Over at the Mail on Sunday, everyone’s fave Lib Dem (including the readers of Iain Dale’s Diary), has published his predictions for the year to come. As the Mail puts it, “He was right about 2008, so what does he think will happen next year?” You can read it in full here, but here’s an excerpt to tempt you:
… Pain will be concentrated on those whose businesses have gone to the wall, those with insecure jobs and those with excessively large mortgages and other debts. There is a danger of a big gulf opening up in society between those who are not touched by the recession and those who are seriously damaged by it.
The Government is getting credit for taking action, belatedly, but it must not throw around taxpayers’ money carelessly; ultimately we all pay in higher taxes or inflation or both. That is why the temporary VAT cut was a bad idea – it gave the impression that £12billion of revenue could be tossed away to pay for a Christmas binge.
That is why we also have to worry about Ministers waving a chequebook around when failing companies come visiting. It is easy to sympathise with those in the car and car component industry appealing for government help. But if cars, then why not cement or chemicals, or shops for that matter? Are Woolworths’ workers any less deserving? Governments simply cannot go down the road of propping up every industry in trouble. …
A better idea is carefully targeted public investment that creates a long-term asset for the taxpayer, generates employment and, hopefully, does something useful such as improving the environment. In America, President-elect Obama has shifted the balance of argument in favour of governments acting decisively rather than watching the crisis unfold. His ‘green New Deal’ has the right flavour and we should aim to do something similar here. There is plenty of scope for investing in the overcrowded rail system and alleviating the dreadful shortage of affordable housing for families on average incomes.
The absolutely central task for the New Year is restoring normal bank lending.
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