Category Archives: Op-eds

What are the Lib Dems doing about David Davis?

Today David Cameron joined David Davis on the campaign trail in the Haltemprice and Howden by-election in support of Mr Davis’s candidature. Perhaps he did so through slightly gritted teeth – the former Tory shadow home secretary’s resignation put in the spotlight Tory divisions on 42 days just at the point when pressure was piling on Gordon Brown following his ‘non-deal’ with the DUP to secure a wafer-thin Commons victory. But, whatever his private feelings, Mr Cameron did it.

Doubtless he joined him for many reasons – to avoid repeated stories of Tory splits, and because he recognised how popular …

32 Comments

Boris Johnson – two months on

Just days after his May 1st victory, looking out from his 8th floor office across the skyline of our great capital city, Boris Johnson repeated to me his early days mantra – yes, I was elected as a Conservative, but I am now mayor of the whole of London and will govern for the whole of London. Don’t believe what my opponents said, was his message, I’m no rabid right-winger.

Assessing his progress two months on, that clearly remains his desired positioning. It’s significant that his first gaffe – the sacking of deputy chief of staff, James McGrath, over ill-judged (but …

Also posted in London | Tagged and | 9 Comments

A look back at the polls (2/2): what a difference a year makes

To celebrate the beginning of Gordon’s second (and last?) year as Prime Minister, what could be more cheering than to have a look at the parties’ polling averages over the last 12 months? Well, if you’re a Labour supporter, smearing yourself in slurry would probably be more comforting, but never mind:

June 2007 (Tony Blair’s last month in charge)
Tories: 36%, Labour: 36%, Lib Dems: 17%
Tory lead 0%

July 2007 (Gordon Brown’s first full month as PM)
Tories: 34%, Labour: 39%, Lib Dems: 16%
Tory lead -5%

August 2007 (Floods, terrorists and foot-and-mouth)
Tories: 34%, Labour: 39%, Lib Dems: 16%
Tory

Also posted in Polls | 11 Comments

A look back at the polls (1/2): June

We tend not to be too poll-obsessed here at LDV – of course we look at them, as do all other politico-geeks, but viewed in isolation no one poll will tell you very much beyond what you want to read into it. Looked at over a reasonable time-span and, if there are enough polls, you can see some trends.

Here, in chronological order, are the results of the eight polls published in June:

Tories 42%, Labour 26%, Lib Dems 21% – ICM/Sunday Telegraph (8th June)
Tories 45%, Labour 25%, Lib Dems 20% – Populus/Times (10th June)
Tories 45%, Labour 28%, Lib Dems 16% …

Also posted in Polls | 11 Comments

A home for progressives

Writing in today’s Guardian, Nick Clegg said:

showed us that the evaporation of New Labour’s support in southern England – so carefully put together in the 1990s by Tony Blair, Peter Mandelson and Alastair Campbell – is now complete.

So what hope is there left for progressive voters in Britain? Has Cameron’s aversion to spelling out what he would do if he was handed the keys to No 10 done the trick? By avoiding any controversy, any meaningful policy choices, has he done enough to lull progressives into thinking that maybe it won’t be so bad after all to have a

Tagged | 15 Comments

Opinion: The devil is in the detail

On the whole, Lib Dems can probably be broadly satisfied with our current performance. The latest poll I’ve seen (from ComRes in the Independent) puts us on 18% – so, despite a significant Tory revival, we have not been squeezed.

One might reasonably argue that we should have done better out of Labour’s current demise, but my suspicion is that things will tighten as the general election comes closer, and Nick Clegg – who impresses me more and more – gets the greater media attention he deserves.

But that’s a pretty passive approach. How could the party be more …

Also posted in Parliamentary by-elections | Tagged | 5 Comments

Opinion: Social mobility – we can make a difference

Last week’s Liberal Democrat News carried the following article from Martin Narey:

The UK is the fifth richest nation on Earth, yet it has one of the highest rates of child poverty in the industrialised world. Labour has made some commendable progress in reducing the truly shocking level of child poverty they inherited in 1997.

But even after allowing for the implementation of Budget measures for which investment has been found, they find themselves a million adrift from their ambition to halve child poverty by 2010.

Poverty can have a profound impact on a child, on his or her family, and the rest of society. It often sets in motion a deepening spiral of social exclusion, contributing to problems in education, employment, mental and physical health and social interaction. But what should really make child poverty alarm us all is the disturbing fact that a child born into deprivation seems now more likely to inherit his or her parents’ disadvantage than at any time in our recent past.

Also posted in Party policy and internal matters | 10 Comments

But Mr Gladstone, are you local enough?

It would appear that the ‘local’ credentials of the candidates proved to be something of a talking-point in the recent Henley by-election.

Certainly, in Crewe & Nantwich it was a constant theme in the election literature. The Conservatives went so far as to claim that their man was “the only local candidate” – despite the fact that he lived further from the constituency than his Lib Dem rival, and that one of the ‘fringe’ candidates had lived all his life in Crewe! But, as a rather more experienced campaigner put it to me – with a shrug of his …

Also posted in Parliamentary by-elections | 18 Comments

What does Henley mean for the Lib Dems?

“A bit disappointed” probably sums up the reaction of most Lib Dems on hearing the result from Henley. But it’s a response that deserves some cool, detached analysis – because the underlying message from Henley is more complex than either Lib Dems who throw up in their hands in despair, or Tories who bray in triumph, are currently admitting.

Reasons to be disappointed:

Well, they’re fairly obvious:

1. The party put in a big effort, fought a vigorous campaign, and had an excellent candidate in Stephen Kearney. We wanted to win – though, realistically, a 15% swing against the Tories in the current …

Also posted in Parliamentary by-elections | Tagged | 41 Comments

Smithson’s view: So what’s the betting on Henley?

Sometimes I get criticism from Lib Dem activists over the way I operate my site, Politicalbetting.com, and the usual complaint is that I am not operating it in the interests of the party.

Well, I don’t run it to further the Lib Dems or any other faction. It’s moved to its position as the UK’s most-read political website (four times the page down-loads of Iain Dale) because it seeks to provide a dispassionate information service and discussion platform for those who like forecasting and betting on political outcomes.

Occasionally party campaigners have found it useful to …

Also posted in Parliamentary by-elections | Tagged and | 32 Comments

What do you do with a problem like Gordon?

One year on, and Gordon Brown and the Labour party are in a mess. The PM’s popularity – and self-confidence – plummeted after he bottled out of calling a general election last October, since when Labour’s ratings have drifted downwards: they have been above 29% in only one poll out of 15 conducted in the last two months.

Some will say this is inevitable, that what is happening to Labour after Tony Blair is not so different to what happened to the Tories after Margaret Thatcher’s demise: as political giants depart the stage their shadows continue to dominate the stage. Both …

6 Comments

Opinion: The next steps for the EU

After months of parliamentary wrangling, the Lisbon Treaty was approved by the UK Parliament this week. This is despite Irish voters voting no by a margin of 53% to 47%. Ireland was the only country in Europe to have a referendum, despite a vigorous campaign here in Britain, which included a private referendum in ten Labour and Liberal Democrat-held constituencies – though not, suspiciously, in Ken Clarke’s constituency despite him voting for the Lisbon Treaty – and is still ongoing thanks to Stuart Wheeler. The fact that it was defeated by such a wide margin, and on such a high …

Also posted in Europe / International | 4 Comments

Opinion: Magna culpa

The next person to mention in my presence: Magna Carta, Habeas Corpus, or the “insidious, surreptitious and relentless erosion of fundamental British freedoms,” is surely going to regret it. I have never been more heartily sick and tired of the whole “civil liberties” industry following last week’s events where, after an admittedly unwelcome measure was passed in the House of Commons, a Conservative frontbencher with whom we have virtually nothing in common went off on some vain flight of fancy, and it was somehow deemed inappropriate for Liberal Democrats to oppose him.

Starting from a position of puzzlement over the extent to which civil liberties seem to dominate political discourse, I have now come to see the whole charade as an excuse on the part of self-indulgent and out-of-touch politicians for not talking about the issues that really matter to the electorate. To the ordinary man and woman in the street, freedom is paramount – but it is a freedom which has nothing whatsoever to do with detention without charge, ID cards, CCTV, or any of the other oppressive instruments of the big-brother police state (which doesn’t exist by the way).

The sense in which many people find their freedoms curtailed on an everyday basis is that they are obliged to work long hours each day, maybe with a difficult or cynical employer. That higher food and fuel bills are starting to hurt their ability to hold body and soul together. That they increasingly find themselves facing impossible decisions balancing work, life, and family. What they are less concerned about, I would suggest, is the prospect of being arrested and imprisoned for 42 days without charge, especially if they have done nothing wrong. In fact if they saw a policeman on their patch at all, they might be pleasantly surprised.

But no, to a certain breed of dull-witted politician, Magna Carta is what it’s all about. The level of unthinking inertia is such that they forget – as they drone on about “hard-won freedoms” and “slippery slopes” – that today’s technological era hardly bears comparison with anything that happened in the previous century, never mind in another age altogether. And they don’t come much more unimaginative than the member for Haltemprice and Howden who has now embarked at considerable public expense upon a political stunt that, when the dust has settled, will prove precisely nothing.

Of all the lazy and incoherent things that have been said regarding the forthcoming contest, the most absurd is this notion that we may declare the by-election to be fought over the sole issue of 42 days detention without charge.

Tagged | 135 Comments

David Davis: Why I think Clegg called it right (just about)

Who’d be leader of a political party?

For the last few days, debate has been raging in Lib Dem circles about the decision of Nick Clegg not to stand a Liberal Democrat candidate against David Davis in the forthcoming Haltemprice and Howden by-election.

For some party members, Nick’s decision is utterly mystifying, and they have a number of pretty compelling arguments at their disposal:

* David Davis is no liberal;
* Haltemprice and Howden is a fairly marginal seat and it’s suicidal not to compete there;
* by not standing we risk being …

34 Comments

Opinion: Blue Skies Thinking

There is a section in Douglas Adams’ great work Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy, where the residents of earth decide they have had enough of consultants, public relations men, telephone sanitizers and other non-productive sorts. They send them out into space in a specially selected spacecraft for VIPs, claiming the planet is about to be consumed by a huge, inter-galactic goat.

My pre-dilection is to fill the craft with London think tanks (with a few honourable reprieves). Why?

Because they are collectively responsible for the sheer absence of radical thinking in British politics, the explanation of why party manifestos, rhetoric and …

17 Comments

Why the EU is losing the argument

It’s no use blaming the Irish. If it hadn’t been they who rejected the Lisbon Treaty it would likely have been any number of other European countries if their leaders had had the guts to ask the people what they thought. The fact – which surely must now be universally acknowledged and faced up to – is that the people of Europe now no longer trust the European Union.

There are doubtless many reasons for this – a rejection of globalisation, a ‘politics of contentment’, the remoteness of Brussels, the perfidy of nationalistic media, gross failures within the EU. But I …

Also posted in Europe / International | 52 Comments

Opinion: Why we should stand against David Davis

It is no secret to any regular reader of the comments on these pages that I am bitterly disappointed by the decision that the Liberal Democrats will not be standing against David Davis in the upcoming by-election in Haltemprice & Howden. Often in the heat of debate points get lost and come out half-formed and therefore I think it is worth taking the time to step-back a little.

Whatever we may think of the decision Davis took and its motivations some fundamental points need to be made against the position put forward by the leadership. Simon Hughes says in his …

Also posted in Parliamentary by-elections | Tagged | 58 Comments

What does the Irish “No” vote mean for Europe?

No pro-European can be happy with the Irish “No” vote.

It leaves a huge question mark over the future of the Lisbon Treaty – and coupled with the past “No” votes in France and the Netherlands for the more radical Constitutional Treaty, suggests a continuing inability to marshall our arguments successfully against the diatribes of populist misrepresentation of “No” campaigners.

Can Lisbon be rescued? Only the Irish Government can answer that question – but they should be asked to answer it sooner rather than later. The usual diplomatic practice of playing the long game, letting the dust settle and negotiating …

Also posted in Europe / International | 66 Comments

Chris Huhne writes… 42 days is not the answer to terrorism

We have won the argument against extending the period in which suspects can be detained without charge. The only question now is whether we win today’s vote.

My guess is that it will be close, but that we will win thanks to some courageous Labour rebel MPs who are resisting the 21st century equivalent of the thumbscrew, an early morning call from Gordon Brown. A key factor will be whether the Democratic Unionist party succumb to bribes or not, but their opposition to internment in the past shows that they are more principled than some suggest.

Let’s take the Government’s case …

Also posted in Parliament | 17 Comments

Beating Labour and the Diversity Agenda

The recent London elections made it very clear that, if the Lib Dems are to avoid becoming the victims of a mighty squeeze at the next general election, we are going to have to do more to engage with disenfranchised Labour supporters, and worry less about trying to take seats off the resurgent Tories.

Although we have scored notable successes against Labour (Hornsey, Brent, Manchester Withington, etc.) in recent years, they have not been of the number or scale of our victories over the Tories in the latter part of the 1990s.

This means that we need to adopt a …

24 Comments

Opinion: Votes at 16

Labour’s Julie Morgan MP had a brave attempt to introduce a Private Members Bill to lower the voting age to 16 talked out by Conservative MPs on Friday. Her Bill was a cross party effort backed by Jo Swinson among others. Regrettably, there were not enough supportive MPs present to force a closure vote (100 are needed) and this is partly down to the lack of Liberal Democrats in Parliament that day.

I was one of those who set up the Votes at 16 Campaign back in 2002, bringing together a wide range of supportive groups including the UK Youth Parliament, British Youth Council, Barnardos and YMCA. There are a total of more than 30 different groups and many thousands of individual supporters who back the campaign.

From the start, we faced quite a mountain of opposition. Much of it was genuinely focussed on the issue, but there was also a fair amount that was based on irrational prejudice and most of this comes from the Conservatives.

It is fair enough to ask whether young people at 16 are ready to vote and whether those that choose to exercise such a right are capable of doing so with the minimum of reliance on celebrity endorsement and pressure from family members. I would argue that the majority are fully capable – much more capable than 18 year olds were just a few years ago. A compulsory part of the national curriculum in all parts of the UK is now citizenship education (although it is delivered with varying quality). So young people are encouraged to debate issues that matter to them with their peers. They are also meant to understand what each of the parties stands for and how elections work. I would argue that there is no better time to engage them than immediately after this compulsory learning ends.

Also posted in Parliament | Tagged | 8 Comments

Nick Clegg: “Long live the pound”

OK, I admit it, I have misquoted Nick’s speech to the LibDem City Forum last month – but not by much. This was the most Euro sceptic speech by a LibDem leader in living memory.

Let me quote him precisely: “the UK is enjoying the benefit of currency flexibility and the devaluation of the pound against the Euro is giving a stimulus to manufacturing.” Doesn’t sound like someone who wants to join the single currency, does it? He acknowledges that things may change, but he doesn’t exactly go out of his way to make it sound likely: “conditions may …

Also posted in Europe / International | 11 Comments

Liberalise or die!

The June edition of Prospect magazine includes an article titled Liberalise or Die by Richard Reeves and Philip Collins (no, not that Phil Collins).

The authors argue that the Labour Party must abandon its centralising Fabian tradition and become liberal. No mention of the fact that a perfectly acceptable liberal party already exists.

The article has already earned an angry reposte from John Harris in Monday’s Guardian.

Well, chaps, what do we think?

29 Comments

Opinion: The Charge of the Lib Dem Brigade

There’s a by-election! Chaaaaarge! This pretty much sums up Lib Dem strategy in Crewe… or is it tactics masking as strategy? And if there are any voices in the party who think our blind rush to by-elections is as mad as the Charge of the Light Brigade, I have news for you. It’s the only strategy we have.

Tactical voting is our ‘strategy’ even if the circumstances don’t suit it – for example, if we are third in polling data and the main strong challenger is not us! In Crewe our message was, err… ‘Vote for us because we can….ummm……win’. After we came third, our main pronouncements were, in effect, ‘Hooray, Labour got a pasting because it increased taxes on the poor,’ and, at the same time, ‘People voted Tory as a protest but they don’t want a Tory government’. To describe this as unclear for the public and limp as a position (whether deliberate or not) would be euphemistic.

What’s worse is… well… let me put this as a question: what percentage of the voting public now identifies us with which policies? That is a more important question than what our main ‘headline’ policies actually are.

Tactical voting as an approach can help us in some circumstances, even in a general election, but it has come to dominate. Some might say it filled a nearly-empty space. Blind Charges of the Lib Dem Brigade need to be stopped, however. This will force us to face an uncomfortable truth. At the root of the ‘strategy deficit’ are the fragmented policy development and implementation processes across the party. By this I mean the actual, not theoretical, system.

Also posted in Party policy and internal matters | 42 Comments

A look back at the polls: May

We tend not to be too poll-obsessed here at LDV – of course we look at them, as do all other politico-geeks, but viewed in isolation no one poll will tell you very much beyond what you want to read into it. Looked at over a reasonable time-span and, if there are enough polls, you can see some trends.

Here, in chronological order, are the results of the most recent six polls since our last round-up on 30th April:

Tories 40%, Labour 29%, Lib Dems 19% – Populus/Times (7th May)
Tories 49%, Labour 23%, Lib Dems 17% – YouGov/The Sun (9th May)
Tories …

Also posted in Polls | 21 Comments

Opinion: A Toast To Protest

Boris Johnson’s first act as Mayor of London was to ban the consumption of alcohol, and the carrying of open receptacles of it, on public transport. I have already outlined the case against in full over at my own blog, but to recap briefly…

Boris’ ban is essentially petty authoritarianism. Considering the wealth of existing legislation that criminalizes anything that infringes the rights of others on public transport, all this measure will do is criminalize those who keep themselves to themselves but wish, for whatever reason (and I can think of plenty), to drink on public transport. Boris says the ban will cut down on so-called ‘minor crime’, when it seems to me it will do quite the reverse, criminalizing otherwise law-abiding citizens.

I urge you to join me in protesting against this illiberal ban by donning your evening-wear, breaking out the liqueurs, and exercising your right to drink on the tube one last time this Saturday. On this Sunday, 1st June, the carriage turns back into a pumpkin as the ban comes into force. Therefore, the drinking will go on until midnight. There are a number of different events going on, most organised on Facebook; it looks like turnout could be anywhere between 5,000-10,000 combined, from all the different events.

The main ones can be found here, here, here, here, and here. The official website is here. Sunny Hundal of Liberal Conspiracy is also organising something, so you could always join him. Alternatively, you could follow these paragons of harmless eccentricity, and have a dinner party on the tube.

Most of the events kick off at Liverpool Street Station, so there’s likely to be a significant police presence there. If you want to avoid it, I’d recommend getting on at a later stop on the Circle Line such as Tower Hill or Monument.

Also posted in London | Tagged and | 116 Comments

Opinion: Winning where?

For me, last week’s Crewe and Nantwich by-election was a disaster. Not a disaster for our candidate, Elizabeth Shenton – who achieved a good showing on difficult ground – but a disaster for the party’s integrity.

I speak of the Lib Dems’ ‘Winning Here’ spin. Whilst I realise that it was important for us to maintain our share of the vote, and for Nick Clegg and the party to get behind our candidate, saying that we are going to win the seat, when we were clearly never going to come close, smacks at best of a level of rose tinted unreality that makes us look like grinning fools, and at worst a total lack of respect for the voters’ intelligence.

Also posted in Parliamentary by-elections | Tagged | 25 Comments

County Council Elections 2009: Let’s stop this electoral manipulation now!

I like to think I’m a patient man. When you’ve been a Liberal / Liberal Democrat for 35 years you have to be.

But if there is one thing that makes my blood boil, it’s the constant interference of this Government with the electoral process. After 11 years of Labour interference in our democratic fabric, we have a plethora of postal vote scandals and overlapping legislation which manifestly fails to prevent a pattern of defamatory statements and nasty, negative campaigning. Yes, and different voting systems across the country.

Now, the powers that be, in this case the Department for Communities and Local Government, are putting out a consultation paper entitled ‘Moving the date of English Local Government elections to the date of the European Parliament elections in 2009’. This paper is launching a consultation (Labourspeak for: we’ve already decided, but let’s go through the motions…) and says:

This consultation seeks, in particular, views of councils and other stakeholders on where the balance of advantage lies – holding the local and European elections on the same day or on different days four weeks apart. The results of this consultation will help us reach a decision as to whether or not the 2009 local elections should be moved.”

Some people might think this is logical enough. After all, the elections are only four weeks apart, and some civil servant with a preference for neatness has decided that these two could easily grouped together, especially now there is little risk of Gordon calling an election before 2010.

But I think this should be opposed, root and branch.

The local elections which risk being delayed in 2009 are mostly the County Council elections. The County Council elections for 2005 were held on the same day as the General Election. As they were in 2001 and in 1997. This means that electors in these areas have not had an election to these important local authorities where the issues could be discussed, unclouded by other elections, since 1993!

And now the Government wants to merge the 2009 elections with those to the European Parliament, so instead of debating issues like Education, Social Services, Regional Planning, Local Transport and the Environment we will be swallowed up by the endless inane debate between the Euro-idiots on one side and the Euro-fanatics on the other.

There are also brand new unitaries whose first election risks being about straighter bananas rather than the issues facing their communities for the following four years.

So, if you live in any of these areas, protest now. Make sure your local party, Lib Dem, Labour or Conservative is campaigning against this, Make sure your councillors on these authorities are demanding a real, fair say for residents. Write to your local papers. Anything. But let’s not accept another Government manipulation of local democracy.

Let’s be allowed to campaign, discuss and have our say about the important issues covered by these important authorities – for the first time since 1993. Or are we going to have to wait until 2013, twenty years, before we can have a real debate? A real election?

These are the authorities affected:

Also posted in Local government | 28 Comments

Why Liberal Democrats should change their tune on elected mayors

There is something double-edged about being an elected mayor in the Liberal Democrats. At one level it has involved being a bit of a mini-celebrity within the party and I have been touched by the pleasure which colleagues across the country show in our success in Watford. Yet, I’m always aware that I hold a post that many Lib Dems believe should not exist and would strongly resist being adopted in their own area.

Liberals are rightly suspicious of the cult of personality and fearful of conferring too much power in one person’s hands. There may have been an element of self-interest too. Traditionally, Lib Dems built up their presence on councils by strict targeting, but could not hope to fight an election across a whole local authority area.

I want to suggest that colleagues should think again. For me, elected mayors are the key to achieving decentralisation of power – a Liberal goal that remains as elusive as ever, despite the government paying lip-service to the idea of localism.

Also posted in Local government | 25 Comments

Lessons from May’s elections

To start, three pieces of promising news: in six of the last seven annual rounds of local elections, the number of Liberal Democrat councillors has gone up. Secondly, the change in our vote in Crewe & Nantwich was pretty much the same as in Dudley West, South East Staffordshire and Wirral South – the three big Labour gains from the Conservatives in the run-up to 1997 – a general election at which we then made huge gains in the numbers of MPs we had.

Add in to that the steady but very clear improvement in our poll ratings since Nick Clegg became leader, and there’s plenty of cause for quiet optimism about our electoral prospects – provded we put in the hard work necessary.

But we shouldn’t be complacent that just any sort of hard work will deliver the right results, and there are two signs in that news that we need, in particular, to broaden our strength across the country.

Tagged and | 44 Comments
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