Category Archives: Polls

With 15 polls already published so far in March, it’s time for a mid-month reality check on the state of the parties. Some parts of the media watch the polls with breathless excitement, investing even the smallest fluctuations with a significance well beyond what they can bear: a bad-tempered PMQs, a 24-hour Westminster Village row, an ad campaign – any and all of these are sometimes said to have affected the polls.

Well, maybe. But most poll movements are within the margin of error, so it is only looked at over a reasonable period of time that you can detect whether there has really been any significant movements between the parties. So let’s look at the polls published in March to date, in chronological order of publication, to see if we can detect any trends:

Yesterday, Pollwatch looked at the state of the parties in January; today it’s the turn of the party leaders.

As with all polls, what follows comes with caveats. Only two polling companies – YouGov and Angus RS – this past month asked questions specifically to find out the public’s views of the three main party leaders. And each asks variants on the basic question – do you think Clegg/Brown/Cameron are doing a good job – to come up with their figures, so comparison ain’t easy. But, still, we don’t indulge in polls often, so here goes …

Here, in chronological order, are the results of the three polls published in February asking for the public to rate the three major party leaders:

A total of 19 (count ’em!) polls were published during February. Now, as our readers know, LDV doesn’t cover them with the same breathless excitements as other parts of the media. Most poll movements are within the margin of error, so it is only looked at over a reasonable period of time that you can detect whether there has really been any significant movements between the parties. Well, the past few weeks has certainly shown some movement, so let’s get down to business …

Here are February’s polls in chronological order of publication:

* Con 39, Lab 30,

…

A total of 13 polls were published during January. Now, as our readers know, LDV doesn’t cover them with the same breathless excitements as other parts of the media. Most poll movements are within the margin of error, so it is only looked at over a period of time that you can detect whether there has really been any significant movements between the parties. With those caveats in place, let’s succomb to the inevitable and start poll-obsessing …

Here are January’s polls in chronological order:

After two months of poll fluctuations triggered by the ups-and-downs of party conference-dominated media coverage, November gives us an opportunity to look at the parties’ popularity, as measured by the polls, for the first time since early September.

Here, in chronological order, are the results of the 10 polls published in November:

Tories 41.0, Labour 27.0, Lib Dems 17.0 (6 Nov, YouGov)
Tories 38.0, Labour 24.0, Lib Dems 20.0 (6 Nov, Angus RS)