Smithson’s view: A Hung Parliament? – Don’t bet on it

I asked a professional gambler recently – someone who made a decent tax-free living from his betting – if he could offer me some tips that I could follow. One of his suggestions, which he said had proved to be a sure-fire consistent money-earner, was to bet against the draw in cricket test matches.

He brought up a pile of statistics on his lap-top to show that the odds you can usually get on this option are better than the chances of it happening. The reason was simple – cricket punters have a long-standing record of over-estimating the chances of …

Posted in Op-eds | 10 Comments
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Boris Johnson: the truth is revealed

Yes, it’s the moment you have all been waiting for: the answer to our Boris Johnson quiz.

The puzzle was: what was the problem to which Boris Johnson thinks this is the solution:

I have an infallible solution. You go to Legoland. To be exact, you go to those deceptively simple whirly teacup things, and you subject the human body to the most extraordinary stresses and shears. Your teacup rotates in one direction. The teatray spins the other way.

And the answer?

If you have one of those babies that seems to prefer the womb to the terrors of the world, I have an

…

Posted in Humour and London | Tagged | 4 Comments

Clegg on mobility, Heath on MPs’ allowances

Earlier this week Nick Clegg gave a speech on social mobility:

I want to devolve power from the centre to communities and to individuals. I want to see local solutions applied to local problems, and I want to see the genius of grassroots innovation set free to drive up the standards of our public services, and deliver on the people’s priorities.

That does not mean an impotent state. Government will still have a role to play. Money must be allocated fairly to those delivering services, equality of access to public services must be guaranteed and core standards and entitlements must be firmly put

…

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Florida and South Carolina results: what do they mean?

John McCain: another win confirms his comback and gives him a chance as we head towards Super Tuesday, where 22 states coast-to-coast are up for grabs. His campaign still looks to be struggling to have the financial and organisational strength to fight on that much large stage, but he’s had an excellent run in with a series of victories giving his campaign a major boost.

Mitt Romney: his campaign will be disappointed to lose to McCain by a small margin – again – but will be hoping that a few early loses will be swept away into the curiosity corner of …

Posted in LDVUSA | 15 Comments

Nick Clegg interview with Guardian Online

When Nick Clegg took on the leadership of the Liberal Democrat party just six weeks ago, he promised to “at least” double the number of Liberal Democrat MPs within two general elections.

It was an ambitious pledge, particularly in this age of two-party politics.

But, sitting in an armchair in the corner of his new office after polishing off a piece of carrot cake lying half-eaten on his desk, Clegg looks confident and relaxed.

Read more here.

Posted in News | 14 Comments
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Mike German on postcode lotteries

Today’s Western Mail reports:

POLITICIANS need to feel comfortable with the much-maligned idea of “postcode lotteries” in public services, Welsh Lib-Dem leader Mike German says today.

The idea is the inevitable consequence of more “localised” education and health provision, he says – ideas that are gaining ground within the party and enthusiastically talked up by new UK leader Nick Clegg.

Read more here.

Posted in News | Tagged | 4 Comments

Liverpool Lib Dems hit back at ‘worst financially managed’ Council tag

The Guardian carries the fairly stark headline today, ‘Liverpool council bottom of league’, reporting the verdict of the Audit Commission that the unitary City Council is the worst financially managed local authority in England. Lib Dem Voice got in touch with Paul Clein, Lib Dem executive member for children’s services in Liverpool, to ask for his views. Here’s what he told us:

Liverpool’s poor ranking by the Audit Commission for financial management has some justification measured against the criteria used in their inspection regime. I would be first to concede that there is considerable room for improvement. However three significant

…

Posted in News | 8 Comments

Top of the Blogs: The Golden Dozen #49

Welcome to the 49th of our weekly round-ups from the Lib Dem blogosphere, featuring the seven most popular stories according to click-throughs from the Aggregator (20th-26th January), together with a hand-picked quintet you might otherwise have missed.

As next week marks The Golden Dozen’s half-century, it’s time to freshen things up – which means opening up the five personal choice postings selected (numbers 8-12) to LDV readers… So if there’s post which appears/ed on the Aggregator between the 27th January and 3rd Feburary and you think it deserves to be incuded in next week’s Golden Dozen, drop me a line at [email protected]. Self-nominations are allowed – but as there are only five slots available, I can’t guarantee inclusion.

Anyway here are the best-read posts this last week, in descending order:

Posted in Best of the blogs | 4 Comments

Event in Brent – ‘Freedom or Security, can we have both?’

Liberal Democrat Voice is currently running a poll, asking you how many days the Government should be allowed to detain people without charge . For anyone who cares about civil liberties this is a hot topic at the moment and its one of the issues to be debated this Thursday at a public meeting arranged by Sarah Teather MP.

Shami Chakrabarti, winner of LDV’s Liberal Voice of the Year 2007, and Director of Liberty, will be the principal speaker, along with a panel of other high-profile commentators and activists. The meeting will take place at the Willesden Green Library Centre …

Posted in News | 2 Comments

Tory MPs Derek Conway and Nigel Waterson in trouble

  1. One of Derek Conway’s constituents is not happy. Duncan Borrowman, that is.
  2. Nigel Waterson has been arrested for allegedly assaulting his children.
Posted in News | Tagged and | 6 Comments

Opinion: Choosing our Judges

Yesterday’s Guardian front page was plastered with images of white, male, privately educated, High Court judges selected for the bench, even after the introduction of new diversity measures.

The paper bemoans the lack of diversity, where are the women, the ethnic minorities? Let’s consider something radical here; could it be that those men are actually the best for the job, regardless of ethnicity?

Just because a judge might be a white male doesn’t mean he cannot have an appreciation of issues and views of minorities or of women; there are people he can ask for this information, and surely the most important thing for a high court judge is to know the letter and the spirit of the law and how to apply it? If everyone is supposed to be treated fairly and equally under the law, then a white-male, ethnic, religious or gender perspective should have no actual bearing on it? I accept that our world isn’t perfect and while we ought to strive for such a system we will never achieve it, yet if we need a white, black, male or female judge because each would apply the law differently, then haven’t we’ve discovered a flaw in our system that needs to be fixed?

Posted in Op-eds | 8 Comments

Labour flip-flops on single-sex NHS wards

Labour manifesto, 1997: “work towards the elimination of mixed-sex wards”

Labour health minister Lord Darzi (a practising surgeon), yesterday: “The only way we’re going to have single-sex wards within the NHS is to build the whole of the NHS into single rooms. That is an aspiration that cannot be met.”

Norman Lamb, Liberal Democrat Shadow Secretary of State for Health, isn’t too impressed: “This is an astonishing admission of failure on an issue of crucial importance to patients. The Government has flip-flopped on this manifesto commitment for over 10 years. We now have a clinician blowing the gaff on a political commitment …

Posted in News | Tagged | 9 Comments

London Mayor election update

  1. Evening Standard latest: Lee Jasper (aide to Ken Livingstone) admits £18,000 was improperly diverted. Police now investigating …
  2. … and as Lynne Featherstone points out, that makes five police investigations into allegations of financial misdeeds at City Hall and the London Development Agency (LDA). As Lynne says, once again there are also question marks over whether their press operation has been telling the full story.
  3. Political Betting casts reasonable doubt on the last YouGov Mayor poll (which put Brian Paddick on 8%, +1%): the sample size was just 240, which makes the margin of error +/- 6.5% – a very high

…

Posted in London | Tagged and | 8 Comments

Introducing Top of the Blogs: The Dirty Dozen #1

When I agreed to write this monthly round up of Labour and Tory blogging I said I would aim to “keep a balance between pointing to interesting postings that we Lib Dems may have missed and laughing at the folly of our opponents”.

So here goes.

Labour blogs

The Labour blogosphere is a strange place. Tory bloggers may often be barking mad, but there opinionated approach and lack of concern for the party line means that Liberal Democrat bloggers are likely to recognise them as kindred spirits however much we differ on policy.

Labour blogging does not feel like that. It seems that many …

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Tory MP faces suspension from Parliament (updated)

From the BBC:

Tory MP Derek Conway faces a 10-day suspension from the Commons after its standards watchdog said he paid his son too much from parliamentary allowances…

In its critical report, the committee ordered Mr Conway to repay “the overpaid bonus sums” of about £13,000 and pension contributions received by his son.

UPDATE: Benedict Brogan has an illuminating quote and some pretty pungent views on the situation on his blog whilst the weight of opinion on Conservative Home appears to be that he should have the Conservative whip withdrawn.

Posted in News | Tagged | 9 Comments

Thorpe’s advice to Clegg: don’t go into coalition

There’s an in-depth interview former Liberal party leader Jeremy Thorpe in today’s Guardian – focusing not on his past, but on the party’s future. Here’s the skinny:

On the Lib Dems helping form a coalition government:

I’d prefer Clegg not to go into coalition. He should keep the party a free agent, keep on opposing the government.”


On David Cameron:

Cameron is a phoney, a Thatcherite who is pretending to be progressive.”

On Gordon Brown:

Dour and unimpressive. Like Callaghan … You have to go back to Attlee to get a really good Labour PM.”

On proportional representation:

In the large rural areas, enormous constituencies, it is

…

Posted in News | 11 Comments

What did Boris Johnson mean about the teacups?

Don’t forget to place your guesses. Answer will be revealed on Wednesday…

Posted in Humour and London | Tagged | 1 Comment

Paddy speaks out on vetoed Afghan role

Here’s the text of the statement Paddy Ashdown issued yesterday, following news that Afghanistan’s government and its President, Hamid Karzai, had rejected the idea the former Lib Dem leader should become the UN’s special envoy:

Last night I informed the Secretary-General of the United Nations that I am withdrawing my name from consideration for the post of Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Afghanistan.

I strongly believe that there is an urgent need for proper co-ordination of the international effort on the ground in Afghanistan if that effort – in which so much is being invested, and which is so vital

…

Posted in Europe / International and News | Tagged | Leave a comment

Has the Mail on Sunday missed a story about Labour breaking the law on donations?

The story so far: Helen Grant has been selected by the Conservative Party to stand in Maidstone at the next general election, which is when current MP Ann Widdecombe is retiring.

The Mail on Sunday has a story reporting that although she told them she “always voted Conservative” she actually tried to be a Labour candidate for the 2006 Croydon council elections. (Update: further coverage on Iain Dale’s blog and on Conservative Home).

But what has caught my eye is the possibility of some undeclared donations, which – if that’s the case – would have involved the law being broken.

Posted in News | Tagged and | 11 Comments

Party shuffles: councillor quits Tories, Galloway quits Respect (sort of)

There were two pieces of party swapping this week:

  1. Stevenage Conservative councillor Marion Mason switched to UKIP.
  2. George Galloway quit Respect, announcing plans to run a new left-wing ticket for the London Assembly elections. At least, Respect said he’s quit the party, but he said he hasn’t quit the party. Which all things considered is no more farcical than the party holding two separate national conferences last November, one for each faction.
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What should an MP do if they sign an EDM? Encore

Well, well. It seems to be a trend.

First we had Labour MP David Anderson signing an EDM (Parliamentary petition) against something but voting for it in Parliament.

And now we have Labour MP Jim Dobbin who signed EDM 317: “That this House is concerned that the Government’s decision to withdraw funding from the institutions for equivalent or lower qualification students will have a disproportionate impact on the part-time sector in general and on specific institutions such as Birkbeck and the Open University…”

But when there was a vote in Parliament on the very same point what did he do? Well, having …

Posted in News and Parliament | Leave a comment

Vice President Oprah

In this not-altogether-serious clip from Letterman, Barack Obama gives his top ten campaign priorities.

And the top promise? Not just the a black person at the very top of America’s political system, but in news sure to depress John Edwards, he’d put Oprah Winfrey on the second rung down.

Posted in LDVUSA | Leave a comment

Something for the Weekend: My lovely horse

Welcome to January’s final Something for the Weekend, which comes this week from a kebab shop in Peckham. Fortunately it has wi-fi. And is hypothetical.

In the Something for the Weekend closet today: the smell of Barack Obama; the fetishes of a Labour MP; the women playing with balls; and more!

» Good Week

Saudi football supporterIt’s been a good week for the Prince Muhammad bin Fahd University’s female football team. They won a rare inter-college women’s football match in Saudi Arabia on penalties in front of a large female-only crowd in the university’s stadium.

According to Alarabiya.net:

The match is the biggest such event hosted by Prince Muhammad bin Fahd University and the first ever to see the home team playing against another team from Riyadh. The University has introduced women football some 18 months ago.

Suggestions that 16 of those 18 months were spent explaining the off-side rule are not to be entertained.

» Bad Week

Before we pick this week’s poor soul, it’s only right we spare a thought for the man who graced this section just two weeks ago. Yes, Peter Hain has shuffled off to spend more time with his lawyers, and has been replaced as Secretary of State for Work and Pensioners by James Purnell, whom you may remember from such blogs as this one. (James Purnell’s reaction to his promotion? Speechless.)

KebabTempting thought it is to give Mr Hain a second starring role, I’m going to risk reprisals from her minder to declare Home Secretary Jacqui Smith this week’s unfortunate. When she isn’t sneaking off to Peckham with her bodyguard for a (donor?) kebab at teatime or labelling a large chunk of the population as not-we, she’s trying to justify bad laws by inventing new words:

It won’t be hypothetical if and when it occurs. We are not legislating now on the basis that we are bringing it in now for something that might happen in the future; we are bringing it in now for something that might happen in the future; we are bringing in a position for if it becomes unhypothetical.

Another one for the New Labour Doublespeak Dictionary.

Posted in Something for the Weekend | Tagged | Leave a comment

Just how much financial trouble are Labour in?

Really rather a lot it would seem, at least according to this week’s Tribune:

LABOUR finance chiefs are making ‘frantic’ attempts to reschedule up to £14 million of outstanding loans amid legal warnings that the party is ‘skating on thin ice’ in its financial management.

Officers have been told in private talks with financial advisers that radical steps might have to be considered to restructure the party in order to limit the personal liabilities of its national executive committee members if finances are not brought under tighter control …

Discussions on whether the party could be faced with prospect of being forced into

…

Posted in News | 1 Comment

In denial: Labour and Rosemary Emodi

I’ve commented before on the at times bizarre group-think mentality that seems to be gripping many in Labour circles over any criticism of Ken Livingstone. Their response is either to say:

  • Hey, you are a left-winger, you treacherous scum, how dare you criticise beloved Ken!, or
  • Hey, you are right-wing scum and part of a nasty conspiracy, how dare you set foot in our town?

(I paraphrase only slightly).

So what of Rosemary Emodi’s resignation earlier this week? You’d have thought that the resignation of one of Ken Livingstone’s aides for lying over whether or not she took a luxury overseas trip might …

Posted in London | 1 Comment

Tories lose control in Basingstoke

Hampshire News brings us the glad tidings:

The Conservatives lost overall control of Basingstoke and Deane Borough Council last night after the Liberal Democrats won the Baughurst by-election.

Liberal Democrat Michael Bound secured 428 votes to beat Tory Zoe Wheddon, who polled 368 votes. The turnout was 41 per cent.

The by-election was called after the death of sitting Conservative councillor Sheila Allen, in September.

The result wiped out the Conservatives’ majority, leaving them with half the 60 council seats. The Liberal Democrats now have 16 councillors, while the Labour group retains 11 and the independents three.

This is the latest good result for …

Posted in News | 4 Comments

Can you help us write our policy?

The Liberal Democrats’ Federal Policy Committee is inviting members to put themselves forward to sit on the policy working groups which draft policy for consideration by FPC and then Conference.

Party members have been asked to send in their names by 28th January – so this is your last chance to do it by then!

FPC is currently putting together groups to look at education, and non-climate change environmental issues, so if you’d like to be considered for them then you need to get your application by the deadline.

However if you are mainly interested in other …

Posted in Conference | 7 Comments

Opinion: In the Upper House, fisticuffs and champagne

What should we make of the resignation of Italian prime minister Romano Prodi, following his coalition’s defeat in a vote of confidence in the upper house of parliament, the Senate? British commentators might reassure themselves ‘but that was Italy’, assuming that anything as colourful as punches flying around the woolsack couldn’t happen here. Not in the Lords’ present moribund condition, perhaps, but could it in future?

Italian journalists, by the way, haven’t written up yesterday’s events as if it were yet another humdrum day in the dysfunctional life of their nation’s politics. They sense something ‘un-Italian’ about it all, …

Posted in Europe / International and Op-eds | 5 Comments

Norman Lamb on the NHS

Fast approaching its 60th birthday, the NHS is at a crossroads.

We have seen 10 years of heavy investment under Labour – desperately needed after years of chronic Conservative neglect. However, the money came with a merry go round of reform, throwing the service into disarray as staff and patients struggled to cope with constant restructuring.

So, although spending on health has now hit the European average, cancer and stroke survival rates in the UK are still poor compared to much of Europe, while health inequalities have actually widened under Labour. The diagnosis is clear: the centralised state has poorly served the worst off, the very people who need help most of all.

The Tories solution is to reduce accountability even further by creating an unelected quango to control our health service, which would ultimately have the power to close local hospitals. And should we ever really trust the Conservatives to maintain funding for health and social care – particularly given that the priority they chose at their conference last October was a massive cut in inheritance tax for million pound estates?

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 5 Comments

Boris Johnson: what was he on about?

Here’s a challenge for you. What was the problem to which Boris Johnson thinks this is the solution:

I have an infallible solution. You go to Legoland. To be exact, you go to those deceptively simple whirly teacup things, and you subject the human body to the most extraordinary stresses and shears. Your teacup rotates in one direction. The teatray spins the other way.

Posted in Humour | Tagged | 16 Comments
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