Author Archives: Stephen Tall

Stephen was Editor (and Co-Editor) of Liberal Democrat Voice from 2007 to 2015, and writes at The Collected Stephen Tall. He writes a fortnightly column for ConservativeHome and 'The Underdog' column for Total Politics magazine. He edited the 2013 publication, The Coalition and Beyond: Liberal Reforms for the Decade Ahead, and is a Research Associate for the liberal think-tank CentreForum. He was awarded the inaugural Lib Dem ‘Blogger of the Year’ prize in 2006, was a councillor for eight years in Oxford, including a year as Deputy Lord Mayor, and appears frequently in the media in person, in print and online. Stephen combines his political interests with his professional life as Development Director for the Education Endowment Foundation, though writes here in a personal capacity.
Stephen Tall

In the next month 29 seats will short-list their wannabe Lib Dem MPs

By Stephen Tall | Sat 22nd February 2014 - 4:40 pm

Lib Dems winning hereHere’s the full list of selection contests in the coming month available for Lib Dems on the approved parliamentary candidates’ list, together with the closing date for applications. They include five of the seats on the party’s top 50 target list: Newport East, Totnes, Bristol North West, Bristol South, and Chelmsford.

The following seats have selections in progress and are currently advertising for candidates:

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Posted in Selection news | 3 Comments
Stephen Tall

Another Coalition? 1-in-5 of the public likes the idea, but is divided between Lib-Lab and Lib-Con pact

By Stephen Tall | Fri 21st February 2014 - 7:45 am

Nick Clegg sparked a flurry of Coalition speculation this week, with his (relatively) warm words towards Labour on a BBC Radio 4 documentary this week. Everyone’s had their say – but what does the public think? YouGov has polled them to ask…

The first question asked which option folk would like to see after the next general election…

yougov coalition feb 2014

So a Labour majority government is the preference of most (31%), narrowly ahead of a Tory majority government (29%). A coalition government involving the Lib Dems would be favoured by …

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Posted in Polls | Tagged and | 20 Comments
Stephen Tall

Clegg v Farage: why Nick needs Nigel

By Stephen Tall | Thu 20th February 2014 - 1:45 pm

Some smart stuff from Nick Clegg this morning, issuing a direct challenge to Ukip’s Nigel Farage to debate him on Europe.

For starters, it seizes the initiative. Nick’s been ambushed often enough on his radio phone-in show, Call Clegg, with the producers lining up disgusted ex-Lib Dem members, and folk like Boris Johnson and Cathy Newman, to spring awkward questions on him. Today he turned the tables. The speed with which emails from the party pinged into my inbox – complete with petition to sign – show this was a planned surprise.

It’s succeeded in catching Nigel Farage off-guard. The Ukip leader wants to think through the pros and cons. If he agrees to Nick’s challenge, will it weaken his case for appearing in 2015’s televised leaders’ debates? Should he demand a four-way debate – even though he must know that’s a non-starter and it might look like he’s unwilling to take up the gauntlet thrown down by Nick? They’re fair enough questions to want to think through. But in today’s insta-response news climate, Nige’s lack of immediate enthusiasm will dent his carefully cultivated image of un-spun, devil-may-care, shoot-from-the-hip, take-on-all-comers man-of-the-people.

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Posted in News | Tagged , and | 40 Comments
Stephen Tall

Après Nick: which Lib Dem MPs are best-placed to become the next Lib Dem leader?

By Stephen Tall | Sun 16th February 2014 - 12:00 pm

Today’s Independent has an interesting story speculating on the Lib Dem leadership contest to come if the 2015 election result triggers Nick Clegg’s resignation. It’s one of the features of this parliament – perhaps linked to it being a fixed-term in which we know the dates are all known – that there hasn’t been nearly as much gossip about future leadership bids in any of the three main parties.

Anyway, the Indy story seeks to make up a little for that absence: Nick Clegg’s rivals for the Lib Dems leadership told to rev up. The premise of the article …

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Posted in News | Tagged , , , , , , , and | 56 Comments
Stephen Tall

How should PMQs be reformed?

By Stephen Tall | Sat 15th February 2014 - 8:00 am

Hansard-SocietyPrime Minister’s Questions, the half-hour weekly pantomime that transfixes Westminster and the SW1 media, got a deserved pasting from the Hansard Society this week which released a report, Tuned in or Turned off? Public attitudes to PMQs.

The results couldn’t be clearer. PMQs is a significant ‘cue’ or ‘building block’ for the public’s perceptions of Parliament, and it provides a lot of the raw material that feeds their negative assumptions about politicians.

The public like the ‘theory’ of PMQs but dislike the current practice of it. They recognise that the opportunity

…

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Posted in News | Tagged , and | 15 Comments
Stephen Tall

Official: Lib Dem voters least bothered about penis size

By Stephen Tall | Fri 14th February 2014 - 2:15 pm

Kudos to YouGov for coming up with the most outrageously crow-barred poll finding to mark Valentine’s Day – that Lib Dem voters are least likely to think that penis size matters.

yougov poll - 14 feb 2014

The findings are not surprising. After all, we’ve always wanted proportional representation. We’ve always been wary of sudden swings to the left or right. And throughout the Coalition, Lib Dems have argued it’s not the size of our parliamentary party that matters, but what we do with our honourable members. We must now gird our …

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Posted in Polls | Tagged | 13 Comments
Stephen Tall

Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election: Labour win easily, Ukip beat Tories to 2nd, Lib Dems lose deposit

By Stephen Tall | Fri 14th February 2014 - 9:10 am

Labour comfortably won yesterday’s Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election, caused by the sad death of Paul Goggins just five weeks ago. Here are the results:

    Labour: Mike Kane – 13,261 (55%, +11%)
    UKIP: John Bickley – 4,301 (18%, +15%)
    Conservative: Daniel Critchlow – 3,479 (15%, -11%)
    Liberal Democrat: Mary di Mauro – 1,176 (5%, -17%)
    Green: Nigel Woodcock – 748 (3%, +3%)
    BNP: Eddy O’Sullivan – 708 (3%, -1%)
    Monster Raving Loony: Captain Chaplington-Smythe – 288 (1%)
    Turnout: 23,961, 28%

It’s clear there were two winners from the election – though the very low-turn-out (barely one-quarter of the registered electorate bothered to vote in what was a foregone conclusion by-election) …

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Posted in News and Parliamentary by-elections | Tagged and | 128 Comments
Stephen Tall

Memo to both Left and Right: Income Tax isn’t the only tax that matters

By Stephen Tall | Thu 13th February 2014 - 7:45 am

There was some leftie love showered on this ConservativeHome article by Peter Franklin this week: Right-wingers should stop boasting about how much income tax the rich pay. His point was absolutely right, as he laid into the supposedly slam-dunk argument glibly tossed around by unthinking capitalist Tories like Boris:

The richest one per cent of Britons contribute 30 per cent of all the Income Tax collected in this country. This, supposedly, is a ‘killer fact’ – deployed with devastating complacency by the free-market right: Rising inequality? No need to worry about that! The rich are kindly paying your taxes for

…

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Posted in News | Tagged , and | 27 Comments
Stephen Tall

Ed Miliband’s “People Powered Public Services”: some interesting ideas lurk beyond the bland

By Stephen Tall | Wed 12th February 2014 - 7:45 am

I read Ed Miliband’s Hugo Young lecture on the train home last night to save you the trouble. No need to thank me. Actually there are some good parts to it, which I’ll come onto. And if you want to share my pleasure the full text is available here.

However, I’d suggest skipping the first 1,685 words which can be summarised as, “Life can be unfair. I, Ed Miliband, have noticed this and so have lots of other people, like Obama and the Pope.” Along the way he name-checks Margaret Thatcher (a conviction politician, y’see… except for all the …

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Stephen Tall

Must-read analysis from Peter Kellner on where the 5 million missing 2010 Lib Dem voters have gone

By Stephen Tall | Tue 11th February 2014 - 1:20 pm

A fascinating piece of polling research from YouGov’s Peter Kellner in today’s Guardian, looking at how votes have churned since the 2010 general election.

My working assumption looking at the headline poll ratings has been that there’s been relatively little movement between Labour and the Conservatives, with most of the movement from the Lib Dems to Labour and from the Tories to Ukip. YouGov’s research shows how simplistic that assumption about votes lost/gained in the last four years is:

vote churn peter kellner - feb 2014

Three quick points drawn from this table:

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Posted in Polls | Tagged , and | 40 Comments
Stephen Tall

In the next month 21 seats will short-list their wannabe Lib Dem MPs

By Stephen Tall | Sun 9th February 2014 - 3:45 pm

Lib Dems winning hereHere’s the full list of selection contests in the coming month available for Lib Dems on the approved parliamentary candidates’ list, together with the closing date for applications. They include five of the seats on the party’s top 50 target list: Edinburgh South, York Outer (following Nick Emmerson’s withdrawal), Devon West and Torridge, Bristol North West, and Chelmsford.

The following seats have selections in progress and are currently advertising for candidates:

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Posted in Selection news | 10 Comments
Stephen Tall

UPDATED: Full list of Lib Dems standing in our held seats and top 50 targets

By Stephen Tall | Sun 9th February 2014 - 8:45 am

We’re 15 months from the May 2015 election so here’s my latest running check on how candidate selection is going in our held and key target seats…

Lib Dems winning hereI published a first draft of this list at the start of October, and asked readers to help me update it. Many thanks to those of you who have helped me keep it updated, including the party’s Candidates Services Office. Here’s the latest version of the list of (re-)selections in our held seats and the top 50 targets for the party.

It’s a snapshot of how the party’s doing in getting people in place in the battleground seats that will determine the extent of Lib Dem influence in the next parliament:

Held seats: 45/57 MPs re-selected or candidates selected where MPs retiring (79%); 8/57 MPs retiring (14%) – 6 successors selected.

Top targets from Tories: 14/27 candidates selected (52%).

Top targets from Labour: 11/23 candidates selected (48%).

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Posted in News | Tagged | 8 Comments
Stephen Tall

Nick Clegg: “If you are anti-drugs, you should be pro-reform”

By Stephen Tall | Sun 9th February 2014 - 8:00 am

clegg drugs observerThe message may not be new – Nick Clegg first declared that “If you are anti-drugs, you should be pro-reform” back in December 2012 – but that’s no reason not to welcome the Lib Dem leader’s re-statement that urgent reform of the UK’s drugs laws is needed.

It’s the splash in today’s Observer, which reports:

In some of the most outspoken comments on the issue by a serving British politician, Clegg laments the current situation in which “one in five young people have admitted taking drugs in the

…

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Posted in News | Tagged , and | 56 Comments
Stephen Tall

Immigration minister Mark Harper quits. An honourable resignation? Inevitable is nearer the mark

By Stephen Tall | Sat 8th February 2014 - 7:30 pm

Mark Harper, Conservative immigration minister, today resigned after learning his cleaner did not have permission to work in the UK. Here’s how the BBC reports it:

Mr Harper notified Prime Minister David Cameron, who accepted his resignation “with regret”, Number 10 said. It added there was “no suggestion” the 43-year-old Conservative MP for the Forest of Dean had “knowingly employed an illegal immigrant”. Fellow Tory James Brokenshire has been appointed the new immigration minister.

His resignation is being hailed as honourable, though I think inevitable is nearer the mark. There is no suggestion he acted illegally, and in his own version …

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Posted in News | Tagged , , , and | 24 Comments
Stephen Tall

Editors’ note: How we intend to handle ‘sponsored posts’ in the future

By Stephen Tall | Sat 8th February 2014 - 8:45 am

Last November, LibDemVoice – after some internal debate among the editorial team and with quite a few qualms – published our first (and, to date, last) ‘sponsored post’, an article published in return for payment to the site. Both the principle – publishing an article in return for payment – and the subject matter (support of expansion at Heathrow) made it pretty controversial.

Some readers thought it was quite the wrong thing for the site to do; others thought that, so long as the posts were clearly marked as sponsored, then it was fine. We paused for thought …

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Posted in News | 23 Comments
Stephen Tall

LDVideo EXCLUSIVE: “The Lost Liberal Democrat Votes”

By Stephen Tall | Fri 7th February 2014 - 3:15 pm

Here’s a fascinating 7-minute video from documentary producer Ed Stradling looking at “The lost Liberal Democrat Votes” – and what the party can do to win them back by 2015. Ed’s not a Lib Dem member, so when I asked him what had prompted him to make this short film, here’s what he told me:

I’m not a party member, in fact I’ve never even voted for the Lib Dems, although I may have done had they ever stood a chance in any of my constituencies. However, I do think the Lib Dems have done a fantastic job in Government, and come 2015 I would certainly favour a Lib-Con coalition over an outright Tory Government, just as I’d favour a Lib-Lab coalition over an outright Labour Government. I think the political consequences of joining the Coalition have been terribly unfair on the Lib Dems and I guess that is the main motivation for the video – it’s always struck me as crazy that the Lib Dems should be punished by the left-sided voters for taking a decision which is clearly better for them, than the almost certain alternative of a Tory majority in a second 2010 election.

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Posted in News and YouTube | Tagged and | 63 Comments
Stephen Tall

Fraser Nelson’s must-read guide to utterly and completely misunderstanding the Lib Dems’ Coalition strategy

By Stephen Tall | Fri 7th February 2014 - 2:15 pm

Fraser Nelson has written a must-read guide to utterly and completely misunderstanding the Lib Dems’ Coalition strategy today. My guess is he’s reliant on Tory intelligence, which in this case is an oxymoron.

Much of it is the usual half-fair/half-unfair admixture of insults regularly thrown at the Lib Dems by the right-wing media. We are, says Fraser, “a hodge-podge of a party defined by its lack of definition”, “conservative in Somerset and socialist in Solihull” (has he met Lorely Burt?). Unlike the Conservatives, of course, where the small-l-liberal outlook of Ken Clarke and Nick Boles dovetails perfectly with the …

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , , , , and | 12 Comments
Stephen Tall

It’s Laws v Gove again as Lib Dem schools minister says academy chains should be accountable to Ofsted

By Stephen Tall | Thu 6th February 2014 - 9:00 pm

‘It’s civil war in the Coalition classroom’ – that’s how the Independent bills the latest row between those two very civil politicians running the education department, Conservative secretary of state Michael Gove and Lib Dem schools minister David Laws.

I wrote at the weekend about the first spat, which erupted after Michael Gove’s decision to sack Baroness (Sally) Morgan as chair of Ofsted for doing too good a job – at least, that seemed to be the gist of his argument, as he praised her to the skies for her “superlative” work before saying it was time for a …

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Posted in News | Tagged , , , , and | 8 Comments
Stephen Tall

Higher-rate tax and Danny Alexander’s time-limited dead body

By Stephen Tall | Wed 5th February 2014 - 8:30 pm

This was the couldn’t-be-clearer headline in the Mirror today, atop an interview with Lib Dem chief secretary to the treasury Danny Alexander:

danny alexander mirror headline

Defiant Danny Alexander today opened up a fresh rift within the Coalition Government by vowing to block Tory plans for yet another tax cut for the rich. … His comments will enrage Conservative MPs who are pushing to slash the rate from 45p ahead of next year’s General Election. It comes just days after David Cameron refused, on three occasions, to rule out cutting tax. But

…

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Posted in News | Tagged , , and | 31 Comments
Stephen Tall

How you can take part in LibDemVoice’s exclusive party member surveys

By Stephen Tall | Tue 4th February 2014 - 8:45 am

LibDemVoice’s surveys of party members signed-up to our discussion forum have been running for close to four years now. (I posted yesterday the final set of figures from our most recent poll.)

Our surveys are a way of testing members’ views on a variety of hot topics. And as they’ve been running throughout the first three-and-a-half years of the Coalition they’re also an interesting record of changing views on how the Coalition is regarded within the party.

If you would like to take part in the LibDemVoice surveys, there are simply two steps you need to follow:
1) Be a current Lib …

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Posted in LDV Members poll | Leave a comment
Stephen Tall

Free school lunches for infants: 60% of Lib Dems back Nick Clegg’s policy

By Stephen Tall | Mon 3rd February 2014 - 8:45 am

Lib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum  to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Some 750 party members responded – thank you – and we’ve been publishing the full results.

(There were a couple of results I ran out of time to publish during the Christmas holiday period – I’m publishing them this week.)

On Saturday, I reported the results of what party members think about school structures. Yesterday, we looked at whether you thought teachers should have formal professional qualifications and if the National …

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Posted in LDV Members poll | Tagged , , and | Leave a comment
Stephen Tall

Gove and Laws scrap it out on front pages over sacking of Ofsted head. Here’s what the row is all about.

By Stephen Tall | Sun 2nd February 2014 - 11:22 am

Today’s newspaper front pages are full of the scrap taking place at the heart of the Department for Education between Conservative secretary of state Michael Gove and Lib Dem schools minister David Laws:

gove laws - papers

  • Ofsted row: Lib Dems furious at Conservative plan to ‘politicise’ classrooms (Independent on Sunday)
  • Lib Dems savage Gove over sacked schools boss (The Sunday Times, £)
  • Angry Lib Dems accuse Michael Gove of bid to politicise education (Observer)

    • Why is there a row?

    On Friday night, The Independent broke the news that Baroness (Sally) Morgan, the Labour

    …

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    Posted in News | Tagged , , , , and | 28 Comments
    Stephen Tall

    Education: 59% of Lib Dems say teachers should have formal teaching qualifications

    By Stephen Tall | Sun 2nd February 2014 - 8:45 am

    Lib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum  to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Some 750 party members responded – thank you – and we’ve been publishing the full results.

    (There were a couple of results I ran out of time to publish during the Christmas holiday period – I’m publishing them this week.)

    Yesterday I reported the results of what party members think about school structures. Today we look at your views on teachers and the curriculum…

    59% of Lib Dems say teachers employed by state-funded

    …

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    Posted in LDV Members poll | Tagged , , , and | 15 Comments
    Stephen Tall

    Lewis Baston on the polls and ‘How the Lib Dems will actually do’

    By Stephen Tall | Sat 1st February 2014 - 10:55 am

    I wrote last October about election expert Lewis Baston’s forecast for the next election, based on his analysis not only of the polls, but also of the trends in the ‘swing seats’, the battlegrounds which, in a first-past-the-post voting system, actually matter. His forecast for May 2015 was that Labour would edge the Tories by 36% to 34%, with the Lib Dems on 16%, and relatively few seats changing hands.

    Over at Progress Online, Lewis has returned to the fray, and asked the question, ‘How will the Lib Dems actually do?’. Here’s his conclusion:

    It is always troublesome to translate

    …

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    Posted in Polls | Tagged and | 36 Comments
    Stephen Tall

    Education: 47% of Lib Dems want grammar schools opened up, while clear majorities oppose academies, free schools and for-profit schools

    By Stephen Tall | Sat 1st February 2014 - 8:45 am

    Lib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum  to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Some 750 party members responded – thank you – and we’ve been publishing the full results.

    (There were a couple of results I ran out of time to publish during the Christmas holiday period – I’m publishing them this week.)

    Almost half (47%) Lib Dems call for opening up of grammar schools to all children

    Thinking about grammar schools and schools that select pupils by ability, which of the following best reflects your views?

      21%

    …

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    Posted in LDV Members poll | Tagged , , , and | 80 Comments
    Stephen Tall

    Thirsk and Malton: Tory MP Anne McIntosh de-selected, 5-way marginal for 2015?

    By Stephen Tall | Fri 31st January 2014 - 10:00 pm

    Interesting news from Yorkshire, where controversial Tory MP Anne McIntosh has been de-selected by her local party following a ballot of local party members.

    Ms McIntosh has been in a long-running dispute with local officials about her political future. The MP, chair of the Environment Select Committee, said she still intended to fight the seat. Ms McIntosh, who was first elected to Parliament in 1997, survived a similar vote of confidence before the 2010 election and went on to increase her majority to more than 11,000. The MP is reported to have fallen out with the chair of her

    …

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    Posted in News | Tagged , , , and | 11 Comments
    Stephen Tall

    As football’s January transfer window closes why not play ‘Ukip Manager’?

    By Stephen Tall | Fri 31st January 2014 - 5:03 pm

    Here’s a snippet from Ukip’s 2010 general election manifesto:

    “Ukip would place a maximum of three foreign players in the starting line-up, as this would free up places for British players in the youth academies of these teams and spur the future development of home teams.”

    As Paul Haydon points out here,

    That would force managers to make some pretty tough decisions about who they would keep and who they would give the boot. Where would that leave your favourite team? Who would you keep and who would you send home? Toure or Silva? Negredo or Aguero? Oscar or Hazard?

    Well, …

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    Posted in News | Tagged , , , and | 11 Comments
    Stephen Tall

    Pupil Premium: is it working? Probably – but it’s not a quick-fix solution

    By Stephen Tall | Wed 29th January 2014 - 10:05 am

    The Pupil Premium – money targeted at children from low-income households – is the Lib Dems’ flagship education policy. By the end of the Parliament, it will be worth £2.5 billion, cash given directly to schools to spend as they wish on improving attainment outcomes.

    Is it working? That’s the question being asked, given the news that the attainment gap at age 16 – the difference between GCSE results achieved by pupils eligible for free school meals and all other pupils – increased very slightly last year. In fact, results for both low-income pupils and all other pupils improved; …

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    Posted in Op-eds | Tagged and | 13 Comments
    Stephen Tall

    Lib Dem Deputy Leader election: result expected today at 7pm

    By Stephen Tall | Tue 28th January 2014 - 2:40 pm

    Three Lib Dem MPs hope that by this evening they will be elected Deputy Leader of the Lib Dems – the post was vacated by Simon Hughes when he was appointed Justice Minister. The three competing for the post are (in strict surname order) Gordon Birtwhistle, Sir Malcolm Bruce and Lorely Burt.

    The electorate is comprised of their fellow MPs – technically the post is Deputy Leader of the Parliamentary Party in the House of Commons, though only the first two words of the title are commonly used – with the wider party membership getting to choose the Party President (for which there will also be a vacancy later this year when Tim Farron’s second two-year term expires).

    We’ll find out the result this evening, but to whet your appetite the BBC has this two-minute profile of the runners and riders…

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    Posted in News, Party policy and internal matters and YouTube | Tagged , , , and | 3 Comments
    Stephen Tall

    Lib Dems on the front page. Don’t worry, this time it’s for our tax policies

    By Stephen Tall | Tue 28th January 2014 - 9:10 am

    “Lib Dems declare war on rich” is the hyperbolic front page of today’s Independent.

    indy lib dem tax jan 2014

    It’s tagged ‘exclusive’ though the article – which you can read here – seems to be reporting Lib Dem policy as approved by the party’s September 2013 conference – namely: (1) Introduce a Mansion Tax, applicable at 1% on the value of a residential property in excess of £2 million; and (2) Cap the lifetime limit for which tax relief is available on pension contributions at £1 million. (Flick to page …

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    Posted in News | Tagged and | 11 Comments
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