What Jeremy Hunt should include in his autumn statement 2023

The autumn statement will be on Wednesday. The economy faces three problems: inflation is still above the 2% target, economic growth is too low and forecast by the Bank of England to be zero next year, and unemployment is rising. Inflation was 4.6% in October, and unemployment rose by 159,000 in September to 1.464 million, an increase of 0.5% to 4.3%.

It was announced in September that borrowing was £11.3 billion less than forecast in March. Some are forecasting that the Chancellor of the Exchequer will have £15bn ‘headroom’ instead of his forecast of £6.5bn.

The most …

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The Rosalynn Carter I knew

Years ago in Plains, Georgia, people had to stand in two separate lines, for Republicans and for Democrats, when they registered to vote. Rosalynn Carter told me she used to be the only white person standing in the Democratic line.

The world has lost a tireless campaigner for justice and peace with the passing of former First Lady Rosalynn Carter, age 96. She never lost sight of the moral calling to give a voice to the world’s voiceless and persecuted, and she advocated for those with mental illness decades before it became a more socially acceptable subject.

I had the honour of knowing Mrs Carter through the work of the Carter Center, which she and her husband Jimmy established after they left the White House in 1980. Rather than making money from corporate directorships or after dinner speeches, the Carters threw themselves into creating an NGO to fight disease and poverty in the developing world, and to ensure elections were free and fair.

In the early 2000s, my husband Henry and I were invited to a dinner in London to meet Mrs Carter who was on her way to see their projects in Africa. We were unenthusiastic, assuming we would be stuck on a table at the back of a banqueting room, there to be squeezed for money.

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One in three Brits miss work while waiting for healthcare

  • Shock poll reveals staggering number of working UK adults say they have missed work in the past year due to being stuck on waiting lists or attempting to see a GP or dentist
  • Half of young adults (18-34) missed work last year due to NHS waiting lists
  • Lib Dem MP warns crisis in the NHS is damaging economic growth as one in three adults missed work waiting for an appointment in the last year
  • Party calls on the Government to use the £13bn windfall to deliver 8,000 GPs, cut waiting times and improve mental health support, among other measures

A new poll, commissioned by the Liberal Democrats, has found that one in three working adults say they have missed work in the last year while waiting for a medical appointment or treatment on the NHS.

That includes over half (54%) of young adults (18-34) who say they’ve been forced to miss work in the past year due to soaring health waiting lists, including seeing GPs.

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In Full: Willie Rennie’s Charles Kennedy Lecture on the importance of listening in a noisy world

Every year, round about Charles Kennedy’s birthday on 25th November, the Charles Kennedy Lecture takes place in his memory. Willie Rennie was invited to deliver this year’s and chose the topic “Listening in a noisy World.”

It’s worth reading the whole thing as it sets out how we as liberals have such an important role in breaking down barriers and bringing people together. He also gives examples of how really persisting with someone can help us all.

One of the things I noticed from reading his speech was that there don’t seem to have been any women giving this lecture so far. Maybe that should change next year.

Anyway, here’s Willie’s lecture in full:

Charles Kennedy was the secret ingredient that made me the new and 63rd Liberal Democrat Member of Parliament: the highest water mark, so far, of Liberal Democrat MPs at Westminster.

I was the candidate in the 2006 Dunfermline by election when the party was enduring a series of scandals.  For the party it felt like a crisis.

Charles had just stood down as Leader acknowledging, for the first time, his alcoholism.

And there seemed to be other daily revelations which bedevilled the party.

Despite all this scandal and the fact that Dunfermline had been Labour for an age and Communist before that, we still believed we had a chance, but we needed something extra to get us over the line.

Charles was persuaded to campaign for me – his first public appearance since his resignation.

As we slowly made our way down Dunfermline High Street surrounded by the press scrum, yes I said SCRUM, an elderly lady shouted loudly from the side-lines: ‘Charles, we love you.’

Charles composed himself. Then with a smile emerging across his face he replied.  “Now madame, I’m in quite enough trouble as it is without any of that kind of thing.”

Everyone laughed, it broke the tension, and we went onto to win the seat.

It was Charles at his best. Warm, engaging, humorous, self-effacing, and above all, a fully paid-up member of the human race

Through all the noise and fuss he listened and connected in an instant.

Subject and previous speakers

That’s the subject of my lecture this evening.

‘Listening in a noisy world’.

It is an honour to be here following some impressive contributors but most of all to honour Charles.  Your series of lectures is a fine one, and I want to thank you for that.  

I want to also thank Ally and Ferguson Transport & Shipping for sponsoring this evening’s event.  Without a good sponsor these occasions just would not happen.

Previous speakers have some common themes: Charles’ character is at the centre.

Jim Wallace, delivered the first lecture, covering the issue of respect. 

Alistair Campbell talked about friendship, mental health, addiction, and what Charles would have thought of Brexit.  

It spoke to the fondness that Nicola Sturgeon had for Charles that she delivered the lecture despite competing demands as First Minister.

Brian Taylor spoke of Charles’ compassion.

David Steel gave his perspective on the role of spin doctors.

And John Thurso shared Charles’ highland character.

Rebel, not rebel

When you look back over the life of Charles Kennedy you see a man who balanced the competing tensions of independence of mind and partnership with others.  

He was never branded a rebel although he did often tilt against the prevailing view.

Coalition

Charles was one of only a handful who opposed the coalition with the Conservatives.

Although he did oppose it, he did so in the most respectful way possible. 

Charles politely and intelligently expressed his difference of opinion.  

He made the argument to the MPs.  He articulated that opposition fairly in public.  He listened.

Iraq

On Iraq, he was decried as a quisling by supporters of the war.  In the commons he was surrounded by them, but he carried on making his case through the noise.  

He was careful not to be misunderstood by opponents of the war.  He was not a pacifist he told a London rally, that it was a finely balanced judgement, that the solution was a technical one involving weapons inspectors. 

He could have easily played to the noisy gallery, but he didn’t just tell them what they wanted to hear.  That would not have reflected his true position. And he preferred honesty no matter how difficult.

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Rob Blackie tackles Met Police on stop and search study failure

Lib Dem London Mayoral Candidate Rob Blackie has been persistent in holding the Mayor to account over civil liberties issues.

He has identified through Freedom of Information requests that the Metropolitan Police has made little progress on crucial research into stop and search, three years on from promising to do so.

The answers  show that the Mayor’s office has failed to get  the Met to make any meaningful progress on the bodycam research project:

In June 2023 the Mayor’s Office for Policing and Crime stated to Rob Blackie:

MOPAC held debrief sessions with the Met in October 2022 to discuss the issues, but the Review was told only four of the initial 20 coders attended, some of whom had not done any coding…In January 2023, discussions took place between the Met and MOPAC around a potential solution to allow research to progress and the Met set up a specific group to progress the work. This was due to meet in February 2023 but little progress was made. The current status is that there is a meeting due to take place between MOPAC and MPS at the end of June to progress and decide the next steps of the project.

When Rob asked in July 2023 how the June meeting had made progress, MOPAC replied that:

There are no current outcomes or timelines we can provide on the progression of the project.

This all comes from the Action Plan published in November 2020 which was supposed to improve trust and confidence in the Metropolitan Police.  It is disappointing, especially given the Casey Review’s conclusion earlier this year that the Met was institutionally racist, homophobic and misogynist.

You would think they would want to get a wiggle on to show that they were improving.

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Prosecuting the Lowery photo football ‘fan’ sets a dangerous precedent

Football fans across the country were rightly appalled by pictures of two Sheffield Wednesday fans appearing to use the image of a young cancer victim to mock their opponents. One imagines that if, as seems likely, they both receive lengthy bans from all football grounds in the country, few tears will be shed. Certainly not from the Lowery family, who have acted with dignity throughout.

However, the ramifications have gone further than this. The pair were both arrested, and the man holding up the image has been charged with a public order offence and sentenced to 12 weeks in prison, suspended for 18 months, in addition to 200 hours of community service.

It’s not the first time that football fans have been prosecuted for similarly vile behaviour. Earlier this year, a Man United fan was fined £1000 for wearing a shirt mocking victims of the Hillsborough disaster, while a Plymouth fan was fined £750 for claiming on Twitter that their striker was “on fire like Mick Philpott’s house”.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

China and USA

The Sino-American goalposts have changed. Two years ago, the Chinese economy was booming and the US was struggling to emerge from a damaging coronavirus pandemic.

But as Presidents Biden and XI met in San Francisco this week the American economy was booming at 4.7 percent. The Chinese economy was reeling from a burst property bubble and government crackdowns have led to a flight of foreign capital.

When the Chinese star was in the ascendant so were the sabre-rattling “Wolf Warriors”. But the changed circumstances has led to the dismissal of bellicose foreign minister Qin Gang and last month Xi replaced Defense Minister General Li Shangu who was under US sanctions for overseeing the sale of weapons to Russia.

Beijing cannot afford poor relations with Washington at the moment. And Washington – with the problems of Ukraine, Gaza and forthcoming presidential elections, doesn’t want to have to worry about China. All of which could explain why the leaders of the world’s most powerful countries managed a cordial meeting in San Francisco this week.

But will it hold and can they build on it? The question is still hanging. A week before the meeting US and Chinese diplomats held a meeting to discuss each other’s nuclear arsenals. It was the first such a meeting and a good sign.

Climate change is clearly a topic to build on. It is difficult for the two biggest economies to dispute the importance of saving the planet. There are differences on how to handle fossil fuels but agreement on methane gas emissions.

A big topic in the US is opioid abuse, in particular fentanyl. A sizeable chunk of the drug is produced in Chinese laboratories and shipped to America. Last year fentanyl was responsible for 75,000 American deaths. The two leaders agreed to discuss the issue further Xi stressed that the easiest way to stop the problem would be for Americans to stop buying the drug.

Touchiest topic is Taiwan. On that Biden-Xi agreed to disagree. But they did agree to resume communications between each other’s military establishments. These were suspended after the visit to Taiwan of US Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Both sides that it was vital for the opposing militaries to talk to one another to avoid accidents. As Xi put it: “Conflict and confrontation has unbearable consequences for both sides.”

Taiwan

The potential spanner in the Sino-American diplomatic thaw is January’s presidential and parliamentary elections in Taiwan.

At the moment the Democratic People’s Party (DPP) controls both the presidency and the parliament and opinion polls show them way ahead to stay in power.

This is not good news for either Washington or Beijing. This is because the DPP is moving Taiwan to declare itself an independent sovereign nation. This is opposed by Beijing because Taiwan would then be able to offer itself as a multi-party capitalist democratic alternative to the one-party autocracy on the mainland.

The US administration would be unhappy because an independent Taiwan would undermine its policy of “strategic ambiguity” which allows it bestow de jure diplomatic recognition on communist China while enjoying de facto relations with Taiwan.

The problem is an old one. It dates back to 1949 when the Nationalist Chinese leader Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan and claimed to represent all of China from the offshore island. Until 1979 successive American administrations agreed with him.

The unilateral independence route is not a foregone conclusion. The Kuomintang Party (KMT) is committed to watering down the independence demands and improving relations with Beijing. This week the party announced it was joining forces with the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) to fight the elections. The outcome could have far-reaching consequences.

Turkey and Germany

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Observations of an Expat: The Revenge of Trump

Vengeance is mine sayeth ex-president Donald Trump. And he is preparing to wreak it on his political opponents.

Beavering away in the back rooms of Trump campaign headquarters are scores of political acolytes drawing up plans for a second Trump Administration.

The first term caught Trump and his supporters unprepared. The 2016 presidential transition is regarded by many as one of the worst in American history with key appointments taking months – sometimes years – to be filled. And when the jobs were assigned the people were either ill-suited, ill-prepared or – in Trump’s opinion – not loyal enough.

According to a range of sources inside and outside the Trump campaign, that will not happen if Donald Trump is returned to the White House in 2024. The right people have been identified; are being briefed and will hit the ground running with policies and legislation that will make Trump’s first term look like a Victorian tea party.

For a start, the ex-president is out for revenge. He is a man who bears a grudge and acts on it. His key targets are said to be President Biden, his family, former Attorney General William Barr, the FBI, the Department of Justice, the courts, the civil service and anyone who says he lost the 2020 presidential election.

Donning the victim’s mantle, he has already claimed that he is fighting for every little man and woman who – like him – “has been wronged and betrayed. I am,” he told this year’s Conservative Political Action Convention, “your retribution.”

But there is more, as Trump made clear in near-apocalyptic terms in a recent Veteran’s Day speech in which he pledged “to root out the radical left-wing thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country.”

As for policies, on the domestic front, the ex-president plans to cut taxes, reduce federal spending, dramatically increase the number of political appointments to federal jobs, re-impose his Muslim ban, deport children born in the US of illegal foreign parents, finish building his southern border wall, defund the FBI, impose the death penalty on drug dealers, ban teachers from teaching multi-culturalism and multi-racism, increase oil and gas production, impose a ten percent tariff on all imports and punish doctors who help transsexual patients.

And if anyone dares to take to the streets to protest, Trump says he will invoke the 1807 Insurrection Act to suppress them.

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ALDC By-election report, 16th November

There were 6 principal by-elections this week. Lib Dem candidates contested 5 of the elections. As well as scoring a terrific gain in Bolton, every Lib Dem candidate moved forwards and increased our vote share – some spectacularly so!

The only place to start is Bolton MBC where there were 2 by-elections on Thursday.

We gained Westhoughton North & Hunger Hill ward from the Conservatives with an 11% increase in our vote share (while everyone else went backwards). Congratulations to Councillor Deirdre McGeown and the whole team in Bolton on a superb win.

Bolton MBC, Westhoughton North & Hunger Hill
Liberal Democrats (Deirdre McGeown): 959 (41.5%, +11.3%)
Conservative: 665 (28.8%, -0.7%)
Labour Party: 440 (19%, -1.1%)
Independent: 118 (5.1%, -5.3%)
Reform: 101 (4.4%, -0.7%)
Green Party: 28 (1.2%, -3.4%)

Also in Bolton, Kearsley ward was up for election. Thank you to Chris Cooper for flying the Lib Dem flag and making sure there was a Lib Dem option on the ballot paper.

Bolton MBC, Kearsley
Farnworth and Kearsley First: 1,081 (66%, +42.5%)
Labour: 365 (22.3%, +8.2%)
Reform UK: 121 (7.4%, +1.2%)
Conservative: 38 (2.3%, -6.9%)
Green Party: 18 (1.1%, new)
Liberal Democrats (Charles Cooper): 15 (0.9%)

We came within a whisker of another great gain in North Somerset DC in Wrington ward. Lib Dem candidate Samantha Louden-Cooke achieved 27.5% of the vote, despite there being no Lib Dem candidate there at the last election, and came within 50 votes of the winning Green Party candidate. Well done to Samantha and the Lib Dem team in North Somerset. A great result from nowhere and a brilliant base to build on.

North Somerset DC, Wrington
Green Party: 336 (32.7%, new)
Conservative: 297 (28.9%,+6.8)
Liberal Democrats (Samantha Louden-Cooke): 283 (27.5%, new)
Labour: 112 (10.9%, new)

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LibLink: Vince Cable on industrial strategy

Vince Cable has been writing at CommentCentral under the headline: Industrial strategy is vital to boosting growth. He bemoans the closure of blast furnaces in Port Talbot and Scunthorpe.

He says:

The closures seem to be a mockery of the optimistic story about a future based on green jobs since the closures are prompted by a wish to move the industry onto a less energy and carbon intensive (and more modest) footing, using electric arc furnaces to turn scrap back into steel. The government is putting in £1 billion to help finance the transition.

But critics point to a dearth of constructive ideas for the industry. Britain produces 10 million tonnes of scrap steel a year, less than a third of which is currently recycled (the rest being exported and recycled elsewhere), so why are there no plans to boost domestic production? Why are there no plans to use hydrogen as a reducing agent in updated blast furnaces making use of Britain’s resources of offshore wind to generate ‘green’ hydrogen through electrolysis? Where is the strategy?

He compares the UK with countries such Japan, China, Germany and Israel and praises their industrial strategy.

After a brief flurry of free market discipline, the Coalition was soon forced into reactive intervention to stop large factory closures. I decided to launch a comprehensive, sector based, industrial strategy. Conservative colleagues went along with it, some reluctantly. There was positive engagement from business – and trades unions – and in sectors like vehicles, aerospace, life sciences and creative industries. there were industry-wide strategies that were acted upon.

To my pleasant surprise, Theresa May kept and developed the industrial strategy, under Greg Clark. It couldn’t last. With Boris Johnson came ‘f**k business’ and also pathological short-termism (though Dominic Cummings managed to get the DARPA ‘moon-shot’ project launched). Truss and her free-market fundamentalists like Rees Mogg and Kwarteng had no time for ‘industrial strategy’.

Sunak seems to be going down the same path. In contrast Labour is keen to give industrial policy a central position.

He concludes:

I like to claim that industrial strategy was one of the Lib Dems’ big but unsung achievements in the Coalition government. But industrial strategy depends on shared, cross-party ownership. In that spirit, I would like to see Jeremy Hunt using his Autumn Statement to give his support to industrial strategy as part of his programme for boosting growth.

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The shoplifting epidemic

I live in one of those quieter outer London suburbs, but over the last few months I have noticed that larger shops have introduced higher levels of security. Some supermarkets now have a member of staff apparently on greeting duty, and others have fitted extra barriers and even gates.

A large M&S Food store near me now has gates into and out of the drinks section – I once got stuck in there when the exit gate refused to open and I couldn’t go back out through the entry gate until someone else approached it and triggered the latch. Yes, I know …..

It seems shoplifting has increased dramatically. And part of the reason is because the response rate from the police is so low, and shoplifters know they can get away with it.

Back in September an article in the Guardian carried the troubling headline: ‘It’s organised looting’: UK in grip of a shoplifting epidemic, say store owners.  It claimed that shoplifting had doubled in the last three years.

(The Co-op) claimed that police failed to respond to 71% of serious retail crimes, and that bosses were considering whether it was safe and commercially viable to keep some branches open.

Paul Gerrard, the chain’s director of public affairs and a former customs officer, described some of the shoplifting as “organised looting”, saying gangs would climb over kiosks and brazenly empty shelves into rucksacks, construction bags and even wheelie bins.

The company said it had been forced to spend more than £200m to counter criminal behaviour, with measures such as body-worn cameras and headsets for staff and “dummy” packaging for items such as £6 boxes of Ferrero Rocher chocolates and £6 jars of Kenco coffee to deter thieves from looting or “bulk-shoplifting”.

It has also hired undercover guards, often former police officers, who can detain shoplifters until police arrive. But Gerrard often feels their efforts are in vain because officers don’t always attend.

“We then have to let the shoplifters go, which actually is worse than intervening in the first place because that means they know, and they’ll tell all their mates, that even if they catch you the police don’t turn out. The point here is that the risk for an offender is minimal,” he said.

Rob Blackie, the Lib Dem candidate for London Mayor, has been looking into this problem across London. He has discovered that there have been 23,881 calls for shoplifting to the police on 999 since the beginning of the year. That is a massive increase of 49% on the comparable period last year.

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Brian Cotter 1936-2023, former Lib Dem MP for Weston-super-Mare

Brian was born in London, the son of a doctor from Weston-super-Mare and was educated in London and Somerset. After doing his National Service he entered business, eventually running his own small manufacturing company in Hampshire. Brian married Eyleen in the 1960s and they had two sons and a daughter together.

Brian came into politics relatively late, not joining the Liberal Party until his 40s. He became active in Woking and was elected to Woking Borough Council in 1986, as a Liberal/SDP Alliance candidate, representing the Mount Hermon West ward. He retained this seat until standing down in 1990.

Brian moved to Weston-super-Mare that year following his selection as our Parliamentary Candidate for the 1992 General Election. He set about campaigning with gusto and personally knocked on thousands of doors and helped to recruit new members and deliverers everywhere he went. He took us to a strong second place securing more votes than any Liberal or Liberal Democrat candidate in the history of the seat.

Brian was reselected and contested the seat again at the 1997 General Election, winning this time with a majority of 1,274 over the Conservative – the first non-Conservative for 74 years. He successfully defended the seat in 2001, holding on with a reduced majority.  In 2005, Brian was defeated by the Conservatives, and in the following year was nominated to the House of Lords by the late Charles Kennedy MP and he served in the upper chamber until his death.

My standout memories of campaigning with Brian include in the run-up to the 1997 General Election when we were expecting a flying visit from Paddy – literally, as he was landing in a helicopter on the beach. Paddy was running late (of course) and the Conservative candidate drove round and round the Beach Lawns – where Brian and around a hundred of our supporters were waiting for Paddy – and heckled through the loudspeaker on her Land Rover: “They seek him here, they seek him there, they seek that Paddy everywhere”. Brian delivered an impromptu speech and pointed out that if the best the Tories could do was watch us then we were winning already – and he was right.

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Inflation figures “cold comfort” – Olney

So that’s all fine then. Inflation has fallen to 4.6% and Rishi Sunak is a hero for delivering on his promise?

Err, no.

The champagne corks popping in Downing Street are a bit premature and research commissioned by the Liberal Democrats  shows why.  Commons Library and Liberal Democrat research shows that average earners have seen their annual wages eroded with a real terms cut of almost £700, the equivalent of a 3p rise in Income Tax.

Our Treasury spokesperson Sarah Olney MP said:

Rishi Sunak congratulating himself over today’s figures will be cold comfort for all the hard-working people still bearing the brunt of this Conservative chaos.

For months on end, people across the country have been watching as their pay cheque gets squeezed from all sides, draining every spare penny. From the ever-increasing cost of the weekly shop to skyrocketing mortgage payments.

Enough is enough. With next week’s Autumn Statement the Government must properly help families and pensioners struggling with the cost-of-living crisis and give our NHS the funding it desperately needs.

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Cameron’s return: the ministerial appointments process needs reform

This Monday the country awoke to the news that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had finally sacked Home Secretary Suella Braverman. This was followed by the arrival of none other than former Prime Minister David Cameron at Downing Street, sparking rumours of a return to government.

Cameron’s place in Sunak’s faltering administration was soon confirmed, making him the first former Prime Minister to return to government since Alec Douglas-Home served as foreign secretary (1970 to 1974).

The top line here is that the current crop of Conservative MPs have been ignored in favour of someone outside of parliament, resorting to a former prime minister. Cameron’s appointment shows the dearth of talent within the Conservative parliamentary ranks and further exposes a government running out of steam. With Sunak on track to leave Downing Street next year, this is a left-field gamble by a struggling PM. It also has the bonus for the government of deflecting attention from Suella Braverman’s appalling record, which would have been this week’s focus otherwise.

However, Cameron’s appointment also raises an interesting question about the mechanics of our democracy. Currently, ministers can only be appointed from the House of Commons and House of Lords. In the case of David Cameron, he has been appointed to the House of Lords purely in order to serve in cabinet.

We need to reform Parliament – Proportional Representation for the Commons and a democratic upper chamber – but there’s also a strong case for reforming the process for appointing ministers who do not serve in the House of Commons. The only way to do this now is to give someone a life peerage or stand down an MP and force a by-election. That’s an absurd way to run a country. Let this sink in: David Cameron has been made a legislator for the rest of his life as a result of this appointment by Sunak.

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Rwanda Ruling: Immoral plan was huge waste of time and money

There was never much of a chance that the Government’s cruel plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda would be found lawful. And this morning, the Supreme Court announced that it was unlawful.

But the Government in general and successive home secretaries in particular must have known that. And yet still they chose to blow what was probably millions of public money on pursuing this through the Courts as part of their culture war.

For some, though, at the sharp end of this policy, so much harm has already been done. I can only imagine the fear felt by those on the first flight, which was only halted minutes before it was due to take off last June. They will never forget what they went through.

Alistair Carmichael, our Home Affairs Spokesperson said:

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How should Lib Dems deal with the Conservative fear-mongering?

Chris Skidmore (a Vice-Chair of the Conservatives 2018-2019) has called out his own party for heading in a  “very dark” direction in demonising those who call for a rapid reduction in CO2 emission as a way of justifying the watering-down of net zero targets.  

Softening net zero targets might well encourage people to think they need not worry about climate change and can ignore the extremes of “Just stop Oil”. It’s a million miles from the responsible course of addressing climate change — and implicitly saying “we have a problem, and a plan to address it.

There are echoes of the same mentality in some of Suella Braverman’s comments before the reshuffle. Talking of refugees arriving by boat in exaggerated language can make them sound like an “invasion” force, stoking people’s anxiety so that they are “grateful” when the government “protects” us. Talking of homelessness as a “lifestyle choice” gives a way to say we can ignore it — when we should be embarrassed at what it implies for failed housing and mental health policy.

The snag is that stirring up anxiety and then presenting oneself as the solution speaks to some very raw emotions and makes it hard to think. In 2019 it seemed inconceivable that a government that had just been found to have illegally prorogued parliament could win a General Election, but the slogan of “Get Brexit Done” spoke to who wanted Brexit and who were fed up with it and in a way that closed down debate. It was very hard to create any discussion of what the promised Brexit would look like, or how it sat with public opinion.

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Where next for Gaza?

It is now 5 weeks since the terrible massacre perpetrated by Hamas on mostly civilians in Israel, killing over 1400 people, Jews & Arabs, Israelis, Thai & Nepalese and kidnapping more than 240 into the tunnel network inside Gaza as hostages. This was a savage attack, with people killed in front of their children, in front of their parents. Old people, young people, even babies, were not spared. Nothing that has happened since should hide that simple brutality of the actions of Hamas. This went beyond a raid into Israel, it was a pogrom against civilians whose only crime was that they lived in Israel. 

It also broke an existing ceasefire between Hamas and Israel that had allowed a slow (far too slow) relaxation of the blockade of Gaza, that allowed an increasing number of Gazan residents to work inside Israel & provide for their families. There was also the tantalising possibility of an agreement with Saudi Arabia that would have included measures to ease the plight of Palestinians which has now gone because of Hamas’s actions.

However, none of this is an excuse for the actions of the Israel Government. By acting in the way they have done, the Netanyahu Government has lost the goodwill from around the world it got after the October 7th.

It has allowed itself to be drawn into a fight on Hamas’s terms.  It has been culpable in the killing of thousands of Gazans of all ages, many of whom were not members or even supporters of Hamas. It has invaded Gaza with no clear idea of how to extract itself after the fighting ends. It has embroiled the Israeli Military in a war it cannot win however many Hamas militants (and Palestinian civilians) it kills, simply provided a ready supply of new volunteers bent on revenge for the death of their loved ones.  It has made the release of the hostages taken into Gaza more difficult. It has made finding a resolution to the wider conflict and providing long term security for Israel far more complicated.

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Lib Dem Peer Brian Cotter has died

Sad news this morning. Brian Cotter, who was made a Lib Dem Peer in 2006 after representing Weston Super Mare in the Commons between 1997 and 2005, has died.

The Lib Dem Whips Office made the announcement on Twitter:

It is with sadness that we have to let you know that our own Brian Cotter died peacefully earlier today surrounded by his wife and children. Brian was a proud small business man who spent 8 years in the Commons and 17 in the Lords. He will be missed. Condolences to his family.

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LISTEN: Jim Wallace on his long career

Jim Wallace, who as Scottish Lib Dem Leader served as Deputy First Minister from 1999-2005 and then as Advocate General for Scotland during the Westminster Coalition years, has done an interview for the BBC Podlitical podcast, available here on BBC Sounds or wherever else you get your podcasts.

The programme synopsis says:

The Lib Dem peer and former Deputy First Minister shares thoughts from his career. Lord Wallace talks to Lucy Whyte and Kirsten Campbell about the early days of Scottish Parliament, his conversations with First Minister Donald Dewar and Prime Minister Tony Blair, and his role as acting First Minister. Wallace shares his thoughts Brexit and Independence, as well as the UK Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition of 2010, and why he thinks political parties have a problem with offering things that aren’t possible.

It’s a great listen.  Jim talks about how he was willing to walk away during the 1999 coalition negotiations, but that the deal was done due to him and Donald Dewar’s willingness to work to find a way through the difficulties. He describes receiving a phone call from Tony Blair in the middle of it all, and hearing Donald Dewar in the next room speaking to our Paddy on the phone.

He talks of his pride at introducing Freedom of Information legislation, something that had long been a passion, and his delight when the Act was praised.

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UPDATED: Tory reshuffle: goodbye, Suella Braverman, hello, David Cameron?

It’s all kicked off at Number 10, so we’ll be updating this as events unfold…

In one of the more unexpected moments of this increasingly flaky Government, Rishi Sunak has moved James Cleverly from the Foreign Office to the Home Office after just fourteen months, and replaced him with David Cameron, giving him a peerage in order to do so. It would be fair to say that the responses have been mixed…

Beth Rigby, Sky News’ Political Editor, notes:

Layla Moran has pointed out that:

Bringing back a scandal-hit, unelected former Prime Minister who has been criticising Sunak’s government at every turn has the

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Suella Braverman goes… at long last…

The news that Rishi Sunak had a backbone transplant over the weekend and has finally sacked his Home Secretary is likely to put a small spring in the step of many this morning.

It seemed inevitable that something had to give. No Prime Minister can allow such open challenge to his authority to carry on for long, especially in a Party where the virtues of loyalty and discipline have been so clearly forgotten. And, in attacking the police in such a ham-fisted, confrontational manner, Suella Braverman had broken a number of the rules of politics, incited rioting at the Cenotaph and …

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Israel-Gaza conflict: Liberal Democrats call for immediate bilateral ceasefire

Leader of the Liberal Democrats Ed Davey and Lib Dem Foreign Affairs spokesperson Layla Moran MP have today called for an immediate bilateral ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza conflict.

The purpose of such a ceasefire, which must apply to both Israel and Hamas, would be to get aid in, get the hostages out, and provide space to realise a political solution, ultimately with two states and a lasting peace.

Ed Davey has set out this proposal in full here.

Liberal Democrat Foreign Affairs spokesperson Layla Moran MP commented:

A lasting peace and a two-state solution is the only way to guarantee

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Last chance to stand in Scottish internal elections

Nominations close tomorrow night for candidates for office bearer positions and the party committees, along with representatives to Federal Party Committees and the Federal Council to serve for the next two years.

It’s a challenging time for the Scottish Party. The people elected at this set of elections will need to progress the 150 Rising project, to almost double our councillors at the next set of council elections in 2027, as well as get us through the General Election and prepare for the Scottish Parliament elections in 2026.

Nominations close tomorrow night (13th November) at midnight. Any member of the Scottish Party can stand and the nominations process is all online, so there is no need to get anyone to sign bits of paper.

All the information you need to stand is here.  It includes the posts available, job descriptions, how to stand and get nominations and the rules about campaigning.

It is absolutely not too late to throw your hat into the ring. If you want people to nominate you, if you ask in any of the online spaces, such as the Liberal Democrats Scotland Facebook group, you are very likely to find people willing to help you.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Anti-semitism

Anti–Semitism is rocketing worldwide. In London, the Metropolitan Police, reported that that incidents of anti-Semitism increased 1,350 percent since October 7. Similar figures are emerging from the US, France, Germany, the Netherlands….

This is because the Israeli government has become a symbol violent oppression and far-right intolerance based on religion.

And the sad fact is, too many people conflate Judaism with Israel. They fail to recognise that there are a sizeable number of Jews in Israel who do not support Netanyahu and there is an even larger number of Jews outside Israel who do not support his Likud-led coalition.

However, a large number of people instead wrongly believe that the actions of the Netanyahu government are a mirror reflection of the views of worldwide Jewry. This is partly because Israel was created as a homeland for Jews and all Jews have the right to citizenship in Israel.

In a way the global wave of anti-Semitism is in the interests of Netanyahu. It reinforces the view of Jews as victims and allows him to claim that he is fighting for all Jews. Otherwise, why would people be attacking innocent Jews outside Israel?

It is complicated and sad. For many years – while successive Israeli governments struggled to establish the Jewish state against the odds – the link between Israel and Judaism worked in favour of world Jewry. Now that Israel is seen by many as oppressive and undemocratic it works against then.

West Bank

Spare a thought for the West Bank. In fact, focus on it, because if you fail to do so, it may well erupt into an even more violent conflagration then what we are seeing in Gaza.

The West Bank, unlike Gaza, is not under the control of Hamas. It is nominally controlled by the Palestinian Authority which in turn is controlled by the remnants of the PLO. In reality, however, security on the West Bank is in the hands of the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) which means Israel controls the West Bank.

Eighty-two percent of the West Bank’s residents are Palestinians. The remainder are Jews. They are illegal because since 1967 the international community has refused to recognise Israeli sovereignty over the territory and branded most of the Jewish settlements as illegal.

There are an estimated 600,000 Jewish settlers in the West Bank. Most of them are Orthodox Jews who claim the land as part of God’s contract with the Jews.

As the number of Illegal settlers have increased so have demands that the West Bank (Judea and Samaria of the Old Testament) be formally annexed. To help matters along, some settlers have taken to attacking Palestinian settlements, driving them out of their homes and, in some cases, murdering them.

Some members of the current Israeli cabinet are, in fact, illegal West Bank settlers. One of them, Itamar Ben-Gvir, is responsible for security issues. He has been seen in recent weeks handing out guns to settlers on the West Bank.

Since 7 October the settlers have increased their attacks on West Bank Palestinians partly because they see an opportunity and partly to pre-empt retribution by West Bank Palestinians in support for their countrymen trapped in Gaza. According to the UN, nearly 200 Palestinians have been killed in settler attacks since 7 October. The UN adds that the Israeli army has done nothing to stop the attacks.

There is little that West Bank Palestinians can do in response. There have been demonstrations in Ramallah, Hebron or Nablus, but security is tightly controlled by the Palestinian Authority working in conjunction with the Israeli military. For the moment they have a lid on the security situation. But then, they thought they had a lid on Gaza.

USA Republican Party

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Yesterday’s ugly scenes show why the Conservatives must be beaten

I so wish that the focus of yesterday’s marches had been on comforting all those affected by the horrific events in Israel and Gaza and calling for more international effort to find a lasting peace in that region. It’s really important that a relatively small number of ultra right wingers don’t detract from that.

However, the right wing thuggery can’t be ignored, especially as they were emboldened by Suella Braverman’s comments this week.

Those right wing extremists don’t reflect our country. They may think they have the blessing of the Home Secretary but most British people find them utterly repulsive. If Sunak can’t fire Braverman for inciting them because he’s too scared of the right wing extremists in his own party, I despair.

And if he can’t fire her before Wednesday’s Supreme Court judgement on Rwanda flights could give her an excuse to resign in high dudgeon, then he really needs to have a word with himself.

The consequences of such divisive tactics on our society are there to see and I don’t think the majority of reasonable people in the country will want to see more of that on our streets.

The suffering of our fellow human beings in Gaza prompted hundreds of thousands of people to take to the streets of London, overwhelmingly in peace and solidarity. I have been on such marches before. It does worry me though, that people continue to chant things that people will read as anti-semitic or to appear to display support for an organisation who murdered, kidnapped and tortured. Why do that? I’ve always thought that if a marginalised group tells you that the use of a particular phrase is a specific attack on them, you need to find a more inclusive way to make your point and this is no different.

Words really matter. Most people on these marches just want to see peace and an end to human suffering. These events always attract a few people who have more extreme views than that and expressions of hate need to be dealt with, wherever they come from.

Lib Dem Home Affairs spokesperson Alistair Carmichael spoke of the importance of minding our language.

The horrific cases of antisemitism and support for terrorist organisations that we have seen on the streets of London today need to be totally condemned. It has no place in our society.

Likewise, the violence of the far-right mob earlier and their disrespect of Armistice Day must be utterly condemned. These people are a disgrace towards everything that they claim to represent.

The police need to be commended for their professional and brave work in dealing with these most challenging of circumstances. We should all extend them our gratitude for keeping us safe.

Those who have participated in this hate and disorder should feel the full force of the law.

Many communities are rightfully anxious and fearful right now. We should all be mindful of our words and actions so that we do not stoke further divisions and tensions.

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Observations of an Expat: A sad tale

The story of Israel is possibly the world’s oldest and saddest. It stretches back Millennia to God’s land deal with Abraham and encompasses wars, slavery, a long and bitter diaspora, pogroms, and the Holocaust.

And that is just the Jewish side. On the Palestinian side (or if you prefer, Arab), there is colonialism, wars, displacement, refugee camps, unemployment, and their own diaspora.

But let’s start with the Jews and relatively modern history. In 1917 the British government issued the Balfour Declaration which set aside the British mandate of Palestine (as it was then known) as a homeland for the Jews. But there was a proviso, Jewish rights were not to be realised at the expense of the resident Arabs.

This obvious contradiction led to The Israelis fighting against the British and Palestinian Arabs for the right to create their own state.  In 1948 they succeeded and emerged as underdog heroes; rising from centuries of discrimination and the horrors of the Holocaust. However, the tactics they used to achieve their political success was terrorism.

When the infant Jewish state defeated the Arab armies in 1948, 1967, 1956 and 1973 its leaders morphed from terrorists to soldiers. Now they were heroes carving a modern successful nation out of an arid wilderness.

But there are two sides to every story. If the Jews are the most oppressed people in 3,500 years of history then the Palestinian Arabs are possibly the most oppressed in modern history.

It is true that in 1947 they were offered a separate Palestinian state in an UN-partitioned Palestine. With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight they should have accepted the deal. But at the time they saw no reason to give up the land that their families had lived on for centuries. The Jews said their God had given them the land. But the Jewish God was not their God.

In fact, it was not the Palestinians themselves who fought in 1948. It was mainly the Arab states with the help of poorly equipped and ill-trained Palestinians. The Arab states were more interested in an anti-colonial war to stop the establishment of a Western outpost in the Middle East than they were in upholding Palestinian rights.

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10 November 2023 – today’s press releases

  • GDP Stats: On the no growth path
  • 72 billion litres of sewage pumped into the River Thames in just two years
  • Welsh Lib Dem leader honours the fallen

GDP Stats: On the no growth path

Responding to the latest ONS figures which shows the UK economy stopped growing between July and September, Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesperson Sarah Olney MP said:

Conservative chaos has delivered a hammer blow to our economy leading us down a no growth path.

Hard-working families shouldn’t be paying the price of the Conservative party’s economic vandalism.

The Autumn Statement should deliver a proper plan to grow the economy, fix our NHS and help with the cost-of-living crisis. Instead we’re set to see more of this Government’s failed approach.

72 billion litres of sewage pumped into the River Thames in just two years

  • Liberal Democrats uncover “horrifying revelations” from Information Request to Thames Water
  • Twickenham site suffers from almost 1 billion litres of sewage in just one day
  • Local Liberal Democrat MP slams “environmental crime” and demands Thames Water is “ripped up” to form new company

The River Thames has suffered from at least 72 billion litres of sewage discharges since 2020, the Liberal Democrats have discovered.

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ALDC By-election report, 9th November

There were 6 principal by-elections this week. Lib Dem candidates stood in 5 of the vacancies. There were some brilliant results to celebrate, including some excellent holds in Wales.

If you want to sharpen your campaigning skills to help you win upcoming local elections and by-elections in your area there are still discounted places available at ALDC Kickstart in November. Book your place here

The only place to start with the by-election roundup is Powys Council in Wales where we were defending two seats in Crickhowell with Cwmdu & Tretower. The two vacancies were caused by the resignation of Independent councillors who were elected as Liberal Democrats in 2022.

We achieved a superb result. Newly elected Lib Dem councillors Claire Hall and Chloe Masefield won with a combined 63.1% of the vote – increasing the overall Lib Dem vote share despite a greater number of parties standing.

Congratulations to Claire, Chloe and everyone who worked so hard in Powys to achieve two brilliant holds.

Powys Council, Crickhowell with Cwmdu & Tretower
Liberal Democrats (Claire Hall and Chloe Masefield): 1356 (63.1%, +3.1%)
Conservatives: 563 (26.4%, -13.6%)
Independent: 116 (5.4%, new)
Labour: 92 (4.3%, new)
Independent: 18 (0.8%, new)

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9 November 2023 – today’s press releases

  • Sharp rise in mortgage arrears should “ring alarm bells in Downing Street”
  • NHS waiting lists: Sunak’s pledge lies in tatters
  • Welsh Lib Dem leader gives her reason for voting for Senedd Gaza ceasefire motion
  • Braverman: What on earth will it take for Sunak to do the right thing?

Sharp rise in mortgage arrears should “ring alarm bells in Downing Street”

There has been an 18% rise in homeowners in mortgage arrears over the past year, the latest UK Finance figures have revealed.

The data shows there were 87,930 homeowners in mortgage arrears worth at least 2.5% of their outstanding loan in the third quarter of 2023, up from 74,420 in the same period last year.

The Liberal Democrats said the figures show families are facing “mortgage misery” and reiterated their calls for a Mortgage Protection Fund, with targeted support to prevent people losing their home, funded through scrapping tax cuts for the banks.

Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesperson Sarah Olney MP said:

This sharp rise in mortgage arrears should be ringing alarm bells in Downing Street.

The Conservative Party crashed the economy and is now forcing ordinary families to pick up the tab.

Homeowners facing mortgage misery should be offered a rescue scheme, with targeted support to protect those most at risk of losing their home. It is the least this government could do after the economic damage they have caused.

NHS waiting lists: Sunak’s pledge lies in tatters

NHS waiting lists have reached a new record high of 7.8 million. It means that the waiting lists have grown every month since Rishi Sunak made his pledge in January that they would fall.

Liberal Democrat Health and Social Care spokesperson, Daisy Cooper MP said:

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Suella Braverman must go

My first reaction – several years ago – to one of Suella Braverman’s pronouncements was one of exasperation and incredulity. But it was accompanied by a conviction that not even right wing Tories were going to support her extreme views. I was, of course, wrong.

She not only proposes cruel treatment for vulnerable, underprivileged and desperate people who are either citizens or who want to be one, but she is now doing so from one of the most powerful positions in Government. She wants rough sleepers to die in the cold (it is apparently a lifestyle choice), she wants to imprison people escaping war in unsafe conditions, or alternatively to deport them to a country where they have absolutely no connections, she wants to prevent legal forms of protest that we so value in a democracy, she wants us all to lose the protection of the European Court of Rights, and so it goes on and on …

And now some think she is deliberately courting trouble by posting a highly controversial article in the Times, attacking the Met Police, without getting it signed-off by No. 10. Whatever her motivation, her Cabinet position is now at risk, but that could leave her free to challenge the leadership.

Ed Davey has come out with some very strong words about her:

Suella Braverman is not fit to hold the office of Home Secretary. She divides communities with reckless abandon, playing a personal political game with no care for the consequences suffered by the people she is supposed to protect.

She is the most dangerous and divisive Home Secretary of modern times. This country will be safer without her in post.

This is a situation of the Prime Minister’s own making. He appointed her knowing she had previously broken the Ministerial Code yet he was too scared to stand up to her.

What more will it take for the Prime Minister to do the right thing? It is time for us to move past her pathetic failings and for her to go. Rishi Sunak needs to find his backbone and sack her.

Other Lib Dems have added their thoughts.

Here is Alistair Carmichael in the Commons.

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