Category Archives: Polls

Pollwatch Day 13 #GE2010 – YouGov puts Lib Dems in lead with 33%

By Stephen Tall | Sun 18th April 2010 - 11:50 pm

Only one new poll being reported tonight … almost not worth mentioning. Oh, alright then, it does happen to show the Lib Dems in first place, so here goes:

YouGov in the Sun … CON 32%(-1), LAB 26%(-3), LIB DEM 33%(+4)

‘poll of polls’, which is currently showing:

Also posted in General Election | 10 Comments

Poll surge continues: is this 2003 or 1974?

By Mark Pack | Sat 17th April 2010 - 8:22 pm

“I will only really believe it when I see it in print!” – so read a text message to me from one of the party’s senior campaign strategists after news started spreading about the latest poll:

BPIX/Mail on Sunday: Lib Dem 32%, Conservative 31%, Labour 28%
ComRes/Independent/Mirror: Conservative 31%, Lib Dem 29%, Labour 27%
ICM/Sunday Telegraph: Conservative 34%, Labour 29%, Lib Dem 27%
OnePoll/People: Lib Dem 33%, Conservative 27%, Labour 23%
YouGov/Sunday Times: Conservative 33%, Labour 30%, Lib Dem 29%

The YouGov poll gives Nick Clegg the eye-watering personal ratings on doing well/badly as party leader of 81% versus 9%. At the height of the Iraq …

Also posted in General Election | Tagged charles kennedy and nick clegg | 46 Comments

YouGov puts Lib Dems second, all three parties within margin of error

By Mark Pack | Fri 16th April 2010 - 10:16 pm

Time to say, “Oh sod it” to the usual rule on The Voice of not reporting individual polls on headline voting intentions:

Conservative: 33%
Liberal Democrat: 30%
Labour: 28%
Others: 9%

Fieldwork: 15-16 April.

The last time the party was this high in the polls was after Sarah Teather’s victory in the Brent East by-election, when YouGov made it C32, L31, LD30 and ICM had all three parties tied on 31%.

The next round of phone calls between party press officers and the media could be quite fun. What was that about giving the third-placed party less media coverage?

Of course, in the past poll surges have …

Also posted in General Election | Tagged brent east, sarah teather and yougov | 20 Comments

Pollwatch Day 10 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 20%, Lab 31%, Tories 38%

By Stephen Tall | Fri 16th April 2010 - 3:25 pm

Amidst all the excitement of the debate we neglected to report the latest two polls released last night:

Still no change in Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ average – but I suspect that may change in the next day or so …

Con 38% (n/c), Lab 31% (+1%), Lib Dem 20% (n/c)

It’s interesting to see the effect of the debate on public perceptions. YouGov asked how much confidence voters had …

Also posted in General Election | 5 Comments

Pollwatch Day 9 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 20%, Lab 31%, Tories 38%

By Stephen Tall | Thu 15th April 2010 - 6:30 pm

Three new polls cpublished today:

What does all this mean for Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ average? Well, there’s no change from yesterday:

Con 38% (n/c), Lab 31% (+1%), Lib Dem 20% (n/c)

So far, as Mark Pack has already blogged, the general trend for the Lib Dems is upwards – and that was before yesterday’s good publicity for the Lib Dem manifesto launch. Of course, …

Also posted in General Election | Leave a comment

The steady march of the Liberal Democrats

By Mark Pack | Thu 15th April 2010 - 4:24 pm

Here is the latest poll figure from each polling company for the Lib Dems, compared with the figure in its first poll in March (excluding those companies without a recent poll or who didn’t poll in March):

Angus Reid: 18%, 22% (+4)
BPIX: 18%, 20% (+2)
ComRes: 20%, 21% (+1)
Harris: 18%, 23% (+5)
ICM: 18%, 20% (+2)
Opinium: 16%, 17% (+1)
Populus: 21%, 21% (nc)
YouGov: 16%, 18% (+2)

And some good news from the Lib Dem – Tory marginals in the marginals poll run in today’s Telegraph:

The poll found that the Tories would pick up 74 of the 100 seats from Labour. However, they would not

…

Tagged ain't no stoppin us now and we're on the move | 1 Comment

Pollwatch Day 8 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 20%, Lab 31%, Tories 38%

By Stephen Tall | Wed 14th April 2010 - 10:25 am

Four new polls came out last night, published today:

What does all this mean for Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ average? Well, there’s an ever-so-slight narrowing of the gap between Labour and the Tories – or (looked at another way) a slight lengthening of Labour’s lead over the Lib Dems:

Con 38% (n/c),

…

Also posted in General Election | Leave a comment

Good news on turnout and engagement

By Mark Pack | Tue 13th April 2010 - 2:20 pm

Two pieces of cheery news.

First, from the latest Sunday Times/YouGov poll:

I am so disillusioned with politics that I am seriously thinking of not voting at all in the coming general election:

Agree 15%
Disagree 73%

All things considered, 15% is a pretty low figure.

Second, from a survey of 18-25 year olds:

A survey of 18-25 year-olds, commissioned by new media age and conducted by Lightspeed Research, found 46% of those aged between 18 and 21 believe increased political activity online has stimulated their interest in the election, with the figure at 41% for 22-25 year-olds…

Also posted in General Election and Online politics | Tagged turnout | 1 Comment

Tactical unwind or tactical rewind?

By Mark Pack | Tue 13th April 2010 - 1:49 pm

For a long time after David Cameron’s election to leader of the Conservative Party there was widespread talk of “tactical unwind”, that is how his changes to the Conservative Party may result in much less anti-Tory tactical voting at the next general election. It’s one of the range of reasons that many Tories quote for believing that they will do better in terms of seat numbers than the overall vote numbers suggest.

However, what’s struck me for some time is how the overall political campaigning is playing out in a way that is likely to rewind the unwind.

For example, on cutting …

Also posted in General Election and Op-eds | Tagged featured | 7 Comments

Pollwatch Days 6-7 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 20%, Lab 30%, Tories 38%

By Stephen Tall | Tue 13th April 2010 - 12:05 am

Five new polls over the last 2 days of the campaign:

After the small uptick in support registered by Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ over the weekend, today sees the Tories dropping down 1%, with Lib Dems and Labour both unchanged …

Also posted in General Election | 9 Comments

Is David Herdson right about Labour and the Lib Dems?

By Mark Pack | Sun 11th April 2010 - 11:27 pm

Over on Political Betting, David Herdson has several times made comments such as this:

Since the start of March, there have been sixty national opinion polls published and they have shown a remarkable consistency in the total share identified for Labour plus Lib Dems. When one party rises, the other tends to fall.

I’ve been intrigued by this because David certainly knows his stuff, but that’s not been my impression of the data – which has been that changes in Lib Dem support are more equally balanced between Labour and Tory than the much more lopsided position David suggests.

So I’ve done …

Tagged david herdson and politicalbetting.com | 8 Comments

LibLink: Mark Pack – It ain’t just that swing

By NewsHound | Sun 11th April 2010 - 4:50 pm

Over at The Guardian’s Comment Is Free website, LDV Co-Editor Mark Pack explains why ‘uniform national swing’ probably won’t help to predict the election result. Here’s an excerpt:

… UNS predictions based on the correct vote shares are far from perfect. In the last three general elections, UNS predicted the Conservatives would get 42 seats more than they did (1997), 15 more (2001) and 13 less (2005). For Labour UNS predicted 23 too few (1997), 10 too few (2001) and 14 too many (2005). For the Liberal Democrats it was 18 too few (1997), 5 too few (2001) and spot on

…

Also posted in LibLink | Tagged Mark Pack | Leave a comment

Pollwatch Day 5 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 20%, Lab 30%, Tories 39%

By Stephen Tall | Sun 11th April 2010 - 12:00 pm

Three new polls today:

(There is also a poll in the Mail on Sunday – but, as it’s by the dubious BPIX, we’re not giving it house-room here on LDV).

There is for the first time in this campaign a small shift in Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’, with the Tories nudging up 1%, and Lib Dems and Labour …

Also posted in General Election | 2 Comments

Sunday Mirror plunges to new low in poll “reporting”

By Mark Pack | Sun 11th April 2010 - 11:05 am

So, you commission a poll from ComRes.

It shows a Conservative lead of 7%.

Just like the previous ComRes poll.

So what headline do you put on the story?

Why “Tory lead cut to just 7 points” of course.

Take a bow, Sunday Mirror who seems to be following in the footsteps of the Daily Mirror.

Tagged comres | 1 Comment

Pollwatch Day 4 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 20%, Lab 30%, Tories 38% (still)

By Stephen Tall | Sat 10th April 2010 - 12:20 pm

(Actually Saturday is Day 5, so please pretend I remembered to set this live on Friday night as intended).

Three new polls today, all with positive news for the Lib Dems:

All moves are within the margin of error, so it would be rash to read too much into them. But that said, it’s notable that seven of the last 10 polls have shown the Lib Dems at 20% …

Also posted in General Election | Tagged nick clegg | 4 Comments

TV debates: some clues to likely political impact

By Mark Pack | Fri 9th April 2010 - 4:20 pm

The latest ICM poll for The Guardian gives some pointers:

Very high viewing figures: 29% say they will watch all three and a further 31% say they will watch one or two
Even higher viewing figures amongst older people (and older people are more likely to vote): 23% of 18-24 say they will watch all three, but this rises to 40% of the 65+
Women are less likey to watch the debates (important as Lib Dem swing voters are usually disproportionately female): 42% say they will watch none compared to 35% of men

The last point may be influenced by childcare responsibilities as …

Also posted in General Election | Tagged icm and leaders tv debate | 1 Comment

Pollwatch Day 3 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 20%, Lab 30%, Tories 38% (still)

By Stephen Tall | Thu 8th April 2010 - 11:10 pm

Just one new poll tonight:

YouGov in the Sun … CON 40% (+3%), LAB 31% (-1%), LIB DEM 18% (-1%)

All moves are, of course, within the margin of error. So, yes, it could be the Tory lead has widened. Or it might have not. That’s the joy of polls – read into them what you choose.

This latest survey hasn’t yet made it into Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’, but it’s not going to make a huge difference, I don’t think, so here’s the score as of 8th April:

Con 38% (n/c), Lab 30% (n/c), Lib Dem 20% (n/c)

Very …

Also posted in General Election | 1 Comment

Pollwatch Day 2 #ge2010 – Lib Dems at 20%, Lab 30%, Tories 38%

By Stephen Tall | Thu 8th April 2010 - 12:00 am

Three new polls tonight, and there’s good news for the Lib Dems – we’re up in all of them:

Of course, all these changes are within the +/-3% margin of error so we should be very careful about reading anything too much into these increases unless they are sustained in the coming days. Still, it’s nice to see …

Also posted in General Election | Leave a comment

LibLink: Mark Pack – Five tips to make sense of the polls

By NewsHound | Wed 7th April 2010 - 6:40 pm

Over at The Guardian’s Comment is Free website, Lib Dem Voice Co-Editor Mark Pack has some wise words of advice for those who are going to spend the next four weeks poll-watching obsessively: track trends over time, and beware random fluctuations that ‘plunge’, ‘soar’ or ‘collapse’ in a headline. Here’s rule number one:

Rule one: carrying out an opinion poll is like flipping a coin. Flip a coin 10 times. Then do it another 10 times. And again. Chances are the number of heads each time will vary. But that doesn’t mean someone’s swapped the coin for a loaded one in

…

Also posted in LibLink | Tagged Mark Pack | Leave a comment

Well fancy that! A poll finding you won’t have seen reported

By Mark Pack | Wed 7th April 2010 - 2:02 pm

I’ve commented before on some of the poll findings that papers pay for but then don’t report (all for reasons of space you understand; never because they don’t meet the desired editorial line; not at all; no way).

Here’s another one, courtesy of The Sunday Times and YouGov:

A group of 23 business leaders have written to the Daily Telegraph newspaper backing the Conservative announcement that they will shelve part of next year’s rise in National Insurance. Do you think that the business leaders are…

Speaking out in the country’s interest 18%
Speaking out in their own interest 50%
Both 22%
Don’t know 11%

Pretty …

Also posted in News | Tagged journalism and sunday times | 1 Comment

Pollwatch Day 1 #ge2010 – Lib Dems at 20%, Lab 30%, Tories 38%

By Stephen Tall | Wed 7th April 2010 - 12:10 am

Lib Dem Voice doesn’t usually obsess about polls – we round them up on a monthly basis when you can see trends, but we don’t try and read huge significance into every statistical blip. General elections, however, are different.

Like it or not, all of us who are political obsessives will be slavishly following every twist ‘n’ polling turn for the next four weeks. If we move up a single point, it will be because the public loved Steve Webb’s latest pension proposals. If we drop a point, it will be because the media has been ignoring us (again).

Ignore anyone who tries to point out the reality that polls will fluctuate, and trying to pin ups and downs on any specific campaign incidents is to imagine that the British public is paying anywhere like as close attention to politics as we are.

Caveats firmly in place? Check. So let’s get on with our poll-sessing.

Also posted in General Election | 2 Comments

Opinion poll reporting: The Times does it best, the Daily Mirror the worst

By Mark Pack | Mon 5th April 2010 - 10:20 am

It’s not been a great month for newspapers reporting their own polls. Despite the concept of newspapers accurately reporting their own polls – i.e. a story that they’ve paid for and been given the full details of – being a fairly basic standard to aim for, we’ve had such low lights as the skewed graph in the Mirror along with its over-hyped language and the Sunday Times so twisting the findings of its own poll you’d have thought there must have been two. Not to forget the attack in The Telegraph attack on that dodgy process of …

Tagged featured | 1 Comment

Opinion: Attack YouGov if you want to – but at least say who you are

By Niklas Smith | Sat 3rd April 2010 - 5:50 pm

Last week’s Daily Telegraph article attacking YouGov’s polling raises some disturbing issues about the quality of political debate as we fast approach the general election.

Firstly, the article’s authors seem to have no understanding about how polls should be conducted. They complain that the raw data in one large aggregated survey “were…‘weighted’ using an undisclosed YouGov formula which reduced the lead to sex per cent .” But all reputable pollsters know that their sample will not usually be representative of the population, for example by having too few women or too many Guardian …

Also posted in Op-eds | Tagged anthony wells, daily telegraph, peter kellner, robert winnett and yougov | 4 Comments

Pollwatch – State of the Leaders: Clegg +18%, Brown -27%, Cameron +5% (March 2010)

By Stephen Tall | Sat 3rd April 2010 - 4:45 pm

Yesterday, Pollwatch looked at the state of the parties in March; today it’s the turn of the party leaders.

As with all polls, what follows comes with caveats. Only three polling companies – YouGov, Angus RS and Mori – this past month asked questions specifically to find out the public’s views of the three main party leaders. And each asks variants on the basic question – do you think Clegg/Brown/Cameron are doing a good job – to come up with their figures, so comparison ain’t easy. But, still, we don’t indulge in polls often, so here goes …

Here, in chronological order, are the results of the four polls published in March asking the public to rate the three major party leaders:

Also posted in Op-eds | Tagged david cameron, gordon brown, nick clegg and opinion polls | 2 Comments

Pollwatch – State of the Parties: Lib Dems 19%, Labour 31%, Tories 38% (March 2010)

By Stephen Tall | Fri 2nd April 2010 - 4:45 pm

March may have 31 days, but it saw an extraordinary 39 polls conducted. So frenetic has been the activity, we at Lib Dem Voice even published a mid-month report to keep track of their findings. And despite all the hyped-up headlines – both in print and online – of minor fluctuations signifying some grand new trend which will transform the electoral arithmetic, the reality is that remarkably little changed in March.

As you can see from the full list of polls conducted in March, in chronological order of publication:

Also posted in Op-eds | Tagged opinion polls | 2 Comments

An email to the editor of the Daily Telegraph

By Mark Pack | Fri 2nd April 2010 - 8:50 am

I’m rather puzzled by the story that your paper has run questioning the use of weighting in YouGov’s polls (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7546322/YouGov-pollster-gives-Labour-an-unfair-advantage.html).

Indeed, the piece takes such a suspicious attitude towards weighting that it puts the word in inverted commas and talks about YouGov having “admitted” that it uses weightings.

My puzzlement is quite simple.

Every single political opinion poll published by The Telegraph during your time as editor has also involved weighting.

If it’s such a questionable act, why hasn’t your newspaper shopped itself first? And will you be abandoning your own practice of publishing weighted figures?

Yours,

Mark

Note: I do think there are some reasonable …

Tagged daily telegraph, journalism, will lewis and yougov | 8 Comments

Should this poll result worry us?

By Stephen Tall | Fri 26th March 2010 - 6:45 pm

Today’s BBC Daily Politics / ComRes poll asking which of the three major parties’ leadership teams is more trusted to steer the economy through the current downturn has caused a bit of a stir – it shows Labour’s duumvirate of Gordon Brown and Alastair Darling out ahead of the Tories, an about-turn on three months ago.

Here are the results:

Putting your party allegiance aside, who do you trust most to steer Britain’s economy through the current downturn?

…

Tagged economy, nick clegg, recession and vince cable | 11 Comments

Ooops! Mirror gets poll graph wrong and inflates Labour’s position

By Mark Pack | Wed 24th March 2010 - 11:03 pm

I blogged earlier today about how the Mirror bigged up a poll showing Tory support unchanged (within the margin of error) into a story of how their support was plunging.

But looking again at the story, I realise just how badly wrong their graph is.

The two key pieces of information about Labour’s rating in the poll are that:

(a) It was 30%

(b) It was 32% in the previous poll

Now look at the graph:

See what’s happened? What should be a downward Labour line has become a flat …

Tagged daily mirror and featured | 20 Comments

Those of a statistically nervous disposition should look away now

By Mark Pack | Wed 24th March 2010 - 9:44 am

A double triumph in the Mirror today: for Vince Cable and for British journalism.

For Vince Cable – congratulations on another poll putting you the most popular choice for Chancellor (32% versus 23% for Darling and 21% for Osborne).

For British journalism – take a bow at a story that uses phrases such as “plunges” and “it’s all the fault of George Osborne” when in fact the poll results are, er…, not statistically significantly different from the previous poll by that pollster. (The changes are all within the margin of error.)

Perhaps next time we’ll have a footnote, “Hey, the above …

Tagged daily mirror, journalism and vince cable | 3 Comments

Were there two YouGov polls for the Sunday Times?

By Mark Pack | Sun 21st March 2010 - 7:04 pm

I only ask, you see, because in the newspaper online I read of the unions:

Their intransigence is beginning to hurt the government’s standing, as the YouGov/Sunday Times poll shows today.

But in the full polling tables up on the The Times website I read:

Will the strikes, and the prospects of disruption for BA’s passengers, change the way you vote in the election?

Yes, it will make me less likely to vote Labour: 4%
Yes, it will make me more likely to vote Labour: 1%
No difference: 80%
Don’t know: 15%

That’s about as tepid a finding as you could get: a measly net +3%.

A …

Tagged journalism, sunday times and yougov | 3 Comments

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