinson, Ed Davey’s deputy at foreign affairs and Lib Dem MP for East Dunbartonshire, whose talents many of you would like to see put to full use in the party’s shadow cabinet.

In fact there’s a real Scottish flavour to the show, which is coming to us from, erm, Peterborough, as Jo will be alongside the SNP leader and First Minister of Scotland Alex Salmond, and the editor of the Financial Times, Lionel Barber, who …

Posted in Lib Dem TV | Tagged , and | 14 Comments

Huhne refers Osborne to Electoral Commission; Baker refers Osborne to Parliamentary Standards Commissioner

It’s been a busy day for two of the Lib Dems’ most tenacious shadow cabinet members today, with both Chris Huhne and Norman Baker urging investigations into Tory shadow chancellor George Osborne’s donation discussions with Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska.

Chris Huhne wrote to the Chairman of the Electoral Commission, George Sam Younger*, asking him to confirm:

that a donation by a foreign citizen not resident and on the electoral register in the UK ‘channelled’ through a conduit such as a UK trading company would be illegal. If so, there is a prima facie case for considering whether Mr Osborne and Mr

Posted in News | Tagged , , , and | 4 Comments

YouGov poll: Vince would be the best Chancellor for Britain right now

Channel 4 News has commissioned a poll from YouGov in the 60 marginal constituencies David Cameron needs to win to form a Government. LDV doesn’t dwell on individual poll results – the only sensible way to use polls is to look at trends – but it’s worth highlighting one finding which is unlikely to get much publicity.

YouGov asked the question: “If you were to put political party preferences to one side who would be the best Chancellor for Britain right now?”

And here’s what the public said:

Alistair Darling – 15%
George Osborne – 12%
Vince Cable -19%
Don’t know –

Posted in Polls | Tagged | 55 Comments

PMQs: Nick tackles Gordon on pensioner fuel poverty

No surprises that the financial crisis again dominated the slanging-match exchanges at Prime Minister’s Questions this week.

Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg stuck to his week-in-week-out brief – asking punchy questions about the ‘bread and butter’ issues affecting the lives of everyday folk – this time focusing on fuel poverty, and the estimates that up to 80% of single pensioners will struggle to heat their homes this winter. Nick even managed to get in a sly dig at both Labour and the Tories over the Mandelson-Osborne Russian donor imbroglio, noting that Gordon Brown “is all at sea, if not in a luxury yacht, like some prominent members of the Opposition.”

David Cameron once again found himself on the defensive when challenging the Prime Minister, with his frustration levels visibly rising as he sees the Prime Minister growing in confidence in inverse proportion to the growth of the British economy.

The Tory leader has a problem at the moment: in times of crisis, you have to sound like you have a firm grip on policy, that you can offer solutions not just identify problems. Everyone knows the economy’s gone tits-up on Labour’s watch. But most of the public recognises that this is a global financial crisis, and that the Tories, just like Labour, failed to see it coming, and when it did happen stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Labour. So politicians are currently being judged on the proposals they put forward now, not the degree of foresight they showed previously (sadly for the Lib Dems and Vince).

Anyway judge for yourselves how Vince did, via the magic of YouTube and Hansard:

Posted in News and PMQs | Tagged and | Leave a comment

This is what happens when you forget that private means private, George

When the story of Peter Mandelson and George Osborne’s meeting was leaked to the press by the Tory shadow chancellor three weeks ago, I argued on Lib Dem Voice that Mr Osborne had behaved pretty shabbily:

There’s a principle at stake here, even if it’s one increasingly regarded as old-fashioned: that private conversations held in good faith should be respected.

At the time, Iain Dale (every Lib Dem’s favourite Tory blogger) accused me of being “pious”. But, in fact, there’s more to not leaking private conversations than good manners: it’s also good sense. Who knows exactly why Mr Rothshild decided …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged and | 3 Comments

Top of the Blogs: The Golden Dozen #87

Welcome to the 87th of our weekly round-ups from the Lib Dem blogosphere, featuring the seven most popular stories according to click-throughs from the Aggregator (12th-18th October), together with a hand-picked quintet you might otherwise have missed.

How about starting with the most popular blog-posting, and we work our way down? Here goes…

Posted in Best of the blogs | 4 Comments

The polls: what, and who, to believe?

I’ve noted on a couple of previous occasions here on Lib Dem Voice, the sharp divergence which different polling companies’ methodologies produce in the Lib Dems’ ratings. The trouble is that very few political journalists take much notice of such details: how often have you heard sweeping statements from commentators that talk about ‘the polls’, as if they all asked the same questions in the same way, producing the same results?

The trend in recent days had appeared more than usually gloomy for the Lib Dems, with the last seven polls placing the party in the 14-18% range.

Yet …

Posted in Polls | Tagged | 26 Comments

ComRes financial crisis poll: public not so impressed by Gordon’s (think Dave would have handled it worse)

Tomorrow’s Independent will carry a poll from Communication Research, the first poll conducted since last week’s financial bail-out of the banks (and therefore of more interest than LDV would normally give to any individual poll). John Rentoul reports the headlines over at the paper’s Open House blog here:

We asked whether people agreed or disagreed with the following statements:

It is right that taxpayers’ money should be used to bail out banks.
Agree 37% Disagree 58%
I will scale back my Christmas spending plans to save money.
Agree 62% Disagree 36%
Gordon Brown’s decisive handling of the bank crisis means that Labour has a

Posted in Polls | Tagged | 37 Comments

Don’t forget to send in your Golden Dozen nominations

Regular readers of our weekly Golden Dozen feature will know that five of its 12 slots (Nos 8-12) are open to reader (self-)nominations. So, if there’s a particular Lib Dem blog-posting you’ve enjoyed in the past seven days – or something you’ve written which you feel deserves to be shared with LDV’s readers – then get in touch.

All you have to do is drop me a line at [email protected], providing the web-link and author, and any tagline comment you care to have published.

Posted in News | 7 Comments

Nick Clegg “sidelined”? Erm, not quite Sam

Fan as I am of The Times’s Sam Coates’ Red Box blog, an article today by Sam for the newspaper contains one of those Westminster Village myths which quickly establishes itself as fact unless challenged:

Some Conservatives may fret , but they do not have it as bad as the Liberal Democrats. Nick Clegg gave a speech on Monday morning cautioning that the crisis was an “economic 9/11”. Not a single sentence of the speech was reported in Tuesday’s papers.

Now, to be fair, I didn’t buy all of Tuesdays papers to check this out. What I did do, though, was …

Posted in News | Tagged and | 13 Comments

LDV readers say: police chiefs should not be chosen by the public

In the immediate wake of Boris Johnson forcing the resignation of Sir Ian Blair as head of London’s Metropolitan police force, Lib Dem Voice asked readers how you think police chiefs should be chosen: directly elected by the public; or appointed by democratically accountable local police authorities.

Here’s what you told us:

They should be directly elected by the public – 23% (70)
They should be appointed by democratically accountable local police authorities – 74% (227)
Don’t know / No opinion – 10 (3%)
Total Votes: 307 Poll ran: 2nd-16th October 2008

So, by a majority of 3:1, LDV readers rejected the idea of direct …

Posted in Voice polls | Tagged | Leave a comment

NEW POLL: should we have a televised leaders’ debate in the UK?

It’s not just the US electorate which has closely followed the three Presidential (and one vice-presidential) debates – much of the British political class has also been transfixed by the sheer theatre and high stakes involved in these face-offs.

In reality, all four debates have perhaps disappointed those expecting, or hoping for, ‘game-changing’ fireworks or gaffes from any of the candidates. Though as Martin Kettle put it in today’s Guardian:

Too many observers wait for someone to say something either utterly brilliant or staggeringly stupid. But that’s not what the debates are about. The real point of the debates is

Posted in Voice polls | 7 Comments
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