Category Archives: Op-eds

Ben Rich

But what happens next?

By Ben Rich | Sun 17th March 2024 - 7:45 am

A political collapse along the lines of that suffered by the Canadian Conservatives in 1993 – when they fell from a Parliamentary majority to just 2 seats – has long been the stuff of fantasy in British politics.  Such implosions hardly ever happen in Western democracies and yet the chances a near repeat by the British Conservatives later this year have climbed from “impossible” to merely “highly improbably”.

Conservatives whips are struggling, I am told, to identify more than fifty colleagues confident of victory in the Autumn, while the steady trickle of senior Conservative MPs standing down – Theresa May last week, Brandon Lewis this – reinforces the impression of sinking ships and guinea pig-like rodents.

Lee Anderson’s defection to Reform UK is likely to be more an effect than a cause of decline but party leaders fear that things could quickly snowball, were others to follow suit.  And that’s without Farage showing his hand, which many suspect could tip the Conservative party over the edge.

In a ‘normal’ election, the roughly 35-40% of the right-wing vote consolidates over the course of the campaign around the Conservatives, driven by fear of the alternative, but what if Labour is insufficiently fear-inspiring to drive voters home and the right wing vote splits down the middle?

It is perfectly conceivable that the Conservatives and Reform UK might each finish on between 15% and 20% with the Lib Dems just behind on 10%-12%.  Under the perversities of first past the post, Labour might then reasonably expect 400+ seats in return for its 40-42% vote share, with the Conservatives might indeed plunge below 100 with the Lib Dems either side of fifty.  Meanwhile, a disgruntled Reform UK, despite potentially even coming second in terms of the popular vote, might be lucky to return more than the handful of seats the Liberal party achieved with its 19% of the vote in February 1974.

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Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: The Schumer Speech

By Tom Arms | Sat 16th March 2024 - 9:28 am

Senator Chuck Schumer is America’s senior American politician. He is also the Senate Majority Leader. So when attacks the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and calls for fresh elections to oust him, people sit up and take notice.

The left-wing of the Democratic Party love it, and it is doubtful that Schumer would have spoken without first clearing the speech with his close friend and political ally President Biden.

The Israeli government is furious. “Israel is not a banana republic,” it fumed. “Senator Schumer is expected to respect Israel’s elected government and not undermine it. This is always true and even more so in time of war.”

The Israelis words were echoed by ranking Senate Republican Mitch McConnell. As soon as Schumer sat down, McConnell jumped to his feet to rebut: “Israel is not a colony of America…. Only Israelis should have a say in who forms their government. Either we respect their decision or we disrespect their democracy.”

And therein lies the rub. With all its faults – and it has many – Israel is a vibrant democracy. Its oft-held general elections regularly achieve turnouts of between 60 to 70 percent. There is a lively free press and the public are free to take to the streets and demonstrate whenever—and they do, often. They also keep re-electing Netanyahu.

The latest opinion polls, are not, however, good news for the prime minister and his Likud Party. They show that Likud would drop thirteen Knesset seats from 33 to 20 if an election was held today. The big winner would be Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party who are expected to jump from 20 to 32 seats.

Gantz has called for a “two entity” solution to the Arab-Israeli problem. He has not, however, defined “entity” and so far has supported Netanyahu’s attacks on Gazans and refusal to accept a ceasefire. Israeli can no longer live alongside Hamas, he said, “this reality has to change.”

A Gantz government is unlikely to bring peace. This is because most Israelis are not in favour of the conditions that would create it.

For a start, to form a government, Gantz would need 61 out of the 120 Knesset seats. The problem is that – other than roughly 10 seats held by Israeli-Arab politicians—only one political party, Meretz, is wholly committed to the two-state solution. They currently have no Knesset seats and are projected to win only five if an election was held now. The centre-right Yesh Atid led by former TV anchor Yair Lapid, endorses talking with the Palestinians and an end to West Bank settlements. But it stops short of the two-state solution.

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Caron Lindsay

What’s on at Conference today?

By Caron Lindsay | Sat 16th March 2024 - 6:55 am

I’m writing this in my bed in York on Friday morning, propped up in bed with lots of plump and luscious pillow, a cup of Earl Grey at my side.

I arrived here on Thursday lunchtime and spent an enjoyable afternoon in the pub (me drinking tea I’ll have you know) with my friends.

In the evening we went to Toto’s the Italian near the Barbican. Eat there if you get the chance. The food was brilliant and the company stunningly good. I had prawns with avocado and Marie Rose sauce – a very generous portion – and then tagliatelle with a creamy salmon sauces. The Tiramisu was chocolate and creamy though I would have added more amaretto.

Afterwards back to the Mason’s Arms, traditionally Awkward Squad HQ and where 6 of us are staying. It was great to catch up with Our Hero of Rochdale Iain Donaldson and hear all the stuff about the by-election.

Generally the party is in good shape as we approach what might be our last Conference before the General Election. Rishi Sunak has ruled out 2 May, but not 9, 16, 23, etc etc. Honestly, I think most of us wish he’s just bloody get on with it.

We are anxious though. We know that so much brilliant work has gone into building extremely strong foundations in our target seats. We should do well. We know how important it is to get rid of the Conservatives. They are ruining our public services and doing all they can to make people suspicious of each other and worse.

The last thing we want is to wake up the morning after the election to another five years of their incompetence, disdain for ordinary people, division and lack of ideas. We will want to hear an inspiring melody that will attract voters to us.

Our slogan, For a Fair Deal, is not uniquely liberal and we need to have a key USP as part of our offer. It could go the way of Put Recovery First and end up being adopted by everyone and neutralised at the start of the campaign. People vote with their emotions and we need to give them some good ones.

Anyway, here’s what’s on today with a bit of added commentary. All details, including the text of motions are available here. I want to be in the hall at 4pm. It’ll be good:

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Rob Parsons

The shadow of Covid

By Rob Parsons | Fri 15th March 2024 - 9:40 am

Today is Long Covid Awareness day. It is strange that such a day should be necessary, given how many people’s lives Covid and Long Covid have touched in this country and around the world. Yet it is very necessary as the prevailing public discourse is that Covid is over, and it was never much of a problem to start with. Yet it still kills every week throughout the year, and an estimated 2 million people have Long Covid, affecting their health, and the country’s economy.

The ongoing Covid pandemic is a catastrophic example of the failures of the UK’s public health system. (I refer here primarily to English experience. The devolved administrations have done better than England, but are still affected to a large and tragic extent by the factors discussed below.) Covid requires both treatment and prevention, both medical and public health intervention, and both short and long term strategies with public, professional and political support.

The NHS did immensely well and the government moderately well in the initial phases; the public in general also did well in dealing with the restrictions and exigencies of lockdown. But there were clearly right from the beginning several negatives, which broadly compromised the capacity of public health approaches to be as effective as they could, and have badly compromised government action and professional and public response in the years since the emergency phase:

a) the instinctive reaction of our right wing governments that private provision must be better than public, so wasting billions of taxpayers’ pounds employing immensely expensive private firms to set up a ramshackle test and trace system rather than using existing public health capacity.

b) corruption in government, making sure for instance that funds for the provision of PPE went to their friends rather than to companies with proven track records in such provision.

c) vociferous anti-science and anti-clear thinking conspiracists given far too much air time on both social and traditional media.

d) a kind of neoliberal reductionism in which marginal increases in economic activity like enabling people to go to pubs again are valued far more than keeping people healthy; and school attendance is valued far more highly than reducing transmission – which has resulted in current high rates of absence of both children and teachers through sickness.

e) a refusal from government to take simple steps that might reduce transmission, such as ensuring air filtration in all classrooms and other public spaces which could easily and relatively cheaply have been done in the last four years.

f) short term and blinkered thinking in government and in public debate, in which the most important, and sometimes, the only important metric is death rates, leading us to ignore the creeping epidemic of long term illness and other forms of severe damage which Covid is wreaking on millions of people. We seem to be terrible at assessing long term risk: the fact that we got over a bout of Covid means we ignore the mountain of evidence that it will have done damage to one or more of our organs, which we will regret in ten or fifteen years time.

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Robin Stafford

Health Podcast – The Elephant in the Room

By Robin Stafford | Thu 14th March 2024 - 2:38 pm

It’s pretty clear that the NHS is at the top of most voters’ priorities, with big concerns about access to GPs, lengthy waiting lists, and a sense that it has been starved of funds and resources.  To add to the NHS’s problems, the country has very poor levels of health with an ageing population, which are big drivers of demand on the NHS.  It is sometimes described as a national sickness rather than a health service. This has much wider economic and social impacts, not least in the number of people unable to work because of health issues.

Many different factors cause ill health and most lie outside the NHS itself.  Diet, exercise, housing, and poverty are just a few examples. The reports by Sir Michael Marmot go into the detail.  This makes ill health a particular challenge to tackle, but unless we tackle it, demand on the NHS will grow unmanageably along with the costs.

To discuss these issues, Green Book Pod is back with another episode in our series on key issues for the Liberal Democrats, now available on Lib Dem Podcast and on YouTube.

Chairing the session is Norman Lamb, who was a LibDem MP and a health minister.  He now chairs the South London and Maudsley NHS Trust and co-chairs the Health Devolution Commission.

Bringing a perspective from inside the NHS, Wendy Taylor was an oncology consultant.  She is also a LibDem councillor in Newcastle City and is currently the chair of the Health and Social Care Committee.

Roy Lilley and Ed Smith are collaborating on a book about the subject, which they refer to as the ‘elephant in the room’, and last year published 200 Questions for the Future of the NHS.  Roy is a health policy analyst, writer, broadcaster and commentator on NHS. He has been the vice chairman of a health authority and chair of an NHS trust, and has taught at both Imperial College and Nottingham University.  Ed Smith was the chair of NHS Improvement, and deputy chair of NHS England.  He now supports a number of health organisations along with other advisory roles in the UK health economy.

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Mary Reid

The Government’s new definition of extremism raises many concerns

By Mary Reid | Thu 14th March 2024 - 9:56 am

On the day after the Rochdale by-election Rishi Sunak stood outside No 10 and gave a speech about countering extremism. It was one of those speeches that it was difficult to disagree with, but it was designed as a softener to today’s announcement about the Government’s new definition of extremism.  The definition is not only controversial in its own right, but is also accompanied by instructions to civil servants which are open to a range of interpretations.

According to the new definition, extremism is

the promotion or advancement of an ideology based on violence, hatred or intolerance, that aims to:

  1. negate or destroy the fundamental rights and freedoms of others; or
  2. undermine, overturn or replace the UK’s system of liberal parliamentary democracy and democratic rights; or
  3. intentionally create a permissive environment for others to achieve the results in (1) or (2).

Compare that with the old definition which states that extremism is

vocal or active opposition to fundamental British values, including democracy, the rule of law, individual liberty and mutual respect and tolerance of different faiths and belief.

The difference, of course, is that the new definition focuses on ideology instead of action, and that is notoriously difficult to establish.  Of particular concern is the phrase “undermine … the UK’s system of liberal parliamentary democracy”, which could be invoked to castigate organisations that are “intolerant” of a proposed Government Bill and seek to undermine its passage through Parliament, even if they only protest peacefully.

In a further move government departments are told that they should not co-operate with organisations that fall under the new definition. But the key question here is who will make that decision?

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Victor Chamberlain

The building blocks to a sustainable built environment

By Victor Chamberlain | Wed 13th March 2024 - 4:12 pm

Did you know the UK’s built environment is responsible for 42% of carbon emissions, 62% of waste and 50% of material use? These shocking statistics highlight why buildings, infrastructure and land use must be central to our approach to addressing the climate and biodiversity emergency.

Last night I attended the launch of Building Blocks, a manifesto to transform the Built Environment and turn a climate catastrophe into a climate opportunity. The climate emergency can often feel daunting and insurmountable. But it was truly uplifting to join experts focused on practical, implementable, and positive responses. Adopting optimistic, radical alternative approaches can turn waste and climate headaches into solutions to build a fairer, greener, and more prosperous planet.

Architects Declare —a movement of over 1300 architectural practices in the UK – are advocating for a more sustainable built environment. Their message is clear: our current approach to design and construction is not enough to address the urgent climate crisis. We must embrace fundamental change, aligning ourselves with regenerative models to secure a sustainable future for generations to come.

The evidence is undeniable. Despite three decades of sustainable design efforts, we are still far from meeting our climate goals.

Building Blocks is a bold vision for transformation, rooted in systemic change. It outlines practical steps to reduce carbon emissions, promote circular economies, and restore social and natural infrastructure. It’s a roadmap for creating a built environment that not only mitigates climate change, but also fosters thriving communities and ecosystems.

Key among these Building Blocks is the imperative to prioritise resource efficiency. We need legislation to limit embedded carbon emissions in construction (greenhouse gas emissions generated from producing and transporting goods), minimise carbon emission from buildings and align building standards with net zero trajectories (France has already done this). Business can support this and some do. Speaking at the launch Kevin McCloud, from Grand Designs, cited the case of a developer in the North West who builds to passive house standards and still make a decent profit. The more this type of development becomes the norm the quicker costs will come down too.

Local authorities also need greater powers to demand higher standards from developers. Westminster City Council recently unveiled a ‘retrofit first’ approach. It’s facing resistance from those used to traditional development, but it is worth persevering with.  A nationwide retrofit strategy would create around 500,000 jobs, a £300bn boost to the economy , and eliminate fuel poverty—all while reducing emissions from existing buildings. It’s good for the planet, and good for our pockets too. If every home in Manchester were retrofitted it would save £10bn in energy bills.

Transitioning to a circular economy is another vital component. Health, wealth, and wellbeing all improve in a circular economy. By reducing waste and maximising material reuse, we can not only cut carbon emissions but also stimulate economic growth, and protect natural resources. Financial incentives and removing VAT on retrofit would support this shift, encouraging businesses to prioritise sustainability. We need to make sure we are designing all buildings with deconstruction and the reuse of materials in mind.

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Tony Vickers

Solving the crisis in Local Government

By Tony Vickers | Wed 13th March 2024 - 11:55 am

What’s the point of a Motion bemoaning a crisis but failing to suggest a solution?

Liberal Democrats have conferences to decide Party policy, not indulge in hand-wringing! Declaring that local government has a funding crisis without stating what we’d do about wastes our time and money as conference-goers. That’s why I’m asking for a reference back to FPC for F23 at York.

The Party last seriously debated local government  and its funding in 1998 – the year I co-founded ALTER. We’ve progressed since then but in 2019 we funked the big one: reform of Council Tax.

In the 1998 policy paper the most significant citation was a 1996 House of Lords report that “demolished the circular argument” that local government expenditure is all part of national government expenditure, saying it’s “Humpty Dumpty” logic! Its only because Treasury says so and only because councils are over-controlled and haven’t in living memory had real freedom of action: “other economies can be successful while doing things differently” (4.1.5).

If we believe in devolution then what Whitehall compels councils to do, as minimum levels of statutory services, ought to be funded centrally – 100%, taking appropriate account of geographic and demographic differences in cost of delivering services. Councillors should only be held to account by local electors for how efficiently they use those external funds. 

Anything that democratically elected councils decide to do in addition should be 100% funded from local taxes, set locally using their local choice of tax bases, as was decided by Conference in 1999.

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Lord William Wallace

Which dangers to democracy threaten most?

By Lord William Wallace | Tue 12th March 2024 - 9:54 am

‘Democracy’, Boris Johnson wrote in his weekly Daily Mail; column on March 8th, ‘is always more fragile than you think.’   But what are the most direct threats to British democracy which we face at present?

For the Prime Minister, Michael Gove, many other Conservatives and the right-wing press, the most urgent threats come from Islamist terrorism and disorder on the streets.  Pro-Palestinian demonstrations in London may have been non-violent but are seen to be intimidating; climate-change activists have blocked streets, and put banners on the Prime Minister’s constituency home.  Gove will be issuing a new definition of extremism later this week, which is expected to focus on Muslim organizations and direct-action groups for ecological issues; how far it will also flag up right-wing extremists remains contested within the government and the right-wing media.

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Mo Waqas

Embracing Ramadan

By Mo Waqas | Mon 11th March 2024 - 2:15 pm

As the blossoms of spring unfold, I feel compelled to share a glimpse into a significant part of my life as a Muslim,the sacred month of Ramadan.

Ramadan’s Essence in Great Britain

Residing in the vibrant cultural mosaic of Great Britain, Ramadan takes on a distinctive and meaningful role. This holy month isn’t just a personal spiritual expedition but a collective experience that transcends cultural lines, fostering understanding in the midst of diversity.

The Significance of Ramadan for Muslims

For Muslims, Ramadan is more than a period of fasting from dawn till sunset; it’s a …

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 10th March 2024 - 10:50 am

Keep your eye on Israeli politician Benny Gantz. He is currently the bookies’ favourite to be Israel’s next Prime Minister.

More importantly, he has hinted at a willingness to discuss the two-state solution.

This has put him in direct conflict with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the far-right coalition members of his government. They are totally opposed to the two-state solution which is being pushed by the US, Europe, the Arab world and virtually everyone except Netanyahu and Co.

Gantz’s political flexibility earned him an invitation to visit Washington where this week he met with Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

The visit was not cleared with Netanyahu who ordered Michael Herzog, Israel’s ambassador in Washington, to do everything possible to sabotage the Gantz visit.

And when the minister-without-portfolio returned he was told by Netanyahu that “Israel has only one prime minister.” That prime minister, it must be said, has yet to receive an invitation to visit the Biden White House.

Gantz is leader of the National Unity Party. Like so many Israeli politicians he came through the ranks of the military, eventually becoming army chief of staff in 2012. Then in 2018 he decided to turn his hand to politics and very quickly emerged as the main opposition figure to Netanyahu.

After the October 7 attack by Hamas, Netanyahu invited Gantz to join a national unity war cabinet, along with three other members of his party

Gantz accepted and is in full agreement with Netanyahu on the need for total victory over Hamas. But the two men part company over what happens next.

Netanyahu is adamant in his refusal to discuss a two-state solution or anything even remotely resembling a two=state solution.

But in 2020, Gantz told the Munich Security Conference: “Eventually we will find ourselves a two-entity solution in which we respect Palestinian sovereignty and governance but we will be respected for our security needs.”

Despite repeated questioning by journalists and others, Gantz refused to define “entity.” But position was clear enough to prompt far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to describe Benny Gantz as the “weak link” in Israel’s war cabinet. This week Smotrich stood up in the Knesset and demanded that Gantz declare his opposition to the two-state solution. Gantz’s reply was a deafening silence.

Meanwhile the minister-without-portfolio continues to rise in the opinion polls and Netanyahu continues to fall. According to a poll this week by Israel’s Channel 10, voters believe that Netanyahu is prolonging the war for his own political ends. According to the poll, voters think that the prime minister knows that when the war ends he will unceremoniously be voted out of office and – without immunity from prosecution–face a series of long-standing corruption charges.

The Sudanese Civil War is a forgotten war. It shouldn’t be.

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Mo Waqas

Pan-European solidarity – shielding Ukraine from Russia’s desperation

By Mo Waqas | Sat 9th March 2024 - 10:30 am

As I contemplate the current state of the world, Russia relentlessly continues its barbaric bombardment of Ukraine, while, seemingly, the US Republicans play the fiddle as Ukraine burns. Reflecting on the past two years of this disastrous occupation of Ukraine, the initial unity and support pledged by the United Kingdom, the United States of America, and the European Union seem to falter. Certain elements in the United States and Europe, Hungary notably, lean towards a path of apathy and appeasement, potentially jeopardising any efforts to curb Putin’s hunger for rebuilding the Russian Empire.

With each passing day, Russia grows more desperate, seeking weaponry from the hermit kingdom of North Korea. Rumours circulate that Mr. Putin plans to visit North Korea post what is sarcastically referred to as “free and fair elections” in Russia. However, the stark reality is that the special operation in Ukraine has utterly failed, leaving Russia increasingly isolated from the rest of the world. Britain, in response, pledges a substantial £2.5 billion to support the war effort, and the French contemplate the deployment of European troops in Ukraine. A move that I fear might escalate tensions to the point of an all-out war with the Russian state.

My primary concern revolves around the potential re-election of a certain Donald Trump. As an isolationist leader with little interest in the safety of Europe unless a considerable price is paid, Europe can no longer rely on the United States. This realisation marks a sombre day for both European and British politics. In response, the European Union introduces the European Defence Industrial Strategy, outlining the aim to purchase 40% of defence equipment from Europe by 2030. Additionally, half of their defence procurement budget is to be allocated to products made within Europe.

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Tom Arms

Observations of an ex pat: Unthinkable

By Tom Arms | Sat 9th March 2024 - 8:30 am

The European Union is preparing for what was unthinkable—American withdrawal from NATO.

They have been spurred into action not just by Donald Trump’s offer to Vladimir Putin to “do what you want” with any NATO member who fails to devote two percent of their GDP to defence.

No, Europeans detect 1—a growing undercurrent of isolationism; 2- an American perception that the biggest threat to their national interests lie in Asia; 3- that Americans feel that Europeans have taken advantage of American military largesse for too long and 4- Even the greatest military power in the history of the world can’t fight a two-front war in Asia and Europe.

None of the above concerns take into account the many benefits America derives from membership of NATO. And the fact is, that Americans, especially MAGA Republicans, are in no mood to listen.

That is why this week the EU launched its European Defense Industry Strategy. At the moment the US supplies about half of the armaments required by its European allies. If Europe is to stand alone then it needs an armaments industry to supplies its troops.

Launching the EDI Strategy, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called on EU members to spend at least half of their defense procurement budgets on European-produced weaponry.

To encourage national defense ministries to “buy European,” the commission is dangling a few carrots. For a start, they are offering to exempt ministries from paying VAT on EU-made guns and bullets.

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Mary Reid

A strategy for winning more seats in Westminster

By Mary Reid | Thu 7th March 2024 - 10:50 am

Lib Dem members have received an email from Mike Dixon , the party’s CEO. It is one of his long explainer emails and it is full of useful information  – and bar charts! I would strongly advise members to read it in full before commenting below.

In the email Mike discusses our strategy going into a General Election. He asks:

How do we get the balance right between winning in target Westminster seats and making progress right across the country?

What message cuts through to voters right now? What’s the right balance between attacking the Government and setting out a positive vision?

What is the likely outcome at the next election? And what does that mean for our strategy?

I’m not going to spill all the beans here, but there are a couple of points that I want to reflect on.

The first is how to address the challenges of winning more seats under First Past The Post. Mike points out that in 2019 our strategy was to increase our vote share nationally, by focussing on our anti-Brexit stance. It worked. We drew in 1.3 million more votes than in 2017. Under PR that would have given us 80 seats in Parliament, but because we do not yet live under that system we only won 11.

From my perspective we should not see that totally as a failed strategy. What it did do was boost our chances in local elections where elections are more granular. In 2021 we gained control of one more council; in 2022 we added 3 more councils; in 2023 we added a further 12.  Over that period we took 639 MORE council seats.  And we all know that, as a general rule, we don’t win Westminster seats in a General Election unless we have already gained control of the relevant Council seats.

As Mike explains, after 2019 our strategy changed. The new aim was to win as many Westminster seats as possible in 2024, alongside boosting local and regional successes.  We have learnt to our cost the downside of winning fewer seats – as the fourth party in Westminster we have not only lost our privileges in the House, but we also find it much more difficult to attract coverage in the media.

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Caron Lindsay

Lib Dems react to Budget

By Caron Lindsay | Wed 6th March 2024 - 3:49 pm

Well, there you go. Another Conservative budget served with more invective directed against the Lib Dems than you might expect. You would be forgiven for thinking that they were frightened of us in the Blue Wall. Tim Farron was quick to jump in on Twitter:

The Chancellor wouldn’t waste his breath slagging off the Lib Dems if he wasn’t terrified of losing to us.

A speech carefully crafted into soundbytes for social media. Lots of impressive sounding numbers, but being a big number doesn’t mean it’s an adequate number. It’s so annoying when politicians of all flavours do this. Here’s £xoo million to build y million houses. Why don’t they express themselves in terms that actually reflect the human impact and the scale of the problem?  Because their solution is simply not good enough.

Anyway, what do our leaders make of the electioneering effort put in by Jeremy Hunt today? Ed says that it’s time to just get on with the Election:

This is a bottom-of-the-barrel Budget from a Conservative government that has given up on governing. Rishi’s recession is being followed by Hunt’s hangover, with years of unfair tax hikes while local health services are stretched to breaking point.

This Budget had nothing to offer for people seeing their mortgage soar due to Conservative chaos or being left waiting for months in pain for NHS treatment.

The public will see this for what is: a desperate last throw of the dice by a Conservative government that has neglected the NHS, trashed the economy and overseen a record fall in living standards. It couldn’t be clearer that we need a general election now so voters can finally kick this tired and out-of-touch government out of office.

The thing is, people still feel under a lot of economic pressure. They blame the Government for it and that is bound to affect their vote.

By-election winner Helen Morgan echoed Ed’s message:

Don’t be fooled by the Chancellor’s efforts to pull the wool over people’s eyes. This budget won’t touch the sides for people facing soaring mortgage bills, paying more at the fuel pump, and seeing the cost of going to the shops rise every week. We need a General Election now.

Helen also mentioned a crucial omission:

The Chancellor spent a lot of time listing parts of the country today (notable exception of Shropshire). Yet the Budget itself includes NO mention of rural areas and NO mention of farming. Further proof the Conservatives don’t care about the countryside.

Alistair Carmichael says that voters are past listening to the Conservatives;

The Chancellor has tried to paper over a Tory recession and Tory tax hikes which have hit families across the country. Ministers have searched for election gimmicks but voters are past listening. Few would take this government at its word after years of falling living standards.

Wera Hobhouse was right to point out that the extension of the Household Support Fund for 6 months was far from enough to tackle poverty when the safety net has so many holes in it that it is barely there any more:

I am glad that the Chancellor has heeded my calls to extend the Household Support Fund in today’s Spring Budget. But for the thousands in Bath who rely on its support to put food on their plates and heat their homes – a sixth month extension simply doesn’t cut it.

Wendy Chamberlain did highlight one Lib Dem win, though:

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Darryl Smalley

I’ve had enough of nonference (again)

By Darryl Smalley | Tue 5th March 2024 - 4:20 pm

In mid January FCC members were asked to attend an additional meeting, entitled ‘Autumn Conference 2024 – strategy’.

We had a presentation from HQ and followed by a lengthy discussion about merits or otherwise or cancelling autumn conference. I won’t rehearse all the arguments, but in my nine years as a party member I’ve not left a meeting quite so frustrated. It was reminiscent of council officers telling me at budget time that the sky would fall in if we didn’t make savings in a particular area. The sky did not fall in.

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Ben Rich

Public Services or Tax Cuts? Let’s be honest, you can’t have both

By Ben Rich | Tue 5th March 2024 - 9:59 am

The Conservatives seek to frame pretty much every general election (with the exception of “Get Brexit Done”) as Tory tax cuts versus Labour spend.

In 1997, Labour sought to avoid this by ‘shadowing’ Conservative expenditure plans, a trick that Rachel Reeves seems set to repeat in 2024. Hunt’s budget is likely to try to set up the same dilemma by offering tax cuts now, funded by unspecified cuts to public expenditure (meaning public services) somewhere down the line, on the assumption that Reeves – rather than he – will be left to implement them.

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Chris Perry

Wednesday’s budget – a more holistic approach is needed

By Chris Perry | Mon 4th March 2024 - 2:35 pm

Will the chancellor correct the imbalance of his November 2023 Autumn statement in Wednesday’s budget? Or will it be more of the same? By cutting National Insurance from 12% to 10% the chancellor helped the better off to the detriment of the lowest paid on income support and pensioners both of whom were hardest hit by the cost-of-living crisis and do not pay national insurance and therefore saw no benefit. This will have disastrous consequences for the economy.

Component level responses will not solve whole systems problems.

Widening income inequality and increasing poverty are the great social evils of our time. “Trickle Down” economics and the privatisation of public services has created dozens of millionaires and turned millionaires into billionaires whilst the majority are worse off than they were before the 2009 Banking Crisis. There are now 3.9 million children being brought up in poverty in the UK – 2/3rds of whom have a parent in work. These parents are no more able to increase their income than are older people who have no earning or borrowing power. Children brought up in poverty are less likely to do well at school, more likely to have health problems, making a demand upon the NHS, and have a shorter life expectancy. Perhaps, now is the time to follow the example of Japan where there is a positive and significant relationship between directors’ pay and employees’ average wage. Directors and Chief Executives could still have their million pound salaries provided that they paid those on whose hard work they depend proportionately.

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Mark Valladares

Welcome to my day – 4 March 2024

By Mark Valladares | Mon 4th March 2024 - 7:55 am

There’s been a lot of talk about the Rochdale by-election and what it means for our democracy. And much of it has come from Conservatives and been alarmist in tone. My view is that, in a chaotic by-election where the Labour and Green candidates were disowned, and the Conservative absent without trace, those Rochdale voters who bothered to turn up gave the major parties a good kicking. And whilst having George Galloway as their MP solves very few of Rochdale’s real problems, he fought the most effective campaign in the by-election and won accordingly. Opportunistic? Certainly. Likely to change British politics? Not if sensible politicians hold their nerve and demonstrate their principles.

But whilst we’re being told to worry about mob rule, you do wonder about the audacity of Conservative politicians, who’ve pandered to extremists to the extent now that many of them are parroting their line for them, warning us that our democracy is at threat. I’m far more worried about the impact of the likes of Anderson, Braverman and Jenrick, and the gutless prevarication (or worse) of too many Conservative MPs, unable to call out Islamophobia amongst their own and desperately fingerpointing at a Labour Party whose past issues of antisemitism have at least been acknowledged and addressed.

As Liberal Democrats, we should be calling out the failures of individuals rather than making blanket accusations about political parties. All political parties have members whose views are, at the very least, problematic. Our responsibility as political activists is to be as willing to call out our own as we are our opponents. That isn’t easy. The temptation to make allowances for our side as opposed to theirs is great, but if we want a healthier, more decent, body politic, we need to be vigilant and consistent.

The Conservative response appears to be to attempt to scare voters back into their camp solution by “othering” those least likely to vote for them. I lived in London for most of my life, and unless the city has changed fundamentally – and I don’t believe that it has – the influence of Islamist extremists, whatever that means and whoever they are – is limited to say the least. And when Paul Scully, the former Minister for London, suggested that there were no-go areas in our nation’s capital, my first thought was that he’d gone utterly mad. And whilst he has apologised, (“that is not who I am”), I think that his comments were idiotic, playing into the mood of his extremist colleagues, and something more concrete and positive than a mere apology should be forthcoming. A gesture of goodwill towards the people of Tower Hamlets, perhaps, Mr Scully?

But with the Conservatives in chaos, and Reform UK polling at levels which should keep Tory strategists awake at night, the prospect of a crushing defeat looms large and discipline is increasingly hard to come by.

And so to this week’s musical contribution, and given that most of our readers will be hoping for a change of government, here’s something that reflects those hopes, from Aretha Franklin…

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 3rd March 2024 - 10:30 am

NATO

French President Emmanuel Macron set the cat among the NATO pigeons this week when he hinted that France just might – no stronger than might at this stage – send troops to Ukraine.

The suggestion was definitely on the table when 21 Western heads of state or government and six foreign ministers met in Paris this week. Polish President Andresz Duda confirmed it.

It was apparently raised by Macron and we know that the frontline Baltic states of Estonia and Lithuania backed it. We also know that the British, American and Germans vetoed it – for the time being. Everyone else is keeping their cards close to their chests.

On two things the allies were agreed: Russia is stepping up its cyber and disinformation attacks and that some time in the next few years, according to Macron, “we have to be prepared for Russia to attack the (NATO) countries.”

Immediately following the Paris summit, President Vladimir Putin delivered his annual state of the nation address in which he warned that any further NATO involvement in Ukraine “raises the real threat of a nuclear conflict that will mean the destruction of our civilisation.”

On a slightly less apocalyptic note, Putin said that he would be strengthening Russian forces on its Western flank which means recently annexed Eastern Ukraine, the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad and the Russian borders with the Baltic States and new NATO member Finland.

Ideally, NATO would avoid a head to head with Russia by providing Ukraine with the means to keep fighting. But Europe’s defense industries lack the capacity and America’s $60 billion military aid package is being blocked by MAGA Republicans.

One solution was voiced this week by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. She suggested using the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to purchase weapons for Ukraine. The money had been earmarked for reconstruction purposes. But if Ukraine is defeated than there will be nothing to reconstruct.

Russia

Meanwhile, as of this writing, martyred Russian Opposition leader Alexei Navalny is being laid to rest in Moscow’s Borisovskoye Cemetery.

The funeral service was held in a Russian Orthodox Church near the Navalny home in southeast Moscow. A large crowd gathered outside the Church of the Icon of the Mother of God. As Navalny’s body was carried in and out of the church the crowd chanted “Navalny, Navalny” interspersed with “executioners, “executioners”

The church was surrounded by masked police guards who blocked several of Navalny’s closest allies still in Russia from entering the church. They also banned cameras and videos from the church, although Navalny’s supporters were able to broadcast much of the event on a You Tube channel which was watched by hundreds of thousands.

The state media did not report the funeral and the Kremlin, when asked to express condolences, refused to do so.

Navalny’s death is the most high profile and dramatic anti-dissident action by the Putin regime. But it is not the only one. This week 70-year-old Russian human rights activist Oleg Orlov was sentenced to two and a half years for criticising the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Orlov is best known as the co-chair of Memorial, a Russian human rights organisation which was one of three winners of the 2020 Nobel Peace Prize. In October he was fined $1,600 for an article in which the state said he “discredited” the army. Not enough, decreed Putin. So the verdict and sentence were cancelled and Orlov was this week placed on trial for the same crime and this time sent to prison.

Orlov and Navalny are only two of thousands of Russians who have dared to criticise Putin. Most of them have either joined Navalny in the grave or Orlov in prison.

United Kingdom

Islam is the new scapegoat of Europe. Actually, that is not accurate, fear of Islamisation has been around since before the Battle of Tours in 732.

But it appears to have reached a fresh apogee in Britain. And the rest of Europe’s far-right parties are no slouches in the Islamaphobic stakes.

Viktor Orban in Hungary, Marine Le Pen in France, Gert Wilders in the Netherlands, the Swedish Democrats in Sweden…. They have all helped to move the anti-Islam dial and, in doing so, have infected the mainstream political parties.

In Britain it stayed on the distant fringes of the far-right for a long time. Parties such as the British National Party and English Defence League were associated with football hooliganism as much as Islamaphobia.

That started to change with the rise of UKIP and its successor party Reform. They have been gradually chipping away at the right-wing of the Conservative party with the result that the Tories have started to steal some of their anti-Islamic clothes in order to keep their voters.

This became all too apparent this week when Conservative Party Chairman Lee Anderson told the right-wing news channel GB News that the Muslim Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan was controlled by Islamists and that he had given the city away “to his mates.”

For working purposes, the term “Islamists” is generally interpreted as either Islamic extremists or Islamic fundamentalists. I personally know Sadiq Khan. Before I joined Liberal Democrats I had a brief flirtation with the Labour Party and deputised for Sadiq on two occasions when he was my constituency MP. He is almost as far from being an Islamic extremist as the Pope.

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Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Middle East Movement

By Tom Arms | Sat 2nd March 2024 - 10:29 am

Finally, there appears to be a glimmer of progress on the Gaza front.

In the unlikely venue of a New York ice cream parlour, President Joe Biden, revealed this week that he is hopeful for a ceasefire by Monday.

And almost simultaneously, Muhammad Shtayyeh, prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, resigned to make way for a reorganised government for the West Bank and Gaza Strip which could provide an outside chance of leading to recognition of a State of Palestine.

The departure of Shtayyeh comes amidst a flurry of diplomatic meetings involving American, British, EU, and Arab state officials in Riyadh, Paris and Doha.

What appears to be emerging is an agreement for a “temporary” ceasefire of “some weeks” which would involve the release of all the remaining Israeli hostages; the freeing of an unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners and a massive influx of humanitarian aid into Gaza.

That appears to be the bones of a short-term agreement. The long-term is more problematic because it involves a revival of the two-state solution and recognition of a reconstituted Palestinian Authority as a Palestinian state.

The idea was mooted back in January by British Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron as part of a carrot and stick approach that involved British support for Israel as the flip side of the diplomatic coin.

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Mo Waqas

Facing the facts: a reality check for the Prime Minister

By Mo Waqas | Sat 2nd March 2024 - 8:48 am

In his recent address the Prime Minister expressed concerns about internal forces threatening our nation’s unity.

This led me to ponder whether these forces include those that fuelled the divisive Brexit atmosphere, spearheaded by figures like Nigel Farage and the 21st-century version of Enoch Powell.

Our country has grappled with division since the Conservative Party’s risky move in Europe, fostering deep-seated animosity. It’s crucial to recognize that this hatred isn’t isolated to a particular group, Palestinian or Israeli; it has festered for over a decade.

Austerity measures, police force cuts, and reductions in vital social services initiated this discord. The poor grew poorer, while the affluent one percent thrived, with media playing a pivotal role in alienating the most marginalized in our society.

Does Mr. Sunak genuinely believe the British people have forgotten his former Home Secretary’s statement. Suella Braverman asserted:

The British people are compassionate. We will always support those genuinely homeless. But our streets cannot be overrun by rows of tents, housing people—many from abroad—living on the streets as a lifestyle choice.

So, I find myself questioning the Prime Minister: Who chooses to be homeless, and who chooses to be born poor? The reality is, no one does.

Under this Conservative government, marginalised society faces relentless attacks. As the party falters, we find ourselves in the grip of a cost-of-living crisis, bringing ordinary folks to their knees. Our most vulnerable can’t afford to heat their homes, facing exorbitant electricity and gas bills. For many, it became a choice between heating or eating.

In a nation like Great Britain, such desperate measures should not be necessary.

The real problem, Mr. Sunak, lies in your party’s jingoism and love for populism. In Great Britain, we celebrate our diversity. When the Prime Minister urges us to face down extremists, will he start with his own party?

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Leon Duveen

How can we find peace?

By Leon Duveen | Fri 1st March 2024 - 4:57 pm

A couple of week ago, I responded to a post in a Facebook Group trying to create a grassroots movement for peace between Israelis and Palestinians.  The post challenged us to outline our vision for peace, this was my response:

My vision for Peace isn’t a detailed plan. Simply, it is that Palestinians and Israelis, Jews and Arabs, Christians, Jews and Muslims learn to accept each other, learn that to live in that small sliver of land between the River and the Sea they must share it with people with a different background, different history, different beliefs but with a shared hope that their children can grow & thrive without the threat of war.

If we can achieve that, the details of the political solution will be easy to decide; unless we can achieve that, no solution will succeed.

There are two other pieces of writing I want to share here.  The first is an (long) article written by an acquaintance in Notts Friends of Standing Together titled There is no Magic Peace Fairy.   It tries to examine how people on both sides have become blind to the suffering of those on the other side, why good people are trapped by their own history to ignore the fact that most people on the opposite side also trapped in their history.  It is a hard read and made think about my own preconceptions and how open was I to having them challenged.

The other is a novel written by Haviva Ner-David called Hope Valley.  Set in 2000, after the failure of the Clinton/Arafat/Brak Camp David Summit, mostly around a Moshav in the Galilee that was built on the ruins of a Palestinian village cleared by the Hagenah during the 1948 war and the neighbouring Palestinian village where some of the refugees from the ruined village now live.  It looks at the intertwined lives of two artists, both with a serious illness, both with deep links to the land both who need to overcome their own misunderstandings & preconceptions.

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Katharine Pindar

Polly, the Liberal Democrats are on the case already

By Katharine Pindar | Thu 29th February 2024 - 4:02 pm

In the Guardian on Tuesday (February 27) Polly Toynbee wrote a powerful Opinion piece entitled (in the print version), ‘The Tories have miscalculated: Britons do care about poverty’. Quoting the Institute for Public Policy Research’s figures, that despite the increase in the local housing allowance from April, more than 800,000 renting households receiving housing benefit will still have to fund the gap between their rent and their benefit, Polly also cites a new Action for Children report finding that many families are falling below the breadline, even when both parents work full-time on the minimum wage.

‘The gap between what universal credit provides and what a family needs to survive is growing by the month’, she reports, with Citizens Advice apparently counting 5 million people trapped ‘on a negative budget’, with incomes that will never cover their bills, and 2.35 million going hungry. This ‘national emergency’, so named by the Child Poverty Action Group, has escalated sharply in the last two years.

It was in the York Spring Conference last year that our party passed motion F12, ‘Towards a Fairer Society’. This was based on the policy paper 150 of the same name, drawn up by a party policy working group in the previous winter. The motion states that Conference welcomes the paper’s proposals to ‘End deep poverty, including a radical overhaul of the welfare system, so no family ever has to use a food bank in Britain, by

  1. Taking immediate steps to repair the safety net, including restoring the £20 uplift to Universal Credit, introducing emergency grants (not loans) and stopping deducting debt repayments at unaffordable rates and
  2. Following this up in the longer term with fundamental reforms to the welfare system’.

Conference then decided to introduce a Guaranteed Basic Income by increasing Universal Credit to the level required to end deep poverty within a decade and removing sanctions. It was already party policy to remove the benefit cap.

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Geoffrey Payne

Three top tier Lib Dem candidates to speak at the Social Liberal Forum pre-conference lunch in York 

By Geoffrey Payne | Thu 29th February 2024 - 1:34 pm

By the end of the year and after the next general election and the prospects are that we could have 30 or more Lib Dem MPs. In fact, if Nigel Farage decides to lead the Reform party and split the right wing vote even more we could easily win more seats from the Conservatives and have over 50 MPs.

So what would our new Parliamentary party look like?

Lib Dem conference in York officially starts at 4.30pm on the Friday 15th March. So we in the Social Liberal Forum have decided to organise our “pre-conference lunch” event earlier in the day with 3 top tier candidates; Bobby Dean (Carsharlton and Wallington), Victoria Collins (Harpenden and Berkhamsted) and Josh Babarinde (Eastbourne) as speakers.

They will talk about their personal journey from deciding to join the party to becoming candidates in these very marginal seats. They will discuss the challenges ahead, winning over Leave voters (both Carshalton and Eastbourne voted to leave the EU which explains why we lost those seats in 2019) and how MPs representing the prosperous “Blue Wall” seats may be able to work to benefit people living in the deprived communities in the “Red Wall” seats. They will also share their vision of what it means to be a Lib Dem MP in 2024 and beyond.

Tickets for this event are limited and must be bought in advance. So if you want to come along then book now and take advantage of the early bird rate. Book here: 2024 Pre-conference lunch – Social Liberal Forum

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Mary Reid

On a Virtual Ward

By Mary Reid | Thu 29th February 2024 - 10:53 am

Last week my husband, Ian, was bluelighted into Kingston Hospital. He was very unwell, and eventually – not immediately – they diagnosed Covid. He is clinically vulnerable because of a number of medical conditions, and we shielded carefully through full and partial lockdowns. Neither of us has had Covid up until now. Given the way it attacked him this time we could see why shielding had been essential for him before vaccines became available.

The A&E staff at the hospital were brilliant and he was kept for 48 hours in the Resus unit, but what I want to tell you about is what happened next. Ian was sent home on Saturday, with an oxygen supply and lots of pills, to a Virtual Ward. He was given a kit consisting of an internet Home Hub, a tablet, a wearable monitoring device that sits on his arm, a blood pressure device (to be used 4 times a day), a bespoke charger and an oximeter.

We were left on our own to set it up – even though I am tech savvy I did find that a bit daunting at the end of a tiring and stressful day. However the instructions were crystal clear and it all worked perfectly. His kit was made by Current Health but there are other brands in use.

Ian’s health data is being followed for 24 hours a day at the Monitoring Hub, which covers several hospitals. We have a phone number that we can call at any time for advice or help. They also call us when, for example, his monitoring device fell off and they weren’t getting readings. They asked me to have my mobile by the bed so they can wake me if any readings are a cause for concern during the night.

The Virtual Ward team at Kingston Hospital is on duty between 8am and 6pm each day. Every day they have a case conference on each of the patients in the Virtual Ward. Someone from the team – usually a nurse, but sometimes a doctor – phones each day to discuss Ian’s progress. Usually we switch to a video call on the tablet for that.

The pharmacist phoned one day to explain a change in medication, and the new prescription was delivered to the door by the team physiotherapist. She is the only medical practitioner we have met in person throughout the whole process and she seemed pleased to meet one of her patients face-to-face.

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Victor Chamberlain

If Liberal Democrats are serious about Housing, we will fix ‘Right to Buy’

By Victor Chamberlain | Wed 28th February 2024 - 12:55 pm

Right to Buy is back in the news after it emerged Labour Deputy Leader Angela Rayner made a £48,500 profit on her ex-council house using the scheme. Whatever you think about this, I do agree with Angela that housing aspiration isn’t the issue – it’s failing to replace homes that are sold off. Liberal Democrats need to lead the charge to reform Right to Buy.

Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government introduced the Right to Buy scheme in the United Kingdom, allowing council tenants to purchase their homes at discounted prices. At the time, it was hailed as revolutionary, promising social mobility and homeownership for the masses.

As the years have passed, it has become increasingly evident that Right to Buy has failed to live up to its lofty aspirations, exacerbating rather than alleviating the housing crisis in the UK.

By allowing tenants to buy their council homes at discounted rates, the government inadvertently depleted the stock of affordable housing available for those in need. This has created a vicious cycle where the demand for social housing far exceeds the supply, leading to skyrocketing rents and homelessness. The cost of building new homes is simply not covered by the receipts from Right to Buy.

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Caron Lindsay

Important Federal and Scottish Conference deadlines coming up

By Caron Lindsay | Wed 28th February 2024 - 10:45 am

It’s just 16 days till Liberal Democrats gather in York for Spring Conference. Next Monday,  4th March, at 1pm, is a very important day as it is the deadline for submitting all sorts of things – questions to committees, amendments to motions and emergency and topical motions.

So what are all these things?

Questions to Committees – and the Leader

Each Federal Committee has an accountability session where it presents its report on what it’s been up to since the last Conference. This is an important chance for members to accept what it has been doing or not. It is rare that a report is rejected or amended, but it can be done. For example, back in 2021, the first attempt to streamline the Federal Board by sidelining half its members was overturned thanks to a clever member of the Awkward Squad.

If you want to know what the party’s committees are doing, you can submit a question by the deadline. So if you want to question the Board about how it’s implementing the strategy adopted by Conference, if you want to ask Federal People Development Committee about training, diversity or membership, or Federal Conference Committee about Conference or Federal Policy Committee about their work, get your question in.

There are usually more questions submitted than there is time to take. If it one of those chosen to be asked on the day, you will get the chance to ask a supplementary question in the hall. If it’s not asked in the hall, it will still be answered at a later date in writing in the report from Conference.

You can also question organisations like the Campaign for Gender Balance on their important work.

You can also put in a question to Ed for his leader’s q and a session on Saturday. Don’t, however, do what I did and forget that you have done it and head off for a nap so that you miss it being asked and getting the chance to ask a supplementary. I was kicking myself for that one.

Amendments

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Robin Stafford

Artificial intelligence – golden opportunity or massive threat?

By Robin Stafford | Wed 28th February 2024 - 8:55 am

You can hardly read the news, listen to the radio or scan your preferred social media without hearing about AI.  Or experiencing it in practice, whether you are aware of it or not.  

On the one hand, it is seen as offering huge potential to transform business and other organisations, reducing costs and creating entirely new capabilities.  

On the downside we hear of threats to democracy with a surge in fake videos and information; the potential for mass job losses as AI systems replace employees to reduce costs; at the extreme, dire tales of AI systems taking over humanity altogether.  

One important concern is the concentration of AI development in too few powerful hands and the struggle of governments and international bodies to regulate them.  

To discuss these issues, Green Book Pod is back with another episode in our series of discussions on key issues for the Liberal Democrats, now available on Lib Dem Podcast and on YouTube.

In this podcast we try to provide a balanced view and to give a sense of what you need to know, and perhaps what you do and do not need to be concerned about.  That includes what to be looking for both from governments and business, and how to balance the need for regulation with desirable innovation.

Podcast Guests

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Mike Giles

We should allow Ukrainian refugees to stay

By Mike Giles | Mon 26th February 2024 - 12:23 pm

It has now sadly been over two years since the latest phase of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

I was living in Kyiv back in early 2014 when the conflict began after Russia invaded Crimea and East Ukraine. Since then, the UK has rightly been one of Ukraine’s strongest allies, providing economic, military, political and diplomatic support. This has also very much been a cross-party endeavour, which I strongly welcome.

There is though more that the UK and our allies – particularly the USA – need to do to now ensure that Kyiv has the military means to defeat Moscow.

Refugees

Likewise, there is more …

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