Category Archives: Polls

To celebrate the beginning of Gordon’s second (and last?) year as Prime Minister, what could be more cheering than to have a look at the parties’ polling averages over the last 12 months? Well, if you’re a Labour supporter, smearing yourself in slurry would probably be more comforting, but never mind:

June 2007 (Tony Blair’s last month in charge)
Tories: 36%, Labour: 36%, Lib Dems: 17%
Tory lead 0%

July 2007 (Gordon Brown’s first full month as PM)
Tories: 34%, Labour: 39%, Lib Dems: 16%
Tory lead -5%

August 2007 (Floods, terrorists and foot-and-mouth)
Tories: 34%, Labour: 39%, Lib Dems: 16%
Tory …

We tend not to be too poll-obsessed here at LDV – of course we look at them, as do all other politico-geeks, but viewed in isolation no one poll will tell you very much beyond what you want to read into it. Looked at over a reasonable time-span and, if there are enough polls, you can see some trends.

Here, in chronological order, are the results of the eight polls published in June:

Tories 42%, Labour 26%, Lib Dems 21% – ICM/Sunday Telegraph (8th June)
Tories 45%, Labour 25%, Lib Dems 20% – Populus/Times (10th June)
Tories 45%, Labour 28%, Lib Dems 16% …

We tend not to be too poll-obsessed here at LDV – of course we look at them, as do all other politico-geeks, but viewed in isolation no one poll will tell you very much beyond what you want to read into it. Looked at over a reasonable time-span and, if there are enough polls, you can see some trends.

Here, in chronological order, are the results of the most recent six polls since our last round-up on 30th April:

Tories 40%, Labour 29%, Lib Dems 19% – Populus/Times (7th May)
Tories 49%, Labour 23%, Lib Dems 17% – YouGov/The Sun (9th May)
Tories …

We tend not to be too poll-obsessed here at LDV – of course we look at them, as do all other politico-geeks, but viewed in isolation no one poll will tell you very much beyond what you want to read into it. Looked at over a reasonable time-span and, if there are enough polls, you can see some trends.

Here, in chronological order, are the results of the most recent nine polls since our last round-up on 28th March:

Tories 43%, Labour 32%, Lib Dems 18% – ICM/Telegraph (6th April)
Tories 39%, Labour 33%, Lib Dems 17% – Populus/Times (8th April)
Tories …

We tend not to be too poll-obsessed here at LDV – of course we look at them, as do all other politico-geeks, but viewed in isolation no one poll will tell you very much beyond what you want to read into it. Looked at over a reasonable time-span and, if there are enough polls, you can see some trends.

Here, in chronological order, are the results of the most recent six polls since our last round-up on 29th February:

Tories 40%, Labour 33%, Lib Dems 16% – YouGov/Telegraph (1st Mar)
Tories 37%, Labour 34%, Lib Dems 19% – Populus/Times (11th Mar) …

We tend not to be too poll-obsessed here at LDV – of course we look at them, as do all other politico-geeks, but viewed in isolation no one poll will tell you very much beyond what you want to read into it. Looked at over a reasonable time-span and, if there are enough polls, you can see some trends.

Here, in chronological order, are the results of the most recent 10 polls since our last round-up on 25th January:

Tories 41%, Labour 30%, Lib Dems 17% – ComRes/Independent (24th Feb)
Tories 40%, Labour 34%, Lib Dems 16% – YouGov/Economist (21st …

We tend not to be too poll-obsessed here at LDV – of course we look at them, as do all other politico-geeks, but viewed in isolation no one poll will tell you very much beyond what you want to read into it. Looked at over a reasonable time-span and, if there are enough polls, you can see some trends.

Here, in chronological order, are the results of the six polls conducted in December (hat-tip: Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report Blog, which provides by far the best analysis of the polls on the web):

Tories 39%, Labour 34%, Lib Dems 18% – ICM/Guardian (19th Dec)
Tories 43%, Labour 31%, Lib Dems 16% – YouGov/Telegraph (19th Dec)
Tories 41%, Labour 30%, Lib Dems 16% – ComRes/Independent (16th Dec)
Tories 45%, Labour 32%, Lib Dems 14% – YouGov/Sunday Times (14th Dec)
Tories 40%, Labour 32%, Lib Dems 16% – Populus/Times (9th Dec)
Tories 42%, Labour 35%, Lib Dems 14% – Ipsos-MORI (7th Dec)

Which gives us an average rating for the parties in December as follows (compared with November’s average):
Tories 42% (+2%), Labour 32% (-1%), Lib Dems 16% (n/c)

Back in November, our poll round-up showed Labour plunging 5% following the debacle of the-election-that-never-was. It’s arguable Gordon Brown might be relieved that the bad press of the last month hasn’t resulted in an even sharper downturn than December’s 1% fall. What will concern Labour more is if the polls do not show any significant upturn in the coming few months, as May’s local elections approach. At the moment they seem locked in the 30-35% box where they were contained in the latter months of Tony Blair’s premiership. Six months after the Brown succession, and Labour’s back where they were.

The Tories have had a pretty good December. I commented last month – when the party was unchanged from October’s average of 40% – that “the drop in Labour’s support seems either to have transferred to the Lib Dems or Others, rather than to the official opposition. Again, we’ll have to wait to see if David Cameron is able to capitalise sustainably on Labour’s misfortunes.” The jury’s still out on whether Mr Cameron is building solid, election-winning foundations; but it would be churlish not to acknowledge that his party is gaining some momentum – albeit perhaps by default – in inverse proportion to the rate at which Labour is losing credibility.

The Lib Dems have stabilized since the nadir of October, when our poll average languished at 13%. In truth, we might have hoped to have done slightly better owing both to the fillip of Vince Cable’s impressive turn as acting leader, and the publicity surrounding the party leadership contest. Still, 16% is some kind of base for Nick Clegg to build upon, and does give the lie to those political commentators who still think that two-party politics is due some kind of pendulum-inevitable return. It isn’t. Two-party politics is dead.

Finally, as a Christmas treat, here are the previous December poll averages for the parties over the past decade: