What a night! Hope returns to UK politics

Imagine it’s Bank Holiday Monday in 2027. We’re not going to be out in the sunshine. We nerds will be watching the rerun of the results of the (June) 2017 election. Ten years on, the drama will be just as nail biting as we relive some incredible moments. I can’t imagine the North East Fife or Richmond Park results ever becoming less tense. Maybe we’ll look on it and the events of the past year as a season of a hard-hitting political drama.

We’ll also be asking each other if we were still up for Salmond.

I have spent the last 51 days under the impression that we were going to end up with a massive Tory majority which would be interpreted as a mandate to do whatever they liked on Brexit. I thought we would end up with somewhere between 10 and 20 seats. I was right about one of those things. That movement in the polls was not, as I thought, a cynical manipulation of models to create a climate where the Tories could repeat the effective “Coalition of Chaos” nonsense from 2015. Turns out that the people are over that given the chaos that has ensued.

I have been pretty much neglecting you, dear readers, for the last few weeks because I’ve been putting everything I’ve got into the Edinburgh West campaign. It was thrilling to be part of a winning campaign. Two years ago, we had two councillors in the constituency. That was all. Now we have the MSP and the MP and five councillors.  How did we do it? Well, Alex Cole-Hamilton, Kevin Lang and Tom Utting started as soon as we lost in 2015 and built it back up. And do you know what? It was worth the strained knee that has been really painful these last few days. It was worth getting absolutely soaked for several hours today. To add insult to injury, as I left one polling station in the pouring rain to go to another, a van drove through a puddle and I was soaked from head to foot.

It’s incredible to think that Christine wasn’t even selected until 28 April. In a few short weeks, her name recognition was phenomenal. She will be a fantastic MP.

Who would have thought that we’d have 12 MPs, but only 4 from the previous Parliament?

Here are are new Golden Dozen:

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Election 2017 headlines – how many Lib Dem MPs are there and who are they?

At present, the Lib Dems have 12 confirmed victories, a net increase of 3. They are:

    1. Tom Brake (Carshaton and Wellington) – re-elected
    2. Vince Cable (Twickenham) – newly-elected
    3. Alistair Carmichael (Orkney and Shetland) – re-elected
    4. Ed Davey (Kingston and Surbiton) – newly-elected
    5. Tim Farron (Westmorland and Lonsdale) – re-elected
    6. Wera Hobhouse (Bath) – newly-elected
    7. Christine Jardine (Edinburgh West) – newly-elected
    8. Norman Lamb (North Norfolk) – re-elected
    9. Stephen Lloyd (Eastbourne) – newly-elected
    10. Layla Moran (Oxford West and Abingdon) – newly-elected
    11. Jamie Stone (Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross) – newly-elected
    12. Jo Swinson (East Dunbartonshire) – newly-elected
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Election Results discussion thread

Well, it’s done. The polls have closed and we have a long wait till the results come through, although the exit poll, which struck terror into us in 2015 will just have been published.

Most of us are at counts but we’ll be keeping an eye on what’s happening when we can.

This thread is for you to discuss what’s going on. It’s going to be a nail biting few hours.

Here are when some of the seats in which we have the most interest are likely to declare. The Press Association has a full list here. If all the Edinburgh seats declare …

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Still making your mind up how to vote…this might help

Enjoy

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Good luck everybody – and thanks

After 7 weeks’ solid campaigning, following 9 months of local elections campaigning, following 4 months’ EU referendum campaigning we finally reach the last polling day for a while.

This is timed to catch you as you have a break after your good mornings. Get some caffeine and sustenance as you’re going to need it.

The last 48 hours of an election campaign are always horrible. You always focus on what you haven’t done rather than the huge amount you have achieved. It’s a tense and anxious time. Even when you are really tired, you don’t sleep that well.

Polling day …

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Insanity, stupidity or senility?

Is it insanity, stupidity or senility that has led me to volunteer to deliver so many pigging Good Mornings tomorrow? Eight bundles!

Tim Farron says he’ll be up at 5am, so I will be up at 5am. I am not going to be outdone by Tim Farron. But I have had to carefully choose the sequence of the roads I will do. One has to carefully judge the extent to which residents in certain roads will tolerate some numpty stumbling around at 5am delivering “Good Morning” leaflets. (By the way, if you knock over some milk bottles, take a tip from an old colleague of mine and shout: “Sorry – Labour Party delivering leaflets!”. (That’s a joke by the way)).

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Photo feature: Ballot box goes off to Rathlin Island, Northern Ireland, a day early due to the ferry schedule

Some great photos from Getty Images (click on the arrows to see the slide show) which give a great view of the workings of democracy on “these islands” (as they say).

Mandy Hassan, an assistant area electoral officer for Antrim and mid Ulster, accompanies the ballot box on the ferry destined for Rathlin Island, Northern Ireland. There are 99 voters on the island and they usually have a 80% turnout.

Update 8/6: I changed the title upon sage advice from locals. Weather concerns were not a factor.

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Lib Dems poll 20% among children and young people

Thanks to York Membery for pointing us in the direction of the First News election poll. The newspaper aimed at children polled its readers and found that the Liberal Democrats are on 20%, which compares very well with our current poll ratings of rather less than that.

The Tories were only able to muster 27%, while Labour were ahead with 32%. The Greens took 15%.

This shows that there is definitely hope for the future.

It’s interesting to see that so many young children have a good impression of us, especially as …

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“You know who nailed it every single time? The Lib Dems”

This party has more than its fair share of grammar nerds. I have to say that a misplaced apostrophe brings me out in hives. For others, the misuse of punctuation is no laughing matter.

Many of us will therefore be pleased to see this critique of the manifestos for grammar and literacy. We do quite well. It is a funny piece and some of the award titles are inspired. My particular favourite is

The “Oh S**t, We Double-Booked The Brewery P**s-Up” Award for Complete And Utter Grammatical Incompetence

This is won by the Labour Party.

We, however, scoop the ultimate accolade:

The “Perhaps Give Up On Government And Become An English Teacher” Award for An Almost Perfect (In SPaG Terms) Manifesto<

The sentences flow well, the messaging is concise and persuasive, the grammar and punctuation are pretty much spot on, and they’re consistent (e.g. with words vs digits). While it doesn’t have quite the “rousing speech”-ness of the Conservative one, it’s pretty hard to fault.

Duncan Brack,(vice Chair of the Federal Policy Committee),  your work here is done.

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What will you be doing tomorrow?

After 50 days, voters go to the polls tomorrow. Liberal Democrat activists across the country will be doing what they can to get voters to the polls. People will be out on the street from 5am until the polls close at 10.

It’s a gruelling experience, especially if you then have to go to the count. That means more than 24 hours on the go.

Tomorrow is the day that determines how many MPs we will have on Friday. We know that in our key seats, we are in with a real shout to significantly increase our MPs. That will only happen if we have enough people on the ground in those seats to deliver leaflets, knock up our supporters and stand on polling stations.

Elections can be lost on polling day if we don’t have an effective operation or enough people on the ground.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about why I’ve always concentrated my effort on target seats:

I could not have it on my conscience to lose a key target by a few hundred votes while I’d concentrated on getting single figures in percentage terms in my home seat. Believe me I have seen that happen several times.

I know how good it has been to have people from across Edinburgh come to help us build our campaign momentum in Edinburgh West. A huge shout out to those who have come over from other parts of the Lothian region and other seats in Edinburgh. Last night in the pouring down rain, we had a huge team knocking on doors. All across the country, key seat campaigns have benefitted from members and activists moving to help them.

It’s so important that we consolidate all that effort by concentrating ALL of our effort in key seats tomorrow. I’d be so blunt as to say that if you are not in the race to win, you should not be doing anything in your own patch. Instead, you could help make the difference in a key seat. We don’t want to lose because we haven’t been able to contact enough voters to remind them to vote. It seems unbelievable that people might forget that it’s election day, but they do. Real life gets in the way. I can’t remember an election where I haven’t been able to get people to vote for us who might not have done so.

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Nick Clegg: No evidence that human rights laws undermine security

I wondered how long it would take for Theresa May to roll back on her always flimsy commitments to human rights. They didn’t even make it till polling day.

She said last night that she’s prepared to rescind human rights legislation as part of a counter terrorism review.

Nick Clegg criticised this approach on the Today programme, saying that there was no evidence that human rights laws had anything to do with the attacks. Listen here.

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Voter to Jo Swinson: “We’ve missed you”

The New Statesman has a profile of the East Dunbartonshire seat where Jo Swinson is hoping to regain the seat she lost to the SNP in 2015.

It’s clear that she is held in great affection by the voters:

The Liberal Democrat candidate is happy to play on her personal connection to the constituency where she was raised. This election has come so soon after the last one, at which Swinson lost the seat to the SNP, that she can run on her record. She had a reputation as a hard-working local representative, and voters seem to have retained a remarkable fondness for her. One young mum I encounter confirms Swinson has her vote, and then adds: “I feel connected to you. We’ve missed you.”

Another supporter admits that Swinson’s personality is swaying her choice. She dismisses sitting MP John Nicolson – “I don’t like him. Jo did more for us” – before turning to Swinson and softly saying: “I’m so glad you’re back.”

It’s impossible to tell if there are tears in Swinson’s eyes as she steps away from the doorstep, or just drops from the relentless rain. “When you’ve lost your seat and you know you worked hard, you know it’s not personal,” she says. “But still it’s nice when people actually say stuff like that and confirm it.”

And the New Statesman is on to the SNP’s spurious claims (which they are making in Edinburgh West and North East Fife too) that it’s the Tories that are their main opposition. 

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Willie Rennie’s final rallying call: Lib Dem MPs will put Scotland at heart of UK & UK at heart of Europe

Willie Rennie holds his last campaign rally in North East Fife where he hopes Elizabeth Riches will take the seat for the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

He will say

In place like East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West, North East Fife, the North East, Argyll and the Highlands people have a chance to have a MP that will stand strongly against independence and put the local community first.

In this election we have set out a clear and positive message that Scotland is best served when it is at the heart of the UK and the UK is at the heart of Europe. The

…

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Tim Farron’s final rally speech: Lib Dems will stop a bad Brexit deal, public service cuts and the Dementia Tax

Tim Farron ends his tour of target seats in Oxford on Wednesday night. This is part of his final pitch for votes at a rally there:

This election is only taking place because Theresa May is taking you for granted. She wants a blank cheque to do as she pleases and expects you to just hand it to her, even if what she proposes to do is as awful as the dementia tax, no questions asked. And as if to prove the point she has spent every day since she called the election trying to avoid answering any questions.

The Tories are heartless – but they have also shown themselves to be hapless.Look at the Dementia Tax, their NHS and schools cuts, or their cuts to the police that have made us less safe. They can’t even write a manifesto they can stand by, yet they want you to trust them with the biggest negotiations this country has ever done.

Have no doubt, Theresa May will get us a bad Brexit deal – and I mean dementia tax bad. That’s why I believe you should have the final say over the deal. Not Theresa May, not the politicians, you. And if you don’t like the deal you’re being offered, you should be able to reject it and choose to remain.

Remember – every vote for the Conservatives is a vote for the dementia tax, NHS cuts, sacked teachers and a bad Brexit deal. If that’s what you want, go for it. If it isn’t, then don’t write Theresa May a blank cheque.

If you are a Conservative supporter but those things worry you, then don’t do it. Vote for someone who will stand up for you and your family instead.

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Why young people need to vote Liberal Democrat to have a say in their future

Conservative or Labour Governments would deny young people a say in their future when they will have to live with the consequences for longer. That’s the message from Tim Farron as the Liberal Democrats’ manifesto for young people is launched.

Young people voted overwhelmingly in favour of remaining in the European Union and if allowed to vote in this election, 16-17 year olds would be influential in a number of battleground seats.

Tim said:

16- and 17-year-olds are a progressive force to be reckoned with and the Conservatives are determined to alienate this pro-European age group from the general election in order to secure a majority.

If 16-year-olds can pay taxes, marry and join the army, they are entitled to decide the future of our country too.

That’s why more Liberal Democrat MPs in Westminster are so important for Britain’s future. More Liberal Democrat MPs will stand up for young people, whether it’s on schools, on Brexit or on housing.

Stand up and make sure young people are represented in Parliament by voting for the Liberal Democrats this Thursday.

The  Young People’s Manifesto  includes a host of policies to give young people a brighter future, including:

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Bob Geldof: Lib Dems are the only party with the balls to oppose Brexit

Bob Geldof entered the campaign today with a robust announcement of support for the Lib Dems. He helped us win Richmond Park in December. Here’s hoping that his influence can help us to a good result in our key seats on Thursday.

Here’s what he had to say:

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WATCH: The Lib Dem manifesto launch in British Sign Language

From a couple of weeks ago, a reminder of Tim Farron’s speech from the Lib Dem manifesto launch in British Sign Language

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Commemorating 50 years since the Six Day War

On Monday, June 5, Palestinians and their supporters marked 50 years since the 1967 Six Day War, when Israeli forces occupied the remaining 22 percent of historic Palestine left over from the War of 1948.  During this military assault, Israeli forces displaced another 350,000 Palestinians from their homes, and turned many 1948 refugees into refugees again.

How long must Palestinians wait to return to their homeland? How long until the international community exercises its political will to force Israel to comply with international law? How long until the UK and other western countries, explicitly or tacitly, end the double standard in its foreign policy and unconditional support for Israeli policies that contravene international law and deprive Palestinians of their basic human rights?

The international community is gradually losing patience with Israel’s occupation. U.N Security Council Resolution 2334 in December 2016, which refers to Israel as an “occupying power”, condemns “all measures aimed at altering the demographic composition, character and status of the Palestinian Territory occupied since 1967, including East Jerusalem”, and condemns, inter alia, the construction and expansion of settlements, transfer of Israeli settlers, confiscation of land, demolition of homes and displacement of Palestinian civilians.  The Resolution furthermore states in the clearest terms that the UN Security Council “will not recognize any changes to the 4 June 1967 lines, including with regard to Jerusalem, other than those agreed by the parties through negotiations.”

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WATCH: Choices…a brighter future with the Liberal Democrats

There is only one party offering an alternative to the awful Brexit planned by the Conservatives, backed by Labour. Guess who that might be…

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How the Dutch embed anti-radicalisation efforts in stronger local “joined-up” government and co-operation

Radicalisation amongst young muslims often starts with exclusion from job opportunities, dropping out of school and/or sliding into petty crime and youth vandalism. Many famous jihadis started out as drinking, partying and stealing adolescents and youths; to be turned around abruptly like many converted “sinners” in many religions. It is also connected to growing up in problematic families (from which orthodox or jihadi Islam seems to offer a refuge; certainties their own family fails to offer).

And intelligence about who is at risk of such radicalization trajectories always starts with good, steady community policing; in Tim Farron’s words: with “information being passed on”, and building up “knowledge about who’s who, and who needs to be kept under surveillance”. Cutting police numbers outside the “terrorism specialists” as May claims to have done, means cutting more into ordinary community policing.

The Netherlands also has had native jihadis killing people on the street (for example the 2004 killing of muslim-mocking polemicist and filmmaker Theo van Gogh.  The jihadist propaganda from the Belgian/Flemish “Sharia4Belgium/Sharia4Holland”-sect spilled over into Dutch public debates, inviting Anjem Choudari to a 2011 press conference.

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WATCH: Nick Clegg on why a “self destructive” hard brexit is so damaging for our economy and security

Nick Clegg has given a big speech on Brexit this morning. You can watch it here.

The highlights:

  • May and Corbyn’s conspiracy of silence as they pursue the hardest of Brexits – the politics of evasion and fantasy
  • The cost of leaving the single market and customs union
  • How the poorest will be most adversely affected by a hard Brexit while the rich will be relatively insulated
  • May will think she has a mandate if she gets a majority on Thursday but there are still so many unknowns
  • There is a chance to avoid all this – by electing Lib Dem MPs who will fight for our place in the single market and for a final say on the deal.

The full text is below:

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Why is it so difficult for politicians to understand social care?

Social care is any extra help that a person needs with day to day living. It might be getting out and about, maintaining relationships, preparing meals, washing, paying bills or cleaning and maintaining the house. Anything that does not require really specialised knowlege but is, nonetheless, essential for a person’s wellbeing. Infants, small children and those with disabilities often need social care. Most adults can manage well into their old age by hiring someone like a gardener or a cleaner except if they have a medical condition such arthritis, Parkinson’s or dementia. Even then, most people can pay for their care themselves or claim attendance allowance to help them to do so. The problem comes in when their care reaches such a level that this benefit does not cover the cost of their care and they have depleted their savings. Currently, the local authority will help towards the cost of a person’s care – or even organise the care – if the person’s savings have depleted to £23,250. This does not currently include the value of the person’s house if they own it. If the person needs to go into a care home or other form of residential care, they are currently expected to fund their own care by selling their house and will only be eligible for support from the local authority when their savings have depleted to £23,250.

The problem that Theresa May has had is that the conservatives have tried to level the playing field by saying that the value of the person’s home should taken into consideration regardless of whether they have care in the home or in a residential setting. This means that a person with a home worth £500,000 will need to pay for their care for many years before receiving any public assistance. To top it off, the Tories did not agree to the £72,000 cap proposed by the Liberal Democrats in government so Theresa May was left holding the bag as many people realised that their life savings may go on care and that they may only be able to pass on minimal savings to their children and grandchildren. On BBC Question Time last night, Mrs. May committed that people would “not have to sell their homes in their lifetime” but this is rather a big promise and one which I, for one, do not believe she can keep.

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Tim Farron on Question Time – discusssion thread

So, what did you think?

I thought it was Tim’s best performance by far of the election campaign. That was all the more remarkable given he was up at 6 am cooking breakfast for a whole stack of Edinburgh West folk.

The only thing I could pick fault with was that he could have pointed out that the SNP are using the Brexit vote to try and get another referendum on independence while at the same time  going further and further away from offering EU membership.
Tim was clear,  passionate, at times funny and the audience really seemed to like him.

He was definitely …

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For World Environment Day: The Lib Dems’ vision

Our digital people have been excelling themselves as usual this campaign.

On this World Environment Day, see below the video the party has put together outlining the problems and our vision for dealing with them.

The party would not have been happy to have come just behind Labour in the Friends of the Earth rating of manifestos. Tim Farron has today sent them …

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Farron: Trump is an embarrassment. May must withdraw the State Visit invitation

Sadiq Khan’s calm leadership of London through two awful terrorist atrocities is worthy of praise. Not, though, if you are Donald Trump, who took to Twitter to attack the London Mayor.

Publicly humiliating someone who is working all hours dealing with a major incident is not on if you are a private citizen. If you are the leader of the free world, it’s completely unacceptable. This is the guy to whom Theresa May has granted the high honour of a State Visit.

Trump has shown on so many occasions that he doesn’t deserve it – not least because he attacks Sadiq Khan with what is becoming monotonous regularity.

Tim Farron has said that the invitation should be withdrawn.

Trump is an embarrassment to America.

In the wake of three recent terrorist attacks, two of which killed people on the streets of London, Donald Trump decides to use his time in the Oval Office to attack the Mayor of London over twitter.

Sadiq Khan has shown dignity and leadership.

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Tim Farron: A Britain where everyone is treated fairly

Tim Farron, Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn have written responses to Operation Black Vote’s Race Equality Manifesto. Tim’s was first published here and is reproduced below.

Liberal Democrats believe that every person is entitled to the same opportunity to succeed in life. That means breaking down the barriers that hold people back, fighting discrimination and defending individuals against an overreaching government. We strive for a country that is welcoming and open-minded. One that is optimistic, that rejects prejudice and embraces diversity.

We stand for the everyday citizen and against unchecked power, and that is one of the reasons why this election is so important. Because, make no mistake, Theresa May called this election to amass more power so that she does not have to consult on a Brexit deal no matter how bad the implications might be for Britain.

Liberal Democrats would therefore not only stop Theresa May driving Britain’s economy off a cliff-edge with a hard Brexit. We would also stop any attempts to scrap the Human Rights Act or withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights. We would also strengthen the UK’s commitment to international human rights law.

Equality is therefore at the heart of our policies. Whether it’s tackling racism, addressing poor physical and mental healthcare by adding 1p on income tax to boost funding for the NHS, enshrining equal marriage into law, or protecting the rights of workers in the gig economy. Liberal Democrats are proud of our record on equality, but we know there is much more to do, and this includes being more representative as a party.

We are slowly getting there, with three times as many BME candidates standing in winnable seats this election following measures implemented in 2016 which means we are the only political party using every available measure under the Equality Act to improve diversity. This enables us to reserve places on shortlists for BME candidates. The Liberal Democrats believe we should be able to have all BME shortlists and regardless of who the Government is on 9 June and we will continue to lobby Ministers to make this change.

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Lib Dems highlight “Brexit Brain Drain”

The Liberal Democrats have discovered that more than than 1,300 academics from the European Union have left British universities in the past year, prompting concerns of a Brexit brain drain.

A recent analysis by the Russell Group, which represents 24 of the UK’s leading universities, found that there are 24,860 members of staff from other EU countries at UK universities, making up 23% of all academics.

Across the country there has been a 30% increase in the number of EU academics quitting over the past year compared to two years ago, according to figures released following Freedom of Information requests.

Edinburgh University suffered the third highest loss of staff of all those shown in the UK, with 96 EU academics leaving in 2016-2017, (up from 76 in 2015-2016 and 62 the previous year).

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The day Tim Farron cooked my breakfast

Eighteen years ago today, at around 5:30 in the morning, I was being wheeled back to the ward with my new baby. Try as I might, I couldn’t sleep because I was too besotted to take my eyes off the gorgeous bundle in the little hospital cot.

At that time this morning, I was hitting the M8 to drive into Edinburgh. What could I possibly be doing at a cafe in Corstorphine at 6 am with Edinburgh Western MP Alex Cole-Hamilton and Edinburgh West Lib Dem candidate Christine Jardine?

The answer duly emerged – after a slight detour for this vehicle. There are, apparently, two establishments called Cafe Vigo in Edinburgh and, you guessed it, they went to the wrong one.

Tim was kicking off a tour of key seats in Edinburgh West, one of the best prospects for a gain on Thursday. He later went to another – East Dunbartonshire.

They disappeared into the kitchen surrounded by a gaggle of hungry journalists.

Tim made fried egg rolls, Christine made bacon rolls. And they were good, too. I had a fried egg one. Normally, I like them with a softer yolk, but it was just as well this one a tad over-cooked to avoid mess.

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Mystery posters in Somerset

Mark Blackburn is our man in Frome, in Somerset. It seems he has an anonymous supporter who has been putting up posters around the town. The word Hope appears beneath a portrait of Mark. The posters are numbered as a limited edition but not signed.

The Lib Dem team do not know who the artist is, who who has been setting them up, but they are delighted at the clear message of support.

Mark said:

We are also privileged to have one left in our HQs. Thank you to the artist who created it. Thank you for your support and your trust.

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ALDE Party Council review: meanwhile, in Europe…

On Saturday, the European liberal family gathered in the Slovene capital, Ljubljana, to compare notes and to start the process of preparation for the 2019 European Parliamentary elections. It offers your correspondent an opportunity for reflection and, if you’ll excuse me, more than a hint of regret.

But first, what will be happening? The ALDE Party Bureau have appointed Taavi Roivas, the former Prime Minister of Estonia, to chair a ten member Manifesto Committee, whose task it will be to gather evidence and ideas from across Europe and beyond the narrow confines of …

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