Category Archives: General Election

Dominic Carman

Barking campaign update

By Dominic Carman | Tue 20th April 2010 - 1:20 pm

The Barking campaign is remarkable. Most notable have not been the antics, or should that be the absence, of Nick Griffin. Instead, it has been the response of the other main candidates – Margaret Hodge (Labour) and Simon Marcus (Conservative) – to the issue of immigration.

Hodge and Marcus have both rightfully slammed Griffin and the BNP, but then courted BNP voters and potential BNP voters with anti-immigrant rhetoric.

Asked about immigration by Eddie Nestor, host of a BBC Radio London one hour debate on Barking (April 16th), Hodge had not one positive word to say about immigrants. Instead, her analysis was …

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Stephen Tall

The Lib Dem poll surge: temporary blip, or political earthquake?

By Stephen Tall | Tue 20th April 2010 - 12:00 pm

Cross-posted from the International Business Times:

Forget a week being a long time in politics. In this hyped-up, ultra-connected world 90 minutes on television can see your electoral fortunes transformed. And so it is that, as I write, the Lib Dems have just been placed in the lead in the opinion polls for the first in the party’s modern history, with 33% of the vote, leading the Tories on 32% and Labour slipping back to just 26%.

This is heady stuff for a party accustomed to being sidelined by the national media as a distracting irrelevance from two-party politics. …

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Mark Pack

So, what is the Conservative Party strategy now?

By Mark Pack | Tue 20th April 2010 - 9:20 am

In recent days we’ve had:

It’s not happening! It’s not happening!

Hence Eric Pickles telling the media the weekend that there was no Lib Dem surge detectable in the Conservative Party’s canvassing and Boris Johnson writing in the Telegraph that Nick Clegg was “by far the worst”. Yeah right.

Go right! Go right!

Hence William Hague warning of a European Union inspired catastrophe if the Lib Dems win. Guess he’s not on talking terms with Eric Pickles or Boris Johnson, because how could the Lib Dems win if they are both right? But also I guess he’s hoping we’ve all forgotten the number of …

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Stephen Tall

The #GE2010 Golden Half-Dozen: pick of the Lib Dem blogs (19th April)

By Stephen Tall | Mon 19th April 2010 - 11:20 pm

During the election campaign Lib Dem Voice is each day (more or less) highlighting six blog-posts from the Lib Dem Blogs Aggregator which we think are well worth reading.

Here’s our pick from 14th April …


    Post election deals: number two cannot play second fiddle to number three     (Jock Coats)

    Let’s assume for one magical moment that the Lib Dems remain in second place and take the second highest share of the vote, after the Tories, and that Labour takes the third highest share of the vote. … It would be utterly unconscionable in such circumstances to do any deals with

…

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Stephen Tall

Pollwatch Day 14 #GE2010 – Lib Dems in 1st or 2nd place with 28-32% in today’s polls

By Stephen Tall | Mon 19th April 2010 - 10:40 pm

Five new polls reported tonight – and it’s still resoundingly good news for the Lib Dems with the surge holding steady:

    YouGov in the Sun … CON 33(+1), LAB 27%(+1), LIB DEM 31%(-2)
    Opinium in the Express … CON 32%(-7), LAB 26%(-5), LIB DEM 29%(+12)
    ComRes for the Independent/ITV … CON 32%(+1), LAB 28%(+1), LIB DEM 28%(-1)
    Angus Reid for PoliticalBetting.com … CON 32%(-6), LAB 24%(-4), LIB DEM 32%(+10)
    ICM in the Guardian … CON 33%(-1), LAB 28%(-1), LIB DEM 30%(+3)

Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ is still playing catch-up with the last five days’ quite extraordinary polls, and is showing the …

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Also posted in Polls | 11 Comments
Mark Pack

My favourite quote of the day

By Mark Pack | Mon 19th April 2010 - 8:37 pm

From a senior campaign source: “We’re talking here about offering our services to the Labour Party as we’re the ones with the experience of fighting general elections when you’re in third.”

The more serious point is that many people, even inside the Liberal Democrats, have consistently under-estimated just how large scale the party’s targeting efforts are for this general election. It would be wrong of me to publicise information I know from working for the party until last year, but it’s safe to say that (a) it’s massively bigger than previous targeting efforts – so much so that during this Parliament …

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Stephen Tall

YouGov ‘push-polling’ mystery deepens

By Stephen Tall | Mon 19th April 2010 - 7:45 pm

Earlier today Lib Dem Voice published a post asking the question, Are YouGov and Murdoch ‘push-polling’ for the Tories? This followed internet reports that the online pollster had been posing deliberately leading questions designed not simply to test public opinion, but to lead it.

Liberal Conspiracy picked up the story and put the question direct to Peter Kellner of YouGov, whose elliptical reply stated:

As with all agencies, we ask all kinds of questions for all kinds of clients; some public, some private. For purposes of testing theories, messages or policies we will often test statements phrased one way

…

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Stephen Tall

Unofficial Lib Dem Facebook fan group exceeds 100,000 members

By Stephen Tall | Mon 19th April 2010 - 6:40 pm

It’s less than a week since Lib Dem Voice brought you news of a fresh new unofficial Facebook fan group, We got Rage Against the Machine to #1, we can get the Lib Dems into office!

We noted then that the group was “almost as big” as the official Lib Dem Facebook group, having just reached the 13,000 members mark.

Since then LibDem2010.com (its official web address) has gone well and truly viral, and today it passed the 100,000 member mark. In fact it didn’t just pass it, it smashed it. As I type it stands at 102,759 members. By the time you read this it will be more, many more.

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Also posted in Online politics | Tagged | 7 Comments
Stephen Tall

Are YouGov and Murdoch ‘push-polling’ for the Tories?

By Stephen Tall | Mon 19th April 2010 - 2:30 pm

‘Push-polls’, for those unfamiliar with the term, are a political campaigning technique “in which an individual or organization attempts to influence or alter the view of respondents under the guise of conducting a poll” (Wikipedia).*

And it looks like Rupert Murdoch’s Sun newspaper someone [EDIT 20/4/2010 – see Update below) has been paying internet polling firm YouGov to undertake some ‘push-polling’ against the Lib Dems, following the surge in support for Nick Clegg’s party after last week’s televised debate.

Former British ambassador Craig Murray spotted the following comment on the PoliticalBetting.com website, and noticed its significance:

Just

…

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Stephen Tall

3 to see: Lib Dem #GE2010 campaign coverage (19/4/10)

By Stephen Tall | Mon 19th April 2010 - 1:15 pm

Pushed for time, but want to keep up-to-date with how the campaign’s going? Here are today’s must-reads …

Election 2010 could be the death knell for first past the post (Lewis Baston, Guardian)

The electoral system could not survive a perverse outcome in which the first party comes third and the third party comes first – or one in which the second-placed party has an overall majority, despite the support of fewer than one voter in three. Either case would make Florida in 2000 look like a model of democracy. There would be a justified crisis of confidence in a political

…

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Chris White

Hear that noise? That’s my feet crying.

By Chris White | Mon 19th April 2010 - 12:16 pm

I was sure I would wake up this morning and find it was all a dream. Sky News appeared last night to have reported that the Lib Dems were in the lead in a YouGov poll in the Sun. I recall Nick Clegg’s campaigning being featured first before the other party leaders – we were after all the party in the lead.

In fact my back is hurting because I left campaign HQ at 1130 after a twelve hour day putting the first freepost to bed. The agent’s day here is usually far longer but she is younger and fitter than …

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Mark Pack

Well, here’s an unusual tactic from a Conservative candidate…

By Mark Pack | Mon 19th April 2010 - 9:10 am

“Let’s vote LD” – from the Twitter feed of George Hollingbery, the Conservative candidate for Meon Valley:

George Hollingbery - Twitter screenshot

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Stephen Tall

Pollwatch Day 13 #GE2010 – YouGov puts Lib Dems in lead with 33%

By Stephen Tall | Sun 18th April 2010 - 11:50 pm

Only one new poll being reported tonight … almost not worth mentioning. Oh, alright then, it does happen to show the Lib Dems in first place, so here goes:

    YouGov in the Sun … CON 32%(-1), LAB 26%(-3), LIB DEM 33%(+4)

‘poll of polls’, which is currently showing:

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Also posted in Polls | 10 Comments
Stephen Tall

LDVideo #GE2010 Election Special – guess what, it features Nick Clegg

By Stephen Tall | Sun 18th April 2010 - 10:30 pm

So busy campaigning you’ve missed out on the latest Lib Dem campaign news? Here’s two video clips from the BBC featuring man of the moment Nick Clegg …

Clegg urges voters ‘get stuck in’ – Nick has said there is an “immense” opportunity for voters to break with the “old parties”.

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NewsHound

LibLink: Giles Wilkes – David Cameron, the Goliath

By NewsHound | Sun 18th April 2010 - 9:45 pm

Over ath The Guardian’s Comment Is Free website, Giles Wilkes – Lib Dem blogger, and chief economist for liberal think-tank Centre Forum – argues that its the Tories’ over-riding sense of entitlement which has left them bamboozled by the Lib Dem upsurge in support. Here’s an excerpt:

The Tories’ ascent to power was meant to have the inevitability of a family inheritance, something they are known to be keen on. Their reaction to a vanishing poll lead has all the outrage of an heir dispossessed by a long-ignored cousin. It shows a party that has long expected to win

…

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Mark Pack

Believe in Fairness

By Mark Pack | Sun 18th April 2010 - 9:24 pm

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Also posted in Lib Dem TV | 5 Comments
NewsHound

LibLink: James Graham – A new politics is up for grabs

By NewsHound | Sun 18th April 2010 - 7:45 pm

Over at The Guardian’s Comment Is Free website, Lib Dem blogger James Graham makes the argument that anyone wanting to transform politics in the UK at this election has the obvious solution in their hands: a vote for the Lib Dems: “Voting Lib Dem this time is the equivalent of pressing a bloody great reset button”.

But what if the result is that a high Lib Dem vote isn’t reflected in the number of Lib Dem MPs elected? Here’s James’s answer:

What we’ve seen over the past 48 hours is the possibility of a genuinely new approach. Instead of playing

…

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Also posted in LibLink | Tagged | 1 Comment
Stephen Tall

Dear Labour Party, You’re messing with my head

By Stephen Tall | Sun 18th April 2010 - 2:45 pm

I live in Oxford East, a key Lib Dem target where in 2005 Labour scraped home by just 963 votes.

In the first week of the campaign, Labour plastered their literature with dire warnings that a vote for the Lib Dems would serve only one purpose: to let in the Tories.

Half-truths were deployed to make the point, such as “Nick Clegg is refusing to rule out a back room deal to put the Tories into power.” They could also have said Nick’s refusing to rule out a deal …

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Stephen Tall

3 to see: Lib Dem #GE2010 campaign coverage (18/4/10)

By Stephen Tall | Sun 18th April 2010 - 2:15 pm

Pushed for time, but want to keep up-to-date with how the campaign’s going? Here are today’s must-reads …

(Actually it’s hard to avoid coverage of the Lib Dems today, no matter which paper you pick).

Nick Clegg’s success built on an already incoming tide (John Curtice, Telegraph)

Nick Clegg seized his chance, his appeal summed up by the one-liner, “the more they argue with each other, the more they sound exactly the same”. … Today’s ICM poll for The Sunday Telegraph – much of it conducted just before the leaders’ debate, though some afterwards – confirms that Nick Clegg’s success built upon

…

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2 Comments
Mark Pack

The LSE wants your leaflets

By Mark Pack | Sun 18th April 2010 - 1:20 pm

A quick message from one of my old places of work, the London School of Economics:

On the campaign trail: help LSE build our election collections

The London School of Economics Archive is collecting election addresses and publicity materials produced by parliamentary candidates in the run-up to May’s general election. Please send them to us at:

Freepost RSHB-UHHY-RTSG
Archives and Rare Books
LSE Library
10 Portugal Street
London WC2A 2HD

The LSE Library has been collecting general election ephemera in this way since 1945. We now hold over 15,000 items covering the whole of the UK which includes material from minority parties and independents as well as the …

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Mark Pack

Two Conservative problems: Iain Duncan Smith and Boris Johnson

By Mark Pack | Sun 18th April 2010 - 11:50 am

There’s no doubt that many Tories are itching to shout “soft on criminals! soft on immigrants!” at the Liberal Democrats over the next few days.

One slight problem with the targets of choice: the Lib Dem policies on prison sentences and tackling the problem of illegal immigration. You see, those shouts of outrage should also be directed at Iain Duncan Smith (that well known soggy liberal who believes short prison sentences should be scrapped), not to mention notorious left-winger Boris Johnson (who believes in earned routes to citizenship for illegal immigrants).

I’m sure that will happen. Of course. No doubt about it.

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Stephen Tall

It’s been another great week for George Osborne

By Stephen Tall | Sun 18th April 2010 - 9:45 am

You may ask what could have inspired me to write such a headline. Well, it’s none other than George himself.

As Iain Martin has blogged – twice, he found the Tory shadow chancellor’s state of denial so bizarre – George Osborne has issued a message to Tory supporters assuring them:

It’s been another great week for our campaign.”

Hmmm, and “Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?”

But then it’s not been a good day for George, having already launched friendly fire against Boris Johnson by attacking the Tory London mayor’s own policy of an amnesty for illegal immigrants.

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Mark Pack

Poll surge continues: is this 2003 or 1974?

By Mark Pack | Sat 17th April 2010 - 8:22 pm

“I will only really believe it when I see it in print!” – so read a text message to me from one of the party’s senior campaign strategists after news started spreading about the latest poll:

BPIX/Mail on Sunday: Lib Dem 32%, Conservative 31%, Labour 28%
ComRes/Independent/Mirror: Conservative 31%, Lib Dem 29%, Labour 27%
ICM/Sunday Telegraph: Conservative 34%, Labour 29%, Lib Dem 27%
OnePoll/People: Lib Dem 33%, Conservative 27%, Labour 23%
YouGov/Sunday Times: Conservative 33%, Labour 30%, Lib Dem 29%

The YouGov poll gives Nick Clegg the eye-watering personal ratings on doing well/badly as party leader of 81% versus 9%. At the height of the Iraq …

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Also posted in Polls | Tagged and | 46 Comments
Mark Pack

Daily Mail: big boost for Lib Dems in poll – but editorial line even more striking

By Mark Pack | Sat 17th April 2010 - 9:16 am

There’s straight-forward good news for the Liberal Democrats in today’s Daily Mail:

A Harris poll for the Daily Mail, the first in-depth survey of the public response, showed him decisively ahead of David Cameron and Gordon Brown on measures of energy, honesty and strength.

The survey of over 1,000 people who watched the clash found 32 per cent intended to back Mr Clegg’s LibDems – level with the Tories – and just 26 per cent Labour.

Those poll results are dramatic – and reflect what we’ve seen in other polls too. But most striking is the Daily Mail’s …

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Stephen Tall

The #GE2010 Golden Dozen: pick of the Lib Dem blogs (16th April)

By Stephen Tall | Sat 17th April 2010 - 12:35 am

During the election campaign Lib Dem Voice is each day highlighting six blog-posts from the Lib Dem Blogs Aggregator which we think are well worth reading. But as the last 24 hours has been a little bit special, we’re doubling that to a golden dozen today.

Here’s our pick from 16th April …

Nick Clegg wins last night’s Leader Debate (Lynne Featherstone)
“It can be different,” says Nick.

Did you see a debate? (Malcolm Gladwell)
Not everyone enjoyed it: “I wasn’t happy with this debate. I felt we were getting hundreds of soundbites that came so thick and fast that none really meant …

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Mark Pack

YouGov puts Lib Dems second, all three parties within margin of error

By Mark Pack | Fri 16th April 2010 - 10:16 pm

Time to say, “Oh sod it” to the usual rule on The Voice of not reporting individual polls on headline voting intentions:

Conservative: 33%
Liberal Democrat: 30%
Labour: 28%
Others: 9%

Fieldwork: 15-16 April.

The last time the party was this high in the polls was after Sarah Teather’s victory in the Brent East by-election, when YouGov made it C32, L31, LD30 and ICM had all three parties tied on 31%.

The next round of phone calls between party press officers and the media could be quite fun. What was that about giving the third-placed party less media coverage?

Of course, in the past poll surges have …

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Mark Pack

First election debate: winners and losers

By Mark Pack | Fri 16th April 2010 - 9:35 pm

Now the dust is starting to settle after the first debate, who are the winners and losers – aside from the party leaders?

Winner – liberalism
Loser – hostility to foreigners

Praising some aspects of immigration, talking about no like-for-like replacement of Trident, pledging to scrap tuition fees, promising to cut taxes for most by raising taxes for the very rich – Nick Clegg won the debate not by abandoning policies for some  mushy middle ground, but by sticking to core liberal beliefs. Those beliefs were carefully wrapped in language and arguments designed to be appeal to a wide audience – but …

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Stephen Tall

Four celebrity ‘twumbs-ups’ for Nick Clegg #iagreewithnick

By Stephen Tall | Fri 16th April 2010 - 3:45 pm

Here are four approving sleb tweets spotted during the course of the debate …

    John Cleese (comedy god)

    Well, well, well. First leaders debate, and LibDems do so well. Good
    luck to them.

    Phillip Schofield (TV presenter)

    It’ll be fascinating to see how that’s altered the polls. I’m thinking Mr Clegg hasn’t done himself any harm tonight #leadersdebate

    Graham Linehan (writer, Father Ted, Black Books and The IT Crowd)

    Is it just me or is Clegg storming this? #leadersdebate

    Chris Addison (comedian, star of The Thick of It)

    Few would have recognised Nicholas Cleggolas before this evening. This is hugely significant for him, whoever ‘wins’.

…

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Stephen Tall

Pollwatch Day 10 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 20%, Lab 31%, Tories 38%

By Stephen Tall | Fri 16th April 2010 - 3:25 pm

Amidst all the excitement of the debate we neglected to report the latest two polls released last night:

    YouGov in the Sun … CON 37%(-4), LAB 31%(-1), LIB DEM 22%(+4).
    TNS BMRB … CON 36%(-2), LAB 33%(nc), LIB DEM 22%(+3).

Still no change in Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ average – but I suspect that may change in the next day or so …

    Con 38% (n/c), Lab 31% (+1%), Lib Dem 20% (n/c)

It’s interesting to see the effect of the debate on public perceptions. YouGov asked how much confidence voters had …

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Also posted in Polls | 5 Comments
Stephen Tall

LDVideo Leaders Debate Special: Nick Clegg’s opening and closing statements

By Stephen Tall | Fri 16th April 2010 - 11:20 am

Want to see Nick Clegg’s opening and closing statements from last night’s televised election debate – well, here you go …

Nick Clegg’s 60-second opening statement in the first ever British televised general election debate

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