When up is down and down is up

A quick explanation for people who are new to pouring over the details of polls and, as several people have commented, are confused by the conflicting figures given for whether a party is up or down and if so by how much in a poll.

Different polling companies use different methods, so comparing – say – an ICM poll with a previous BPIX poll isn’t comparing like with like. Therefore when looking at a poll it makes sense to calculate up/down figures based on the previous poll by that polling firm.

However, polling firms often do work for more than one media …

Posted in Polls | Tagged , and | 4 Comments
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3 to see: Lib Dem #GE2010 campaign coverage (3/5/10)

Pushed for time, but want to keep up-to-date with how the campaign’s going? Here are today’s must-reads …

Clegg’s journey to the promised land (The Independent)
A profile of Nick Clegg’s campaign:

… when he arrives at Oxford Brookes University the hundreds of students packing the hall greet him, if not like a rock idol, with an excitement seldom, if ever, generated by a British politician in these times. The journalists squeezed into the front of the bus include two senior German correspondents urged by their offices to explain the Clegg phenomenon. … It is as if Clegg realises, at least subconsciously,

…

Posted in General Election | Leave a comment

Clegg makes bold pitch for northern working class

So reports The Times:

Nick Clegg mounted his most sustained assault on the Labour heartlands yesterday with a journey from Burnley to Redcar in which he pitched the Liberal Democrats as the party of the northern working class.

It was a bold thrust from a Westminster School old boy at the head of a party that has thrived in more prosperous parts, and he seemed to recognise the scale of the task as he made his appeal in a church in Burnley. “I understand that for some people it feels like almost a betrayal not to vote Labour but to start investing

…

Posted in General Election | Tagged , , and | 6 Comments

Blackburn Conservative leaflet stirs up controversy

The Guardian reports:

The Conservatives last night withdrew a leaflet targeted at Muslims that claimed Labour was complicit in “a whole saga of atrocities” in Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine and Lebanon.

The leaflet, published by Tories in Blackburn, where their candidate, Michael Law-Riding, is up against the justice secretary, Jack Straw, also predicted Straw would be likely to criticise Muslim beards and caps, after he asked Muslim women to remove the veil in his constituency surgeries.

It was distributed carrying the name of the Blackburn Conservative party agent…

A spokesman for the Conservatives stressed the leaflet had not been sanctioned by headquarters and later said

…

Posted in News | Tagged , , and | 6 Comments

Pollwatch Day 27 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 28/29% in today’s polls, as Tory support slips

Two polls published tonight:

    YouGov in the Sun … CON 34%(-1) LAB 28% (+1) LIB DEM 29% (+1)
    ICM in the Guardian … CON 33%(-3), LAB 28%(-1), LIB DEM 28%(+1)

So, after the excitement of today’s rightwing press salivating at the inevitable Tory election victory to come, we’re back to where we were at the end of last week … the Tories at c.33%, and Lib Dems and Labour tussling it out for second place on 28-29%, firmly back in hung parliament territory.

Of course, these results may be quirks, and none of us knows how far to trust polls published over the …

Posted in General Election and Polls | 8 Comments
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Second police investigation into publication of postal vote information

During the week Alex Foster blogged about the case of Bristol East Labour MP Kerry McCarthy who is facing a police investigation following a tweet giving voting figures from a postal vote opening.* She subsequently deleted the tweet and apologised but we await the outcome of the police investigation.

I now hear there is a second police investigation taking place, this time into a Scottish blogger who published information that was apparently supplied by the SNP based on postal vote opening in several constituencies. The post (subsequently removed) appeared on SNP Tactical Voting and made reference to three different …

Posted in Election law | Tagged and | 18 Comments

Top of the Blogs: The Golden Dozen #167

Welcome to the Golden Dozen, and our 167th weekly round-up from the Lib Dem blogosphere … Featuring the seven most popular stories according to click-throughs from the Aggregator (25th April – 1st May, 2010), together with a hand-picked quintet, normally courtesy of LibDig, you might otherwise have missed.

Don’t forget: you can now sign up to receive the Golden Dozen direct to your email inbox – just click here – ensuring you never miss out on the best of Lib Dem blogging.

As ever, let’s start with the most popular post, and work our way down:

Posted in Best of the blogs | 1 Comment

The YouGov poll which shows Nick Clegg won the third TV debate

An interesting snippet from today’s Sunday Times reporting the latest YouGov tracker poll conducted on Friday and Saturday among nearly 1,500 voters showed that “Nick Clegg narrowly won the debate overall”.

You won’t find the figures in the paper’s report (and I can’t find them on the YouGov site) but the Times’s Samuel Coates reports that Clegg was judged to have most impressed by 35% of voters, compared with 32% for David Cameron.

Separately the paper also reports that Clegg continues to enjoy high personal popularity ratings:

A YouGov poll of nearly 1,500 people shows that the Liberal Democrat’s

…

Posted in Polls | Tagged , and | 11 Comments

Express omits to report who is second in its own opinion poll

You’d have a hard time working out from this report in today’s Sunday Express that it’s the Liberal Democrats who are in second place in the latest Angus Reid poll the newspaper has commissioned.

If you try really hard you can just about work out that it’s likely that is the case (given the poll share figure given for Labour) but then there’s the talk of the Conservatives being “12 points ahead”. True, they are 12 points ahead of Labour, but no mention is made of the much smaller lead over the Lib Dems (6 points).

And a boring, boring pedant …

Posted in Polls | Tagged and | 9 Comments

Philippa Stroud: the disappearing Conservative candidate

This morning The Observer ran a piece detailing the less than savoury attitude towards homosexuality of Philippa Stroud, Conservative candidate for Sutton & Cheam and head of the influential Conservative think-tank Centre for Social Justice:

A high-flying prospective Conservative MP, credited with shaping many of the party’s social policies, founded a church that tried to “cure” homosexuals by driving out their “demons” through prayer…

Abi, a teenage girl with transsexual issues, was sent to the church by her parents, who were evangelical Christians. “Convinced I was demonically possessed, my parents made the decision to move to Bedford, because of this woman

…

Posted in Online politics | Tagged , , , and | 195 Comments

Tory tax priorities: spend £6 billion on the wealthiest 0.8% in the UK

Small wonder that Tory leader David Cameron publicly rowed back on his inheritaance tax cut for millionaires in last week’s televised debate – Lib Dem research released today shows the Tories’ promise would:

  • cost £6bn over the course of the next Parliament;
  • is aimed at the wealthiest 0.8% of estates in the UK; and
  • would benefit 3,000 of the wealthiest estates in the country every year by almost £250,000

As Vince Cable points out:

At a time when the gap between the richest and poorest is so great, it beggars belief that David Cameron wants to give the

…

Posted in General Election | Tagged , , and | 5 Comments

“A once in a generation chance for real change”

That’s the message from Nick Clegg to voters in an interview in today’s Independent on Sunday:

Nick Clegg makes a final appeal to voters today to seize the “once-in-a-generation chance” for real change to Britain’s unbalanced voting system by backing the Liberal Democrats on Thursday. … Mr Clegg, trying to cast the final week of campaigning as a two-horse race between his party and the Tories, claims that Gordon Brown has “written himself out of the script of change” and that the Labour Party is in a fight for its very existence. …

In a direct pitch to voters, he

…

Posted in General Election | 2 Comments

LibLink: HIV – heterosexuals get it too

Chris Ward, a Liberal Democrat councillor in Guildford, makes his Comment is Free début with a piece tackling Julian Lewis’s irresponsible assumptions that AIDS is a solely gay disease.

In every year since 1999, most new diagnoses of HIV have been through heterosexual contact. Although many point out that a good chunk of these infections are believed to have been contracted abroad, statistically meaning that in the UK you are still less likely to be infected if you engage in heterosexual activities, the numbers are still very chilling. It proves convincingly that many heterosexuals do not consider HIV to be

…

Posted in LibLink | Tagged , and | 4 Comments

Don’t wake up on May 7th and say ‘I wish I’d done more’

So says Chris Huhne:

Posted in General Election | Tagged | 4 Comments

“Let’s take on the tabloids”

That’s the message from the two online campaigning groups Avaaz and 38 Degrees. One of their emails says:

The tabloid press is doing all it can to skew the election result by bullying and scaring voters. The political editor of The Sun has been given clear instructions from Rupert Murdoch: “It is my job to see that Cameron f****g well gets into Downing Street”. Murdoch and his tabloid press friends think they’ve got the right to decide who governs us.

Together we can stand up for our right to choose who we vote for and expose this cynical manipulation. Let’s shame the tabloids, and …

Posted in News | Tagged , , and | 8 Comments

“When the public booed Liam Fox for raising hung parliament concerns” – FT

In case you missed this week’s Question Time, here’s how the FT reported it:

Last night’s Question Time ended on an extraordinary note. The public are more in favour of a hung parliament than the Tories care to admit. But I never expected an audience to heckle and boo Liam Fox when he warned of an indecisive election result triggering a run on sterling…

This should be a salutary lesson to Cameron’s team. People seem to like the idea of politicians working together. The worm in the election debate shot up when Clegg spoke about a cross-party co-operation to tackle the deficit.

…

Posted in News | Tagged and | 7 Comments

Scotland on Sunday is third paper to endorse Lib Dems

Today’s Scotland on Sunday becomes the third newspaper, alongside The Guardian and The Observer, to endorse the Liberal Democrats:

Make no mistake that this time around a vote for the Liberal Democrats is not a protest vote, one that can be cast casually because it will have little impact on the eventual outcome, but is a vote that could have extremely far-reaching consequences. It could increase the chances of a hung parliament, and there have been dire warnings about what that would mean for the economy. But those warnings have been exposed as barely credible. Yes, if our credit rating

…

Posted in News | Tagged | 4 Comments

The Observer endorses the Liberal Democrats

Following on from The Guardian‘s endorsement, The Observer becomes the second newspaper to back the LibDems:

The vital context for this election is the twin crises in our economy and our politics. On both issues most credit accrues to the Liberal Democrats. Their Treasury spokesman Vince Cable was prescient in warning of an unsustainable debt bubble; Nick Clegg pushed for greater openness about expenses long before the scandal erupted.

The Lib Dems have in recent years developed a habit of getting things right. They were first of the big three to embrace environmentalism, first to kick back against the assault on civil

…

Posted in General Election | Tagged , and | 5 Comments

Daily View: the human poster special

Following our election special poster and virtual poster editions, time to round off the campaign with the human poster:

I've recently been diagnosed with Cleggmania and I'm loving it

Posted in Daily View | 1 Comment

Pollwatch Day 26 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 25-29% in today’s polls

Four polls published tonight:

    YouGov in the S.Times … CON 35%(+1), LAB 27%(-1), LIB DEM 28%(nc)
    ComRes/ for the S.Mirror/S.Independent … CON 38%(+2), LAB 28%(-1), LIB DEM 25%(-1)
    ICM in the S.Telegraph … CON 36%(+3), LAB 29%(+1), LIB DEM 27%(-3)
    Angus Reid in the S.Express … CON 35%(+2), LAB 23%(nc), LIB DEM 29%(-1)

These are an improved set of polls for the Tories, all showing a slight boost, perhaps helped by the favourable media coverage of David Cameron in the final televised debate. The Lib Dems have dropped slightly in three polls, and seem consistently to be in the high 20%s, ahead of Labour …

Posted in Polls | 15 Comments

Clegg in the (Lib Dem-supporting) Guardian: “We have taken Labour’s place in UK politics”

Today’s Guardian carries an in-depth interview with Nick Clegg (it’s labelled ‘Exclusive’, which seems a rather optimistic boast during an election campaign when the Lib Dem leader gives interviews every day).

Much of what he says will be familiar to readers of his pamphlet, The Liberal Moment, in which Nick made clear that the Tories are our opponents, Labour our rivals. But it may come as a pleasurable surprise for those progressive voters still wavering between Labour and the Lib Dems.

Here are some of Clegg’s quotes:

On the Tories:

What is striking is despite all the blather from Cameron

…

Posted in General Election | Tagged | 10 Comments

LDV doesn’t do statporn, but if we did (April ‘10)

… We’d say a big thank you to the 114,614 ‘absolute unique visitors’* who read Liberal Democrat Voice in April.

That’s DOUBLE our March 2010 figure of c.57,000, and we are up some 270% on the equivalent figure for April ’09 … anyone would think there was an election on.

This brings our absolute unique visitor readership for the last year to date (1 May 2009 – 30 April 2010) to 421,146, over 67% higher than the equivalent figure for 2008-09 of 251,110.

The 5 top-read stories during the month were:

1. The flow diagram which shows you who …

Posted in Site news | Tagged | Leave a comment

Opinion: Yes we can!

Abolition of the unelected House of Lords?

No more has-been Ministers and Bishops in Parliament without YOUR say so?

A truly fair voting system, where you get to choose between several candidates from each party?

Where you can put them in order (with the BNP last!).

A Government which takes the environmental crisis far more seriously than we have seen so far?

A Government which will get rid of Trident?

A Government whose respect for education is ‘bred in the bone’?

All this is possible NEXT WEEK!

If … just one in three current Labour supporters switch to the Liberal Democrats.

Now 1 in 3 is a lot. Maybe …

Posted in General Election and Op-eds | 14 Comments

Happy birthday Iain

Any political activist or their offspring who is unlucky enough to be born in April or early May is going to find that their birthday most years is subsumed by election campaigns, even if it’s a special one with a zero in it.

Today Iain Smith, Liberal Democrat MSP for NE Fife, turns 50. Instead of being feted with champagne and cake, he is out and about campaigning to re-elect Ming Campbell, or maybe even Willie Rennie in Dunfermline and West Fife.

While we’re sure that Iain would much rather that the election disrupted his birthday than the Test Match series, we …

Posted in News | Tagged | 2 Comments

Over £6,000 raised online for Evan Harris

Regular readers of  my posts about online politics will know my scepticism of the extent to which online fundraising can work in the UK on the same scale as it does in the US (e.g. because there’s a different attitude towards supporting causes by giving money rather than time in the US and because in the UK campaigns, courtesy of their parties, usual start with a significant donor lists rather than having to create ones from scratch).

However, what it certainly can do is to catch a moment of enthusiasm and to make it easy to do that which would otherwise …

Posted in Online politics | Tagged , and | 2 Comments

Why I am voting Lib Dem after 52 years supporting Labour

Today the Voice received the following email from a voter in Bristol, which we want to share with our readers:

I have always voted Labour (for 52 years), not blindly but considering the situation carefully over the years. But this time, I am voting Lib Dem, because they are a breath of fresh air compared to the others.

My local contact has been refreshing, both in the literature coming through my letterbox and in the media. There is an elememt of positiveness and hope in the message of the Lib Dems, yes times will be hard. But I do not

…

Posted in General Election | 10 Comments

What does Vince Cable do on Hounslow High Street?

The answer to that, and a fair few other questions, is to be found in the interview conducted by ShortList with Vince Cable. Here’s a sample:

What’s your relationship like with your opposite numbers?
It’s perfectly cordial. There’s no personal animosity. We’re not close, but if I meet George Osborne in corridor I’ll say hello. It’s pleasantries – no nastiness.

Who do you prefer: Gordon Brown or David Cameron?
Well, I don’t prefer either of them. They’re both very disappointing in differing ways. Brown’s whole reputation was based upon economic competence, yet we’ve had the mother of all busts. Cameron has charm, but where’s

…

Posted in News | Tagged | Leave a comment

Lib Dem Flashmobs nationwide

Just a few weeks ago we brought you the news of the unofficial Lib Dem Facebook group that was growing by 1,000 members an hour.

Now its members are enthusiastically promoting a series of flashmobs. There’s been one scheduled for London for some time, but I know many of us discounted going to that on the simple horror of getting to London on a bank holiday, whilst we should be shoving leaflets through letterboxes in our various provincial locations.

The prospect of a series of nationwide flashmobs, however, makes attendance just a little easier, no? Here’s the …

Posted in Events | Tagged , , and | 21 Comments

Clegg wins the ‘Mumsnet vote’

Back in January, Nick Clegg took part in an online chat with the readers of Mumsnet. It seems to have paid off, according to today’s Times:

The Liberal Democrats have won the Mumsnet vote, according to a poll for the parenthood website.

Nick Clegg was supported by 43 per cent of members of the network, compared with 26 per cent supporting Gordon Brown and 22 per cent David Cameron. Five per cent did not know whom to support.

The poll of 1,000 Mumsnet users — who have been wooed assiduously during the general election campiagn — found that 40 per cent

…

Posted in General Election | 1 Comment

LibLink: Want to know who Nick Clegg’s hero is?

Nick Clegg – who clearly isn’t campaigning hard enough, apparently having time to spare to read literature! – has the following to say about which avant-garde writer C.20th dramatist and writer:

His appeal lies in his directness – the sparse, unembellished prose that can make his meticulous stage directions unexpected. He leaves you with a sense that you knew what he meant, even if explaining it back would leave you lost for words. Direct and disturbing – it is impossible to grow tired of X.

Who is X? Find out here.

Posted in LibLink | 2 Comments
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