Tom Arms’ World Review

Ukraine

Remember Ukraine? A reminder: It is the East European country sandwiched between Russia and Poland which Russia invaded in February 2022.

You would be forgiven for letting it slip from your political consciousness. Six months ago it and its president Volodomyr Zelensky were being hailed as the “democratic shield” protecting the West from land-hungry autocratic Russia.

Now it has been pushed out of the headlines the corridors of concern by the war in Gaza and whichever crisis comes next.

The problem is that Ukraine cannot afford to slip off the front pages. It needs a successful PR campaign to stay in the war and keep the shield intact. Its armaments industry and its population are limited.

Russia’s manpower pool is four times the size of Ukraine’s. Its historic label is “steamroller.” Its armaments industry is ten times larger and was preparing years before the war started. It is also receiving weapons from Iran, North Korea and possibly China.

It is weapons that are particularly important at the moment, especially artillery shells which are used by both sides to hold the enemy at bay. Russia is estimated to have fired 22,000 rounds a day during the summer to stymie the Ukrainian counter-offensive. The Ukrainians fired 5,000 rounds.

European members of NATO promised Ukraine 1 million rounds of artillery shells by the end of 2023. It will fall well short of that target, although several European countries–  including Germany, the Netherlands, Britain, Norway, Sweden, Belgium, Finland and the Baltic states—have started to increase their armaments production. However, a lot of the increased production will go towards replacing depleted national stocks.

America, is, of course, the historic “arsenal of democracy.” But President Biden’s promised support is being held up by Republican congressmen who either want to divert money to Israel or feel that Ukraine is solely a European problem.

If the defense of Ukraine is left entirely to Europe then the hard-pressed European economies will have to increase armaments production even more. At the current rate, the million promised rounds is only enough to keep the Ukrainian guns firing for another six months.

UK and Rwanda

Britain’s Rwanda asylum issue is morphing into a constitutional crisis. At stake is the independence of the British judiciary, a long-established cornerstone of the country’s democratic foundations.

The UK Supreme Court recently threw out government plans to fly asylum seekers to the central African country of Rwanda. The basis of their decision was that the proposal was in breach of the European Convention on Human Rights, the UN Convention on Human Rights, the UN Convention on Refugees and three British acts of parliament relating to asylum seekers and refugees. Rwanda was not safe, ruled the court, because its government was likely to return asylum seekers to the country from which they had fled. This is known as refoulement.

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Observations of an Expat: Colonial Problem

A colonial era Latin American border dispute is threatening to blow up into a major conflict involving the United States, Brazil, Venezuela, the tiny country of Guyana and possibly Britain as the former colonial power.

The catalyst is the discovery of large oil and gas deposits off the coast of the Essequibo region which is claimed by both Venezuela and Guyana. It has been occupied by Guyana since 1840.

On December 3, President Nicolas Maduro held a referendum in Venezuela in which 95 percent of those balloted voted in favour of annexing the 100,000 square mile Essequibo region which is two-thirds of Guyanese territory. It should be noted that international observers labelled the referendum “grossly unfair” and with a “low turnout”. Furthermore, no one in the Essequibo region voted.

International criticism, however, has not stopped Maduro from ordering foreign companies out of the jungles of Essequibo and the exclusive economic zone off the coast.

Venezuela has also mobilised its army of 100,000 in preparation for a possible invasion. Guyana has put its 7,000 troops on alert. And Brazil has sent troops to its border with Venezuela because the Venezuelan army would have to pass through Brazil to attack Guyana.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has said America will protect Guyana’s sovereignty and additional US warships have been dispatched to the Caribbean for manoeuvres with Guyana’s five-boat navy.

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ALDC By-Election Report, 7th December

The Lib Dems continued our fantastic end to the year with 3 more principal council by-election wins this week. A total of 5 principal by-elections were contested.

All 3 wins came in the East of England. We start on Hertfordshire County Council and a stunning result in Harpenden Rural ward which newly elected Lib Dem councillor Allison Wren gained from the Conservatives with a 33% increase in share of the vote (and over 58% of the vote overall). This gain puts the Lib Dems on 24 net gains in council by-elections this year. Triple that of the Green Party in second place!

Congratulations to Cllr Wren and Hertfordshire Lib Dems on a brilliant win.

Hertfordshire CC, Harpenden Rural
Liberal Democrats (Allison Wren): 1474 (58.3%, +33%)
Conservative: 766 (30.3%, -26.8%)
Labour: 168 (6.6%, -4.1%)
Green Party: 119 (4.7%, -2.2%)

On St Albans DC we also held Sandridge and Wheathampstead ward with over 55% of the vote and 7% vote-share increase on last time. Congratulations to Cllr Simon Johns and the team in St Albans on a great win.

St Albans DC, Sandridge and Wheathampstead
Liberal Democrats (Simon Johns): 793 (55.9%,+7.1%)
Conservative: 480 (33.8%, -4.8%)
Green Party: 78 (5.5%, -1.2%)
Labour: 68 (4.8%, -1.2%)

Our other win of the night came on North Norfolk DC in Briston ward. Congratulations to Cllr Andrew Fletcher and the local team who held the ward for the Lib Dems with just shy of 50% of the total vote.

North Norfolk DC, Briston
Liberal Democrats (Andrew Fletcher): 342 (49%, -2.5%)
Conservative: 274 (39%, -1.5%)
Green Party: 64 (9%, new)
Labour: 15 (2%, -5.9%)

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Part 2: Lib Dem Peers call for improved mental health services for young people

Yesterday we reported on the debate in the House of Lords on mental health services for children and young people secured by Earl Russell.

We thought you might like to read the other Lib Dem contributions to the debate. First up, Richard Allan who talked, among other things, about the effect of bullying on mental health:

My Lords, I am grateful to my noble friend Lord Russell for securing this debate. Like many others, I am impressed by how quickly he has brought value to the work of this House and by the combination of passion and reasoned argument that he brought to today’s debate.

I congratulate the noble and learned Baroness, Lady Hale, on her maiden speech. I had not realised that she is from Yorkshire but, based on the comments of the noble Baroness, Lady Hollins, I can say, as a Sheffielder, that we are now on a Yorkshire hat trick as a group of three speakers. In my household, it is not often that we talk about the law as a cool and attractive profession, but the activities of the noble and learned Baroness in her previous role triggered such comments. Based on her contribution today, I am sure that, in future, she will provide examples of how our words here can be both impactful and entertaining. I hope that she does not let her natural diffidence get the better of her too often.

Turning to the subject of the debate, I start with a question: what do we call a family with experience of child mental health issues? The answer is “a normal family”. That has been reflected in the debate, as well as in my noble friend’s contribution as he related his own experience, but I suspect that every person sitting here today has their own direct personal experience of a young person suffering from mental health issues during their childhood, whether through their children, their nieces and nephews, their grandchildren or those children’s cousins. This understanding is necessary not to trivialise the matter—quite the opposite. If we normalise it, we may get to a position where we understand that child mental health issues need to be treated as seriously as other child health conditions, with an infrastructure and an understanding that, as my noble friend said, it is unacceptable to ignore them or somehow treat them as less serious.

The tools that we need to help people are common to all kinds of healthcare. First, we need early and accurate identification of problems. Secondly, we need good availability of the right treatment options; that is the case whether it is a physical issue or a mental health one. There are also four settings that need to work for young people in order to achieve these goals of the identification and treatment of the issues with which they present. The first is families themselves; the noble Baroness, Lady Hollins, referred to the importance of family as the primary setting. The second is the educational institutions in which children find themselves; the third is primary healthcare; and then there are the acute services to which children may need to turn. I will not go into the issues around family support in any depth today other than to flag the fact that families and the care they provide must be recognised and supported. There is an important objective for government in supporting families who provide care for somebody, whether they have a physical condition or a mental health one; that care provides enormous value to the individual but also to society. There are questions around the extent to which, today, government provides the support that those families need.

I turn to educational settings. These are generally schools for younger children but we should not forget the significant role of universities and colleges. That is important because we are talking today about children and young people; to me, that extends through into those university years. It is another period of transition. For many of the young people who reach the age of 18 or 19 and transition to university, that is when the crisis hits. Again, universities have a critical role to play in this.

Major shifts are needed to improve staff training. Staff across all these different kinds of establishment need to be trained in such a way that they can help identify problems, because problems may first present themselves in an interaction between a young person and a professional in an institution. We also need to make sure that counsellors are available when they represent an appropriate form of treatment; they are frequently the first line. The Minister has made commitments around both those aspects previously—the training of all staff in educational establishments where that may be useful in identifying problems; and the provision of counselling services to the right degree so that, when issues have presented themselves, that first line of treatment is available—so I hope that he will be able to demonstrate progress.

I am interested to understand from the Minister how budgets will operate in this space given that it sits between different government departments. The young person does not care that one thing sits with DHSC and another sits with DfE, or whatever acronyms we are using now; they care about whether treatment is available. I hope that the Minister can indicate how we will ensure that budgets follow need rather than being stuck in departmental silos.

I want to touch on bullying, which can be both a cause and an exacerbating factor for somebody with mental health issues: it can trigger the mental health issue but, sadly, the start of bullying can also sometimes be the response of young people to someone in their school who has a mental health issue. It then compounds the crisis that a young person is suffering. The challenge is to have an effective response because these issues are often labour intensive, requiring engagement—often over a long period—with the children and families involved.

As noble Lords may be aware, I have professional experience of the online component of this as I spent many years working at a large online platform. It seems obvious that the nature of bullying has changed with ubiquitous connectivity. However, sometimes, there is also the risk of us seeing the solutions as entirely within the domain of technology. People report bullying to a platform, which can result in the removal of the content and sometimes the closure of the bullying account, but it rarely solves the underlying problem.

In some cases, the bullying is entirely within an online community, but much more typically the online activity is an extension of something that is happening offline in the real world. The intervention that resolves the problem is one that brings young people, parents and others together to discuss the offline and online activity. I understand the challenges for school staff in resourcing this, but some option will have to be found or we will simply be playing whack-a-mole on the online platforms, knocking down individual instances while the young person’s mental health continues to deteriorate because the bullying is moving from place to place and never being addressed at its root causes.

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Focus on migration Part 1 – Visa Rule Changes

It is a sure sign of an incumbent government in desperate straits that they turn towards anti-migration policies come election time – and so we see the deeply damaging tactic once again from the Conservatives with their recently announced migration policies. I have faith that the British public will not fall for it. In this article I will focus on the changes to the visa rules recently announced by Cleverley. In future articles I hope to discuss developments with the asylum and Rwanda policy.

The increased family visa income requirement

In April 2023, the median full-time UK income was £34,963 (ONS). The new income threshold for family visa is £38,700. This means that more than half of hard-working UK individuals would not be able to bring their loved ones to live together in the UK. I suppose the government is saying one of two things with this announcement. Either one should be punished for failing to display the proper affection for Britannia, having fallen in love with a foreigner or if you are not an upper management or finance type working in London, then you don’t deserve to live together with your loved ones.  Or thirdly, you should emigrate from the UK to live with your family, which ironically will further increase the net migration figure. This is an intolerable attack on the private lives of all but the highest-earners. 

The increased work visa income requirement

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Ed Davey’s message for Hanukkah

Here is Ed Davey’s message for Hanukkah, wishing Jewish people a happy and peaceful time and referring to the exceptionally tough last couple of months. The Liberal Democrats, he said, are your friends.

On the party website, he wrote:

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An early election?

The latest evidence of dissension within the Parliamentary Tories has led to widespread speculation that there will be an early election. Some are even suggesting it will take place in March or April next year.

Here is Ed Davey calling for an election on BBC Breakfast today:

Now, like all activists, Ed will hate a winter election when door-stepping becomes a cold and dispiriting task, made worse by the reluctance of residents to answer their doors after dark. But it does make us wonder whether the Conservatives might capitulate and go for a really early election as a deliberate tactic. After all they know they are going to lose, so maybe they would want to make the campaign as difficult as possible for their opponents.

I suggest you dig out your warmest gloves …

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Earl Russell highlights lack of mental health support for children and young people

Improving mental health has been a priority for the Liberal Democrats long before it was fashionable.

Our elected representatives at every level raise it whenever they can. Norman Lamb as health minister did so much to improve access to services but it’s been a long 8 years since he was in office.

Recently, our Earl Russell secured a debate in the House of Lords to highlight how appalling provision is for children and young people. Waiting times are horrendous. Imagine the impact on your education if you have to wait a year to even be seen. It’s then a long recovery and before you know it, that’s half your secondary education gone. And imagine the suffering if, like too many, CAMHS won’t even accept your referral.

For parents and carers, watching their young person struggle is one of the worst things to endure. And the anxiety of wondering if they will still be there in the morning, every day, takes its toll.

The debate is covered here on Today in Parliament, from about 20:10 in, and below are Earl Russell’s speeches. We’ll cover the contributions by Richard Allan, Claire Tyler and Mike Storey tomorrow.

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Congratulations to Mick and Joye!

Last weekend I went to Cambridge for a very special event – the wedding of two Lib Dem legends, Mick Taylor and Joye Rosenstiel. Mick is a former Calderdale Councillor and has been a parliamentary candidate in Calder Valley and in other seats in the North West. He’s a great friend of the site and a regular contributor in our comments. Joye was a Councillor in Cambridge for 26 years and Mayor from 1994-95. She has also been Church Warden of Great St Mary’s Church in central Cambridge.

The wedding was a wonderfully relaxed and happy event. There were two ceremonies. They were legally married in a Quaker ceremony. I’d never been to a Quaker wedding before, and I loved the way it combined due solemnity and tradition with equality and the ability of everyone to contribute. In a Quaker wedding, there is no person up the front marrying the couple. They marry each other and everyone present signs the wedding certificate – even children are allowed to if they were awake during the proceedings.  This tradition comes from the 16th century – the long list of witnesses were presented as evidence to the authorities to ensure that the marriage was legally recognised.

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Mark Pack hits back at activists who called for bolder, distinctive offer to voters

Last week we brought you news that 30 senior Liberal Democrats had written to the Guardian to say that the party should have a bolder, more distinctive offer to voters.

It’s only fair that we bring you the party president’s letter to the Guardian, defending the party against these claims. Mark Pack said:

Far from being too cautious, the Liberal Democrats under Ed Davey have shown incredible boldness (Lib Dems are being too cautious, say senior party members, 29 November). We are the only party committed to 0.7% on international aid, to proportional representation and to combating climate change. Above all, we are the only party to have a real plan to transform our broken relationship with Europe.

With Ed Davey as leader, our plan to get this Conservative government out of power is working, the team is united and we are winning again. Since 2020, we have taken the fight to the Conservatives – in record-breaking byelections in former safe seats from Buckinghamshire to Shropshire. We have added swathes of councillors across the country. The Liberal Democrats are the only party that wants to radically change the system from vested powers to fairer votes. We can only achieve this change through winning elections, with more MPs, more councillors, more assembly members in Wales and more MSPs in Scotland.

However, two other letters from Liberal Democrats on the same day had a different view:

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Back to Beveridge at Ballot Time

As the countdown to the General Election begins, people grow increasingly nervous. The spectres of triumph and disaster lurk hidden from view as we approach the electoral starting gate.

Some with long memories fear the false step – the promise to reverse Brexit without referendum, the trumpeted amnesty to illegal immigrants etc.

Some with equally long memories bemoan a lack of boldness and differentiation – where is the penny on income tax for education ?

Much my depend on your local political geography. In the leafier parts of the South saying ‘we are not the Tories’ may be sufficient.  In the Labour dominated north it’s certainly not.

This underlines the need to have a message that impacts in the North and does not startle the horses or the electors in the South.

There are such messages particularly in the field of health and education.

I think it is now accepted that the Coalition Health and Social Care Act 2012 was one of the most pointless, opportunity-squandering and ham-fisted pieces of legislation in modern times with most of its provisions (CCGs etc) now abandoned or reversed.

Parliamentarians persisted with it despite the concerns of nearly all health professionals, the Lib Dem conference, Baroness Williams and colleagues like Andrew George and other brave souls.

It was not a charter for privatisation but a definitive and conclusive expression of the market principle when applied to health which although rampant in the Blair years had to be toned down even then to get through the Commons. It proved unworkable in our NHS which still tries to cling to Beveridge principles.

What if though we were to revisit those principles and abandon the costly, bureaucratic internal market in the NHS – where the piled on overheads of administrators, defending as commissioners and providers their own silos, disappear ?  Arguably the necessary creation of the new Integrated Care Boards has already blurred the boundaries within the internal market. Commissioners and providers are now working together as the NHS to desperately husband scarce resources.

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How the Lib Dems can be distinctive on the environment

It’s important to remind people that we were Britain’s original Green Party. We were into environmentalism in the 1920s when the Liberal Party’s Yellow Book proposed setting up national parks. The party’s manifesto at the February 1974 general election was one of the greenest ever, and the Liberals had policies in the 1979 manifesto decrying the measurement of economic growth in terms of GDP.

It’s also important to remember that being the first doesn’t mean we remain the authority on political representation of environmentalism. Far from it. In a YouGov opinion poll five months ago that asked “Which political party do you think would be best to handle the environment and climate change?”, the Lib Dems came fourth. The Greens were top with 25%, Labour second with 15%, the Conservatives third on 12%, and we polled just 4% (others 2%, don’t know 26%, none 17%). Yet the party’s commitment to the environment is integral to Liberalism – Liberals regard the environment as part of the common good, so we condemn any entity that harmfully exploits the natural environment.

The problem, therefore, is the messaging: how do we Lib Dems get voters to see that we are a fundamentally green party? This formed the basis of the discussion on the second Green Book podcast, published by the people behind The Green Book that appeared in 2013. Hosted by the next MP for Eastbourne – sorry, got ahead of myself there – by the Lib Dem PPC for Eastbourne Josh Babarinde, it featured discussion among the veteran environmental activist Tom Burke (now of the E3G think tank), James Murray, the founding editor of Business Green, and Chris Willmore, a former sustainability professor who’s now the Lib Dem cabinet member for planning and regeneration at South Gloucestershire council.

You can watch the episode here:

The discussion is well worth a listen, because there were different approaches to the central issue of how to make the Lib Dems distinctive on green issues. It covered several aspects of the environmental debate, including the risk of voter backlash, and that old chestnut of how you find the balance between, on the one hand, letting the state set the price signals and then leaving it to individuals and businesses to be the change, and, on the other, allowing the state a bigger role in order to green our way of life via a ‘just transition’.

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Aotearoa New Zealand pivots….backwards?

The Aotearoa New Zealand Parliament in Wellington

Visiting close family, I have recently been privileged to visit Aotearoa New Zealand.

Several things I saw impressed on me, once again, as to how forward-looking the country has been and is.

We visited the Auckland Women’s Suffrage Memorial which commemorates the successful 1893 petition which made Aotearoa New Zealand the first self-governing country in the world to enshrine in law the right for women to vote in parliamentary elections. Similarly, in Wellington there were several prominent streets and memorials named after Kate Sheppard, the leading suffragist.

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We need to champion radical and avant-garde policies

The Lib Dems are bumbling along at the lower end of the polls at about 12% of the vote. Reform UK and the Greens are lapping at their heels, and if the Libs Dems are not careful, they will be eclipsed by one or both of them. Both Tories and Labour are in disarray, but in spite of this, the Lib Dems are making no headway. All they are doing is just scooping up the protest vote. Why is this? It is because they have no imaginative policies.

I have studied the policy paper, For a Fair Deal. It is fine as far as it goes, but a bit limp. It is full of targets, without any explanation on how they are to be achieved. In its core is a contradiction. As large an elephant in the room as anyone might find. On page ten we state that, with the exception of emergencies, we will balance the budget, but on twenty-one other occasions we commit ourselves to investments, without showing how they will be funded. It would be fine if we are applying Keynesian economics, the jewel in the crown of the Liberal armoury, but we do not.

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The Poverty Pandemic, fossil fuels and consumer advertising

The UK’s Poverty Pandemic (aka ‘Cost of Living Crisis’) was already coursing through the lifeblood of society long before COVID-19. Over the past decade, the Poverty Pandemic has been more damaging than COVID-19 and far less easily treated. Indeed, many who promoted this Poverty Pandemic’s root causes may dismiss the inequities as collateral damage in the cause of the Conservative’s economic treadmill — a heartless Darwinian devotion to the survival of top dogs.

To excuse this Poverty Pandemic as ‘a crisis’ as if it might one day pass away is ‘deflective marketing’ where ‘problems’ are progressively reframed as ‘challenges’, and ‘challenges’ become ‘opportunities’, and imagined opportunities become the elusive ‘sunlit uplands’ in the search for infinite compound growth or some such supposedly faster-spinning hamster wheel, further fuelled by Brexit. Foodbanks, Pantries, and ‘charity shops’ were well established before that Brexit twist of the economic knife and before Covid-19 preyed upon endemic poverties that lacked insulation against escalating energy prices.

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Economic dishonesty, political irrationality

Ahead of the Autumn Statement the Financial Times quoted former Chancellor Philip Hammond as saying: ‘the politician who is honest about the situation probably gets voted out.’ Jeremy Hunt was less dishonest than the irrational right-wingers on the benches behind him who called for substantial tax cuts, but he gestured towards them in the ‘cuts’ he offered, his reiteration that ‘Britain is a low tax country’ and his claim that cuts in taxes (and therefore in public investment and services) is the surest path to economic recovery.

There’s a remarkably wide gap between our partisan debate and what expert economists and think tanks (apart from the Tufton Street standard-bearers of economic liberalism) are saying about the UK’s economic and political priorities. The Institute for Government Public Service ‘Tracker’ for 2023, just published, states bleakly that we risk spiralling down a ‘doom loop’ of cuts, unable to reverse ‘the consequences of successive governments’ short-term policy making, with decades of under-investment in capital having a serious impact on the productivity of public services… and many services are experiencing a full-blown workforce crisis.’ The Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Resolution Foundation have pointed out that Hunt’s future ‘headroom’ on which he rests his case for some tax cuts now implies future cuts in public services that no government would be likely to approve. On the business pages CEOs insist that an increase in public investment is needed before businesses will increase their domestic investment rate: the private sector needs better public infrastructure to invest, particularly in our poorer regions.

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COVID inquiry: Strip Johnson of allowance and bar him from future honours

The Lib Dems have called on Rishi Sunak to strip Boris Johnson of his £115,000 a year ex-Prime Ministerial allowance and for the disgraced former PM to be barred from receiving future honours or a peerage.

It comes ahead of Johnson’s scheduled appearance at the Covid inquiry next week.

The inquiry has already heard evidence that the response to the pandemic under Johnson’s government was chaotic and filled with a callous disregard for the lives of the elderly. Boris Johnson’s former Chief of Staff, Lord Lister, told the inquiry that the ex-PM said “let the bodies pile high” when presented with the prospect of a circuit breaker lockdown in September 2020.

The Liberal Democrats are putting pressure on Rishi Sunak to strip Johnson of his up to £115,000 a year allowance as a former Prime Minister. The party is also calling on Sunak to rule out giving Johnson an honour or peerage in future honours lists. It comes after Sunak gave a peerage to former Prime Minister David Cameron so he could rejoin the cabinet.

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ALDC’s by-election report – 30 November 2023

There were 3 principal Council by-elections this week with Liberal Democrat candidates – and there was so much to celebrate in all three.

There were an additional 2 by-elections on City of London Council but these were only contested by independent candidates.

The only place to start is North Yorkshire Council with a historic Lib Dem gain from the Green Party in Sowerby and Topcliffe ward. Congratulations to Councillor Dan Sladden on an extraordinary victory that is remarkable for a number of reasons.

Not only did we get a brilliant 42% of the vote, we did so from nowhere having not stood in the ward in the previous local election! It is also only the third principal council seat that we have gained in a by-election from the Green Party since 2002. For so many reasons this is a historic result so once again we want to say thank you and well done to Councillor Sladden and North Yorkshire Liberal Democrats.

North Yorkshire Council, Sowerby and Topcliffe

Liberal Democrats (Dan Sladden): 764 (42%, new)
Conservative: 460 (25%, -23%)
Green Party: 306 (17%, -35%)
Labour: 250 (14%, new)
Yorkshire Party: 35 (2%, new)
Official Monster Raving Loony Party: 20 (1%, new)

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New issue of Liberator out

It’s not often Liberator has a “hold the front page” moment but we did to briefly fit in something on the Guardian letter about party strategy and Ed Davey’s reaction to the 30 signatories, including by all accounts dissent at the Federal Policy Committee.

Find out the news in Radical Bulletin and the thoughts of Lord Bonkers, and this is what is in Liberator 420, which you can download for free here.

You can sign up to be emailed when each new Liberator comes out.

FOUR DAYS GOOD.

What is the Government scared of in Lib Dem South Cambridgeshire’s trial of four-day working, wonders council leader Bridget Smith

HYPOCRISY REIGNS IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

Rebecca Tinsley wonders why mass killings in Sudan lack the attention focused on Gaza

A RAPID AND UNCONTROLLED DISASSEMBLY OF GOVERNMENT

Suella Braverman’s campaign against rough sleepers was enough to put J Frasier Hewitt off breakfast, and the rest of the Government looks hopeless to a former Tory too

RUNNING UP THE DOWN ESCALATOR

Mid Bedfordshire showed the Liberal Democrats how not to campaign, but Michael Meadowcroft sees a lesson form Poland in how to effectively take on nationalism and populism

AND SO TO MID BEDS

The failure in Mid Bedfordshire holds three lessons the Liberal Democrats should have the wisdom to learn from, says Roger Hayes

A LONG ROAD HOME

Getting the UK back into the European Union can only be a long-term goal, though one helped by Brexit’s manifest failings, says Nick Harvey

A FEW MORE BRICKS IN THE WALLS

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Why is the Government scared of Lib Dem South Cambridgeshire’s trial of four-day working?

The Government has called on Local Authorities to innovate and that is exactly what we’re doing in South Cambridgeshire, but it appears to be the wrong sort of innovation if you are a Tory. They have gone so far as issuing a Best Value Notice when our corporate peer review has just reported that we have really sound finances and an enviable record of delivering on the Government’s priorities.

In more ‘advanced’ parts of the world such as Scandinavia and Australia the four-day working week is becoming the norm and in the UK over 90% of those private sector businesses in a recent large scale study found it hugely beneficial and have chosen to stick with it. The five-day week is over 100 years old and was undoubtedly fit for purpose in a world without internet, AI and remote working. The pandemic accelerated the move into this new world of work and most organisations have retained those practices because they worked for people and for business.

Despite Jacob Rees Mogg wanting all civil servants tied to their desks five days a week, eight hours a day that is certainly not what is actually happening in government and it is not happening elsewhere. So why did we put ourselves in the firing line in South Cambridgeshire and why have we chosen, thus far, to stay there?

There is a national crisis in recruitment and retention which is most acute in the public sector and especially acute in places like ours where it is extremely expensive to live and there is a very competitive market for the sort of talented people we need. Greater Cambridge (Cambridge City and South Cambridgeshire) is the hottest growth area in the UK and it is nigh on impossible to compete on salaries and perks with the wealthy private sector for planners, IT experts and others.

We had tried everything we could for years to become an employer of choice but we had to look at something else, not only to attract people but to hold onto them. We routinely failed to fill 80% of vacancies and early last year only filled 50%; some very attractive jobs received no applications and we were spending more than £2m a year on agency staff.

We began by running an initial three-months’ trail just to test if performance held up. We had previously spent three months preparing for the trial because evidence from the private sector study indicated the strong link between good preparation and eventual success. We extended the trial to a year when the result were encouraging and have subsequently seen an escalation of benefits as we move towards the end of this longer trail early next spring.

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UBI and PR will work together

“UBI” (Universal Basic income) has staggered and lurched in Lib Dem Land. I  believe most of the arguments against it are the prejudices of ignorance or the handicaps of expertise.   I shall try to explain why and how UBI and PR must and can work in harness.  I shall not here consider the objections to it,  but I do hope others will.

UBI is not too expensive – it should be managed by the Inland Revenue, and subject to Income Tax – simply one more thing to add to each taxpayer’s Income Tax  total bill.   Everyone receiving UBI would pay Income Tax at the rate appropriate to his or her means.  Say 10%, perhaps, for those without any other Income at all?   Enough for everyone to recognise that everyone getting UBI is a payer of Income Tax – and well aware of the fact.

Clearly that would require much re-arranging of Income Tax rules and rates.  But that will happen anyway, since there can be no such change before we have elected the House of Commons by Proportional Representation.   That will be all the sooner thanks to Boris’s laying waste to the Conservatives.

The Labour Party has (timorously?) declined to endorse either idea, despite having commissioned a Paper on UBI from the distinguished academic, Prof Guy Standing.

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Green Book Pod 2: the net zero debate

As the world’s nations gather for COP28, we need no reminding that climate change is the biggest threat to humanity.  It is directly contributing to humanitarian emergencies from heatwaves, wildfires, floods, tropical storms and hurricanes and they are increasing in scale, frequency and intensity.

How should the UK – and politicians vying for office – respond?

Polling by More in Common consistently shows that British voters see “climate change and the environment” as one of the top three issues facing the country.  This is a remarkable increase from just a few years ago.

But the UK is doing nowhere near enough to meet its legally binding “net zero” target – to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 100% from 1990 levels by 2050.

Over recent months, Rishi Sunak has backtracked on key net zero policies as he tries to draw new political dividing lines.

Labour have promised a multi-billion-pound green prosperity plan, but they keep pushing back its timetable and planned scope.

And what about the Liberal Democrats?  In the mid-1990s, we were the first UK political party to publish a comprehensive programme to address climate change.  Sixteen years ago, we were the first to set a net zero target for 2050.  Liberal Democrats in coalition presided over a quadrupling of renewable energy and established the world’s first Green Investment Bank.

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Ed Davey tackles PM on hospital delays

Ed Davey used his question to the Prime Minister today to highlight hold-ups in the building of the mythical 40 new hospitals promised in the Government’s 2019 manifesto. Especially as the National Audit Office thinks it won’t meet that commitment.

Ed said:

Three years ago, the Government made a commitment to 40 new hospitals and significant upgrades to hospitals in most need, but today many schemes are badly delayed. The Royal Berkshire—stuck at the development stage, with not a single pound transferred for construction. Harrogate District Hospital—still waiting on £20 million for urgent upgrades after reinforced autoclaved aerated concrete was

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UPDATED: Senior Liberal Democrats call for “bold and distinctive offer to voters”

Thirty Liberal Democrats, including the chiefs of staff to two of the three most recent leaders, a former policy director, a former MP, two peers, members of federal committees, councillors and current and former candidates have called for the party to be bolder in the run-up to the General Election.

In a letter to the Guardian, they said:

There is a massive opportunity for a liberal alternative based on internationalism, environmental awareness and modernising Britain. But we believe the Liberal Democrats are swerving this opportunity, not seizing it.

It is crucial that we are brave and honest about the challenges a new government will face, with distinctive positions the Tories would never take and Labour dares not adopt.

They argue that rejoining the single market, creating a “dividend” that would revive our public services, should be part of what we offer.

Citing the way Paddy Ashdown set out a clear alternative to both parties, they continue:

We have bolder policies than Labour on the environment, fair votes and human rights, but we are not communicating them. At a general election, echoing Labour’s general antipathy to the Tories through local campaigns is part of the battle but insufficient on its own.

Only a statement of confident liberalism – on Europe, the environment, political reform and public services – will show people that the Lib Dems are a national force worth supporting. We do well when we have a principled message that cuts through, such as our current one on Gaza.

In the accompanying story,  former Policy Director and Federal Policy Committee Vice Chair Duncan Brack is quoted:

We’re not criticising the target seats strategy, but focusing on target seats alone is not enough,” said Duncan Brack, a member of the party’s federal policy committee who was an adviser to Chris Huhne in the coalition government.

“We need to stand for something inspiring. Otherwise, why should people join the Lib Dems, pay money into campaign war chests, go delivering and canvassing? And why should anti-Tory voters vote for us as opposed to another opposition party if it’s not clear what we stand for?”

The Party’s response shows that it is capable of delivering a robust message:

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Welcome to my day: 27 November 2023 – there’s no need to burn down Parliament given what some MPs are doing to it…

I’m visiting Parliament this week, in my capacity as a member of the National Assembly of the National Association of Local Councils, and it looks like I’ll be entering something of a controversy. Not me, I hasten to add, or anything to do with the event, but the building itself. For, whilst the building is in an increasingly dangerous state, leading figures in both Houses of Parliament appear determined to delay any decision that would allow the major works needed to be completed in a timely and cost-efficient manner. Indeed, a promised debate on which of two options was to be adopted has been postponed until next year.

Whilst you can argue about the value of refurbishing a building which suffers from so many shortcomings, or indeed, whether Parliament should remain on that site or even in London, as a metaphor for the shortcomings of the Government and our democracy, the Palace of Westminster takes some beating. An aging structure containing obsolete infrastructure, with an increasing risk of disaster… need I go on?

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The Lib Dems (and Labour) could learn from Russell T Davies

Christine Jardine wrote about the 60th anniversary of Kennedy’s assassination earlier this week. The day after, 23rd November, marked 60 years since the first episode of Doctor Who was broadcast.

For me, ever since the very first episode I watched in 1974, it’s been a  constant source of joy, inspiration, curiosity and adrenaline rushes. There seems to be quite an affinity between Lib Dems and Doctor Who. We identify with a socially awkward eccentric travelling through time and space saving peoples and worlds and universes, a lot of the time from themselves.

Last night marked a new era for the show. Or, more accurately, a reboot of one of the most successful ones. Russell T Davies is back as head writer and has reunited much of the team who brought the show back so brilliantly in 2005. Much as I love the Doctor and all his companions, it simply hasn’t been as good since RTD left in 2009.

David Tennant, the first actor to return for a second stint as the Doctor is reunited with Catherine Tate who played his last regular companion, Donna Noble. The way her character developed over 13 episodes was outstanding, but then the Doctor, against her will, wiped her memory to save her life.

Russell T Davies really knows how to play with your emotions and not just in Doctor Who.  In the drama It’s a Sin, he just breaks you as he contrasts the  horrendous cruelty of discrimination against people with HIV and AIDS with the love and support of friends.

Last night’s Star Beast had plenty tugs on your heartstrings. Joy, apprehension, fear, optimism, love, the fierce, protective love of a mother for her daughter being just a few.  The one thing he is not is subtle. You are in no doubt about what he is saying, and those of us on the progressive side of politics could learn a lot from him.

Right wing politicians have been dividing and ruling us for too long now. They are not known for hiding their rhetoric under a bushel. Look at how Conservative politicians treat vulnerable asylum seekers, set about removing benefits from sick people who can’t work and demonise trans people because they think it is politically expedient to do so. And some of them, like Nigel Farage, do so while portraying themselves as the jokey bloke down the pub that everybody loves.

While we are on the subject of Farage, rumoured to be pocketing £1.5 million for going on I’m a Celebrity, I will never forgive Have I Got News For You for showing that clip of him naked. If you haven’t seen it, you have been warned.

Sadly, those of us who want to see a more liberal and equal society  too often shy from challenging the right wing. We murmur round the edges, too timid to take them on in case we scare people from voting for us and we shrink back when the right shout at us. Even when our policies are much better, and pretty much all the  time they are, we don’t use our creative skills to appeal to the better, more compassionate side of public opinion. It’s there, but it needs to be nurtured.

And every time the right go unchallenged, they pull the political agenda a little bit more over to their side. We all lose when that happens because the country becomes a nastier, unhappier place to live, particularly for those whose lives become a lot worse as a result but the toxicity affects us all.

And so back to last night’s Doctor Who. 5.1 million people saw it, the highest for the first episode of a drama this year.  It was woke as hell, and much the better for it. You see, woke, explained properly, is all about making sure everyone can take part in life. It’s about kindness, generosity and seeing the best in our fellow humans. No wonder the Daily Mail hates it.

I’m wary of too many spoilers, but the joys included a TARDIS that anyone could access and a  scientific adviser being given the perfect tool she needed to do her job.

It was clear from the get go that Donna Noble has a brilliant relationship with her daughter, Rose. We learn that Rose is trans, confirmed by boys from her school yelling transphobic abuse at her. Every parent will recognise the furious love Donna has for Rose in that moment. We all want to protect our children and Davies evoked that beautifully.

Russell T Davies manages to get you in the gut every time. And that’s what we need to get better at.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Diplomatic Miracles do happen.

And if you need proof just look at the exchange of hostages currently taking place between Hamas and the Israeli government.

Enmity, internal divisions and complex diplomatic channels have all been overcome to allow not only a hostages-for-Palestinian-prisoners exchange but also a ceasefire and aid convoy into Gaza.

There were problems. One was the opposition by far-right Israeli cabinet ministers to any agreement on anything with Hamas. The other was the fact that 50 of the roughly 240 hostages were held not by Hamas but the even more extreme Islamic Jihad.

Then there were the complex diplomatic channels. There are no direct links between Hamas and Israel. Instead the Israelis talked to the Americans who talked to the Qataris who talked to Hamas who talked to Islamic Jihad. There was—still is—a danger of mixed or misinterpreted signals in this game of diplomatic Chinese whispers.

But so far so good. The two sides have agreed a four-day ceasefire during which the Palestinians will release 13 Israeli hostages a day. As soon as their release is confirmed, Israel will set free 50 Palestinians held in Israeli prisoners.

At the same time, the aid convoy that has been sitting on the Gaza-Egyptian border will cross into Gaza to deliver much needed water, fuel, food and energy supplies. 300 lorries are expected to cross the border today (Friday). The UN World Food Programme says it is not enough, but it is a start for the 2.2 million aid dependents Gazans.

There is even another potential diplomatic miracle. According to diplomatic sources, the Israelis have offered to extend the ceasefire a day at a time in return for the release of 20 hostages per day.

But hanging over the good news is the real danger that the ceasefire could quickly collapse.  There are many danger points. One is that Islamic Jihad may back out of the hostage deal. Relations between it and Hamas are poor.

The other is Israeli insistence that Palestinians who have fled northern Gaza for southern Gaza do not return home during the ceasefire. They fear that returning Palestinians would include Hamas fighters. But from the Gazans point of view, they want to retrieve their belongings and, in many cases, bury their dead.

Then there is the very real possibility that a frightened, nervous, hate-filled and trigger-happy Israeli soldier or Hamas fighter will loose a deadly rifle volley.

Finally, there is the possibility of a major conflict with Hezbollah on the Israel-Lebanon border. Hezbollah attacks have significantly increased since October 7, but so far the presence of two US aircraft carriers off the coast of Lebanon has been an effective deterrent.

The Argentina peso may soon be no more. 

The country’s newly-elected anarcho-capitalist (his phrase) president Javier Milei wants to ditch it for the US dollar.

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The importance of signing a Faith Covenant

I do love reading about the Census. To some people, it might be a “silly hobby”, however analysing and understanding data is hugely important in relation to mapping out the needs of our communities and facilitating adequate e.g. health, leisure, parking and social care provision.

 It was fascinating to see how much the UK has changed in the last decade. As a practising Christian, I found it really interesting that in 2011 in Welwyn Hatfield, 27% of residents reported no religion, however this number increased to 37% in 2021. Given that the population of Welwyn Hatfield, where I live and serve as a District Cllr, increased by around 10,000 (from 110,000 to 120,000), it is overall a significant change.

 I am aware that Britain, like many other European countries, is becoming more secular. However, I was personally absolutely delighted that the Welwyn Hatfield Borough Council has signed a Faith Covenant at the Full Council meeting on 15th November. Although it is not legally binding, I am also so pleased that the agreement was approved by the Council during the Inter-Faith Week, which took place across the UK last week.

 However, I hope that most people would agree if I said that we can’t underestimate the importance of faith communities and their contribution across the country and in our neighbourhoods. In my view, the Faith Covenant will only strengthen our collaboration with a wide range of groups and organisations in our district, but it will also help to build better understanding with residents as well as increase awareness of different faith groups in Welwyn Hatfield. Apart from providing places of worship, it is the faith communities, which run Food Banks, sport and youth projects and provide a regular platform for a successful integration. 

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Observations of an ex Pat: Geert

White-haired Dutch politician Geert Wilders hates the label far-right. Neither is he particularly fond of being called an extremist or fascist.

Wilders also dislikes Islam, the Koran, the EU, asylum seekers, and most foreigners in general. He is the avowed leader of the “Counter-Jihad Movement.”

He has been in and out of Dutch courts on hate charges; was banned for several years from Britain, Germany and Austria and has a permanent armed police guard to protect him from assassination. Wilders has attacked the Koran as a “fascist book”, Mohammed as “the devil” and Islam is a “retarded culture.”

He does have likes. They include: Vladimir Putin, Margaret Thatcher and Israel. He is less keen on France’s Marine Le Pen and Hungary’s Viktor Orban. On Donald Trump he is ambivalent. He approves of Trump’s anti-Muslim and America first policies, but questions his honesty and claims to have won the 2020 elections.

The leader of the Dutch Freedom Party also wants to turn back the clock to 1830 and reunite the Netherlands with the Flemish-speaking region of Belgium.

Wilders political beliefs are important because he is in line to be the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands. And as one of the founding members of the European Community the Netherlands has an outsized voice in the EU and beyond.

His premiership is not guaranteed. The Netherlands has a proportional representation system and a leader needs an outright majority of the 150-seat parliament to form a coalition. Wilders this week won the most seats—37– but the other main parties have either point-blank refused to serve with

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ALDC’s by-election report -23 November 2023

It has been a relatively quiet week for principal council by-elections – but a very successful one for the Lib Dems. Of the 3 elections held we won 2 of them! With one hold and one gain we are the undisputable winners this week!

The first election was held on Wednesday on Powys County Council in Wales in Talybont-on-Usk ward. Congratulations to Councillor Raith Devlin and the team in Powys on

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