What will happen to oil prices?

This is the first of a regular series of columns from economist Tim Leuning.

January is the time for predictions. Every year economists make them. Sometimes we are right, and sometimes wrong. Some predictions, like inflation, are easy, but others are not. The oil price is not.

For fifty years, 1921-71, the oil price was fairly stable at c. $20 a barrel (in today’s terms). That was surprising: the price yo-yoed in the mid-nineteenth century and was fairly volatile 1880-1921. But neither the booming 20s nor the great depression, a world war, nor a post-war boom seemed to affect oil prices at all. Oil prices were one thing you just did not have to worry about.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 15 Comments
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Clegg slams Bishop for non-Muslim “no-go areas” comments

Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg has criticised the Bishop of Rochester, the Rt Rev Michael Nazir-Ali, for his article in The Sunday Telegraph, Extremism flourished as UK lost Christianity. Most controversially, the Bishop argued that:

there has been a worldwide resurgence of the ideology of Islamic extremism. One of the results of this has been to further alienate the young from the nation in which they were growing up and also to turn already separate communities into “no-go” areas where adherence to this ideology has become a mark of acceptability.

The Guardian reports Nick’s views:

The Liberal Democrat leader, Nick

…

Posted in News | 48 Comments

Would Lib Dems be happy with a Democrat President’s foreign policy?

I think it’s safe to guess that there aren’t many Liberal Democrats who are fans of George W Bush’s foreign policy, whether it is on Iraq, international action on climate change or a host of lower-profile issues. However, would a victory by either Clinton or Obama bring about a US foreign policy that Liberal Democrats would be more comfortable with?

Saturday night’s New Hampshire debate saw both of the leading Democrat candidates espouse foreign policy views likely to be highly controversial. Obama repeated his support (previously criticised by Lib Dem MP Lynne Featherstone) for unilateral military action against parts of …

Posted in LDVUSA | 7 Comments

Top of the Blogs: The Golden Dozen #46

Happy New Year! And welcome to the 46th of our weekly round-ups from the Lib Dem blogosphere, featuring the seven most popular stories according to click-throughs from the Aggregator (30th December, 2007, to 5th January, 2008), together with a hand-picked quintet you might otherwise have missed

In the first week of 2008, these were the best-read posts in descending order:

Posted in Best of the blogs | 3 Comments

Nick Clegg finalises his team of Shadow Ministers

From the party’s news release today:
Liberal Democrat Leader Nick Clegg today completed his reshuffle by announcing the full list of Shadow Ministers.

Commenting Nick Clegg said:

“I am delighted to complete my reshuffle. This is a very strong team and I am looking forward to working with them to take the Liberal Democrat message to the country.”

Posted in News | 7 Comments
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Vote on the Liberal Voice of 2007

Lib Dem Voice’s poll for Liberal Voice of 2007 opens today. We’re asking you to vote on who your favourite public champion for liberal values in Britain was over the last year. What ‘liberal’ means is up to you to decide in the vote.

There’s a twist to the contest, too. While we are all likely to judge the Liberal Democrats and its parliamentarians are the best champions, we decided to make things different. We’ve picked a shortlist of people outside the Lib Dems, mainly with the intention to spark some debate on which non-party or rival party figures are …

Posted in LDV Awards | Tagged | 18 Comments

Help make The Voice even bigger and better in 2009

2008 has been a tremendously successful year for Liberal Democrat Voice, with more readers, more content and more comments than ever. But we want to be even bigger and better in 2009.

You’ll have seen some of our plans already, including the introduction of new regular features such as James Graham’s weekly Lib Dig Pig round-ups (covering the best of the internet beyond the Liberal Democrat blogosphere).

We also want to expand our online advertising and our presence at party events so that we can reach out to that wider pool of people who are interested in the sorts of stories we …

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Gordon Brown: worrying about the environment is short-termist

Well, it’s a novel argument. But perhaps not terribly convincing.

The Observer today trails moves from Gordon Brown to bring in more nuclear power, build in areas that conservationists won’t like and expand Britain’s airports. His argument? That opposing such policies for environmental reasons linked to the planet’s long-term future is, er…, short-termist and opportunistic.

Posted in News | 1 Comment

US election news

1. Romney has won the very low profile Wyoming caucuses.  The Democrat contest is at a later date. The Republican contest was brought forward to between Iowa and New Hampshire in an attempt to get more attention paid to Wyoming. Although Wyoming got a deluge of direct mail from Republican candidates, there were hardly any campaign visits and there’s been very little media coverage, even of the result. But hey – they have managed to get a mention on this blog out of it 🙂

2. Latest New Hampshire polls:

  • Suffolk University has Clinton 36, Obama 29, Edwards 13 / Romney 30,

…

Posted in LDVUSA | 3 Comments

Nick Clegg TV interview on Sunday

10am, Sunday Live, Sky, 6th January.

(This previous post tells you how you can get advanced warning of such media appearances via the web, email or an RSS feed).

Posted in News | 1 Comment

What the public and peers think about the ‘reformed’ House of Lords

Lord Tom McNally, Lib Dem leader in the House of Lords has drawn LDV’s attention to a paper by Dr Meg Russell, a senior research fellow in the Constitution Unit at University College London. Dr Russell has analysed results from the Unit’s public opinion survey on factors influencing the legitimacy of the House of Lords, as well as some figures from their survey of peers.

The briefing which accompanies the paper notes:

The public survey, carried out by Ipsos MORI in late October, asked which factors the public think are important to the legitimacy of the House of Lords. It found:

•

…

Posted in Parliament | 30 Comments

The problem with PMQs

Being a politician I am – not surprisingly – happy to stick up for politics and politicians in general.

I think politics is essential for our country – imagine what a country where government ruled without elections would be like – and I think most (though not quite all!) politicians are in it for decent reasons. I don’t think they’ve got their snouts in the trough (after all, most could easily earn more and work fewer hours outside politics) nor do I think that MPs get ridiculously long holidays (Parliament being “in recess” isn’t the same as being on holiday – conscientious MPs work through recess, researching policy, meeting constituents and so on and on). And I could go on.

Lynne Featherstone at PMQsBut the point at which I draw the line in defending my profession is Prime Minister’s Questions. What an awful testosterone-fuelled bear pit of badly behaved boys (and it is overwhelmingly boys!) that is!

To be more precise – the flaws with PMQs fall under five headings. First, the Prime Minister only very rarely faces any detailed, forensic questioning – because the format makes it far too easy to avoid the question.

Second, too many questions get eaten up by patsy soft questions from the government’s own side. “Would the Prime Minister confirm how wonderful he is?” is only a slight paraphrase – and is a waste of everyone’s time.

Third, the atmosphere and ethos is far too much about verbal strutting and intimidation. Take for example the Labour Party’s response to Gordon Brown’s dodgy first outing at PMQs. It was to ensure that Labour MPs made lots more noise next time round, heckling and shouting down Tory MPs as they rose to ask questions. Can you imagine running a workplace on that basis? Judge a manager but how loudly his or her staff shout and heckle other managers at the weekly staff meeting? Bizarre. Yet this is meant to pass for normal adult behaviour in the Palace of Westminster.

Posted in Op-eds and PMQs | 41 Comments

One day conference

An email arrives at the Voice from Danny Alexander MP reminding us that a one-day conference is imminent.

Danny helpfully reminds us that registration forms and an agenda for the day are available on the party website.

The purpose of the day is help set our next manifesto. Sessions are set aside to discuss all manner of things – but if you want to attend you will need to hurry with registration.

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The top five local Liberal Democrat websites in 2007

Based on the amount of traffic they’ve passed on to www.libdems.org.uk in 2007, the top five local Liberal Democrat sites were:

  1. brentlibdems.org.uk
  2. ealinglibdems.org.uk
  3. lorelyburt.org.uk
  4. vincentcable.org.uk 
  5. sedgefieldlibdems.org.uk

Congratulations to Brent on once again pulling in such heavy levels of traffic. No great surprise that the Ealing and Sedgefield Parliamentary by-elections propelled those sites into the top five, nor that Vince Cable’s high profile as acting leader lifted his site too, but impressive that Lorley Burt’s site has shot up the rankings.

In the second-half of 2006 the top five were:

  1. brentlibdems.org.uk
  2. northamptonlibdems.org.uk
  3. eastsurreylibdems.org.uk
  4. bristolwest-libdems.org.uk
  5. rochdalelibdems.org.uk
Posted in Online politics | 1 Comment

Any listeners?

Anyone out there who listens to Radio 4’s Any Questions on a Friday evening at 8pm?  We frequently have “open threads” for TV’s Question Time and we can easily run them for AQs too if there’s demand.

Tonight’s programme came from Chandler’s Ford.  Upmystreet.com tells us this is in Eastleigh Borough Council. Run by the Lib Dems.

It’s in the Romsey constituency.  Won by Lib Dem Sandra Gidley at the last General Election.

Actually, under boundary changes, it moves to the Winchester constituency next year.  Guess what, that’s represented by the Lib Dems too.

I’m sure experienced media-watchers can guess by now …

Posted in News | 3 Comments

Lib Dems surge in Shapps’ constituency

Watford PPC Sal Brinton brings an account of the excellent Lib Dem performance in Welham Green.

The first by-election of 2008, and the first under Nick Clegg’s Leadership has given us a swing to the Liberal Democrats of 22%, and a very strong second place, in Welham Green, part of Welwyn Hatfield District Council (Grant Shapps MP’s local seat).

The full results were —

Conservative: 539 votes; 41% (67% in 2006); -26% change
Labour: 88 votes; 7% (19% in ’06); -12% change
John Elvy (Liberal Democrat): 484 votes; 37% (15% in ’06); +22 % change
BNP: 214 votes; 16% (n/a ’06); +16% change

John was a strong candidate …

Posted in News | Tagged | 9 Comments

Two great new signings for LDV

We at LDV are delighted to announce two new regular columns will be gracing our pages in the months to come:

Lib Dem blogger, Jonathan Calder (aka Lord Bonkers) will be editing a new ‘Top of the Blogs’ feature, The Dirty Dozen, each month rounding up some of the best articles posted to non-Lib Dem political blogs. Introducing it on his own site, Jonathan writes:

I aim to keep a balance between pointing to interesting postings that we Lib Dems may have missed and laughing at the folly of our opponents. If you see any suitable posts on Labour or Tory

…

Posted in Site news | Tagged | 2 Comments

The five blogs nicest to the Lib Dems in 2007

Based on the amount of traffic they’ve passed on to www.libdems.org.uk during 2007, the top five blogs were:

  1. Liberal Democrat Voice
  2. Iain Dale
  3. Ming Campbell
  4. Lynne Featherstone
  5. Liberal England

Although LDV and Ming’s site regularly had links through to the party’s site, none of the others did. Iain Dale’s presence at number two isn’t though simply a reflection of his traffic levels: something I’ve noticed on other sites too is that links from Iain Dale often drive far more traffic relative to Iain’s readership than links from other people. Not sure though what it is about readers of that site that …

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Nick Clegg: Let’s shift power of politics away from Westminster

In addition to Nick’s ‘national’ new year message (read or watch), he has also been garnering regional coverage for his vision for the country. In today’s Yorkshire Post he writes:

I want 2008 to be the year we fix politics. There is no longer any question in my mind: politics is broken. It’s out of step with people’s lives and out of step with the modern world.

The instincts, the desires, the hopes and the fears of the British people are no longer reflected in our government or our political debate.

We have a choice. Either we give

…

Posted in News | 7 Comments

Something they probably forgot to tell you about New Hampshire

The New Hampshire primary, which is coming up next week, is given huge importance in the US political process. There’s no doubt that it makes for great drama and a ready flow of enjoyable political anecdotes. But does it all matter?

What’s almost never mentioned is that the majority of winners of open contests don’t go on to be their party’s candidate for president. (By “open” I mean a contest without an incumbent President or Vice-President, which is what both the Republican and Democrat contests are this year).

Here are the details: for the Democrats: in 1984 Mondale lost to Hart, in 1988 Dukakis …

Posted in LDVUSA | 5 Comments

Does it matter who won in Iowa?

Here’s the form book:

On the Democrat side, the previous three winners all went on to be their party’s nominee. It’s five out of seven overall since 1980.

On the Republican side, the previous four winners all went on to be their party’s nominee, and again it’s five out of seven since 1980.

If you look at only those contests where there was no incumbent President or Vice-President standing (as was the case yesterday for both sides), then the Iowa winner went on to be their party’s nominee four out of seven times overall: Reagan lost in 1980 to HW Bush, Dole won in …

Posted in LDVUSA | Tagged | 6 Comments

Opinion: Multiculturalism, Britishness & Community Cohesion

In the run up to the next general election, Gordon Brown will undoubtedly use one of his favourite themes: Britishness. He will do this as a smokescreen to disguise his own concerns and insecurities that as a Scot he will not receive sufficient support from Middle England. So he will roll out a pseudo debate that will ensure that those of us who are not from a White Anglo Saxon background, will be forced to prove our Britishness. Similar to the constant call for the majority of moderate, law abiding Muslims to constantly condemn terrorism, and demonstrate how we all embrace and celebrate Christmas.

I think its time we as Liberal Democrats, the party that has enshrined in our constitution our belief that we stand for equality, community, and non-conformity, had a serious debate about what we mean by this and how we are developing our policies and beliefs to respond to this debate.

Britain is a multicultural country: this statement was for decades a cause for celebration. Multiculturalism gained popularity in the 1960s. In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks on London in July 2005, many commentators, including Trevor Philips, then the Chair of the Commission for Racial Equality, called for it to be scrapped. We were told that it was a ‘failed experiment.’ Was it compatible to be from another culture and be British? Questions and articles continue to question this, as to how young British people from ethnic minority communities (with the spotlight more recently on people of Muslim background) were not integrating into British society, despite being British born.

Posted in Op-eds | 18 Comments

What does Iowa mean?

With the numbers crunched from the overnight caucus in Iowa, Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee have emerged to win their respective caucuses. Can Hillary still come back to win? How will Huckabee’s win impact the Republican race? The most active discussion of the ramifications is over at Mike Smithson’s Political Betting.

Posted in LDVUSA | Leave a comment

Nick Clegg’s new media spokesperson

The Independent has a story today on Hannah Gardiner taking over from Puja Darbari.

Amongst her other skills, Puja was always very helpful to bloggers seeking interviews with Ming – thank you Puja.

Hannah is the head of the party’s media operation, so this news sounds as if one integrated media operation is planned, rather than complementary party and leader’s office media operations.

Posted in News | 3 Comments

Lib Dems in the pink

There’s an in-depth interview with David Heath MP, Lib Dem shadow secretary of state for justice, in Pink News – you can read it in full here. Around half of it is devoted to exploring the Lib Dem stance on the proposed new offence of incitement to hatred on the grounds of sexual orientation.

The other half covers more varied ground, including David’s take on Ming Campbell’s resignation, whether he’s worried by David Cameron (he has a wafer-thin majority over the Tories), and what it’s like to be the only optician – ever – in the Commons.

Elsewhere, Pink
…

Posted in News | Tagged | 10 Comments

Clegg’s Commission on Social Mobility (updated)

News reaches the Voice that Nick Clegg is to establish a new commission to look into social mobility in Britain.  He has secured expert help from Martin Narey, who chairs the End Child Poverty Coalition and is the Chief Exec of Barnados.

Posted in News | 12 Comments

Housing crisis looms

Lib Dem Treasury spokesperson Julia Goldsworthy has warned that many more people will lose their homes next year as mortgages become increasingly unaffordable.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders have warned that up to 45,000 homes will be repossessed next year, with hard-up families having to go to their local authorities in last recourse.

But the building of new council homes has fallen every year since Blair came to power, with Labour building fewer council houses than even the Major government.  Those in financial trouble have less and less to fall back on. The number of families made homeless and reliant on local authority support following mortgage arrears has risen 28% since 2003.  So far this year local authorities in England have had to turn away a total 27,370 homeless households.

Posted in News | Tagged | 5 Comments

Times story on Lib Dem donations

The Times has reported allegations about party donations to the Lib Dems.

Pete Dunphy has a post with his take on the article.

UPDATE: The paper has a follow-up article today.

Posted in News | 6 Comments

Leader article: 2008 for Liberalism in Wales

2008 is shaping up to be an exciting year for Welsh Liberal Democrats. May’s local government elections will offer a real test of Labour’s unpopularity. The Welsh Liberal Democrats are the main challengers to Labour in all our largest urban areas. While the first-past-the-post system remains in place, we will be pushing to strengthen our position in Cardiff, Swansea, Wrexham and Bridgend – where we already lead the councils. Look out for Newport too, where – if as expected Labour lose overall control of the council – then all of Wales’ cities will have rejected their style of we-know-best politics.

It …

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Manchester councillor defects to Tories

A Lib Dem councillor in Manchester has defected to the Conservative party, giving them their first representation on the council since 1996. Faraz Bhatti had been PPC for Stretford and Urmston in 2005.

The Lib Dem leader on Manchester City Council, Simon Ashley, has told the Manchester Evening News that the defection comes after Cllr. Bhatti’s bitterness in a selection matter. The paper credits former Lib Dem MEP Saj Karim with engineering the defection.

Posted in News | 12 Comments
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