Category Archives: Polls

Mark Pack

What the public thinks should happen in a hung Parliament

By Mark Pack | Tue 4th May 2010 - 12:35 pm

Only one in five voters think David Cameron should try to form a minority government if his party is the largest but short of an overall majority after Thursday’s general election.

The finding comes in a YouGov poll for The Sun which finds that 37% think in such circumstances Cameron should try to form a “grand coalition” with Labour and Lib Dems and a further 24% think he should “seek to work with the Liberal Democrats”. Only 20% said he should “seek to form a minority government, without doing any deals with any other party”.

Although The Sun has previously …

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Stephen Tall

Pollwatch Day 28 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 26-28% in today’s polls

By Stephen Tall | Mon 3rd May 2010 - 10:05 pm

Thre polls published tonight:

    YouGov in the Sun … CON 35%(+1) LAB 28% (nc) LIB DEM 28% (-1)
    Opinium in the Express … CON 33%(-1), LAB 28%(+3), LIB DEM 27%(-1)
    ComRes for the Indy/ITV … CON 37%(-1), LAB 29%(+1), LIB DEM 26%(+1)

And one other poll by a non-BPC polling companies, with figures as follows:

    RNB Research … CON 37%, LAB 28%, LIB DEM 26%

Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ shows:

    CON 35%, LAB 27%, LIB DEM 28%

With the Tories just 7-8% ahead of the Lib Dems and Labour, David Cameron will be pinning his hopes on his party out-performing their rivals …

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Mark Pack

When is a late surge not a late surge? (aka how Reuters gets the news wrong)

By Mark Pack | Mon 3rd May 2010 - 4:08 pm

When all the changes in party support in an opinion poll are within the margin of error. Pretty obvious stuff you’d have thought, but take a look at the Reuters headline for its new marginal seats poll:

Poll shows late surge for Conservatives in swing seats

Now look at the actual vote shares:

Conservative 36% (+1)
Labour 36% (-2)
Lib Dem 20% (-1)

In other words, all the changes are within the margin of error. This is not a poll result that justifies the “surge” headline, even though curiously Reuters does rightly describe the Lib Dem share as “steady” which is a fair description for …

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Mark Pack

When up is down and down is up

By Mark Pack | Mon 3rd May 2010 - 12:20 pm

A quick explanation for people who are new to pouring over the details of polls and, as several people have commented, are confused by the conflicting figures given for whether a party is up or down and if so by how much in a poll.

Different polling companies use different methods, so comparing – say – an ICM poll with a previous BPIX poll isn’t comparing like with like. Therefore when looking at a poll it makes sense to calculate up/down figures based on the previous poll by that polling firm.

However, polling firms often do work for more than one media …

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Stephen Tall

Pollwatch Day 27 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 28/29% in today’s polls, as Tory support slips

By Stephen Tall | Sun 2nd May 2010 - 11:20 pm

Two polls published tonight:

    YouGov in the Sun … CON 34%(-1) LAB 28% (+1) LIB DEM 29% (+1)
    ICM in the Guardian … CON 33%(-3), LAB 28%(-1), LIB DEM 28%(+1)

So, after the excitement of today’s rightwing press salivating at the inevitable Tory election victory to come, we’re back to where we were at the end of last week … the Tories at c.33%, and Lib Dems and Labour tussling it out for second place on 28-29%, firmly back in hung parliament territory.

Of course, these results may be quirks, and none of us knows how far to trust polls published over the …

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Stephen Tall

The YouGov poll which shows Nick Clegg won the third TV debate

By Stephen Tall | Sun 2nd May 2010 - 7:20 pm

An interesting snippet from today’s Sunday Times reporting the latest YouGov tracker poll conducted on Friday and Saturday among nearly 1,500 voters showed that “Nick Clegg narrowly won the debate overall”.

You won’t find the figures in the paper’s report (and I can’t find them on the YouGov site) but the Times’s Samuel Coates reports that Clegg was judged to have most impressed by 35% of voters, compared with 32% for David Cameron.

Separately the paper also reports that Clegg continues to enjoy high personal popularity ratings:

A YouGov poll of nearly 1,500 people shows that the Liberal Democrat’s

…

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Mark Pack

Express omits to report who is second in its own opinion poll

By Mark Pack | Sun 2nd May 2010 - 6:43 pm

You’d have a hard time working out from this report in today’s Sunday Express that it’s the Liberal Democrats who are in second place in the latest Angus Reid poll the newspaper has commissioned.

If you try really hard you can just about work out that it’s likely that is the case (given the poll share figure given for Labour) but then there’s the talk of the Conservatives being “12 points ahead”. True, they are 12 points ahead of Labour, but no mention is made of the much smaller lead over the Lib Dems (6 points).

And a boring, boring pedant …

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Stephen Tall

Pollwatch Day 26 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 25-29% in today’s polls

By Stephen Tall | Sat 1st May 2010 - 11:15 pm

Four polls published tonight:

    YouGov in the S.Times … CON 35%(+1), LAB 27%(-1), LIB DEM 28%(nc)
    ComRes/ for the S.Mirror/S.Independent … CON 38%(+2), LAB 28%(-1), LIB DEM 25%(-1)
    ICM in the S.Telegraph … CON 36%(+3), LAB 29%(+1), LIB DEM 27%(-3)
    Angus Reid in the S.Express … CON 35%(+2), LAB 23%(nc), LIB DEM 29%(-1)

These are an improved set of polls for the Tories, all showing a slight boost, perhaps helped by the favourable media coverage of David Cameron in the final televised debate. The Lib Dems have dropped slightly in three polls, and seem consistently to be in the high 20%s, ahead of Labour …

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Stephen Tall

Pollwatch Day 25 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 28/32% in today’s polls. And are we headed for 120 MPs?

By Stephen Tall | Sat 1st May 2010 - 12:20 am

Two polls published tonight:

    Harris in the Daily Mail … CON 33%(+1), LAB 24%(-1), LDEM 32%(+2)
    YouGov in the Sun … CON 34%(nc), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 28%(nc)

No significant changes there, all within the margin of error; though certainly encouraging to see the Lib Dems still polling at c.30% of the vote, at least level with Labour, and potentially even gaining support. Let’s see what the weekend polls, which will also include public reaction to the final debate, have in store.

Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ is resolutely stuck at Con 34%, Lib Dem 29%, Lab 27%. Just five days’ …

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Stephen Tall

Final debate polls put Cameron ahead, but floating voters choose Clegg

By Stephen Tall | Fri 30th April 2010 - 1:00 am

All the post-debate polls are in, and four out of five are giving David Cameron a win, with Clegg tied in first place in one, and in second place in three. Brown is last in all but one:

    YouGov: Cameron 41%, Clegg 32%, Brown 25%.
    ComRes: Cameron 35%, Clegg 33%, Brown 26%.
    Populus: Cameron 38%, Clegg 38%, Brown 25%.
    ICM: Cameron 35%, Clegg 27%, Brown 29%.
    Angus Reid: Cameron 36%, Clegg 30%, Brown 23%.

Well, I guess seeing as Clegg was judged to have won the first two debates it was only fair that Cameron should have a consolation prize 🙂

For me, it was a score draw, and I do wonder how far the narrow win for Cameron in the post-debate polls reflects more settled party preferences. As Andrew Rawnsley tweeted:

Early post-debate polls (DC 1, NC 2, GB 3) reflecting party positions in national polls. Minds being made up?

It was certainly a better, more convincing performance from Cameron than in his first (disastrous) performance, or his second improved debate. Brown was less good tonight than in earlier debates – relatively speaking, I mean – less empathetic, more dogmatic, still just as tired.

Clegg was under attack far more than in the first debate, but withstood the pressure well; his continuing calls for parties to work together better resonates with the public far more than it does with cynical politicos and hacks.

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Mark Pack

Well fancy that! Two other poll results The Sun paid for but didn’t report

By Mark Pack | Thu 29th April 2010 - 12:47 pm

There’s this:

All the main parties have promised to cut the government’s deficit after the election. Which party do you think is being the most honest about what spending cuts they would make to deliver this?

Liberal Democrats 29%
Conservatives 26%
Labour 21%

… and then there’s this:

Gordon Brown was challenged on Wednesday morning by Gillian Duffy, a 65-year-old voter in Rochdale. Mrs Duffy complained about taxation for pensioners, immigration from eastern Europe and students’ tuition fees. At the end of the televised encounter, Mr Brown told her ‘it was very nice to meet you’. But when he got into his car, Mr

…

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Mark Pack

Majority of public say voting system is unfair

By Mark Pack | Thu 29th April 2010 - 9:20 am

So reports PoliticsHome:

A majority of the public believe that the current voting system is unfair, and that it is now time to start thinking seriously about alternatives, according to new PoliticsHome research.

57% of voters said that the current system of voting in the current system is either ‘very unfair’ or ‘generally unfair’, compared to 39% who think it is fair…

In a further indication that voters are dissatisfied with the current electoral system, voters believe that it is more important for an electoral system to reflect the proportion of votes cast nationwide than to produce a clear winner.

51% of

…

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Stephen Tall

Pollwatch Day 23 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 26-31% in today’s polls

By Stephen Tall | Wed 28th April 2010 - 11:55 pm

Three national opinion polls published tonight:

    YouGov in the Sun … CON 34%(+1), LAB 27%(-2), LIB DEM 31%(+3)
    Harris in Metro … CON 32%(-2), LAB 25%(-1), LIB DEM 30%(+1)
    ComRes for ITV/ITN … CON 36%(+3), LAB 29%(nc), LDEM 26%(-3)

The ComRes poll, though the last officially to be published, was the first I heard about (under embargo) – it’s fair to say, I had a slight sinking feeling in my stomach: was this the end of the Lib Dem surge? Well, it may be: but significantly two other polls show the party still at 30% or more. We should remember all the flucutations reported …

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Mark Pack

Exclusive poll: newspaper hostility makes voters more likely to back Lib Dems

By Mark Pack | Wed 28th April 2010 - 11:24 am

A poll carried out exclusively for Lib Dem Voice shows that opposition from the Daily Mail, The Sun and Daily Telegraph to the Liberal Democrats actually makes people more likely to vote for the party.

Asked the impact on their voting intention of those papers opposing Nick Clegg becoming Prime Minister, 15% said it made them more likely to vote Liberal Democrat and only 4% said it made them less likely, making for a net +11% saying they are more likely to vote Liberal Democrat.

Of the rest, 19% would vote Liberal Democrat regardless, 35% would not vote Liberal Democrat anyway and …

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Stephen Tall

Pollwatch Day 22 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 28-29% in today’s polls

By Stephen Tall | Tue 27th April 2010 - 11:30 pm

Three polls published tonight:

    Populus in The Times … CON 36%(+4), LAB 27%(-1), LIB DEM 28%(-3)
    YouGov in The Sun … CON 33%(nc), LAB 29%(+1), LIB DEM 28%(-1)
    ComRes for ITV/The Independent … CON 33%(+1), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 29%(-2)

The big shift is in the Populus survey – however, the last time they polled was at the peak of the Lib Dems’ post-debate surge, so the result is pretty much in line with other polls showing the Lib Dems hovering around the 30% mark – albeit the Tories are at their highest point since before Nick Clegg’s rise to fame.

I suggested in

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Mark Pack

This is why the posters, avatars, status updates and more matter

By Mark Pack | Tue 27th April 2010 - 9:20 am

From The Guardian’s report on its latest ICM poll (which puts the Lib Dems in second once again*):

There is also evidence that the bandwagon effect is helping the pick up votes: 31% of all voters, including 26% of Labour supporters, say knowing that other people are switching to the Lib Dems encourages them to do the same.

That’s one of the reasons why posters in windows, avatars on Twitter, group membership on Facebook and so on all matter: they help persuade more people to vote Liberal Democrat.

* Although the spread from first place to third is within the margin …

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Stephen Tall

Pollwatch Day 21 #GE2010 – Lib Dems in second place, at 28-31%, in today’s polls

By Stephen Tall | Mon 26th April 2010 - 11:40 pm

Four polls published tonight, as follows:

    ICM in the Guardian … CON 33%(-2), LAB 28%(+2), LIB DEM 30%(-1)
    Opinium in the Express … CON 34%(+2), LAB 25%(-1), LIB DEM 28%(-1)
    ComRes for ITV/Independent … CON 32%(-2), LAB 28%(nc), LIB DEM 31%(+2)
    YouGov in the Sun … CON 33%(-1), LAB 28%(nc), LIB DEM 29%(-1)

All movement is within the margin of error, and the degree of stability in the polls is striking: the Tories are at 32-34%, Lib Dems at 28-31% and Labour at 25-28%. Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ shows the Lib Dems edging up:

    CON 33%, LAB 27%, LIB DEM 30%

It …

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Stephen Tall

Pollwatch Day 20 #GE2010 – Lib Dems back at 30%

By Stephen Tall | Sun 25th April 2010 - 10:00 pm

Just one poll published tonight (so far at any rate):

    YouGov in the Sun … CON 34%(-1), LAB 28%(+1), LIB DEM 30%(+2)

So much for the charge – led by its sister-paper – that the Lib Dem bubble had burst. The poll suggests the party is continuing to hover at the 30% mark, and continuing to push Labour into third place.

There was incidentally one other poll published we omitted to report last night: BPIX (the firm which refuses to comply with polling industry standards) showed CON 34%(+3), LAB 26%(-2), LIB DEM 30%(-2).

It does seems as if the party is heading into …

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Mark Pack

The problem for Labour and the Tories in attacking Lib Dem policies…

By Mark Pack | Sun 25th April 2010 - 7:26 pm

From today’s YouGov poll in the Sunday Times (one of the questions which I don’t think was reported in the paper, though I’ve not seen a hard copy):

The other parties have been targeting Liberal Democrat policies in recent days. What is your view of this?

It shows the parties are doing their job – the Liberal Democrats need to be scrutinised: 34%
It shows the other parties are rattled: 53%

This one also looks to have been unreported:

Newspapers have questioned Nick Clegg’s personal financial dealings. What is your view on the basis of what you know about this?

He has serious questions to …

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Stephen Tall

Big increase in voters trusting Nick & Vince to steer British economy

By Stephen Tall | Sun 25th April 2010 - 12:05 am

Some interesting details from tonight’s ComRes poll, as picked out by Andrew Hawkins, the firm’s chairman:

    · Overall it looks like the Lib Dems had a very modest boost from Thursday night although Gordon Brown’s performance has clearly boosted his party’s rating
    · Turnout looks set to be really quite high – 66% say ‘absolutely certain’ to vote, the highest registered of this campaign
    · The number of people who are ‘absolutely certain’ to vote but who are undecided

…

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Stephen Tall

Pollwatch Day 19 #GE2010 – Lib Dem surge still strong (except for News of the World)

By Stephen Tall | Sat 24th April 2010 - 6:55 pm

Four polls for the Sunday papers have already been published – they are as follows:

    ComRes for Sunday Mirror / Independent on Sunday … CON 34%(-1), LAB 28%(+3), LIB DEM 29%(+2)
    ICM in the Sunday Telegraph … CON 35%(+2), LAB 26%(-2), LIB DEM 31%(+1)
    Ipsos MORI in the News of the World … CON 36%(+4), LAB 30%(-2), LIB DEM 23%(-9)
    YouGov in the Sunday Times … CON 35%(+1), LAB 27%(-2), LIB DEM 29%(nc)

There is also a OnePoll for the People showing the Tories and Lib Dems tied on 32%, with Labour way back in 23%; however, OnePoll, it should be noted, are a new …

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Stephen Tall

Pollwatch Days 17-18 #GE2010 – Lib Dems on 29% in today’s polls

By Stephen Tall | Sat 24th April 2010 - 12:02 am

Two new polls tonight:

    Harris in the Mail … CON 34%(+3), LAB 26%(nc), LIB DEM 29%(-1)
    YouGov in the Sun … CON 34%(nc), LAB 29%(nc), LIB DEM 29%(+1)

This makes it one full week during which the Lib Dem surge has been maintained, with the party polling consistently in the high-20%s right up to the mid-30%s. The Tories appear to be stuck in the low 30%s, while Labour is consistently pegged in the mid-to-high 20%s. Amusingly the Mail has headlined its poll – showing a 5% Tory lead over the Lib Dems – as follows: Cameron regaining the ground he lost to …

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Mark Pack

YouGov admit debate polling started whilst Nick Clegg was still speaking

By Mark Pack | Fri 23rd April 2010 - 7:55 pm

YouGov have come in for a fair amount of flack online following last night’s instant debate poll for The Sun. Some of the criticism has been wrong or misplaced. Yes, one of their senior figures has Labour roots. But then one has Conservative roots  and other staff support the Liberal Democrats. They’ve even done polling for the Lib Dems in the past.

But – and it’s an important but – that was not the whole story. In amongst all the chaff were claims that YouGov’s polling started before the debate had actually finished and that it was collecting people’s verdicts on …

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Mark Pack

The good news for Clegg in the poll details

By Mark Pack | Fri 23rd April 2010 - 4:22 pm

Overall the pattern of the debate polls is one of a close result: 3 polls make Clegg the winner, 2 make Cameron the winner. The political impact is more contentious: edging it in the majority of polls would, in any other circumstances be a triumph for Clegg – but was it enough given what happened one week before? Similarly, failing to clearly win the debate in other circumstances would be a disaster for Cameron (remember all those polls and betting odds in advance of the debates saying Cameron would win?). But after last week, perhaps this was good enough?

Well, there’s …

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Mark Pack

Are ITV the unluckiest commissioner of opinion polls?

By Mark Pack | Thu 22nd April 2010 - 9:50 am

In the run-up to the 2005 general election, there was some excitement as a rolling poll commissioned by ITV from Populus showed the Conservatives slipping to a result even worse than 1997. However, there was a sharp (5 point) recovery in the final pre-election day poll from Populus, which was a normal non-rolling poll.

Picking over the polling after the election, the explanation looked to be one aberrant sample on one day but which, due to the workings of a rolling poll, ‘infected’ the poll results over a longer period of time. It was only with the final pre-election poll, based …

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Stephen Tall

Pollwatch Day 16 #GE2010 – Lib Dems remain in 1st or 2nd place with 27-32% in today’s polls

By Stephen Tall | Wed 21st April 2010 - 11:55 pm

Five new polls reported tonight – and, yet again, the Lib Dem surge is holding up:

    Ipsos MORI for Reuters … CON 32%(-3), LAB 28%(-2), LIB DEM 32%(+11)
    Harris in Metro … CON 31%(-5), LAB 26%(-1), LIB DEM 30%(+7)
    YouGov in the Sun … CON 33%(+2), LAB 27%(+1), LIB DEM 31%(-3)
    TNS-BRMB … CON 34%(-2), LAB 29%(-4), LIB DEM 30%(+8)
    ComRes for the Independent/ITV … CON 35%(nc), LAB 25%(-1), LIB DEM 27%(+1)

Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ now shows the Lib Dems firmly in second place, ahead of Labour, and catching up the Tories:

    CON 33%, LAB 27%, LIB DEM 29%

Two questions will …

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Stephen Tall

Pollwatch Day 15 #GE2010 – Lib Dems still in 1st or 2nd place with 26-34% in today’s polls

By Stephen Tall | Tue 20th April 2010 - 11:45 pm

Four new polls reported tonight – and the Lib Dem surge is holding up:

    Populus in The Times … CON 32%(-4), LAB 28%(-5), LIB DEM 31%(+10)
    Angus Reid for PoliticalBetting … CON 32%(nc), LAB 23%(-1), LIB DEM 33%(+1)
    YouGov in The Sun … CON 31%(-2), LAB 26%(-1), LIB DEM 34%(+3)
    ComRes for the Independent/ITV … CON 35%(+3), LAB 26%(-2), LIB DEM 26%(-2)

The Lib Dems are above 30% in three of the four polls; only ComRes has us below 30%, though as Anthony Wells notes: “ComRes’s fieldwork was done on Sunday and Monday, so this poll is actually a day older than the Angus …

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Stephen Tall

Pollwatch Day 14 #GE2010 – Lib Dems in 1st or 2nd place with 28-32% in today’s polls

By Stephen Tall | Mon 19th April 2010 - 10:40 pm

Five new polls reported tonight – and it’s still resoundingly good news for the Lib Dems with the surge holding steady:

    YouGov in the Sun … CON 33(+1), LAB 27%(+1), LIB DEM 31%(-2)
    Opinium in the Express … CON 32%(-7), LAB 26%(-5), LIB DEM 29%(+12)
    ComRes for the Independent/ITV … CON 32%(+1), LAB 28%(+1), LIB DEM 28%(-1)
    Angus Reid for PoliticalBetting.com … CON 32%(-6), LAB 24%(-4), LIB DEM 32%(+10)
    ICM in the Guardian … CON 33%(-1), LAB 28%(-1), LIB DEM 30%(+3)

Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ is still playing catch-up with the last five days’ quite extraordinary polls, and is showing the …

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Stephen Tall

YouGov ‘push-polling’ mystery deepens

By Stephen Tall | Mon 19th April 2010 - 7:45 pm

Earlier today Lib Dem Voice published a post asking the question, Are YouGov and Murdoch ‘push-polling’ for the Tories? This followed internet reports that the online pollster had been posing deliberately leading questions designed not simply to test public opinion, but to lead it.

Liberal Conspiracy picked up the story and put the question direct to Peter Kellner of YouGov, whose elliptical reply stated:

As with all agencies, we ask all kinds of questions for all kinds of clients; some public, some private. For purposes of testing theories, messages or policies we will often test statements phrased one way

…

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Stephen Tall

Are YouGov and Murdoch ‘push-polling’ for the Tories?

By Stephen Tall | Mon 19th April 2010 - 2:30 pm

‘Push-polls’, for those unfamiliar with the term, are a political campaigning technique “in which an individual or organization attempts to influence or alter the view of respondents under the guise of conducting a poll” (Wikipedia).*

And it looks like Rupert Murdoch’s Sun newspaper someone [EDIT 20/4/2010 – see Update below) has been paying internet polling firm YouGov to undertake some ‘push-polling’ against the Lib Dems, following the surge in support for Nick Clegg’s party after last week’s televised debate.

Former British ambassador Craig Murray spotted the following comment on the PoliticalBetting.com website, and noticed its significance:

Just

…

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