Category Archives: Op-eds

Alan Kestner

New effective healthcare policies on the breadline?

By Alan Kestner | Mon 8th July 2024 - 4:12 pm

During these marvelous times for the Liberal Democrats we must capitalize on our success! Having always been the party with creative and effective ideas we must push the new government for the following:

Question: Reforming the NHS with no extra cash?

Answer: Reduce the need for preventable and expensive care in the first place by
making people healthier.

How: Introduce a supermarket-like loyalty card with healthy food discounts.

Cloud Cuckoo Land?

No – effecting change using the stick rarely works, but nudging or incentivizing does. Supermarkets get us to remain with them instead of switching, by offering discounts on their products using loyalty cards. Could the Government take a leaf out of their book, make the population healthier and consequently save money on health care?

How would the scheme work?

Obesity followed by diabetes occurs widely in society at the moment and costs the NHS billions. The poorest in society are particularly susceptible because they either can’t afford healthy food or don’t have the time or incentive to cook healthily. If this group could be targeted with a government loyalty card scheme which offered sufficient discounts on healthy foods to make them affordable, this would kill two birds with one stone: help to alleviate food poverty in low income families and at the same time nudge people towards more healthy eating.

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Suzanne Fletcher

Stopping the boats but what about the people?

By Suzanne Fletcher | Mon 8th July 2024 - 1:12 pm

We are, of course, delighted to have a Home Secretary that has humanity and is a decent human being, unlike her predecessors who “shall not be named”.

We are, of course, delighted that the wicked Rwanda Bill is going to be scrapped, and the remaining detainees threatened with being sent to Rwanda released and on bail for now.
However it is all very well to concentrate on Stop the Boats, but what about those who then are stuck in Northern France?

“New border security command” sounds good, securing our borders. But exactly who from?

There are thousands of people (yes people, not statistics or …

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Caron Lindsay

How did the Lib Dems do for gender balance this election?

By Caron Lindsay | Mon 8th July 2024 - 11:15 am

For the first time, the number of women elected to Parliament has topped 40%. As Lyanne Nicholl, the Chief of 50:50 Parliament wrote on the Huffington Post,

This truly is a historic day – a 50:50 Parliament is now no longer a dot on the horizon, it is beaming into view and – with a fair wind – we can even dare to hope to reach equal representation in the next election.

We are not there yet, 40% is not 50%, but to potentially have a government with more women MPs than ever before and the potential of a gender balanced cabinet; that is exciting and cause for celebration. This is a great day for women’s representation.

Gender balance has not always been a positive story for the Liberal Democrats. It’s only in the last Parliament that we have ever had a majority of women MPs. At the start of the Parliament, we had 4 men and 7 women. By the end, this had risen to 5 men and 10 women. How are we doing now that we have an extra 57 people in our Parliamentary party? After all, the last time we had 57 MPs, our number of women was in single figures.

The answer is not too bad. We have 32 women in the 2024 Parliament, which makes up 44% of the total. This is not too far off Labour, who have 46% women and it’s great Keir Starmer has appointed a record number of women to his Cabinet. I have to admit a small tear in my eye as Angela Rayner walked up Downing Street. Whatever political differences I have with her, I am so happy to see someone with experience of social housing and of being a care worker in charge of housing and employment rights.

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Nicholas Belfitt

Lib Dem fightback completed! But what next….?

By Nicholas Belfitt | Mon 8th July 2024 - 9:47 am

Ten years ago, in 2014, I joined the Liberal Democrats. Shortly after, I witnessed the political collapse of the party. It was a sobering time, and I recall a few weeks later when Tim Farron took over and revitalized the party with the message of a Liberal Democrat fightback. The directive was clear: our party must survive, and we must fight to become a competent force once again. Thus, the Liberal Democrat fightback began.

Unfortunately, these were dark years. Despite our best efforts, we lost several key battles, including Brexit, and suffered significant setbacks in 2017 and 2019. By 2019, I even began to doubt whether our party would ever return to prominence or remain on the fringes forever. However, after ten years of relentless struggle from the sidelines, we are back. Under Ed Davey’s leadership and the hard work of our party members, we have not only secured a record number of seats but also rebuilt our liberal movement. The Liberal Democrat fightback is complete. But what now?

Now is the time to celebrate, to enjoy the moment of this election, and to recognize the success of our party’s machinery, the individuals, the volunteers, the workers, and everyone who is part of the party. However, with success also comes the responsibility to identify areas for improvement. While this victory, marked by our impressive seat numbers, demonstrates that target seating works, it also reveals a concerning issue that must be addressed in the next five years.

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Mark Valladares

Welcome to my day: 8 July 2024 – have you not been entertained?

By Mark Valladares | Mon 8th July 2024 - 7:30 am

Good heavens, wasn’t Thursday night fun? It’s been nearly twenty years since I enjoyed an election night that much, given that even 2010 was bittersweet as a series of seats slipped out of our grasp just when we thought that a massive surge was on.

Watching Conservative MP after Conservative MP lose their seats was reassurance that the British public can’t be fooled all of the time, taking the opportunity to find imaginative ways to defeat a discredited and disgraced administration. And to see so many new faces, many of whom will be new even to our own membership, can only inspire a new generation of activists to push on in next year’s local elections, both to shore up our support in the gained seats, but to create a new set of potential targets for 2029.

Because times are about to get interesting. Labour are going to have to do something similar in those seats that they gained on 4 July, especially those in rural areas such as Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket or Suffolk Coastal in my neighbourhood, where they won despite the almost total absence of a local government base. We know that their activist base is predominantly urban, but does success breed a new activist base for them beyond the old heartlands?

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The Voice

Simon Foster’s campaign photos

By The Voice | Sun 7th July 2024 - 6:45 pm

The ever energetic and creative Simon Foster has been putting up amazing displays of stakeboards across the South Central region. He has sent us six of his best. Enjoy:

Local residents give their thanks in Winchester


Newly elected Cllr Richard Murphy (left) who won a district council election with a majority of over 1,000 on the night
with Danny Chambers MP (right)

A shrine to Liberalism which appeared in Eve of poll next to the strongest green display, right in the heart of Winchester.

The Shield Wall at an Eastleigh committee room. The people of Wessex were “invited to rise up in revolt at their evil Tory overlords. It worked!

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Caron Lindsay

Pink News highlights trans and non binary candidates – and makes some notable omissions

By Caron Lindsay | Sun 7th July 2024 - 2:15 pm

While it was great to see Pink News highlight the trans and non binary candidates across various parties who stood on Thursday, it was disappointing that they left some high profile trans and non binary candidates out.

Our Chris Northwood is a councillor in Manchester. She stood in Manchester Central. She has written several articles for us, on issues like the importance of storytelling, the Cass Review and how we could fund a Universal Basic Income. She is also a member of the Party’s Federal Council.

From the Manchester Lib Dems website:

Chris is standing in Manchester Central. Working in Manchester’s tech sector for over a decade, Chris was elected to Manchester City Council as the city’s first openly trans councillor in May 2023, and is the deputy leader of the Manchester Liberal Democrats.

In addition to her council role and local campaigning activity, she also works for a national charity as a software engineer, building websites that provide support to those in need.

Fellow candidate Amanda Clark commended Chris’s help and support on Twitter:

Absolutely and an excellent ALDC mentor…learnt loads from her and was very proud to stand up for trans rights at all my hustings.

The article also missed out prominent non binary Lib Dem candidate Adrian Hyyryylainen Trett. They stood in Old Bexley and Sidcup and are a former Chair of LGBT+ Lib Dems, an international campaigner for LGBT+ rights.

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Andrew Chandler

How I spent Polling Day

By Andrew Chandler | Sun 7th July 2024 - 12:15 pm

During a very long and miserable campaign by both Labour and the Tories, we Liberal Democrats had to resort to some pretty inventive campaign stunts to grab national attention. These efforts  aimed to inject some much-needed positivity into the campaign.

Finally, Election Day arrived, A momentous occasion where the collective voices of millions shape our nation’s future. Where employees (the politicians) meet their managers for their performance review and interviews (the voters). This is my election diary.

Morning:

I was jolted awake by my dad’s cat, whom I am currently looking after.  Begrudgingly, I got out of bed and fed her her second meal of the morning. To unwind, I turned on the news, played some music, and tidied up my dad’s house. The day felt sluggish, and the anticipation of the election results only made time crawl slower. I couldn’t wait for the government to change.

Afternoon:

Feeling restless, I ventured out for a long walk to my local polling station. On my way back, I chatted with various people.  I noticed a concerning trend: many in Stoke-on-Trent Central were planning to vote for Reform UK. Discussions often centred on Farage’s rhetoric about the NHS, immigration, and “woke culture.”

Stoke has a troubling history with far-right politics, having seen the BNP hold council seats and UKIP’s Paul Nuttall come second in the 2016 by-election. Despite its low immigrant population, people feel threatened by immigration.  Stoke’s managed decline since the 1980s of poverty, drug addiction, inadequate housing, and council mismanagement is evident. Unlike Liverpool or Manchester, it hasn’t seen significant regeneration. I remember a local headline from my teenage years promising EU-funded regeneration that never materialised. It worries me that Reform UK’s divisive politics are gaining traction here.

Back home, I recorded a few videos and decided what to wear for the count.

Evening: Voting

I arrived at the polling station, where a clerk reminded me to have my ID ready. I confidently reached into my pocket, only to realise I’d left it at home. Embarrassed, I raced back to fetch it.

10 pm: Exit Poll

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 7th July 2024 - 10:45 am

United States

It’s official: The United States judicial system is no longer independent.

And by destroying its independence the Supreme Court has knocked away one of the main pillars of American democracy and left the constitution’s carefully structured and revered system of checks and balances heavily politicised and largely controlled by the executive.

Of course, the US judicial system was already heavily politicised. But the Supreme Court took its role as the top court seriously enough to avoid political judgements. No longer.

America’s legal system is based on English Common Law. Many of the structures were determined by the great 18th-century British jurist William …

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Richard Kemp

We need to move from the shires and suburbs into the deprived areas of the UK

By Richard Kemp | Sat 6th July 2024 - 2:30 pm

No matter how successful we have been in the many General Elections that I have been involved in since my first in 1970 there has always been someone who, after the elections, says, ….”but!” So, it might as well be me! In fact, let me correct my own first sentence. For the first time since 1970 I have not been involved in the General Election at all. Convention in Liverpool is that for the year that you are in office the Lord Mayor plays no part in politics so that they can act as the only member of the council able to speak in Purdah periods but also, as with the Speaker, can be neutral throughout the year.

For most of my political life I have been involved in the school of hard politics, which is Liverpool, but it could be any other rough, tough, urban core city or borough. Although I represent a reasonably affluent area now, the fabulous Penny Lane Ward, for much of my time on the council I represented difficult inner-city areas. My lament through the whole of this period has been that the Liberals and then Liberal Democrats have been a party of the suburbs and shires. A quick look at the map of where Lib Dems took seats on Thursday will see that this has not changed at all.

I do understand the need for targeting and believe that this policy was absolutely necessary to ensure that we came back from the political wilderness to enable the Party as a whole to be relevant to the law-making processes of the nation as a whole. But we have now achieved that and my plea to Ed Davey and our other leaders is that now is the time to be bold and push for real representation in our major cities.

Now I know that we are not entirely unrepresented in urban areas at local level. We control Hull and have significant and growing numbers of councillors in places like Sheffield, Newcastle and a growing re-energised presence in my own city of Liverpool. But over the whole of my 50 years in Liverpool we have had to do everything ourselves and fight a poorly funded urban guerilla warfare against Labour’s well-funded mighty machines.

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Lord William Wallace

Didn’t we have a good national campaign!

By Lord William Wallace | Sat 6th July 2024 - 12:17 pm

Few of us dreamed that we could come out of this election campaign with over 70 seats.  The willingness of Liberal Democrats across the country to travel to target seats, the high quality of the local campaign organisation when we got there, determined efforts to raise more money than most local campaigns have ever thought of before, all helped to maximise our gains.  But we must also give full credit to the high quality and sustained consistency of the national campaign.

I expect that many Liberal Democrats – naturally argumentative, with strong opinions of our own – have had their doubts about aspects of our national strategy over the past year or more: a focus on sewage and water pollution rather than Europe or Liberal values, a ruthless approach to target seat selection and to the demands placed upon them, stunts and photo-opportunities that attracted attention but didn’t seem sufficiently serious. 

Well, the results have justified the hard discipline our central organisation imposed.  Concentrated campaigning harvested tactical votes and used our limited funds effectively.  Ed Davey’s standing in the polls rose as Sunak’s fell; he was seen to be the most human and approachable of the three main party leaders.  And as to sewage: the issue of water pollution ‘cut through’, as the phrase goes, to a point where much of the Thames Valley has turned orange.

Liberal Democrats outside London may grasp only with difficulty how much smaller our professional staff is than those who have thronged Conservative and Labour headquarters in their hundreds: extensive media and digital teams, multiple fundraisers, ranks of policy advisers, organisers for national and local campaigns.  Our headquarters has unavoidably remained small, within our limited budget – with its staff probably paid a good deal less than elsewhere, and helped by volunteers.  I think I have had half our media team in my Lords office once or twice – and it’s not a large office!  

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Caron Lindsay

That went pretty well

By Caron Lindsay | Fri 5th July 2024 - 10:15 am

Anticappointment is a concept coined by Toby Hadoke, a prominent Doctor Who commentator, to describe how Doctor Who fans approach a new series. They worry that they are not going to like it, even though they probably will. As a Liberal Democrat it fits well with how we approach elections.

Over forty years of disappointing election results has made me very cautious about predicting how many MPs we will end up with. I eventually decided to predict 32 MPs, pretty much our main target list. By the time polling day arrived, I knew that even though I was trying to limit my expectations, I’d be devastated if that was all we won.

But it wasn’t. We have 71 MPs. 71. SEVENTY ONE.  By the time I’ve finished writing this, it could be 72. Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire, in essence much of Charles Kennedy’s old seat, is recounting and I hear our folks our chipper.

Here’s Ed Davey exuberantly dad dancing and loads of Lib Dems singing Sweet Caroline. I always loved that song, but this has written it on my heart forever.

It’s a brilliant night for us. The best we have known in the history of our party by some margin.

Since Mary’s last update, we have added Chesham and Amersham to our list of technical gains. Sarah Green won it in a by-election in 2021, and few expected her to hang on to it. But she did. With a majority of around 5,500.  We also held on to our other three by-election gains. Helen Morgan’s vote in North Shropshire practically had to be weighed as she romped to a 15,300 majority. Incredible to think that in 2019 and forever before this was a rock solid Tory seat.  The one people were really worried about was Honiton and Sidmouth, the re-boundaried half of Tiverton and Honiton, won by Richard Foord in June 2o22. But Richard smashed it, beating Tory Simon Jupp by around 7000 votes. As an added bonus, the Tiverton part of the by-election seat was won by our Rachel Gilmour.  Sarah Dyke also held onto Glastonbury and Somerton by 6,500 votes. The icing on that cake was Anna Sabine winning the other half of that by-election seat for us.

We also held on to all the MPs we won in 2017.

There’s always one result that breaks your heart, though. Poor Paul Follows had been widely anticipated to beat Chancellor Jeremy Hunt in Godalming and Ash. He just fell short by 800 votes.

I am thrilled beyond measure to see Vikki Slade finally elected in Mid Dorset and North Poole. After four attempts to win the seat, she made it, with a majority of just under 1400.

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Paul Walter

Spare a thought for William Hague…

By Paul Walter | Fri 5th July 2024 - 9:04 am

From the University of Bath website:

On the coalition negotiations in May 2010, William Hague is reported to have told his wife, Ffion: ‘I think I’ve just killed the Liberal Democrats.’

Well, William, it seems we have come back to life.

Some personal reflections on the campaign, if I may:

Firstly, I never thought we’d win Newbury outside of a by-election again after dear David Rendel was our MP from 1993 to 2005. During the campaign it became clear that the Tories had, more or less, given up. Two Tory stakeboards were spotted. They didn’t have a stakeboard campaign – this from the party who used to put up hundreds of posters in fields full of sheep throughout the constituency. The Tory GOTV effort on polling day was virtually non-existent. But well done to Lee Dillon and the whole Newbury Lib Dem team for years and years of hard work to get Lee into the House of Commons! It gives me goose-bumps just to say that.

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Mary Reid

And finally .. or maybe not

By Mary Reid | Fri 5th July 2024 - 7:09 am

A roundup of results and those we are waiting for.

North East Fife – Wendy Chamberlain returns to Parliament, with a 13k majority.

Witney – Charlie Maynard is our winner here.

Esher & Walton – Monica Harding takes over from Dominic Raab, and with a 12k majority

Frome & East Somerset – Anna Sabine is our champion here over the Tories

South Devon – (was overlooked earlier, apologies) Caroline Voaden was our hero here.

Mid Dunbartonshire – This was a rare gain from the SNP, and with a 10k majority, thanks to Susan Murray.

Guildford – another previous Lib Dem constituency returning home. This time with Zoe Franklin and her team.

Woking – the blue wall is shattered again, to the tune of an 11k majority, putting Will Forster in the Commons.

Newbury – again one from earlier, and so good to see it back in contention. Lee Dillon is our guy here.

South Cotswolds – well done to Roz Savage.

Surrey Heath – Michael Gove’s old seat, although sadly he didn’t give us the opportunity to defeat him directly.  Al Pinkerton made a decent gain here.

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Paul Walter

Thoughts from the ground in Newbury

By Paul Walter | Fri 5th July 2024 - 4:36 am

I’ve been involved in general election campaigns in Newbury since 1987.

I haven’t dared make a forecast about whether we might win the seat this time.

But on the ground, something extraordinary happened. The Tories gave up. They didn’t put any posters up (there were just a couple isolated Tory posters where individuals put up old posters on their property). And on polling day, there was only a very thin Tory knocking up operation in evidence.

Fingers crossed for Lee and team. The Newbury result is due at around 7am.

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Paul Walter

We’ve won Wokingham with a majority of over 8k

By Paul Walter | Fri 5th July 2024 - 4:17 am

The outstanding LibDem results are coming so thick and fast it is difficult to keep up. I’m just going “Blimey – we’ve won XXX with a majority of YYY thousands” all the time.

But just hold on, for a moment, to the Wokingham result. We won with a majority of over 8k!!! Well done Clive Jones and team! This is the result of huge effort over many years!

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Paul Walter

We appear to have gone to sleep and woken up in Lib Dem heaven

By Paul Walter | Fri 5th July 2024 - 4:02 am

I’ve woken up after a four hour sleep.

The size of our majorities (eg Cheadle – well done Tom and team!) is just extraordinary. And we are appearing to win seats where I didn’t know we had targets.

Chichester for example. We won it with a majority of over 12k. Looking at my target seats list, we overturned a Tory majority of over 19k and only 4 out of the 13 pre-election MRP surveys said we would win it. So it was very low down on our list of expectations.

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Mary Reid

Tales from the campaign

By Mary Reid | Fri 5th July 2024 - 12:48 am

Yet more waiting until the key results, from our perspective, start to come in.

So let’s fill in the time with reflections on the campaign. Thanks to Andy Boddington for this photo of farmer and Shropshire Councillor Richard Huffer who finds a different way to draw attention to the campaign for Matthew Green, PPC for South Shropshire.

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Caron Lindsay

Scottish exit poll comes with a large pinch of salt

By Caron Lindsay | Thu 4th July 2024 - 11:35 pm

The Scottish constituency breakdown of the exit poll should be taken with a fairly large pinch of salt. In 2019, it predicted we would lose all of our seats north of the border and we won 4. The MRP models don’t generally do Scotland that well.

This time, it predicts that we are on 5 our current 4 plus Mid Dumbartonshire. That would coincide with our own hopes and, I think, backs up what we have picked up on the ground during the campaign. So, fingers crossed  that is accurate.

Labour are predicted to gain 29 seats, bringing them to 30, and the Tories are supposed to double their seats from 6 to 12. The SNP are predicted to do worse than even the most pessimistic predictions, with just 10 seats, down from 48.

However, it seems unlikely that the Tories will double their seats, least of all themselves who are doing a bit of expectation management on this. Nobody really believes that their current Westminster leader Stephen Flynn will lose his Aberdeen South seat to them, a key target for Labour. Pete Wishart would also lose his Perth seat to the Conservatives.  However, there may be a return for Stephen Gethins, beaten by Wendy Chamberlain in North East Fife in 2019 and now standing in Arbroath.

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Mary Reid

Ed Davey: Lib Dems on course for best results in a century

By Mary Reid | Thu 4th July 2024 - 10:45 pm

Ed Davey made these comments after the polls closed:

The Liberal Democrats are on course for our best results in a century, thanks to our positive campaign with health and care at its heart.

I am humbled by the millions of people who backed the Liberal Democrats to both kick the Conservatives out of power and deliver the change our country needs.

Every Liberal Democrat MP will be a strong local champion for their community standing up for the NHS and care. Whether you voted for us or not, we will work day in and day out and we will not let you down.

He also pointed out that if the Liberal Democrat make 29 gains, bringing them to 37 seats, this would be the highest number of seats gained by the party at a General Election since 1923.

If the exit poll is accurate then we could smash that.

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Mary Reid

It’s almost all over

By Mary Reid | Thu 4th July 2024 - 9:30 pm

So how has polling day been for you? I am sure I am not the only person who got sunburnt while telling at a polling station.

Talking of which, did anyone mention dogs at polling stations? I had a conversation with this beautiful Pyrenean Mountain Dog while taking numbers.

We now wait for the exit polls, which have been pretty accurate in previous elections. To keep you entertained I thought I might remind you of what happened to a previous editor of Lib Dem Voice, Stephen Tall, back in 2015.

You may have noticed that the members of the Lib Dem Voice team have been reticent to make predictions about how many seats we will win. That’s because we don’t want to follow in Stephen’s footsteps – quite literally.

He pledged to run naked down Whitehall if the party gained fewer than 20 seats in the General Election in 2015.  Here is a reminder of what happened next…

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The Voice

Go for it!

By The Voice | Thu 4th July 2024 - 8:56 am

Embed from Getty Images

Our warmest wishes go to everyone out campaigning today.

If you are a candidate realistically hoping that you will be an MP tomorrow, then go for it (and stop reading political blogs for the time being!).

If you are a candidate with little chance of winning, then keep cheerful – we owe you a huge thank you for giving so much to this campaign and keeping the Lib Dem diamonds bright.

If you are an activist or supporter who will be spending the day door knocking, delivering, telling or doing those all vital back room tasks, then you are the real heroes of this campaign. Enjoy the day, and be pleased that you have participated in an election that we will be talking about for many years to come.

You won’t be hearing much from the Lib Dem Voice team during the day today – we are all a bit busy. But we will be offering news and commentary throughout the night so do check in after 10pm and maybe share stories with us at [email protected].

We should also remember the many council by-elections taking place today as well. The news about those contests may get buried under the national news, but please let us know and we will highlight what we can.

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The Voice

It’s Eve of Poll. How are you going to help Lib Dems win tomorrow?

By The Voice | Wed 3rd July 2024 - 1:21 pm

It’s hard to believe that it’s 6 weeks since Rishi Sunak stood in the rain in Downing Street to fire the starting gun to the General Election campaign.

Since then, there hasn’t been much movement in the polls, apart from a few points up for us, sparked by the brilliant, positive, incredible images and messages coming from our leader. What a time to come in to the form of your life, Ed Davey!

This party has fought our best campaign for years at every possible level. Our media spokespeople have been amazing. Ed has shown in the debates, Question Times and interviews that there is a huge amount of substance behind the style. He has tackled tough questions head on, with honesty and humility.

It’s all getting real now. Tomorrow, people in our target seats will have to clear a path through their Lib Dem leaflets to their door and go out to vote. Some will still be wrestling with their choice even as they stand in the voting booth with the pencil in hand. We need to be in their heads with our positive messages at that point. That is why it is so important that we get our eve of polls and good mornings out and knock on as many doors and make as many phone calls as possible.

And it’s why it is really really important that every single ounce of our efforts goes into seats where we are in the running.

If you need convincing of this, here’s the North East Fife result from 2017:

Stephen Gethins Scottish National Party 13,743 32.9% -8.1%
Elizabeth Riches Liberal Democrat 13,741 32.9% 1.5%
Tony Miklinski Conservative 10,088 24.1% 7.8%
Rosalind Garton Labour 4,026 9.6% 1.9%
Mike Scott-Hayward Independent 224 0.5% 0.5%

Two votes in it. Don’t let that happen again.

And even this May 97 more votes could have given us control of 3 more Councils.

What you do and where you do it on Polling day really matters. If you can’t travel, please think about making calls from home – or from holiday.

The messages that the Tories are putting out might seem bizarre to us. Their “letter from July 2044” aimed at bringing Reform voters back on board is probably the weirdest bit of literature we’ve ever seen, but we are not their target audience.

Mel Stride’s extraordinary comments this morning that you need enough Tories around to scrutinise Labour are very strange indeed. The only thing that the Tories will be capable of scrutinising over the next five years will be each other, with menaces. They are a party riven with irreconcilable differences and they will make a load of ferrets in a sack seem like the best of friends.

If you want a really good opposition to Labour, you will need a coherent, confident, capable party to keep their feet to the fire. So you obviously need lots of Liberal Democrats.

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Les Tarr

Does AI really pose a risk to democracy?

By Les Tarr | Wed 3rd July 2024 - 9:46 am

On Thursday the 27th of June, Channel 4’s Dispatches programme broadcast an episode called ‘Can AI Steal Your Vote?’

The premise was that 12 undecided households were told they were going to see some social media content that parties had been working on but had not released yet. First hook being they would be told something that others did not know, instant buy-in for most people.

What they were not told was that this was an experiment to see how people could be manipulated to vote in specific way based on information they were presented with. Any experimental social scientists might question …

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Mark Valladares

ALDE Party Council, Vilnius 2024 (part 2) – a masterclass in agenda planning…

By Mark Valladares | Mon 1st July 2024 - 12:50 pm

* Welcome to the second part of my report of the weekend’s ALDE Party Council. Part 1 can be found here…

Having retired relatively early, I was bright-eyed and bushy-tailed for an early start the next morning. In truth, as I’ve noted before, Council is often a bit of a bureaucracy session, offering Council delegates an opportunity to scrutinise the work of the Bureau. I tend to the view that Council isn’t very good at that, unless something upsets them. After all, most Council delegates are there to debate ideas, not assess the value of adding €50,000 to one budget …

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 30th June 2024 - 10:25 am

United States

Unedifying train crash. That is possibly the most charitable portray of President Joe Biden’s performance in Thursday night’s debate. The 81-year-old candidate had a simple task: Don’t look old and expose Trump as the convicted felon and serial liar that he is. He failed.

The result is that Joe Biden now faces a crushing tsunami of party and public opinion to perform his final act of public service:  step aside and let a younger Democratic leader shoulder the job of preventing a dangerous demagogue from returning to the White House.

The problem is that there is no mechanism for allowing him to do so. The US constitution does not specify how presidential candidates are chosen. In fact, the founding fathers were dead set against the creation of political parties which they condemned as “factionalism.”

But human nature being what it is political parties quickly emerged and politicians hived off into camps labelled Republican, Democrat, Whig, Federalist, Nativists, Progressives…

From the early years of the 19th century until relatively modern times, the party machinery in each state would select delegates to attend a national convention where a presidential candidate would emerge from a series of knock-out ballots.

The first state primaries were not held until 1901 when Florida broke ranks with convention. Between 1901 and 1968 only twelve states held primaries which pledged their convention delegates to a particular candidate. Then came the chaos of the 1968 Chicago Democratic National Convention with delegates deadlocked while anti-Vietnam War demonstrators rioted outside.

To avoid a repetition of this unedifying spectacle the Democratic Party leadership decided to extend the primary system. The Republican Party followed suit. By 1992 Democrats had primaries in 40 states and Republicans in 39 and presidential conventions had been converted from a week of back-room horse trading and multiple ballots to a coronation party.

If Biden steps aside then the Democratic Party will have to revert to the pre-1968 format at its convention in (ironically) Chicago, on 19-22 August. The problem is that there are few – if any – people alive today who attended an old style nominating convention. Old rule books will need to be pulled out or archives, dusted off and studied thoroughly.

They have just over a month to prepare, and that is if Biden decides to hand in his notice today. Presidential contenders have the same time frame to start securing delegates’ support. And then, assuming all goes well on the night in Chicago, the party has only three months to unite behind a new candidate and persuade the American electorate that their choice is better than a lying convicted felon.

France

French voters troop to the polls on Sunday for the first round of parliamentary elections that are likely to open the door to the country’s far-right.

The latest opinion polls put Marine Le Pen’s National Rally well ahead with 37 percent of the vote. Not enough for the absolute majority so it will probably need to form a coalition with the Gaullist Les Republicains (eight percent) and some of the smaller parties (five percent). President Macron’s centrist Ensemble Alliance Renaissance lags far behind at 19.6 percent.

But a huge fly in the French political ointment is the 29 percent who say they will vote for the far-left New Popular Front led by former Trotskyist Jean-Luc Melenchon. It appears that the unpalatable choice for French voters is between the extremes of left and right.

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Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Putin’s War Conundrum

By Tom Arms | Sat 29th June 2024 - 9:33 am

Putin can’t afford to stop fighting. To do so would mean either crashing the economy or handing it over to the Chinese. But then the Chinese might end up controlling it anyway.

Russia is now a war economy. Six percent of GDP and 40 percent of the government budget is spent on “special operations” In Ukraine. Millions are employed at top dollar jobs in armaments factories that have sprung up over the past two years.

The lives of Russian soldiers have been commoditised. Families with a dead son receive $53,800. An injured son costs Putin’s Treasury $32,280. It is estimated that so far the war has cost $18 billion in compensation alone.

War is the most financially unproductive activity known to mankind. With what it costs to build a missile you can construct a building which can be used as a school to educate future generations or a factory to produce goods for export. When the missile blow up it is gone. And so is the building which it blew up and the people who can rebuild it.

But in the short-term war can be good for the economy. That is the case in Russia today. Putin was recently able to boast that at 2.6 percent, the Russian economy was growing faster than all the other European economies combined. But that growth must be set against inflation of seven percent – and rising – and interest rates at an unsustainable 16 percent in an effort to prevent runaway inflation.

Sanctions have contributed to the boom economy by forcing Russians to develop home grown alternatives, increase imports from Asian friends and the Global South, and/or pay inflated prices for Western goods imported through third-party intermediaries such as Turkey, the United Arab Emirates or Hong Kong. The growth may also be helped by the imposition of financial controls that make it impossible to take money out of the country.

That may, however, be coming to an end. President Joe Biden recently tightened the sanctions screw by expanding the powers of the US Treasury to allow it to cut off any banks in third countries deemed to be helping the Russian military-industrial complex. Turkish and UAE banks have already started cutting back on their facilities for Russian clients. Chinese banks are starting to follow suit, or insisting that all deals are made in Yuan.

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Sue Garden

Why the Lib Dem Manifesto has lifelong learning at its heart

By Sue Garden | Fri 28th June 2024 - 12:17 pm

It will come to no surprise to anyone that I wholeheartedly believe in the power of education. So when our manifesto was released last week, I was delighted to see such a keen focus on policies to support our wonderful yet undervalued FE colleges. For far too long our colleges have been underfunded and unsupported and the Lib Dem manifesto seeks to change this alongside highlighting the importance of lifelong learning.

In the manifesto, we pledge to review of further education funding, including the option of exempting colleges from VAT. FE funding compares extremely unfavourably with both university and school funding, with the Institute for Fiscal Studies highlighting that FE and skills saw the largest spending cuts across all areas of education since 2010, with college spending per student approximately 10% lower than 2010-2011 levels and adult skills spending 23% below 2009-2010 levels. Colleges also pay VAT, unlike schools and academies, and approximately £200 million could be reinvested back into the skills system and make a key difference in colleges ability to equip young people with the skills they need to succeed.

We also pledge to create new “Lifelong Skills Grants” which will give all adults £5000 to spend on education and training throughout their lives, with the aim to increase this to £10,000 in the future when public finances allow. This offers a clear differentiation from existing and promised government commitments through their Lifelong Learning Entitlement, because it is a grant, rather than a loan. We understand that for any adult deciding whether to make the plunge into learning that there is a myriad of considerations, the time to complete their studies, and the costs if they have to give up some hours at work. Additionally, most adults with families and financial responsibilities are loathe to take on more debt, even if it will lead to a better job with better pay. These grants will give adults an investment into their futures, that will lead to better success and growth for the nation.

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The Voice

This is why you need to help Lib Dem target seat candidates win

By The Voice | Wed 26th June 2024 - 9:19 am

With just 8 days to go before the election, our target seat candidates need the help of every single one of us between now and polling day.

They have a huge amount to do and the more people we can talk to between now and polling day, the better the chance we have of filling up those green benches and once again being the third party in the House of Commons. That will guarantee us more media coverage and Ed will get two questions to the Prime Minister every week.

Our target seat candidates have been campaigning at high intensity for years. Some of them have completely given up other work this year to concentrate full time on their campaigns. That is a huge personal sacrifice. But it’s what we need to do to win.

The last thing we need to wake up to on 5th July  is a string of near misses. Remember in the local elections, a handful more votes would have given us control of another 3 councils.

We know that the Conservatives are going to pull out all the stops in the last few days of the campaign to stop us winning. They are very worried about the scale of the losses we can inflict. On the For the Many Podcast last Friday, broadcaster Iain Dale said:

I hear on the grapevine that Conservative candidates in Conservative seats with a majority of, say 5000 or 6000,  they are all being re-deployed to seats which have a majority of say 15,000 or 20,000.

He confirmed to co-host Jacqui Smith that this included candidates who are defending their seats.

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Lord William Wallace

Look after your candidate

By Lord William Wallace | Tue 25th June 2024 - 10:50 am

This is a long campaign, with more than another week to go. We’re no doubt all getting a bit tired, but keyed up by the feeling that things are going very well in our target seats, and that Ed Davey is coming across as the most human and likeable of the contending leaders. But don’t forget the strain that an election places on parliamentary candidates. All of us need to care for our candidates, make sure that they eat regularly and sleep enough, are supported by others when campaigning – and thanked and cherished when the campaign ends.

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