Our place to talk – an independent website for supporters of the Liberal Democrat party in the UK.

The most-read independent website by and for Lib Dem supporters. Not paid for by trade unions or millionaires.

Advert

Category Archives: Polls

ConHome pushes case for Vince Cable as Lib Dem leader. It’s enough to make you wonder why…

By Stephen Tall | Sat 22nd September 2012 - 9:30 am

You’ve gotta love ConservativeHome. No, really. This morning Tim Montgomerie reports a deliciously mischief-making poll from YouGov, commissioned by the Lord Ashcroft-backed site, comparing the standing of Nick Clegg, Vince Cable and the Liberal Democrats in general.

It won’t surprise anyone to learn that Vince Cable performs better than Nick Clegg in all the measures of leadership qualities asked about. (You can see the results in the graph at the foot of this piece.) This leads Tim to conclude: ‘If the Liberal Democrats are looking for a leader who can increase their electoral competitiveness these are powerful numbers.’

Call me …

Continue reading »

Also posted in Op-eds | Tagged ConservativeHome, nick clegg, Polls, tim montgomerie, vince cable and yougov | 11 Comments

ComRes poll: Vince leadership would boost Lib Dem fortunes

By Stephen Tall | Mon 3rd September 2012 - 10:02 pm

It’s not often that polling companies ask how alternative Lib Dem leaders would impact the party’s popularity — in fact, I’m struggling to recall a single example — but ComRes has asked what difference Vince Cable leading the party would have on its fortunes. Here’s the result:

Two findings of note:

Continue reading »

Also posted in News | Tagged comres, nick clegg, stephen tall and vince cable | 12 Comments

What the public thinks of… Cameron & Clegg for ditching Lords reform & boundary changes & of the Lib Dems in Coalition

By Stephen Tall | Mon 20th August 2012 - 7:55 pm

Here’s four intriguing findings from a ComRes poll for the Mirror and Independent released yesterday and conducted 15th-16 August…

By 34%-29% public thinks Cameron was WRONG to abandon House of Lords reform

Q: Do you agree or disagree that David Cameron was right to abandon the attempt to make changes to the House of Lords?

Interestingly 21% of Conservative voters disagreed with their party leader’s decision. Also interesting: the views of Labour and Lib Dem voters on this question were near-identical, disagreeing with David Cameron’s decision …

Continue reading »

Tagged comres | 6 Comments

Three intriguing opinion poll results that made me go, “Hmm, really?”

By Stephen Tall | Wed 1st August 2012 - 2:15 pm

Looking through some of YouGov’s recent poll results (as you do on a summer’s evening during the Olympics), a trio of responses struck me as, well, slightly bizarre. See what you think…

Lib Dem voters LEAST LIKELY to think Britain is best at cricket, MOST LIKELY to think we’re best at cycling

This may simply be a reflection that ‘Britain’ does not play cricket. Or perhaps just a subjective viewpoint: after all, England is currently ranked the best test cricket team in the world (though fourth in one-day internationals); while …

Continue reading »

Tagged jimmy carr, sport, tax, tax avoidance, tax evasion, transport and yougov | 8 Comments

The graph which shows how many Tory, Labour and LibDem voters support House of Lords reform

By Stephen Tall | Sat 21st July 2012 - 8:45 am

The London Evening Standard reported this week a new poll under the headline Even Lib-Dems say Lords reform is not a priority. Buried two-thirds of the way down, however, was this interesting data:

Continue reading »

Also posted in News | Tagged constitutional reform, featured, house of lords and tom brake | 18 Comments

Coalition partners: sink or swim together?

By Mark Pack | Tue 22nd May 2012 - 11:50 am

The idea that Liberal Democrat and Conservative political fortunes are tied together comes in two forms. The basic – that with both being in government, the public’s overall view of the government (and in particular its economic record) will heavily determine its view of both parties come the next election. Sink or swim together then. Then there is version which adds an asymmetric twist. Namely that if the public views the coalition as a failure both parties will sink together, but if the public rates the coalition as a success, being the smaller of the two parties means the Liberal Democrats won’t necessarily get their share of the credit.

What does the polling data show?

Continue reading »

Tagged featured | 22 Comments

Professor John Curtice: ‘Labour cannot afford simply to ignore the Liberal Democrats’

By The Voice | Mon 21st May 2012 - 1:24 pm

On Juncture, the website of the Institute of for Public Policy Research, psephologist Professor John Curtice provides some very interesting data which suggests Labour would do well to keep talking to the Liberal Democrats:

…the hung parliament brought about by the 2010 election was no accident. It was a consequence of long-term changes in pattern of party support that mean it is now persistently more difficult for either Labour or the Conservatives to win an overall majority. Meanwhile, although the current review of parliamentary boundaries will not deliver the Conservatives quite the

…

Continue reading »

Tagged labour party and liberal democrats | 43 Comments

‘Brand Clegg’ continues to out-poll ‘Brand Miliband’: what it means for the Lib Dems

By Stephen Tall | Tue 1st May 2012 - 9:15 am

It’s a harsh reality that ‘Nick Clegg’ has become an easy punchline for many comedians. Nick can perhaps draw some comfort from the truth universally acknowledged that it’s better to be joked about than never to be joked about at all.

But he can draw greater comfort from some of the polling evidence showing him doing better than Ed Miliband, even though the Lib Dems’ ratings significantly trail Labour’s. The Independent’s Matt Chorley noticed this little-noticed phenomenon last week:

Most, though not all, months the Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror/ComRes poll has asked voters whether they agreed or disagreed with these statements

…

Continue reading »

Also posted in Op-eds | Tagged david cameron, ed miliband, featured and nick clegg | 42 Comments

Poll shows Labour’s vote up but Livingstone’s vote down

By Mark Pack | Sat 28th April 2012 - 1:15 pm

When phone polling was first introduced in the UK it attracted flak over its accuracy (least remembered about those ASL polls the better), but also gained popularity through both its lower costs compared to the then dominant face to face polling and also its greater flexibility. The same pattern has been seen again with the spread of internet polling the UK. Just as face to face polling used to be the gold standard and phone polling the upstarts, now phone polling is the gold standard and internet polling the upstarts.

The merits or otherwise of YouGov have been much debated elsewhere …

Continue reading »

Also posted in London | Tagged ken livingstone and survation | 6 Comments

Only 3% swing to Tories in key Con/Lib Dem marginals

By Mark Pack | Mon 26th September 2011 - 8:55 am

The detailed polling by Lord Ashcroft published today on ConservativeHome brings some encouraging news for the Liberal Democrats. In a set of key marginals held by the Conservatives and where the Liberal Democrats were second in 2010, there has only been a modest swing to the Conservatives since May 2010.

In the eight seats polled, the Conservative Party has a lead of 8% compared to an actual lead in May 2010 of 2%. This swing of 3% is much smaller than national opinion polls show. The vote share figures are:

Conservative 39% (-2% on May 2010)
Liberal Democrat 31% (-8%)
Labour 19% (+6%)

Con lead …

Continue reading »

Also posted in News | Tagged ConservativeHome, featured and lord ashcroft | 11 Comments

Polling the Lib Dems: the good, the bad, and the inbetween

By Stephen Tall | Tue 20th September 2011 - 10:25 am

‘Less anger, but less clarity’ is how UK Polling Report’s Anthony Wells characterises the latest YouGov polling looking at the public’s attitudes to the Lib Dems. It’s interesting to read through the full data, available here, especially as the responses are directly comparable with a year ago, before the Lib Dems’ U-turn on tuition fees sent the party spiralling downwards in the polls.

The bad news

Nick Clegg’s popularity has taken a hit: from a net positive of +8% a year ago, to a net negative of -29% today. Worth noting, however, that this is primarily due to Nick’s toxicity with Labour supporters, with whom he has a rating of an astonishing -79%! Both Lib Dem (+51%) and Tory (+17%) supporters have net positive views of the Lib Dem leader.
There is greater opposition to the Coalition than a year ago. In September 2010, 43% supported it, while 46% opposed it (net -3%): today the split is 34%/57% (net -13%). Interestingly, among the group identified as ‘lost Lib Dem voters’ — ie, those who voted for the party in 2010 but no longer would — 29% support the Coalition, while 63% oppose it.

Continue reading »

Also posted in Op-eds | 22 Comments

Explaining Cameron’s Coalition: politics as seen through the eyes of MORI polls

By Mark Pack | Wed 3rd August 2011 - 10:24 am

Explaining Cameron’s Coalition is the latest in the series of general election analysis by MORI’s Robert Worcester and Roger Mortimore, this time joined by two other authors. The book is therefore very much the tale of the 2005-2010 Parliament and subsequent general election seen through the eyes of MORI’s opinion polling, with an often pungent analysis which certainly fits Robert Worcester’s happiness to point out when he got predictions right and others got them wrong.

Though there is a smattering of references to polling results from other firms, the great strength of the MORI data is that many of the …

Continue reading »

Also posted in Books | Tagged david cameron, gordon brown, mark gill, paul baines, robert worcester, roger mortimore and tony blair | 2 Comments

So, why do you like Vince Cable?

By Mark Pack | Fri 20th May 2011 - 6:49 am

Two findings jumped out at me from YouGov’s recent poll of Liberal Democrat members, parts of which Stephen Tall covered last week.

One is the similarity in many of the findings between YouGov’s poll and the Liberal Democrat Voice surveys of party members, a similarity which we’ve found before. That’s good news – and reassuring too, given how often our surveys are now quoted by the media as being ‘what Lib Dems think’.

The other is that it means the YouGov poll mirrors both our own findings and my own experience talking to Lib Dem members in many different …

Continue reading »

Also posted in LDV Members poll | Tagged featured, vince cable and yougov | 13 Comments

Political Communication in Britain: the latest 2010 election book

By Mark Pack | Thu 19th May 2011 - 8:44 am

Political Communication in Britain, edited by Dominic Wring, Roger Mortimore and Simon Atkinson, joins a long list of books already published on the 2010 general election. As with others it also faces the tough task of finding a niche between the burgeoning coverage of politics in the media, especially online, and the revitalised Nuffield general election series.

In its favour, Political Communication in Britain brings together a strong cast of journalists and politicians who were active participants in the election, with six of the nineteen chapters coming from insiders such as Sky’s Adam Boulton, the Labour Party’s Greg …

Continue reading »

Also posted in Books and Online politics | Tagged adam boulton, chris rennard, dominic wring, greg cook, ivor gaber, roger mortimore and simon atkinson | Leave a comment

Do Lib Dem members think the Coalition will collapse early? And what the public thinks about Nick Clegg…

By Stephen Tall | Thu 12th May 2011 - 9:08 am

Channel 4 News has conducted an interesting YouGov poll surveying former and current Lib Dem members about their views on the Coalition. Their political editor Gary Gibbon gives the skinny on his blog:

We have a YouGov poll, taken from 396 Lib Dem members and 118 former members, on the programme tonight. It found that 52% of (396) members sampled thought the coalition wouldn’t run the full five years, though 63% thought it should. The poll suggests 35% think Nick Clegg shouldn’t lead the party into the next election (against 45% saying he should) – worth remembering he only won

…

Continue reading »

Also posted in Op-eds | Tagged channel 4 news, david cameron, ed miliband, gary gibbon and nick clegg | 14 Comments

Pollwatch – State of the Leaders: Clegg -30%, Cameron -8%, Miliband -11% (May 2011)

By Stephen Tall | Wed 4th May 2011 - 1:55 pm

Yesterday, Pollwatch looked at the current state of the parties; today it’s the turn of the party leaders, Messrs Clegg, Cameron and Miliband.

As with all polls, what follows comes with caveats. Four of the polling companies – YouGov, Ipsos-Mori, ComRes and Angus Reid – ask questions specifically to find out the public’s views of the party leaders. And each asks variants on the basic question – do you think Clegg/Cameron/Miliband are doing a good job – to come up with their figures, so comparison ain’t easy. For that reason, I’m taking a 3-month rolling average which isn’t very statistically ‘pure’, …

Continue reading »

7 Comments

Pollwatch – State of the Parties: Lib Dems 11%, Labour 40%, Tories 36% (May 2011)

By Stephen Tall | Tue 3rd May 2011 - 3:35 pm

A total of 24 polls were published during April. Now, as our readers know, LDV doesn’t cover them with the same breathless excitements as other parts of the media. Most poll movements are within the margin of error, so it is only looked at over a period of time that you can detect whether there has really been any significant movements between the parties. With those caveats in place, let’s succomb to the inevitable and start poll-obsessing…

Here are the April averages for the parties across the six polling companies which conducted surveys:

Con 31%, Lab 42%, Lib Dem 11%

…

Continue reading »

13 Comments

A reason to be sceptical of what the public tells opinion pollsters

By Mark Pack | Thu 14th April 2011 - 8:55 am

Much can be learnt from opinion polls, but a reminder of why not all results should be taken at face value is this:

If there were local council elections in your area on May 5th, how likely would you be to vote in them, where 0 means you will definitely not vote, and 10 means you definitely will vote?

10 – will definitely vote: 52%

This poll is not unusual in showing more people saying they will certainly vote than seems credible – and polls before previous elections (i.e. where we know the actual subsequent turnout) have often shown the number of …

Continue reading »

Tagged turnout and yougov | 3 Comments

Pollwatch – State of the Leaders: Clegg -25%, Cameron -6%, Miliband -10% (April 2011)

By Stephen Tall | Tue 5th April 2011 - 8:00 am

Yesterday, Pollwatch looked at the current state of the parties; today it’s the turn of the party leaders, Messrs Clegg, Cameron and Miliband.

As with all polls, what follows comes with caveats. Five of the polling companies – YouGov, Ipsos-Mori, ComRes, ICM and Angus Reid – ask questions specifically to find out the public’s views of the party leaders. And each asks variants on the basic question – do you think Clegg/Cameron are doing a good job – to come up with their figures, so comparison ain’t easy. For that reason, I’m taking a 3-month rolling average which isn’t very statistically …

Continue reading »

Tagged david cameron, ed miliband, nick clegg and pollwatch | 8 Comments

Pollwatch – State of the Parties: Lib Dems 11%, Labour 40%, Tories 36% (April 2011)

By Stephen Tall | Mon 4th April 2011 - 8:00 am

Well, it’s been a while since last the Voice rounded-up the polls — but with Scottish/Welsh/local elections just weeks away, it’s time to dust down our spreadsheets and take a look at the current states of the parties.

A total of 35 polls were published during March. Now, as our readers know, LDV doesn’t cover them with the same breathless excitements as other parts of the media. Most poll movements are within the margin of error, so it is only looked at over a period of time that you can detect whether there has really been any significant movements between the …

Continue reading »

Also posted in Local government, Scotland and Wales | Tagged pollwatch | 18 Comments

Who likes which party? What MORI’s data reveals

By Mark Pack | Sun 27th March 2011 - 8:55 am

The pollsters MORI have recently re-released some of their polling data from January and the question of whether or not people like a party paints a very different picture from the usual voting intention figures.

Overall it shows the Conservatives the least liked party, Labour (despite its voting intention poll ratings at the moment) only marginally in the positive and the Liberal Democrats in the negatives, but with still a very healthy chunk of the population liking the party.

For the Conservatives and Labour these figures reinforce comments often made about them – that the detoxification of the Conservative brand never …

Continue reading »

Tagged mori | 15 Comments

LDV readers prefer “Senate” as name for elected second chamber

By Helen Duffett | Wed 9th March 2011 - 1:15 pm

Last week we asked Lib Dem Voice readers what an elected second chamber should be called, following Nick Clegg’s answer in the House of Commons:

The cross-party Committee, which I chair, has been considering proposals for a wholly or mainly elected second Chamber. The Government will publish a draft Bill shortly, which will then be subject to pre-legislative scrutiny. The Government hope that that will be carried out by a Joint Committee of both Houses.

Our readers’ poll results are as follows:

Continue reading »

Tagged featured | 15 Comments

Poll: What should an elected second chamber be called?

By Helen Duffett | Thu 3rd March 2011 - 11:55 am

Nick Clegg said this week that the Government will shortly unveil its plans for reforming the House of Lords.

Answering questions in the Commons on Tuesday, Clegg said:

The cross-party Committee, which I chair, has been considering proposals for a wholly or mainly elected second Chamber. The Government will publish a draft Bill shortly, which will then be subject to pre-legislative scrutiny. The Government hope that that will be carried out by a Joint Committee of both Houses.

It’s very likely that the second chamber will be renamed, to reflect the constitutional changes.

Upper Houses around the world have a wide variety …

Continue reading »

Tagged electoral reform, featured, house of lords and nick clegg | 39 Comments

Those Oldham East and Saddleworth polls: what do they mean?

By Stephen Tall | Sun 9th January 2011 - 2:15 pm

We reported last night the results of the three opinion polls published ahead of the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election this Thursday. Let’s take a look now at the only two questions that matter when reading these polls…

1. Will the opinion polls prove accurate?

Opinion polls in by-elections have a notoriously patchy record — unsurprisingly, as the pollsters are unable to refine their techniques over time and measure their snapshots against actual results as they are able to with their general election predictions. For example, pre-by-election polls in Glasgow East (2008) and Blaenau Gwent (2006) showed the wrong winners.

They …

Continue reading »

Also posted in Parliamentary by-elections | Tagged featured and oldham east and saddleworth | 94 Comments

By-election polls: Labour 17% ahead – or 1%

By Mark Pack | Sat 8th January 2011 - 9:13 pm

Two polls out tonight (so far – there may be a third) on the Oldham by-election:

ICM for Mail on Sunday: Labour 44%, Lib Dem 27%, Conservative 18%
Populus for Lord Ashcroft / Sunday Telegraph: Labour 46%, Lib Dem 29%, Conservative 15%

UPDATE: New pollster Survation (who are applying for membership of the trade body, the British Polling Council) makes it much closer with Labour 31%, Lib Dem 30% and Conservative 6% (don’t knows not excluded, hence the lower figures all round).

Also posted in News and Parliamentary by-elections | Tagged oldham east and saddleworth and survation | 72 Comments

The Independent. It isn’t.

By Stephen Tall | Wed 5th January 2011 - 2:15 pm

‘Lib Dem support hits all-time low’ shouts the front page of the Independent today. It’s a bit of a rum story for two reasons.

First, because it’s not true — though I recognise that’s rarely a reason for a newspaper not to run a story. Those who doubt my word can read Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Blog post, pithily titled: Lib Dem support NOT at all-time low.

And, secondly, because even if it were true it’s not really news — we all know Lib Dem poll ratings have taken a battering. We also all know how fickle have been the opinion polls over the past 12 months. A year ago, many were writing off the Lib Dems’ chances because we were regularly polling below our 2005 general election figure. The came ‘Cleggmania’, and our ratings rocketed — only to subside by polling day itself. And since then they’ve been on a downward trend.

What will be the position by May 2011? No-one really knows. Our opponents and pessimistic supporters will assume we should get used to low ratings; those who are optimists among our ranks will look forward to our ratings increasing.

Continue reading »

Also posted in News | Tagged the independent | 46 Comments

The verdict of Liberal Democrat voters so far

By Mark Pack | Mon 13th December 2010 - 8:55 am

“What annoyed me most was that they had intelligent policies and were not dogmatic, so I thought ‘how could you possibly go into coalition with the Tories?'”

That quote, from a voter in a Liberal Democrat held seat, neatly summarises a view that is both held passionately by many Liberal Democrat voters but also irritates many Liberal Democrat members – for the obvious riposte is, “How can you both say we shouldn’t be dogmatic and also insist we rule out one party regardless of circumstances?”

It comes from a set of focus groups commissioned by Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft, along with two opinion …

Continue reading »

Tagged lord ashcroft | 23 Comments

Which party’s supporters most favour partnership with the French?

By Iain Roberts | Sun 7th November 2010 - 2:55 pm

If you had to guess which political party’s supporters were most in favour of sharing our aircraft carriers and nuclear weapons testing with the French, which would you go for?

According to a YouGov poll a few days ago, those who say they’ll vote for the traditionally internationalist and pro-European Lib Dems are clearly in favour (58-36) but – what’s this?

Even more in favour are Conservative voters, by nearly two to one (it’s 61-34 with 5% don’t knows).

I wrote a few days ago that whether we approve of a policy has far more than we’d like to admit to …

Continue reading »

Also posted in News | 6 Comments

Market Research Society rules that it is ethical to poll about false personal allegations

By Mark Pack | Wed 3rd November 2010 - 8:55 am

The Market Research Standards Board (MRSB) has cleared YouGov of all the complaints made about its polling of 16-19 April during the general election – but in so doing has raised a big question about what now counts as ‘ethical’ polling. The MRSB’s ruling gives the green light to pollsters asking questions on behalf of their clients which contain false allegations about a person, even if those allegations have not previously been made in public.

The Market Research Society Code of Conduct (to which YouGov subscribes, along with other British political pollsters), states that “researchers shall be … honest” and …

Continue reading »

Also posted in News | Tagged charles kennedy, featured, market research society, market research standards board, michael brown, nick clegg and yougov | 6 Comments

New Statesman’s advice to Lib Dem-baiters: “Don’t count those pesky Lib Dems out just yet”

By Stephen Tall | Sat 23rd October 2010 - 12:57 pm

The latest YouGov poll showing the Lib Dems at 10%, one of the party’s worst ratings in years, has excited comment, especially and not surprisingly among those who are pleased to see the Lib Dems struggling. Less surprisingly still, YouGov’s fndings attract more publicity among our critics than ICM’s polls, which show the party consistently at or around the 18% mark.

Credit, therefore, to the New Statesman’s Sholto Byrnes for bringing a quality on scarce display in political commentary: a sense of perspective:

Ever since I entered journalism I have noticed how quick many, if not most, commentators and

…

Continue reading »

Tagged new statesman and sholto byrnes | 117 Comments

Most Read

Op-eds

Why community politics matters (Mark Corner)
A Federal Britain: 1. Renewing democracy through fair representation (Iain Donaldson)
A roadmap to Queer Equality (Tara Foster)
A strange but welcome feeling (Jennie Rigg)
Fifteen years ago today…… (Caron Lindsay)

Advert

Recent Comments

Ruth Bright
Such a heartening Question Time from Jake 👏...
BigTallTim
A very good article Mark....
Daniel Walker
@Tom Bailey "How many voters of Holborn and St Pancras, Lisbon, or Seville voted for Ursula von der Leyen? Answer : None, because 250 million Europeans, neve...
Richard Good
I first met Michael in the Ripon By-Election in the mid seventies when Leeds Bookseller David Austwick won the seat . He was a good friend and adviser when I wa...
Matt (Bristol)
Jenny, the whole thread discusses the opinion of LGBT+ Lib Dems that the party should argue for a new piece of legislation redefining and replacing the GRA as i...