Category Archives: News

Mark Pack’s November 2024 report: A guaranteed way to lose votes

The importance of next May

A blessing and a curse of a democracy is that elections keep on coming around. So while this year has been an exhausting one of election campaigns already, we also need to be turning our eyes to the local elections coming up in May.

Most of the seats up in May were last contested when the Conservatives were still on an electoral high back in 2021. Therefore they provide us with an important opportunity to follow up on our major gains from the Conservatives at both local and Westminster level since 2021. They also provide us with an important opportunity to continue to grow our strength more broadly, especially in areas where, now with a Labour government in Westminster, new possibilities are opening up.

But there is one sure-fire, 100% guaranteed, rock-solid way of repelling voters from us, and it is one we use far too often.

It is not having a Liberal Democrat on the ballot paper. Zero votes for the party guaranteed.

Both Labour and the Conservatives, for example, get very close now to having a full slate of candidates in local elections. We do not.

The good news is that since in the last Parliament we have collectively started focusing on really raising our candidate numbers in council contests, we have made good progress, both for by-elections and for the May rounds of elections.

Standing candidates is not only about credibility and relevance. It is also the way to get more people into the habit of regularly voting for the Liberal Democrats – a crucial step in building the sort of larger core vote for the party that will help us succeed more often.

With us having regained our third place in the House of Commons, continuing that progress in candidate numbers to help further establish ourselves is even more important next May.

If you have local elections coming up in your area, there are great training materials and supporting documents on how to increase your candidate numbers, and how to run a proper approval process. Drop me a line if you need help finding the support you need.

Good luck!

A 15th century technology still reigns supreme

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Lib Dem MPs are wrong to campaign against farming inheritance tax changes

With the ‘Tractor Tax’ protests filling the news for several days, yesterday delivered an email from Lib Dem HQ informing me that our MPs are demanding that the tax be axed. I was both surprised and disappointed to see our MPs siding with some very wealthy vested interests on this issue. It is clear that investment in farmland is being used by some as a deliberate ploy to dodge inheritance tax, and beyond romanticising the “family farm” and way of life, I’ve yet to hear a convincing moral or economic argument as to why farmers uniquely deserve a better deal on inheritance tax than you or me. And even after Labour’s proposed changes, the IHT regime for farms still remains far better than that available to almost anyone else.

Ed Davey and Tim Farron tell us that farming is vital to the country, that rural communities have been taken for granted, and that Brexit and trade deals that undercut British farmers with food produced to lower standards is a disaster for them. All that is true, but it has absolutely nothing to do with inheritance tax, and even if Labour change their minds tomorrow, the very real challenges that British farmers face will remain. I find it curious (or perhaps not) that tax is the issue that has brought out farmers to protest, whipped up by some multi-millionaires and a right wing press that is ideologically opposed to all inheritance tax in principle.

If we accept that genuine farming families are deserving of special treatment to allow farms to be passed down tax-free within the family, there are ways that Labour’s plans could be amended to ease that, but Lib Dem MPs are siding with tax-dodging multi-millionaires to reverse the change entirely. They are wrong to do so.

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New ideas at Scottish Conference

Scottish Conference took place in Perth on Saturday. The 300 year old Salutation Inn near the river has been putting up weary travellers for over 300 years and has been holding Lib Dem events for just about as long. I don’t think the decor has changed in all the time I’ve been going there since we moved back to Scotland in 2000 so it’s a wee bit dated but it serves decent pub food and the staff can’t do enough to help you. And the big win for me is that they make the toast for you at breakfast. You don’t have to stand for ages and watch helplessly as the slow moving toast machine burns your bread.

I shall cover the controversial debates – and there were a couple where we disagreed really well with excellent speeches – in another post, but I wanted to tell you about an innovation or two.

You know how quite often we get motherhood and apple pie motions which state the obvious Lib Dem position on an issue and nobody is ever going to vote against? Rather than give them half an hour’s debate, they have a party spokesperson present them in a report, speak for five minutes or so about the ideas and then have Conference vote. Housing spokesperson Paul McGarry, also the Conference Convener, was the first to trial this. His policy proposals were:

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WATCH: Alex Cole-Hamilton’s speech to Scottish Conference

Scottish Lib Dems met in Perth for their Autumn Conference on Saturday. Alex Cole-Hamilton was in buoyant mood after a stonking by-election win on Thursday in Colinton/Fairmilehead in Edinburgh. We took the seat of new Labour MP Scott Arthur, going from fourth to first place. Winning 36% of the vote was incredible. Alex also had another by-election win in Perthshire itself to gloat about. A few weeks ago, Alan Watt had a similar meteoric rise after a superb and intense campaign.

We will have more about the Conference later. There were some brilliant and highly controversial debates, possibly some of the best I have heard in my long history of attending Conference.

But first, here is Alex’s speech. He spoke in the same room where David Bowie once performed.

The audio is at best not great, so you will need the text below.

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Christine Jardine’s message for Trans Awareness Week

Lib Dem Women and Equalities spokesperson Christine Jardine has issued a message for Trans Awareness Week which runs until Thursday. She said:

Today is the beginning of Trans Awareness Week. It’s an opportunity for us to celebrate trans people, acknowledge the challenges they face, and reflect on how we as a society can work together to improve trans people’s lives.

In decades past, the UK has led the world in advancing equality for all LGBT+ people – with the Liberal Democrats playing a particularly key role in driving that progress forward.

However, too many trans people still face discrimination and hostility simply for being who they are. Sadly, the fight for equality must go on.

The figures are stark. The number of hate crimes recorded against trans people have skyrocketed by 52% since 2020/21. Young trans people face the highest rates of homelessness among the LGBT+ community. Not to mention the shocking reality that on average, trans people are being forced to wait more than 7 years to get the specialist healthcare they deserve.

Let me be clear – Liberal Democrats will always stand up for the rights of everyone in the LGBT+ community, including trans people.

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ALDC by-election Report, 14th November

This was an incredible by-election week for the Lib Dems, as we held both seats in Milton Keynes and have made gains from Labour in West Oxfordshire and Edinburgh. Labour held their other 7 seats and did not make gains; the Green Party failed to defend their only seat up for election this week, losing it to the Conservatives.

The headline win for Lib Dems this week goes to Cllr Louise Spence who stood in the Colinton/Fairmilehead ward in Edinburgh Council. She came out ahead in the sea of candidates (there are in total 12!) and nearly tripled the previous first preference votes for the Lib Dems compared to the last election. Congratulations to Louise and the team for taking this win from where we originally placed fourth! This couldn’t have been easy.

Edinburgh Council, Colinton/Fairmilehead (1st preference votes, Liberal Democrat elected at stage 11)
Liberal Democrat (Louise Spence): 2683 (36.3%, +23.8%)
Conservative: 1454 (19.6%, -10.3%)
Labour: 1441 (19.5%, -13.9%)
SNP: 800 (10.8%, -6.4%)
Green Party: 393 (5.3%, -0.1%)
Reform: 268 (3.6%, new)
Independent: 173 (2.3%, new)
Independent: 57 (0.8%, new)
Scottish Family Party: 51 (0.7%, -0.9%)
Independent: 50 (0.7%, new)
Independent: 22 (0.3%, new)
Libertarian Party: 9 (0.1%, new)

In West Oxfordshire DC, the Lib Dems have also grown their support in Chipping Norton from fourth place to first, gaining the seat from Labour. Labour’s vote in the ward plummeted over half from 61.4% to 27.2%, while Cllr Mike Baggaley more than tripled the Lib Dem vote share. Congrats and well done to Mike and the team for running an amazing campaign and gaining the seat.

West Oxfordshire DC, Chipping Norton
Liberal Democrat (Mike Baggaley): 403 (31.3%, +24.6%)
Conservative: 383 (29.7%, +9.0%)
Labour: 350 (27.2%, -34.2%)
Green Party: 152 (11.8%, +0.5%)

The team in Milton Keynes City Council have also been working hard to defend the Bradwell and Broughton ward from by-election. Both Cllr Kerrie Bradburn and Cllr Clare Tevlin posted a massive vote share of over 50% and comfortably won their respective ward. Well done and congrats to Kerrie, Clare, and their teams for securing the seats for the Lib Dems!

Milton Keynes City Council, Bradwell
Liberal Democrat (Kerrie Bradburn): 1129 (56.1%, +2.3%)
Labour: 329 (16.3%, -8.6%)
Reform: 228 (11.3%, new)
Conservative: 226 (11.2%, -2.5%)
Green Party: 101 (5.0%, -2.5%)

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Lib Dems migrating to Bluesky

A number of prominent (and not so prominent) Lib Dems have deserted Twitter/X for the alternative platform Bluesky.

The party itself can be found at https://bsky.app/profile/libdems.org.uk

Now more than ever, we must stand up for core liberal values—equality, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law.

Join us in defending these values: http://libdems.org.uk/join

— Liberal Democrats (@libdems.org.uk) November 13, 2024 at 5:42 PM

Bluesky looks and feels very similar to the one we will not mention again. It has one very useful extra feature – starter packs – which are lists of related accounts. The official Lib Dem Starter Pack includes a growing number of MPs, plus the Party President, Mark Pack.

There is also a useful LibDem Starter Pack (note the subtle difference), run by Jennie Rigg, which includes lots of party members.

How can you tell that lots of Lib Dem MPs have started appearing on here?

By the fact that the Chief Whip has popped up to keep an eye on them 🙂

Welcome @wendychambld.bsky.social !

— Mark Pack (@markpackuk.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 2:57 PM

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Ed Davey “devastating” at PMQs

Ed Davey’s performance at PMQs today was described by New Statesman journalist Rachel Cunliffe as “devastating” to Keir Starmer. She compared and contrasted Kemi Badenoch’s mis-steps with Ed making Starmer “awkward” when faced with questions about the NI rise for GP practices.

At the very start of PMQs, Jardine set up the topic of the NI rise with a straightforward question on support for GP practices. Ed Davey then picked up the theme once Badenoch was finished, asking for a further commitment that GPs, pharmacies and other healthcare providers would be protected from the tax rise. His tone was mild, his question factual rather than aggressive. But it made Starmer more awkward than he had been at any point facing Badenoch. After the Prime Minister had answered, Davey said quietly: “I think patients and GPs listening to that will want more reassurance”. It was devastating.

Christine Jardine asked the very first question at PMQs today, on that NI rise, having spent last week meeting worried GP practices in her Edinburgh West constituency.

In the two weeks since the Budget, several GP practices in my constituency of Edinburgh West, including my own, have contacted me with their genuine fears that the impact of the changes to national insurance employer contributions will threaten their ability to continue to offer the public the same standard of health service that they currently receive. And they are far from the only ones struggling, particularly in the health and social care sectors. Can the Prime Minister explain to me—perhaps he and his Chancellor would like to come to my constituency and explain to GPs, charities and others—how they are meant to cope without extra support from the Government?

The Prime Minister
Because of the tough decisions that we took, we have put forward a Budget with an extra £25.6 billion for the NHS and for social care. That includes an increase to carers’ allowance and £600 million to deal with the pressures of adult social care. We will ensure that GP practices have the resources that they need, and the funding arrangements between the NHS and contractors will be set out in the usual way.

Ed followed up with his first question

His second was on the importance of working with European leaders to support Ukraine given the impending Trump administration:

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11 November 2024 – today’s press releases

  • Almost 1 in 6 calls in NHS 24 go unanswered
  • Martin stretching climate credibility with watering down comments
  • Planning applications fall across almost every category

Almost 1 in 6 calls in NHS 24 go unanswered

Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Alex Cole-Hamilton MSP has today said that every corner of our NHS is suffering under SNP mismanagement as he revealed that almost 1 in 6 calls to NHS 24 went unanswered last year.

A Scottish Liberal Democrat freedom of information request revealed that in 2023/24, 16.5% of calls to the NHS 24-111 service went unanswered.

The freedom of information request also shows that in 2023/24, the longest wait for a call to be answered was more than 3 hours in January 2024. The average wait for a call to be answered was almost 28 minutes in March 2024.

Mr Cole-Hamilton said:

As these figures show, too many calls are going unanswered and people are facing very long waits before they get through to someone who can help.

Under the SNP’s mismanagement, this is another part of our NHS that is crying out for help. From excruciating waits at A&E to record numbers of people stuck in hospital, patients are suffering and staff are beyond breaking point.

Scottish Liberal Democrats want a complete overhaul of the SNP’s failed NHS recovery plan. We need a new plan that will tackle burnout among staff and address core problems, such as the crises in mental health and social care. That’s how we can ease pressures across the rest of the health service and get everyone the care they desperately deserve.

Martin stretching climate credibility with watering down comments

Responding to Scotland’s Net Zero Secretary, Gillian Martin, telling the BBC that the SNP government haven’t been ‘watering down’ their climate targets, despite choosing to scrap key emissions goals just weeks ago, Scottish Liberal Democrat climate crisis spokesperson Liam McArthur MSP said:

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9-10 November 2024 – the weekend’s press releases

  • Remembrance Sunday: we must never forget their sacrifice
  • Over two million GP appointments at risk due to National Insurance tax hike
  • NICs Rise: Govt must invest in healthcare
  • Rennie comments on primary school teacher training cut
  • Rennie: RAAC threatens to wreck college budgets
  • 1.3m school working days lost to mental ill health

Remembrance Sunday: we must never forget their sacrifice

Commenting on Remembrance Sunday, Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey said:

Remembrance Sunday is such an important day for all of us. We remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our country, for our peace and for the future we all share.

We must never forget their sacrifice nor can we forget the veterans, many of whom will march past the Cenotaph today. They still bear the scars, both mental and physical, from their service, and our country can and must do much more to support them.

Over two million GP appointments at risk due to National Insurance tax hike

The rise in employers’ National Insurance Contributions at the Budget could end up costing GP surgeries the equivalent of over two million appointments a year, Liberal Democrat analysis has revealed.

The Liberal Democrats are calling on the government to exempt GPs and other health and care providers from the rise, but so far ministers have refused to do so. The party is seeking to use amendments to upcoming legislation on the Budget to exempt GPs from the National Insurance tax rise.

The Institute of General Practice Management has estimated that the rise will mean the average GP surgery’s tax bill will go up by around £20,000 a year. This could end up costing GPs an estimated £125.5 million a year in additional costs, for all 6,275 GP practices in England.

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Lib Dems mark Remembrance Sunday

It’s 10 years since the stunning and emotive display of ceramic poppies, one for each allied soldier killed in the First World War, at the Tower of London.

Today, the nation marks Remembrance Sunday, 110 years after the war broke out and almost 106 years since it ended.

Ed Davey said:

Remembrance Sunday is such an important day for all of us. We remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our country, for our peace and for the future we all share.

We must never forget their sacrifice nor can we forget the veterans, many of whom will march past the Cenotaph today. They still bear the scars, both mental and physical, from their service, and our country can and must do much more to support them.

Alex Cole-Hamilton spoke at Holyrood this week and remembered not only those British soldiers who had died in conflict but Ukrainians who are fighting to protect our freedoms.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Trump is bad news for NATO. 

He damaged it in his first term and again during his campaign when he repeatedly threatened to either withdraw from the alliance or refuse to defend members that failed to meet the target of defence spending of at least two percent of GDP.

“We have been treated badly,” he told a Wisconsin election rally in September, “so badly, mostly by our allies. Our allies treat us actually worse than our so-called enemies. In the military, we protect them, and then they screw us on trade. We’re not going to let it happen anymore.”

Trump has threatened tariffs of up to 20 percent on EU and British goods. The clear implication is that if they want those tariffs reduced or eliminated then Europe’s NATO members will have to accept to spend more on defence which will allow the US to reduce its commitment. It is called transactional diplomacy.

Of course, Trump’s policy does not take into account that by beggaring his allies he also reduces their ability to spend more on defence.

Trump’s policy towards NATO is unpopular with the wider American public. More than 70 percent say they are enthusiastic supporters of the Alliance. This position was mirrored in July 2023 when—in a rare moment bipartisanship—Congress passed legislation which required US withdrawal from NATO to be approved by a two-thirds majority of the Senate, or through legislation which gives Congress a bigger say in overseeing alliances. The legislation was co-sponsored by Marco Rubio who has been tipped for the job of Trump’s Secretary of State.

The legislation, however, does not prevent Trump from closing bases, withdrawing troops or stopping investment or expenditure. Under the constitution, the president has wide powers to make and break treaties and order troops to occupy or withdraw from every part of the world. Trump, if he wanted, could hollow-out America’s commitment to defend Europe and leave America a semi-detached member of the alliance.

So European members of NATO remain NATO. But they sit easy compared to Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky is terrified

The election of Donald Trump raises the real possibility that his country’s lifeline of American military aid will come to a shuddering halt and push Ukraine under the heel of the Russian boot.

Trump has repeatedly opposed the economic drain of aid to Ukraine. He has added that if elected he would end the Ukraine war “in a day.”

The president-elect refuses to go into specifics, but there was a possible hint in a paper written in May by two of Trump’s former security advisers, General Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz.

They suggested that a Trump administration could propose immediate peace talks and a ceasefire based on current military positions. Ukraine would maintain its claim to territories currently occupied by Russia, leaving open the possibility of reunification at a later date. NATO membership—and possibly EU membership as well—would be taken off the table and pushed into an unknown future.

If Ukraine refused the American proposal then the Trump Administration would decrease American military aid. If Russia refused then the US would increase military aid to Ukraine.

Trump’s election could not have come at a worse time for Zelensky. The German government of Olof Scholz is on the verge of collapse. Europeans cannot continue the necessary support on their own and everyone is worried about the new international dimension created by the insertion of 10,000 North Korean troops.

At the same time the war on the ground is not going well. The Russians advance slowly but surely. They recently took the mining town of Selydove.

President Zelensky has ordered the call-up of 160,000 young men over the next three months, which has sent thousands into hiding. Without American support, Ukraine cannot withstand the Russian military steamroller.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is cock-a-hoop

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Scottish Liberal Democrats post big vote share gain across autumn elections

Alex Cole-Hamilton has today hailed increases in Lib Dem vote share in Aberdeenshire and Moray as he set out how his party have been the big vote share winners in the autumn by-elections.

Since the general election in July, the Scot Lib Dems have gained more vote share than any other party (up 4.5%). Scottish Labour are up 3.8%, the Scottish Conservatives are down 2.6% and the SNP are down 3.7%,

In all four of the by-elections the party contested this week, it saw an increase in vote share including +15.2% in Mearns in Aberdeenshire, within 88 votes of overtaking the SNP …

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ALDC’s by-election report, 7 November 2024

By-elections are slowly ramping up again as we see 9 principal council seats up for grabs this week. It was a SNP wipeout in Scotland as they lost all 4 seats they were defending to the Tories, and failed to gain 1 from a weak Labour. Other than their seat in Scotland, Labour also held another in England and gained one from an unorganised Conservative party. Green party held the only seat they were defending, and Reform won a seat from the Conservatives, the second reform gain in two weeks. The Lib Dems contested 6 of the 9 wards this time around and have made great gains in vote share in most.

In the Mearns ward in Aberdeenshire Council, the Lib Dems finished a strong third, only 77 votes away from SNP in the third stage of counting! The Tories won the seat. Well done and thank you to Isobel Knights and the team for almost quadrupling our vote here.

Aberdeenshire Council, Mearns (first preference results, Conservative elected at stage 4)
Conservative: 1347 (39.2%, +7.5%)
SNP: 832 (24.2%, -4.8%)
Liberal Democrat (Isobel Knights): 745 (21.7%, +15.2%)
Reform: 375 (10.9%, new)
Green Party: 136 (4.0%, +0.6%)

Another strong showing from the Lib Dems can be seen in Aberdeenshire Council in Central Buchan, where we also came third overall. The Conservatives also won this seat from the SNP. Thank you to Ian Bailey and the team for growing the Lib Dem vote.

Aberdeenshire Council, Central Buchan (first preference results, Conservative elected at stage 5)
Conservative: 1260 (41.3%, +8.0%)
SNP: 869 (28.5%, -2.6%)
Liberal Democrat (Ian Bailey): 435 (14.3%, +1.2%)
Reform: 331 (10.9%, new)
Scottish Family Party: 83 (2.7%, +1.3%)
Independent: 71 (2.3%, new)

The final by-election of Aberdeenshire Council this week in Fraserburgh & District saw the same result of a Conservative gain from SNP. Thank you to Sandy Leslie for flying the Scottish Lib Dem flag here.

Aberdeenshire Council, Fraserburgh & District
Conservative: 1145 (36.3%, +3.9%)
SNP: 895 (28.4%, +8.4%)
Reform: 817 (25.9%, new)
Liberal Democrat (Sandy Leslie): 222 (7.0%, +2.2%)
Scottish Family Party: 71 (2.3%, +1.3%)

Also in Scotland, Neil Alexander, the Lib Dem candidate for the Elgin City South ward in Moray Council, ran a good campaign and grew our vote five times over. Thank you to Neil and the local team for building a solid base for future elections in Moray.

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7 November 2024 – today’s press releases

  • ONS GP Survey: Two in five who could not get through to GP did nothing about symptoms
  • Interest rate cut: Govt must work to deliver growth, especially through small businesses
  • Davey to visit Ukraine charity: “Leaders across Europe must stand up to Putin”

ONS GP Survey: Two in five who could not get through to GP did nothing about symptoms

Responding to the latest ONS Survey, which showed that two in five (39%) people who were unable to contact their GP in the past month opted to do nothing about their ailment, Liberal Democrat Health and Social Care spokesperson, Helen Morgan MP said:

Our primary care services are at breaking point. Patients are left completely without options, instead letting their issues get worse when they are unable to get the care they need.

The blame for this shocking state of affairs lies squarely with the Conservative Party whose years of shameful neglect has broken our NHS.

It is now down to the new government to rise to this challenge and rescue our health service. That is why it is so disappointing to see that instead of supporting our GPs they are piling more pressure on them with their national insurance hike.

The new government needs to urgently rethink these proposals, scrap the GP penalty and get patients the care they deserve.

Interest rate cut: Govt must work to deliver growth, especially through small businesses

Commenting after the Bank of England has cut interest rates to 4.75%, Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesperson Daisy Cooper MP said:

This is welcome news for families across the country who are still living with the consequences of Conservative economic failure.

Notwithstanding, millions of households are still struggling with sky high mortgage payments two years on from the Conservatives’ disastrous mini-budget.

The burden of fixing the Conservatives’ mess has fallen on struggling households for too long. As rates are cut, the new Government must work to deliver growth in the economy, especially through small businesses and high streets.

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WATCH: Ed Davey question Keir Starmer on Trump re-election

Today at PMQs, Ed used his questions to challenge Keir Starmer on the UK Government’s approach to the incoming Trump administration.

The text is below:

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Alex Cole-Hamilton on Trump victory

Two weeks ago,  Scottish Lib Dem Leader Alex Cole-Hamilton was in Scranton, Pennsylvania, using a week of holiday to knock up for Kamala Harris.

Today he spoke to BBC Scotland about his worries about a second Trump presidency.

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Ed Davey calls Trump a “dangerous, destructive demagogue”

Ed Davey has called on the Government to fix our broken relationship with the EU in his first comments since Donald Trump won the US election. And he did not mince his words about the President-Elect, referring to him as a dangerous, destructive, demagogue.

He said:

This is a dark, dark day for people around the globe. The world’s largest economy and most powerful military will be led by a dangerous, destructive demagogue.

The next President of the United States is a man who actively undermines the rule of law, human rights, international trade, climate action and global security.

Millions of Americans – especially women and minorities – will be incredibly fearful about what comes next. We stand with them.

Families across the UK will also be worrying about the damage Trump will do to our economy and our national security, given his record of starting trade wars, undermining NATO and emboldening tyrants like Putin.

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7:30 am update: Lib Dems react to US election outcome

It’s not officially over yet, but it looks very much as though Donald Trump has won the US Presidential election and that the Republicans have won the Senate. And with Supreme Court Justices likely to retire, Trump has the chance to reinforce the already iron grip of conservatives on the Supreme Court.

It’s a very bleak morning. This is the result I have feared for a long time but allowed myself to hope that Kamala Harris might just pull off a victory.

In the 3 months since she became the Republican nominee, she has barely put a foot wrong as a candidate. She’s run a positive, optimistic campaign. She did not repeat the mistakes of 2016 when the Democrats withdrew from the key battleground states because they thought they had won.

If there was anything she could have done better, it was land a hopeful economic message. She also didn’t land the blame on Trump and the Republicans for blocking measures which would have improved people’s economic situation like a child tax credit and paid family leave.

She had to contend also with the Middle East situation. That undoubtedly lost her some votes – and probably from both sides.

Anyway, senior Lib Dems have started to process the news. This is what they are saying on social media:

Layla Moran, until recently our foreign affairs spokesperson:

Votes not yet all in but looks like hate is winning. The implications for security across the globe cannot be underestimated. Ukraine. Middle East. China. The UK will need to reevaluate its geopolitical centre of gravity.

Tim Farron:

Oh well!! 🇺🇸 😱 First thoughts…. The UK now needs to do one thing the left/liberals won’t like (establish strong early relationships with the Trump administration) and one thing the right won’t like (scrap all barriers to trade with Europe/increase military co-operation).

Mike Martin:

The UK immediately needs to:

– Increase defence spending rapidly (rather than shrinking its army)
– Focus its military strategy on deterring Russian aggression in Europe (rather than confronting ‘global threats’)
– Work with European allies to defend Europe under a NATO that doesn’t have US support (rather than assuming that America guarantees European security).

Chris Coughlan:

With the geopolitical shock of a likely Trump win the UK needs to move immediately back closer to our European allies- including reopening the issue of the single market

Freddie Van Mierlo

As the results of the US Presidential election still come in, the U.K. must urgently consider its position in Europe and our security. Slava Ukraini

Vikki Slade

This is just devastating – the world is moving in a scary way & I fear for all those vulnerable groups in USA but across the world.
Why would a country fall for such a con?

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6am update: It really isn’t looking good

Since my last update at the back of 4, the outlook for Kamala Harris has become a lot bleaker. Trump is ahead in all of the battleground states and it looks like he is on course to win the popular vote.

It’s not over yet, but it’s not where anyone of a liberal disposition would want us to be at this stage of the count.

What’s worse is that it looks like the Republicans will have control of the Senate and the House is a bit of a toss up.

If you need reminding, Donald Trump is a convicted felon who refused to accept his defeat in 2021, leading to an insurrection which he encouraged. He tried to get his then Vice President to refuse to certify the results of the election.  He has been ordered to pay $83 million to E Jean Carroll after he called her a liar for accusing him of sexually assaulting her. He still has outstanding court cases relating to the 2020 election and the January 6 insurrection.

When he was last in office, he appointed 3 conservative Supreme Court Justices who overturned the historic Roe vs Wade ruling which guaranteed a federal right to abortion. This has led to abortion bans in many states which are so stringent that women who have miscarriages are being denied life-saving procedures.

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4 am update: Harris campaign “searching for bright spots”

I have just woken up and am catching up on how things are going.

And it’s not looking good, to be honest.

At this time in 2020, it didn’t look that good either and then it got better. However, CNN’s John King is now looking at Georgia and is saying that it looks more like 2016, when Trump won than 2020 when he eventually lost. He says it is possible that Harris can win the state, but “you would rather be Donald Trump in Georgia right now.” Harris is underperforming Biden’s 2020 result in 28 of the 159 counties.

The battleground is now very much in the 3 “rust belt” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. At this point, Trump is ahead in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but there’s still a while to go.  The “blue wall” is going to be as crucial in the US election as it was in ours.

The Harris campaign does not expect the contest to be resolved tonight.

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Nancy Pelosi predicts that the Democrats will win the House

Nancy Pelosi told CNN today:

“Hakeem Jeffries will be the speaker of the House. I don’t know what the margin will be, but I know that we have the votes to win the House.”

With the Republicans highly likely to take control of the US Senate, this suggests a split congress for whoever becomes the next President.

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5 million people unable to get through to their doctor as Lib Dems warn GPs must be exempt from Budget tax hike

  • One in four people who contacted their GP in the past month couldn’t get through on the day they called
  • Lib Dems warn that the government’s National Insurance hike is a “tax on community care” that will make crisis worse
  • Party calls for GPs to be exempt from the tax hike alongside other health and care provider

Over 5 million people tried to contact their GP in the past month but failed to get through on the day they called, House of Commons Library research commissioned by the Liberal Democrats has revealed.

The Liberal Democrats are calling for GPs to be exempt from the employers National Insurance rise, as well as social care providers, warning that it is a “tax on community care.”

The Library’s research, based on an ONS survey published on the 10th October, showed that 22.4 million people tried to contact their GP in the previous 28 days. Of these, 5.2 million were unable to get through to their GP on the day that they called, meaning nearly one in four people who wanted to get through to their GP could not.

According to the Library’s research, a further 1.2 million people were unsuccessful in contacting their GP at all that month.

It comes amid warnings the hike to the employers’ National Insurance (NI) rate from 13.8% to 15% in the budget will push up GP surgery staff costs.

The government has not set money aside to compensate surgeries for this increase and GP surgeries are not eligible for Employment Allowance that shields the smallest employers from the rise in NI.

For example an employee earning £30,000 a year will cost the practice an additional £866 and the average GP surgery will see their annual costs increase significantly.

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2-3 November 2024 – the weekend’s press releases

  • Over 9000 farms in Labour constituencies could be hit by “tractor tax” as Lib Dems call on govt to scrap the hike
  • Partygate comments: Clear the Conservative party hasn’t learnt anything

Over 9000 farms in Labour constituencies could be hit by “tractor tax” as Lib Dems call on govt to scrap the hike

An estimated 9,079 farms in Labour constituencies could be hit by the “tractor tax” Liberal Democrat analysis has revealed. Liberal Democrats have called on the government to scrap the planned changes to inheritance tax relief for farms announced in this week’s Budget.

The worst affected Labour seats were Penrith and …

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Ed Davey reacts to Kemi Badenoch becoming Conservative leader

Ed Davey has congratulated Kemi Badenoch on her election as leader of the Conservative Party and has pledged that the Liberal Democrats will be providing the strongest opposition to the Labour Government:

I’d like to congratulate Kemi Badenoch on being elected leader of the Conservative Party. The election of the first Black leader of a major UK political party is a historic moment for the country.

Voters across the country believe her party is too divided, out-of-touch and unable to accept Conservative failures over the past years.

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1 November 2024 – today’s press releases

  • GP and care home tax hike: Govt must not make same mistakes as Conservatives
  • Ed Davey warns inheritance tax change could create ‘lost generation’ of farmers
  • Conservative Leadership: contest has shown refusal to take responsibility for the damage they did
  • NICs hike: Govt must scrap “GP penalty” immediately
  • Cole-Hamilton responds to Edinburgh Halloween disorder
  • Cole-Hamilton: Next UK Conservative leader will not stand up for Scotland

GP and care home tax hike: Govt must not make same mistakes as Conservatives

Commenting on reports that GPs and care homes have voiced concerns about the rise in employer National Insurance Contributions announced in the budget, Liberal Democrat Health and Social Care Spokesperson Helen Morgan MP said:

After years of mismanagement by the former Conservative government, this budget was an opportunity to rescue GP surgeries from years of neglect.

We are urging the Chancellor to change course, and exempt GPs from a tax hike. This new government must not make the same mistakes as the Conservatives, fixing the GP crisis is crucial for saving the NHS.

If people can be checked quicker, fewer will end up in hospital for treatment. That’s better for patients, better for the NHS and better for taxpayers.

Ed Davey warns inheritance tax change could create ‘lost generation’ of farmers

  • Davey calls on the Chancellor to reverse changes made to farmers’ inheritance tax
  • The party has raised the alarm over concerns of a ‘lost generation’ of farmers
  • Around 70,000 farms will be impacted by the changes to the Agricultural Property Relief scheme
  • Lib Dem analysis of the Autumn Budget points to a £70m cut to DEFRA’s food and farming budget

Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey has raised concerns over the Autumn Budget creating a ‘lost generation’ of farmers with a double hammer blow to rural communities. It comes as he visits an agricultural college in Maidenhead today with Lib Dem MP Joshua Reynolds.

Analysis by the party raised fears of a £70 million cut to DEFRA’s food and farming budget hidden in the fine print of the Chancellor’s plans, meaning even less government support for farmers who are already struggling after years of chaos and uncertainty caused by the Conservative Party.

In the Budget, the Chancellor also announced sweeping changes to the Agricultural Property Relief scheme which will impact around 70,000 farms. The Liberal Democrats have raised serious concerns that the changes will force many to sell up small family-owned farms – with young people in rural communities across the country robbed of a future in farming as a result.

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ALDC By-Election Report, 31st October

It’s an England exclusive week for by-elections as 7 are held on Halloween, with the Conservatives being the biggest losers on the spooky day. The Lib Dems gained 2 seats and lost 1 from and to the Tories, a net double of seats. A variety of parties also gained or held their seats this week: both the Green Party, Labour, and independents held onto 1, while Reform gained a seat from Labour.

The headline win for the Lib Dems this week was once again in Westmorland & Furness Council. In the Kirkby & Tebay ward, Cllr Adrian Waite gained the seat from the Conservatives with over 82.7% of the votes, more than double what the Lib Dems had last time around. Well done and congrats to Adrian and the team for getting a second overwhelming win in the council in two weeks!

Westmorland & Furness Council, Krikby Stephen & Tebay
Liberal Democrat (Adrian Waite): 887 (82.7%, +48.7%)
Conservative: 186 (17.3%, -24.6%)

The other gain of the Lib Dems, also from the Conservatives, belongs to Hampshire CC, Bishops Waltham ward. Similarly, Cllr Jonathan Williams also more than doubled the Lib Dem vote share to 52.2%, while the Conservative vote collapsed from over 50% to under 35%. Congratulations to Jonathan and the local team for the work put into flipping this ward yellow.

Hampshire CC, Bishops Waltham
Liberal Democrat (Jonathan Williams): 2210 (52.2%, +28.6%)
Conservative: 1431 (33.8%, -23.1%)
Green Party: 477 (11.3% -2.0%)
Labour: 115 (2.7%, -2.6%)

The final battleground ward between the two parties this week sees a Tories gain from the Lib Dems, the only Conservative representation in Stockport MBC as of present. In the Bramhall South & Woodford ward, Sandeep Kashyap kept the Lib Dem vote steady, falling short of first place by less than 200 votes. Thank you and well done to Sandeep and the team for fighting the good fight, it won’t be long until we’re back.

Stockport MBC, Bramhall South & Woodford
Conservative: 1909 (47.9%, +4.6%)
Liberal Democrat (Sandeep Kashyap): 1733 (43.5%, -1.4%)
Reform: 133 (3.3%, new)
Labour: 115 (2.9%, -4.2%)
Green Party: 95 (2.4%, -2.4%)

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Mark Pack’s October report: Putting our plans in place for this Parliament

The benefit of more MPs, part 1

Who gets to present a Private Members’ Bill in the House of Commons with enough debating time to have a decent chance of passing is all down to luck. There is a literal ballot of MPs to see who gets to go first, who second and so on… All luck – except each party makes its own luck, because the more MPs it has, the more of its MPs can enter the ballot and the better the chances of some of your team coming up high in the ballot.

So it was both luck and election winning leaflets festooned with bar charts that meant two Lib Dem MPs came out very high up in the ballot for Private Members’ Bills in the House of Commons.

We now know what they are going to use their slots for. Max Wilkinson, who came second, is going to promote solar power. Roz Savage, who came third, is also promoting an environmental measure by reviving the Climate and Nature Bill.

The two other Lib Dems in the top twenty are Danny Chambers, with an animal welfare bill, and Wendy Chamberlain, previously successful with her Carer’s Leave Act, with a bill to lift the limits on fundraising through charity lotteries.

Good luck to them all.

The benefit of more MPs, part 2

Whatever the timing, it would always have been welcome news that the government is commissioning an independent review into the scandal of draconian penalties imposed on carers for innocent errors in benefit claims.

But it is no coincidence that it came the day before the Liberal Democrat instigated debate on this very topic in Parliament.

How many such opportunities we get – whether it is opposition day debates, questions at Prime Minister’s Questions or similar – is very closely and formulaically linked to how many MPs we have.

More MPs, more opportunities.

Budget and strategy

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31 October 2024 – today’s press releases

  • Ed Davey: Exempt social care from National Insurance tax hike
  • Budget: online gambling tax “a missed opportunity” for fairer NHS and care funding
  • Govt makes new commitment to create a ‘national cancer plan’ at Lib Dem led debate
  • Scot Lib Dems respond to government ditching pilot of juryless trials

Ed Davey: Exempt social care from National Insurance tax hike

Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey has called on the government to exempt social care from the employer’s National Insurance tax rise.

The Chancellor has provided extra funding for the NHS and other public sector organisations to cover the cost of the tax rise. However, the vast majority of care providers are private and so won’t benefit from this help.

98% of care providers – 18,000 organisations – are small employers. The Liberal Democrats have said care providers including care homes and those providing care in people’s homes should be exempt from the National Insurance tax hike.

Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey said:

Hammering small businesses with a tax hike is the wrong choice. It will hit people’s wages and jobs, but it also risks worsening the NHS crisis by hiking costs for care providers and pushing some to the brink.

It just shows that yet again the government seems to have forgotten about care. At the very least, the Chancellor should be exempting social care from this costly jobs tax.

Budget: online gambling tax “a missed opportunity” for fairer NHS and care funding

Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey is calling on the Government to double the tax on online gambling firms as a “much fairer” way to raise money for the NHS and social care.

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Who are our representatives on Select Committees in the new Parliament?

This post updates our earlier one here.

The wonderful aspect of being a parliamentary party that is substantial in size is that we have had to have a set of internal appointments that matter greatly in terms of parliament and what our parliament prioritises over the next 5 years.

These appointments fit into two categories; select committee appointments, and front bench (spokesperson) appointments.

Now completed, the two sets of appointments will make a crucial difference to how we form a constructive opposition to the new government. You can view our spokesperson team here.

What are parliamentary committees?

Parliamentary Committees are committees with specific remits, challenged with the task of holding the government to account.

So who is who on the committees?

Committee on Standards

Remit: oversee the role of the Parliamentary Commissioner on Standards

  1. Anna Sabine

Committee on Privileges

Remit: to oversee parliamentary privilege. An example of their work was their investigation into the conduct of Boris Johnson

  1. Anna Sabine

Administration  Committee

Remit: how services provided to MPs and their staff work and how they are offered.

  1. Tessa Munt
  2. Max Wilkinson

Backbench Business Committee

Remit: deciding the business of the commons for roughly a day a week.

No Lib Dem nominations

Business and Trade Select Committee

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